US economy - The media says we shouldn't be afraid

[Paulinerims]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

[yoseph]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

I am seeing the very opposie on my social media timelines because stocks seems to be plunging on the daily basis, Maybe it is some Liberal aganeda against President Trump or maybe it's because of the Trade War he himself initiated against the Chinese that has brought this about but it still seems that it's very early to start calling this a reccesion.

[avikz]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

A story always has two sides. US mainstream media is showing only one side of it. If you want to know the other side of the story, you need to look at 4 major economic indicators namely,

1. GDP
2. Consumer price index
3. Employment indicators
4. Manufacturing index etc.

While the GDP is doing just fine as of now, look at the manufacturing index in the below link,

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-06-03/u-s-manufacturing-index-dips-to-lowest-level-in-almost-a-decade

Employment index is also showing good growth and unemployment is decreasing slowly but steadily. See below link,

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

Consumer price index is recording double digit numbers and beating inflation means, the purchasing power of USD is on a decline. See the link below,

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-price-index-cpi

Conclusion: I am not an expert in economics but it is certain that the current status is not really showing a great picture. No one knows if we will see another depression but it is better to refrain from making big investments in US market.

Personal tip: Data will become the biggest commodity in next 5-10 years of time. Invest in such companies who controlls data of the masses. That may be beneficial for the future!

[Pab]

If we look historic data then after that kind inversion what we had last days stocks were pumping from 8% to 20% then fail
Last OECD data are showing that slowdown in global economy is maybe not over but much lower than before
So it may suggest that worst is over
But we have still trade war on horizon Brexit and  many unexpected events
Now stocks count on rates cut and stimuls
Powell will have his speech Friday so that is something to watch

[mnsx]

The media is right so far.
I see that the average payrate in the US is about 5100 USD gross which is well above the average payrate in Europe or elsewhere.
As long as these stats are true I would not be afraid at all even to invest in the tech giants.

[silversurfer1958]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

In order to determine when to buy, you need to learn about TA and FA. These are essential knowledge for you to evaluate whether a stock is good or not, whether it is worth buying now or not.
But according to what I analyze, I realize the stock market is better to invest now.
The US economy will continue to grow strongly when the Fed reduces interest rates in the next period.

[breathlessz]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

In order to determine when to buy, you need to learn about TA and FA. These are essential knowledge for you to evaluate whether a stock is good or not, whether it is worth buying now or not.
But according to what I analyze, I realize the stock market is better to invest now.
The US economy will continue to grow strongly when the Fed reduces interest rates in the next period.

with the interest rate reduction by the Fed will arouse the market surge, investors will arrive with fresh funds, and ultimately the American economy will improve. therefore it is very suitable to buy now with a relatively cheap price and good potential for the future

[RealMalatesta]

Please forget those ones that are just making noise on recession as if recession is something that has to follow cycle, in this growing world with lots of technology advancement, I think that by now, we should not be having that mentality that if something once happened, it has to repeat itself again.

I was discussing with some of my friend that said recession will happen soon, and they even mentioned that it would be next year like they have some sort of toll like weather forecast to know that it will happen because it is bound to happen. We might have the signs of recession, and the moment that there is sign, the first thing the government of that nation would do is to first put all measures in place to guard against it, it is only when countries that fold  their arms till they see it happen before trying to fix it.

[ololajulo]

The fear from the angle of USA is coming from their disposition to the world economy, trade war with china and the rest, weak hands of allies most especially in Europe. I dont know why any one will believe the media at this point who had been arch-enemy of Trump's government but the contrasting view of economic experts is disturbing, however, The president gave his assurance on a storm-less sail.

[deisik]

Consumer price index is recording double digit numbers and beating inflation means, the purchasing power of USD is on a decline

Disclaimer: I don't live in the US

So I can't really judge or figure out what's actually happening there to draw any definitive or reliable conclusion. With that said, though, I have to note the following. Consumer price index is one of a few metrics used to measure inflation, so it is a marker of inflation in its own right. Another question is whether official inflation rates follow this index as there may be some lags (apart from deliberate distortion or manipulation of statistics, of course)

And while rising inflation rates do imply that the dollar is losing its purchasing power, there are two things to keep in mind and watch for regarding inflation. First, you should keep track of the other major currencies, so it may well be that the dollar is losing its value slower than other currencies on the block (which is the case). And while we are at it, this is what USDX index shows, namely, that the dollar is still quite strong, alive and kicking

Further, even if the dollar depreciates (which is kind of a given for any fiat currency out there), it doesn't necessarily follow that the US economy goes downhill or American citizens become poorer. More specifically, you should also look at the wages rates and their change over time. The point is, if they grow faster or on par with inflation, people may in fact be better off on average even with a cheap dollar (given decreasing unemployment rates)

[mu_enrico]

Disclaimer: I don't live in the US

The US economy is widely studied, sometimes scholars outside the country have more information/knowledge about the US economy

It's always difficult to predict when will be the next recession since too many variables/predictor to be taken into account. If you like charts, you might want to read this blog post: https://sentimentrader.com/blog/why-recession-risk-is-more-bark-than-bitefor-now/

However, if we go with the basic Austrian principle:
- low interest: yes;
- bubbles: yes;
- malinvestments: yes.

I think there is nothing wrong with a small hedge in this situation. Also, don't trust, verify

[Febo]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

Media covered both sides. There are sighs that show there should be a recession soon but situation is different as in all previous cases. I dont know what media you are watch/listed/read, but my media covered it well.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

The situation in the US is pretty good right now--I don't know about the rest of the world, though.  What worries me is that the stock market has been on a bull run for over a decade now, and we all know that can't last forever.  The market is a mirror of the economy, however, and until the economy starts showing concrete signs of trouble, I'd feel comfortable investing in stocks as long as they're not overvalued.  

Big tech firms?  I wouldn't touch those, but that's just me.  Nor would I invest in any social media stocks, regardless of how hot they are.

with the interest rate reduction by the Fed will arouse the market surge, investors will arrive with fresh funds, and ultimately the American economy will improve.

Eh, yeah.  That's only a temporary shot of adrenaline.  What happens when interest rates rise (which they will eventually)?  No more cheap money means fewer investors trading with extreme leverage.  That could be a shock to the system.

[shield132]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

In reality we should be afraid of economy situation in near future because if we look it logically, this nonstop money printing and etc is very bad for economy, it will cause inflation but on another hand the reason USA says such statements is to keep positive feelings among people, it really has huge effect on economy. When there is inflation but people are positive and there is no panic, it reduces side effects of whole bad process.

[carter34]

the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

About the stock market, I think is been stable lately and usually, it is better for a drop to happen in buying and selling before another phase of trade continues. So, I think I would wait to buy when price comes down a little for faster and bigger profit.

[Kemarit]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

Those guys are doing some PR damage control, but the genie is already out of the lamp. We have seen that US economy is slumping so it's just a matter of time before recession goes full blown. The stock market is quite stable and we can even call it bullish, but what happens when the bubble burst?  And the China-US trade war is going to have its effect to the economy, globally. I'm not sure about the US unemployment rate though, this is very critical, Trump promise more jobs, it he can't maintain it, then this will cause another problem for his administration.

[1Referee]

When there is inflation but people are positive and there is no panic, it reduces side effects of whole bad process.

I think there not being much panic amongst the average joes is purely result of their ignorance in the economics field. Historically, average joes have always been a victim of recessions and toxic monetary policies. I do not expect them to actually acknowledge how bad the situation is until it actually turns bad and they feel it in their pocket.

It's important to keep in mind that with so much (debt) money being pumped into the different markets, it may take a while for things to go wrong. It's basically an attempt to buy time, but with each attempt to buy time the actual implosion will hurt even more. It's not a matter of if, but when. That's the million/billion dollar question.

[ethereumhunter]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

For now, yes, the stock market is stable, but we don't know how it will be in the future. It is worth to invest in big tech firms, but as far as I know, if we want to invest with them, we need to have a lot of money, but maybe I'm wrong because I don't invest in a stock. The stability will not stay forever, there will be a time for the economy to change to better, and that will impact every stock in the market.

As I don't know what is happening in the US, I only know that the US is a big country that is still growing and they want to be bigger country than before by developing many technologies so it will help our life to better than now.

[audaciousbeing]

There was a lot of talk about recession in the last days and the media responded with analytics that shows that the US economy is still growing. For example in their output, employment rate and so on..
the stock market is stable for now but what do you think? Is it worth it to invest in big tech firms now or should we wait a year for a possible slump if recession really hit?

For a start, the talk of recession is only made possible to the high point by the media because when someone expresses concern about the economy, he can only reach few people within his/her circle but when the media is involved, it becomes a national phenomenon. So if some section of the media are now trying to divert attention away from that or seems to downplay it, then it make sense to want to listen to it.

For you to even know about it before happening shows the media in your country are very resilience. In some other countries, its the effect of recession that would show the pointer for the government and its people in general to know they are in recession. So the way is not to start figuring out whether its going to happen or not, its about being prepared for it which is what you should be doing.

[MonsterV]

Maybe at this time the US economy is growing but the US economy is still likely to decline and experience a recession in the next year. For me, I will invest in gold because gold is less likely to be affected by the impact of this global recession. Just look at the US-China trade war yesterday, gold prices skyrocketed.

Another thing that makes me believe that a recession will occur is my suspicion of Trump's words to make peace with China. I am sure that the US has failed in the trade war this time, they have created their own boomerang. Well the global recession is still very high for me and I will try to invest in a safer market.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/world/asia/donald-trump-hong-kong.html