What's your gambling system?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Thanks for the compliment, however
Guaranteed loss is an overstatement I think. It depends on how many rolls and your target return.

I didn't mean to be rude:) Most of the systems presented here was much worse than martingale.
I still have code for your system. I can compare it with martingale in various simulations (like 10% target, portfolio = 100x intial bet etc.)
Just let me know what parameter would you like to see.

Code:

porfolio =
target = 
number of test=

I think that fibbonaci martingale will alwais loose with regular martingale.

This result was not telling the whole picture, such as how many of it would get busted (0 balance).

Perhaps 73% of "original" martingale users would get home with an empty pocket, while only a few of Fibonacci progression users got busted.

Fibonacci progression lowers the risk and obviously lowers the return as well.

By the way, congratulations on your newborn baby! Less gambling, more buying milk!

This program works like that:

1- start with initial portfolio and play with system:
a - portfolio doubled -> win = win +1
b- portfolio zeroed -> break;
simulation for 1 gambler has ended
repeat for 10 000- 100 000 gamblers

So when you see 10 000 gamblers and none of them was able to double it means that they all zero their portfolio because there is no other way to stop the loop in program (zero or double).

Regular martingale system is like - you profit until you hit killing strike. Gambler who win is the one who was lucky enough to not hit killing strike before doubling portfolio
Fibonacci martingale is like - you are constantly decreasing your portfolio because you are loosing more than you are winning. Gambler who beat casino is the one who had (f.e) 9000 wins out of 10000 from first 10000 bets. - was lucky enough to be the farthest from statistic distribution.
So it's not quite that you are loosing less with Fibonacci. It's like your porfoplio is going down and down untill you are doomed after xxx bets.

[1714680017]

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[1714680017]

1714680017

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Ok. I've found some time and I've decided to come back to this thread. OP updated - we have 7 martingale simulations. I'm open for more. Do you have any gambling system that you want to test long-term? Bring it here. It does not need to be martingale variation. I'll do my best to code any simulation.

[Haunebu]

Just found this particular variation of Martingale through Youtube(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPO_fWa_27g&t=1086s) and would like to see whether it is more effective.

Strategy:

1. We aim to gain 1 unit and restart. Pattern: 1 1 1(If win, restart this pattern)
2. If we lose, we follow this pattern : 2 2 2(If win, go back to level 1).
3. If we lose, we follow the pattern : 4 4 4(If win, go back to level 2).
etc etc.

Basically, this martingale strategy helps you wager more over a longer period of time, but depends on 2 or more consecutive win streaks.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Pattern: 1 1 1(If win, restart this pattern)

I'll code it for you but i need you to clarify me one thing.

What does that 1 1 1 mean? 3 bets with 1 unit each bet? "If win, restart this pattern" -> how many bets out of this 3 bets has be won to call this a "winning pattern" and reset to 1 unit?

[Haunebu]

What does that 1 1 1 mean? 3 bets with 1 unit each bet? "If win, restart this pattern" -> how many bets out of this 3 bets has be won to call this a "winning pattern" and reset to 1 unit?

1. Bet with 1 unit initially. If you win, restart.
2. If you lose, follow the 1 1 1 pattern which means bet again with 1 unit. If you win, bet again with 1 unit. If you win, restart the pattern.
3. Basically, you aim to win 1 unit like Oscar's grind and restart.
4. In 1 1 1, if you win the 1st bet, you immediately restart. If you don't, you need to win the remaining 2(1 unit bets) in order to restart.
5. If not, you go to the next level to 2 2 2(Follow same process like above) to recover your losses. The youtube link that I shared provides more information in detail.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

1. Bet with 1 unit initially. If you win, restart.
2. If you lose, follow the 1 1 1 pattern which means bet again with 1 unit. If you win, bet again with 1 unit. If you win, restart the pattern.
3. Basically, you aim to win 1 unit like Oscar's grind and restart.
4. In 1 1 1, if you win the 1st bet, you immediately restart. If you don't, you need to win the remaining 2(1 unit bets) in order to restart.
5. If not, you go to the next level to 2 2 2(Follow same process like above) to recover your losses. The youtube link that I shared provides more information in detail.

Ok I get it. Very interesting martingale variation but from potability point of view its the same as regular one but i'm not 100% sure. It will be my pleasure to test it. I'll do it in free time.

edit: just deleted 2 off-topic posts. Guys this is not "spam whatever thread". Do not post things like "i like to gamble" or "i like provably fair system". I'll delete them to keep this thread clean.

[Lucasgabd]

<...>

that's a really interesting post.
would be lovely to see a spreadsheet comparring win rates between different strategies.

but trust me:
if you find a way that the casino don't have an edge they'll figure it out at some point and change the system.

even if you win, the true winner is always the house.

[Haunebu]

Ok I get it. Very interesting martingale variation but from potability point of view its the same as regular one but i'm not 100% sure. It will be my pleasure to test it. I'll do it in free time.

Will be waiting to see the results of your simulation. I have personally tested this method and I have been successful for sometime now though I never played too long since winning 1 unit at a time tests your patience.

but trust me:
if you find a way that the casino don't have an edge they'll figure it out at some point and change the system.

even if you win, the true winner is always the house.

This is obvious, but we are simply testing systems to profit and have fun in the short term since the house always wins in the long term. Using systems is better than gambling randomly in my opinion primarily for the sake of fun.

[BALIK]

Personally, when I'm playing Dice I use a very specific version of the Martingale strategy which basically increases the bet by 1/10th for every loss
For example, I'll set the bet at the minimum bet amount, and then set the bet multiplier to 90% and then run it to increment the bet by 10% if it loses.

After that, I'll set the autobet to stop playing once it reaches 200% of the win amount. The next day I'll start at 2x the minimum bet and repeat the system.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

would be lovely to see a spreadsheet comparring win rates between different strategies.

Every single system despite "triple bet after loss instead of double" was worse than regular martingale and literally every system was worse than single bet system (all your wallet in 1 bet. Double or go home broken). So i don't see a reason to use them/rank then in spreadsheet. They are all worthless.

As Haunebu said. Using systems will only boost your fun factor if you like it.

Using systems is better than gambling randomly in my opinion primarily for the sake of fun.

[Lucasgabd]

would be lovely to see a spreadsheet comparring win rates between different strategies.

Every single system despite "triple bet after loss instead of double" was worse than regular martingale and literally every system was worse than single bet system (all your wallet in 1 bet. Double or go home broken). So i don't see a reason to use them/rank then in spreadsheet. They are all worthless.

As Haunebu said. Using systems will only boost your fun factor if you like it.

Using systems is better than gambling randomly in my opinion primarily for the sake of fun.

makes sense
so is it a consensus that triple bet should be the new martingale?

so interesting how simmilar risk management is in trading and in gambling
even being different and trading having the need of more skill than gamblers, risk management could be applied to both, starting from the basics of never investing more than you're ok with losing to more advanced concepts.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

makes sense
so is it a consensus that triple bet should be the new martingale?

so interesting how simmilar risk management is in trading and in gambling
even being different and trading having the need of more skill than gamblers, risk management could be applied to both, starting from the basics of never investing more than you're ok with losing to more advanced concepts.

We are going a little off topic but i'll leave it here since I couldn't agree more. The only think that I would like to add is that it does not apply to every game. Only poker and other player vs player games. Not player vs casino where one site has statistical advantage over another.

I even created this thread in which I encourage playing poker to train skill that are necessary in trading.

Personally, when I'm playing Dice I use a very specific version of the Martingale strategy which basically increases the bet by 1/10th for every loss
For example, I'll set the bet at the minimum bet amount, and then set the bet multiplier to 90% and then run it to increment the bet by 10% if it loses.

After that, I'll set the autobet to stop playing once it reaches 200% of the win amount. The next day I'll start at 2x the minimum bet and repeat the system.

I think i have simulated similar variation somewhere. It has horrible output. I'll find it in free time.


Todo list:
Haunebu Martingale variation

[akirasendo17]

My style in gambling is simple, when I bet and lost, I try to see the pattern of the winning in a certain game, then from that my sequence is when I bet and when I tey to bet lower from what I bet and when, then when I lost try to bet higher but monitor first with pattern again, because every game have pattern you just have to look closely, its just there waiting to be unlock

[Yatsan]

Mine is (Martingale double bet after loss) I am doing it in dice site which is primedice, my strategy is simple. Since you can bet there even with no balance, I will bet "0" until I reach the four consecutive loses and after that I will going to start now the Martingale strategy. After I win I will reset the sequence again and wait until I reach four consecutive loses again with "0" bet.

To summarize here is the process:

• Bet 0 satoshi
• Wait until you reach 4 consecutive loses
• Bet now using your prefer base bet
• Double the best until you win
• After you win, reset the bet to 0 and wait for four consecutive losses again

Patience is the key on using this strategy and it works on me! If you want to be extra cautious, you can wait until you reach five consecutive loses (it takes time to get through that stage), after that start your base bet. I hope this works for anyone that is going to try this.  

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Mine is (Martingale double bet after loss) I am doing it in dice site which is primedice, my strategy is simple. Since you can bet there even with no balance, I will bet "0" until I reach the four consecutive loses and after that I will going to start now the Martingale strategy. After I win I will reset the sequence again and wait until I reach four consecutive loses again with "0" bet.

To summarize here is the process:

• Bet 0 satoshi
• Wait until you reach 4 consecutive loses
• Bet now using your prefer base bet
• Double the best until you win
• After you win, reset the bet to 0 and wait for four consecutive losses again

Patience is the key on using this strategy and it works on me! If you want to be extra cautious, you can wait until you reach five consecutive loses (it takes time to get through that stage), after that start your base bet. I hope this works for anyone that is going to try this.  

You are third person that came to me with similar system . At first look it might work but when you look closely it appears that you believe that dice remember its previous rolls ... It doesn't. Everything that happens before your bet and after does not affect your bet (or set of bets). That's why there is no difference between regular martingale and martingale that starts after 10 black/red or 10 win/loss with 0.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on February 22, 2019, 08:47:57 AM

Well I don't think it works like this. Starting after 3 reds (4 or 5) makes me feel that some magic force knows what was before your bet and in which combo we are currently. Its not like that. I consider this simulation that its probability of loosing x times in a row not rolling red x times in a row. You can switch from red to black to red and you still have the same (48%) propability of winning and loose x times in a row or stay with red with same propability and get black x times in a row.


Well it would be unprofessional to leave it with just words. I code that and run simulation:

To compare i run regular simulation first.

Code:

Limit:
10000
How manny tests
100000
When you want to quit?
20000
Casino lost with 34480 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 20000$

same with playing after 3 black combo betting on red

Code:

...
Casino lost with 34340 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 20000$

The only thing that change is simulation time. It was so long.

My style in gambling is simple, when I bet and lost, I try to see the pattern of the winning in a certain game, then from that my sequence is when I bet and when I tey to bet lower from what I bet and when, then when I lost try to bet higher but monitor first with pattern again, because every game have pattern you just have to look closely, its just there waiting to be unlock

 Sorry to say that but this is nonesense and you are wasting your time. There is no pattern in random number generator.

[Yatsan]

-Snip-

Yeah, I understand that the previous bet or your future bet don't have any relation with your current bet. The probability of winning will be 50/50 in every bet you are going to make. I am not a mathematical person but just imagine this situation haha LOL.

If you are going to bet with the race to 10 kind of gambling, and you will be given a 4 win head start. Considering that every bet will be a 50/50 chance of winning then your probability of winning will be higher considering that, in general aspect you just needed a 6wins and your opponent need 4wins to entirely win the game.

I am not sure if you will apply math logic to it if it's really applicable, but I am pretty sure that you have more chance of winning the game if you will be given a head start. Same with the gambling at the primedice or any dice sites. So for me it's effective and I will still going to use it, I am thinking it as a head start and surprisingly it is working 

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I am not sure if you will apply math logic to it if it's really applicable, but I am pretty sure that you have more chance of winning the game if you will be given a head start. Same with the gambling at the primedice or any dice sites. So for me it's effective and I will still going to use it, I am thinking it as a head start and surprisingly it is working 

It is not a head start if you start to play after 3 losses because you still have 0 profit/loss in your wallet.

Let me explain it to you in other way. F.e. Me and my fried are playing coin toss. After first 5 throws he won then all. I said ... man, lets start again fresh please. Now i'll be throwing in 100% provably fair random way. Who has bigger ods to win now? Its still 50:50 for next and every other bet. Previous loss does not affect future.

Now imagine that you enter room and you see us playing. We ask you to bet who of us will win next throw. Would you ask "who won last one"? I wouldn't

I know that it might be hard to understand but trust me. I'm sure that it does not affect result not only because i think so ... I've coded simulation for that and it confirms my guess.

[madnessteat]

I changed Martingale's strategy a bit when I was playing dice:
The first bet was 1 Satoshi.
If this bet wins, the next bet will be the same if the bet is doubled.

It seems to be the usual Martingale strategy, but at some point after losing I did not double the bet, and put it completely random for example 5000 Satoshi. Regardless of the outcome of this bet, I started the game anew.

It is clear that in the dice each new bet does not depend on the past, but still this bet often won.

Use it at your own risk and don't forget that in the casino you can lose all your money.

[docthusinh]

My strategy:
- Bet until win.
- Fibonacci, 1.618 multiplier, 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 33 55 85 etc..., if the balance of specified coin is not enough, modify it for a lower number like 1.618 to 1.5 or to 1.3128 etc...
- Add in one of a kind formula to adjust bet size for streak bigger than that.
- Persistent, not a quick get rich scheme, if my earning is low, i will then think of it value at 100,000 USD  per coin and happy with assumed earning with that conversion rate.

*Status: undisclosured, running 24/7, 100 million bets made over 6 and a half months, montly earning is enough to pay my car installment.

[TheGreatPython]

For me I don't plan any specific strategies mostly but when I do here is what I try to implement. Firstly let me make it clear, I don't use any automated betting or bots. So below is how my strategy goes :

1- I try to make bet on 66% win chance around 1% of my bankroll (for me bankroll is what I won't mind if I loose all of it)
2- Loss - Increase bet by 2 times (earlier if it was 0.0001 btc now the bet is 0.0003)
3- If win, reduce bet by 10%

Doesn't always work but I feel good going with this one.