What's your gambling system?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Simple math shows that it is impossible to beat casino. Nevertheless, there are bunch of systems that lots of people believe in and relay on. Such as martingale. That brings them to huge losses that they won't have if they would treat gambling as fun with luck rather than a way to earn by finding the best system (most of them require huge input capital).

I've started to learn to code and I've found it fun for me to code simulations for various strategies. I've coded simulation for martingale that shows that it has lower odds of winning than putting all your money in 1 bet and going home with profit or 0. Here is my thread about it together with few improvements that were brought by users and coded too deeper in this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5112216.msg49832531#msg49832531

In this thread I've decided to code every gambling system You have to show that none of them will beat casino. Feel free to post here your system and I'll code it for you in free time. I've made this thread self-moderated to avoid signature spam such as "I like gambling systems because i can earn using them". But don't worry. If your post will be on topic it won't be removed.


List of systems:

||	nr.	||	name	||	explanation	||	simulation	||	short info	||
||	1	||	Martingale	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	double bet after loss	||
||	2	||	Martingale v2	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	triple bet after loss	||
||	3	||	Martingale v3	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	betting with 75% win rate	||
||	4	||	Martingale v4	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	Fibonacci progression	||
||	5	||	Martingale v5	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	Reset bet after winning twice in a row	||
||	6	||	Martingale v6	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	libert19 variation	||
||	7	||	Martingale v7	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	reverse martingale	||

[1714692517]

1714692517

[sweetbet]

I like to play Roulette, and my favorite bet is the dozen bet which covers 12 numbers in one wager. Place 2 x dozen bets and you cover 24 numbers with 2 wagers.

[libert19]

In every 'method' out there, you will eventually get busted. Anyway, I will write my couple of methods where I had bit of luck with.

1) Go to dice site, where it gives you option of lower/above sides, reset on win, double on every lose, when you lose 5 rolls consecutively, change to the other side.

You guessed it right. It's martingale with bit of twist which sometimes works.

Here is thread I made for the same: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5126416.0

2) Roll with 75% win chances. Double on lose, make the winning bet twice and reset to base bet.

Example,

Start with,

0.1 eos — you lost

Double the bet

0.2 eos — you lost

Double again

0.4 eos — you win

Repeat the winning bet

0.4 eos — you win

If you lose the repeat winning bet then double the next bet. Ie.

Bet with 0.8 eos.

Repeat.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I like to play Roulette, and my favorite bet is the dozen bet which covers 12 numbers in one wager. Place 2 x dozen bets and you cover 24 numbers with 2 wagers.

I've decided not to delete this post because maybe i wasn't precise enough. I'm talking about gambling system such as martingale. Not your favourite bet type - and all of them have the same return in infinite rolls such as i showed in one of my threads - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5111520.msg49808336#msg49808336 - 972 $ out of 1000$ on average out of every roll no matter if you bet on single number, first dozen or red. There is nothing to code for you. (1-0.972) * x rolls * bet - and you can calculate your expected loss. If you lose more than you had bad luck if less means that you were lucky.

[...]

1)Well from the point of view of probability there is no difference if you will switch from red to black or not. So it won't affect simulation. As you said. Sometimes it works - yea 50% times so there is no difference.

2) Martingale with 0.75% win rate... I'll code it for you in free time but in the min time you can take a look at this - martingale with tripling instead of doubling.. You can precise what would be your dream come true portfolio while going with this strategy. 1 000 000 times initial bet? I mean if you are going to bet 0.5 eos first bet than how much money would you bring to casino to feel safe? 500 000 eos? And when would you like to stop? 100% profit?





 

[Haunebu]

Preferred systems:

- Going all in everytime
- Oscar's Grind( Goal is to reach +1 unit and reset )

Among these 3, I stick to the first one majority of the time while I play around with Oscar's Grind now and then. I usually focus primarily on sports betting, but I dabble with these strategies whenever I gamble in casino sites now and then for fun.

[stadus]

I play sports betting, and the strategy that I used is flat betting, the method that I hate is martingale as I got busted a lot of times using that method, but I don't totally close the possibility of using martingale method as I believe it's still useful if you use it at the right event and at the right timing.

What I like with flat betting is that my bankroll would last long if I will not have a success in betting.
If I like to go long term, I usually raise a decent bankroll and just bet at least 2% of my total bankroll in every bet, this needs discipline and I'm proud to say I was able to do it.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

If I like to go long term, I usually raise a decent bankroll and just bet at least 2% of my total bankroll in every bet, this needs discipline and I'm proud to say I was able to do it.

With probability similar to roulette (house edge close to 2,7%) you will lose 80% of your portfolio after 2977 bets. With such a large sample the distribution will be statistical. Your strategy is similar to "I'll transfer x amount of my money to casino weekly because i like them". The longer you are in casino the distribution is closer to statistical - means casino wins. I don't need to code that. It only needs very simple mathematical formula.

Preferred systems:

- Going all in everytime
- Oscar's Grind( Goal is to reach +1 unit and reset )

Among these 3, I stick to the first one majority of the time while I play around with Oscar's Grind now and then. I usually focus primarily on sports betting, but I dabble with these strategies whenever I gamble in casino sites now and then for fun.

Can you specify what's it about?

[GreatArkansas]

Preferred systems:
~...
- Oscar's Grind( Goal is to reach +1 unit and reset )
Among these 3, I stick to the first one majority of the time while I play around with Oscar's Grind now and then.
(....)

Can you specify what's it about?

This system is quite a low risk and there's something like Martingale style.
1 bet unit is for 1 bet won, once you already 1 unit you bet, you will reset.
Example:
1 unit bet = Won, so you will reset.
1 unit bet => 1 unit bet lost => 1 unit bet lost => So , you already 3 units lost bet, continue to bet 1 unit until you get a win.
after 3 units bet lost, your next bet is still 1 unit => win => so, your lost is already 2 units. Here, you can add 1 unit to your initial bet, so.
2 units bet => lost (so, you already 4 units lost), continue => 2 units bet => Won, so you are still 2 units bet lost => increase your bet again to 1 unit, so.
3 units bet now=> and you won. 2units - 3 units = 1 unit WON. and reset now since you won 1 unit.

Watch more here about this system. This is something a good strategy for roulette games or maybe on dice games.

[mu_enrico]

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;
- Reverse martingale using the highest % win chance and then increase the bet if win (with % increase less than the payout). For example: use 98% win rate and 1.02% payout. If win, increase the bet by 0.5% (less than 1.02%). Reset if loss and x consecutive wins (try 80).

[Tytanowy Janusz]

2) Roll with 75% win chances. Double on lose, make the winning bet twice and reset to base bet.

As i already had working code for roulette i've decided to modify it. To reach 75% win chance i've set my simulation to the situation in which you spread your bet on 27 numbers giving 27/37=73% win rate with 36/27 payout.

Outcome is horrible. Much worse than with martingale:

I've started with portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 100000

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 278 gamblers out of 10000

Only 2.78 % gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. How about bigger portfolios:

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

None of gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. Looks like bigger portfolio is making it even worse

Code:

Limit: 
100
target: 
110
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 4735 gamblers out of 10000

47% gamblers was able to win 10%. It sould be 90%.

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;
- Reverse martingale using the highest % win chance and then increase the bet if win (with % increase less than the payout). For example: use 98% win rate and 1.02% payout. If win, increase the bet by 0.5% (less than 1.02%). Reset if loss and x consecutive wins (try 80).

Thanks. This may bring interesting results. I'll do it in free time.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;

Well i don't have impressive results.

Code:

Limit: 
1000000
target: 
2000000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino.

How about lower limits?

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 3460 gamblers out of 100000

Only 3,46% gamblers was able to double. With original martingale 39% gamblers beat casino.

That's because Fibonacci function grow too slow. Means that after 10 lost bets next bet will be 89. Total loss will be 232 what gives net loss. That way you are constantly going down with your wallet.

[libert19]

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

You mean that i need to win twice in a raw to reset bet size to default? Because i'm not sure if i understand it correctly.

My simulation is simple martingale but not with 50% winrate but 75% win rate. The payout is accordingly lower:

[libert19]

None out of 100 000 gamblers was lucky enough to make 1000 $ out of 500$ with 1 $ initial bet. That's because you do not cover your losses with wins because payout is too small thus you are constantly going down with your portfolio.

Did you made the winning bet twice? Profitability depends on repeat winning bet.

You mean that i need to win twice in a raw to reset bet size to default? Because i'm not sure if i understand it correctly.

Yes that's right. Reset bet amount after winning twice in a raw.

Edit: what results did your simulations yield?

[eternalgloom]

I've coded simulation for martingale that shows that it has lower odds of winning than putting all your money in 1 bet and going home with profit or 0.

Sorry that I'm cherry picking this statement out of your entire topic, but that's actually something I'm going to use when someone asks me whether Martingale is a good idea.
It's indeed much better in a wide variety of scenarios (not just with Martingale), to just place one bet that gives the payout you want, instead of doing multiple bets.

I reckon it would also be a good tool to prevent yourself getting addicted, but only if you sick to the one bet.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Yes that's right. Reset bet amount after winning twice in a raw.

Edit: what results did your simulations yield?

Just coded it - I was quite busy last days. Outcome is much better but still worse than betting all your money in single bet. Here are results:

I've input the same data as before. Portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet as starting point.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 6049 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 172 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 6,0% of gamblers was able to double from 500$. Much better than 0 last time. I've added time that average winner spent in casino. 172 h for 500 $ = 2,9$/h is not what you want to get from gambling. Especially with 94% probability of fail.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 7294 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 15 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 72,9 % gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio. It should be close to 90%. How about bigger portfolios:

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 738 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 766 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

7,4% of gamblers was able to beat casino and earn 10% of portfolio. Much better than 0 last time but still not close to oryginal martingale or single bet strategy. Again - bigger portfolio makes it worse. 766 hours in casino to earn 1000$. 1,3$/h with 92% probability of fail and loosing 10000$ (every gambler who do not beat casino zero his porfolio).

Code:

Limit: 
100
target: 
110
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8092 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

81% gamblers was able to win 10%. It should be 90%. Looks like the less money you bring to the casino the bigger are your odds to win certain % of your portfolio.

[libert19]

Thanks! I have discovered another 'strategy' where I had bit of luck last few days . I would love to have your results on it.


It works pretty much similar, just that after making winning bet twice in a row you don't reset to base bet rather come to it by decreasing by half until you reach base bet.

Start with 75% win chance, on lose double the next bet, make winning bet twice, decrease next bet after second winning bet by half.

Base bet: 0.1 eos (lose)

Next bet: 0.2 eos (lose)

Next bet: 0.4 eos

On win repeat the winning bet

next bet: 0. 4 eos

(now, don't go to base bet after win, go to it by decreasing it by half)

So your next bet: 0.2 eos

If you win

Next bet: 0.1 eos

Else

Next bet: 0.4 eos

Repeat..


It pains me to write, easier done than said 😂

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Start with 75% win chance, on lose double the next bet, make winning bet twice, decrease next bet after second winning bet by half.

Again. Better outcome but still worse than regular martingale or betting all your money in single bet:

I've input the same data as before. Portfolio (limit) equal to 500 times initial bet as starting point.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 27633 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 21 hours in casino (1 bet per minute,)

Only 27,6% of gamblers was able to double from 500$. 21h spent in casino for average winner. 500 $ / 21h = 23,8$/h with 72.4 % probability of fail and loosing 1000$.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8260 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

Only 82,6% gamblers was able to earn 10% of portfolio (slightly better than last time -72,9 % ):

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 8049 gamblers out of 10000
Average winner spent: 25 hours in casino (1 bet per minute)

80,5% of gamblers was able to beat casino and earn 10% of portfolio (that's much better than last time - 7.4%). This strategy seems to be much more portfolio size resistant - that's because its much more aggressive.

[libert19]

Thanks again! Seems like going all in in single bet seems best way to go lol, either double or go home.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

@libert19
There is no need of quoting my whole post. Just add @Tytanowy Janusz or quote a sentence you are referring too so the whole topic won't look like rubbish. You have 24 h to correct your post otherwise i'll delete it to keep whole topic clean for people willing to read it.

Thanks again! Seems like going all in in single bet seems best way to go lol, either double or go home.

In roulette there is ~970 $ return out of every 1000$ bet on average (with statistic distribution) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5111520.msg49808336#msg49808336. No matter how will you place it. If you will place it in one bet than your average return will be 970$ (3%*1000$ * 1 bet = 30$ for casino). If you will place 100$ 100 times (win, loss, win, loss, loss, win etc) than your average return will be 700$ (3% * 100$ *100 bets = 300$ for casino). The best strategy than is to limits your betting volume to minimum (by placing all your money in single bet). That's makes your outcome maximum far from statistic distribution what gives you the biggest chance to win.

[mu_enrico]

Bro, could you do the followings:
- All in after five or six consecutive losses
- Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance

I think these would be the best strategy.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

- All in after five or six consecutive losses
- Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance

This is one strategy or 2?

I don't quite understand how it work. Could you explain it a little more clearly?

[Malsetid]

- All in after five or six consecutive losses
- Standard martingale after five or six consecutive losses, with 10% of your total balance

This is one strategy or 2?

I don't quite understand how it work. Could you explain it a little more clearly?

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol. It works for some people but almost not for everyone in the long run. This system worked for me for a short while though when you get drawn deeper into betting, losing everything will be really quick.

[numanoid]

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol

it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

[carlfebz2]

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol

it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

Going all in or bet all in 6 or 7th bet? Not an assurance thing to hit up as I had tried this in the past when I'm still playing dice on my newbie exploring days.
Waiting for some losing streaks then betting big on the next roll presuming that it would be a green.No matter how you tweaked it up
We cant really predict on how long would be the losing streak on that time.

[libert19]

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol

it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

Going all in or bet all in 6 or 7th bet? Not an assurance thing to hit up as I had tried this in the past when I'm still playing dice on my newbie exploring days.
Waiting for some losing streaks then betting big on the next roll presuming that it would be a green.No matter how you tweaked it up
We cant really predict on how long would be the losing streak on that time.

Right, thinking like, "I have had 6 losses in a raw so I must be winning the next one" is wrong thinking, every dice roll comes with the same odds, you can't predict what next roll will bring.

[mu_enrico]

This is one strategy or 2?

Two strategies as explained by @numanoid

IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

Well, this is experiment right? Who knows it will give better results than

Edit: removed wrong comment

Anything better than the above below results will be the "best strategy" lol

PS: make sure you count the correct lose streak

[Tytanowy Janusz]

cryptovigi found better strategy than regular martingale. It's in link in OP:

Its simple martingale with tripling instead of doubling after every loss.

||

1

||

Martingale v2

||

xxx

||

xxx

||

triple bet after loss

||

I've tested in on different data than so I've found old program and run it on new data. Here are results:

Code:

Limit: 
1000000
target: 
2000000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 43380 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 280 hours in casino

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 43565 gamblers out of 100000
Average winner spent: 2 hours in casino

So to find "best strategy" you have be beat those numbers

I'll code your strategy in free time.

[bones261]

I am curious how a betting strategy would work where a person tries to take advantage of win streaks by doubling their bet after an initial win and then going back to 1 unit after a loss. (Just to be clear, I mean to only bet 1 or 2 units. Not keep doubling until you lose.) also, how would this work if you were willing to double and redouble (for a maximum of 4 units) and go back to 1 unit after loss.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I am curious how a betting strategy would work where a person tries to take advantage of win streaks by doubling their bet after an initial win and then going back to 1 unit after a loss. (Just to be clear, I mean to only bet 1 or 2 units. Not keep doubling until you lose.) also, how would this work if you were willing to double and redouble (for a maximum of 4 units) and go back to 1 unit after loss.

I'm not 100% sure if i understand it correectly:
strategy 1

Code:

1 
win
2
win
2
win
2
win
2
loss
1
loss 
1

strategy 2

Code:

1
win
2
win
4
win
4
win
4
loss
1
loss 
1

Thats what you mean?

[Bardman]

Using math you can also prove that some strategies are actually slightly better than others and can in fact even get a bit more house edge percentage in your favor, talking about a pretty small percentage. I believe one sequence of martingale gives you better odds than 1 single bet. For example if you have 1 BTC, it's better to split it in a few smaller amounts and bet using martingale, I don't remember exactly how you had to split it in order to have a better chance.

[bones261]

I'm not 100% sure if i understand it correectly:
strategy 1

Code:

1 
win
2
win
2
win
2
win
2
loss
1
loss 
1

strategy 2

Code:

1
win
2
win
4
win
4
win
4
loss
1
loss 
1

Thats what you mean?

Yes, this is what I meant for both strategies.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Yes, this is what I meant for both strategies.

Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago

Here are my results.
Strategy2:

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 4 gamblers out of 100000

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
550
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 37048 gamblers out of 100000

Code:

Limit: 
10000
target: 
11000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

With regular martingale you are constantly increasing portfolio until sudden death. In your strategy you are bleeding slowly with every bet until there is nothing to bet with. With big portfolios this strategy is very similar to flat betting which is 100% loss strategy. Strategy 1 is even closer to flat betting that's why i've decided to go in another direction. Increasing bet up to 32x.

Code:

Limit: 
500
target: 
1000
How manny tests
100000
Casino lost with 23416 gamblers out of 100000

Much better than 4

That proofs that the more aggressive you are the bigger are your odds of winning. Up to the most aggressive strategy (bet all your money on red and double or go home broken)

[bones261]

Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago

Congratulations on the new addition to your family and thank you for the well put together statistics. so I guess the rule of thumb is to go big or go home.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Congratulations on the new addition to your family and thank you for the well put together statistics. so I guess the rule of thumb is to go big or go home.

Thank you. Is there anything else i can code for you? For now the best strategy other than single bet was martingale with tripling instead of doubling (much more agressive martingale).

Using math you can also prove that some strategies are actually slightly better than others

Yes, but brute force simulation is easier to do and easier to explain to others.

I believe one sequence of martingale gives you better odds than 1 single bet. For example if you have 1 BTC, it's better to split it in a few smaller amounts and bet using martingale, I don't remember exactly how you had to split it in order to have a better chance.

Some people believe in flat earth Rule is simple. The bigger your trading volume is the more money is sucked by hose edge and the closer you get to statistic distribution. Find your strategy and bring here.

[Muttley]

Well, I am testing the following strategy, and I am earning 3% of my total wagered amount.

1 - I select any coin from my bank
2 - Select predicition 3 (96,0 % win chance)
3 - Select total amount and divide it 14 times
4 - Play auto with stop betting after a loss
5 - After this loss, select prediction 51 (48,0% win chance) and manually do a martingale until you get profit
6 - After this winning bet, return to step 1

With this strategy I am getting exact 3% of my total wagered. You can change step 3 to 13 times or 15 times, if you want to risk more or less.

This is my stats after more than 113k bets. Note I have 1.03% (3%) profit in more than 50 different coins, except Doge because I did a mistake:

https://luckygames.io/user/Muttley3percent/stats/

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Well, I am testing the following strategy, and I am earning 3% of my total wagered amount.

1 - I select any coin from my bank
2 - Select predicition 3 (96,0 % win chance)
3 - Select total amount and divide it 14 times
4 - Play auto with stop betting after a loss
5 - After this loss, select prediction 51 (48,0% win chance) and manually do a martingale until you get profit
6 - After this winning bet, return to step 1

With this strategy I am getting exact 3% of my total wagered. You can change step 3 to 13 times or 15 times, if you want to risk more or less.

This is my stats after more than 113k bets. Note I have 1.03% (3%) profit in more than 50 different coins, except Doge because I did a mistake:

https://luckygames.io/user/Muttley3percent/stats/

Damn
I didn't notice your post. I'll code it for you in the next few days but as i see it is based on martingale and will profit as long as you would not hit killing strike doing martingale what was shown to be unprofitable in this tread already. Am i wrong?

do a martingale until you get profit

What if there won't be profit?

[cabalism13]

Does any of these system applies on Mintdice? I'm just playing it automatically LoL, I already killed my FUN. I don't know for sure if such Martingale would be effective on this kind of habit of mine.

Any Ideas?

Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago

Another man was born, Let me guess, you're currently babysitting right now 🤣 Jk.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Does any of these system applies on Mintdice? I'm just playing it automatically LoL, I already killed my FUN. I don't know for sure if such Martingale would be effective on this kind of habit of mine.

Any Ideas?

You can apply them all but why? I've prooved that all of those systems has lower odds of winning than placing all your money in single bet. Playing automatically not only kills fun from gambling but also pushes your outcome from gambling closer to statistic distribution what guarantee loss. For now no one was able to present system that works. Some was able to present system that guarantee loss:

Some idea:
- Martingale with Fibonacci progression 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, ... ;

Well i don't have impressive results.

Code:

Limit: 
1000000
target: 
2000000
How manny tests
10000
Casino lost with 0 gamblers out of 10000

No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino.

Sorry that I was idle for so long. My second son was born 3 days ago

Another man was born, Let me guess, you're currently babysitting right now 🤣 Jk.

This little guy do not need babysitting He only sleeps and eats.

[mu_enrico]

Some was able to present system that guarantee loss:

Thanks for the compliment, however
Guaranteed loss is an overstatement I think. It depends on how many rolls and your target return.

No one was able to double portfolio while entering casino with 1 000 000 initial bet - with original martingale 27% gamblers beat casino.

This result was not telling the whole picture, such as how many of it would get busted (0 balance).

Perhaps 73% of "original" martingale users would get home with an empty pocket, while only a few of Fibonacci progression users got busted.

Fibonacci progression lowers the risk and obviously lowers the return as well.

By the way, congratulations on your newborn baby! Less gambling, more buying milk!

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Thanks for the compliment, however
Guaranteed loss is an overstatement I think. It depends on how many rolls and your target return.

I didn't mean to be rude:) Most of the systems presented here was much worse than martingale.
I still have code for your system. I can compare it with martingale in various simulations (like 10% target, portfolio = 100x intial bet etc.)
Just let me know what parameter would you like to see.

Code:

porfolio =
target = 
number of test=

I think that fibbonaci martingale will alwais loose with regular martingale.

This result was not telling the whole picture, such as how many of it would get busted (0 balance).

Perhaps 73% of "original" martingale users would get home with an empty pocket, while only a few of Fibonacci progression users got busted.

Fibonacci progression lowers the risk and obviously lowers the return as well.

By the way, congratulations on your newborn baby! Less gambling, more buying milk!

This program works like that:

1- start with initial portfolio and play with system:
a - portfolio doubled -> win = win +1
b- portfolio zeroed -> break;
simulation for 1 gambler has ended
repeat for 10 000- 100 000 gamblers

So when you see 10 000 gamblers and none of them was able to double it means that they all zero their portfolio because there is no other way to stop the loop in program (zero or double).

Regular martingale system is like - you profit until you hit killing strike. Gambler who win is the one who was lucky enough to not hit killing strike before doubling portfolio
Fibonacci martingale is like - you are constantly decreasing your portfolio because you are loosing more than you are winning. Gambler who beat casino is the one who had (f.e) 9000 wins out of 10000 from first 10000 bets. - was lucky enough to be the farthest from statistic distribution.
So it's not quite that you are loosing less with Fibonacci. It's like your porfoplio is going down and down untill you are doomed after xxx bets.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Ok. I've found some time and I've decided to come back to this thread. OP updated - we have 7 martingale simulations. I'm open for more. Do you have any gambling system that you want to test long-term? Bring it here. It does not need to be martingale variation. I'll do my best to code any simulation.

[Haunebu]

Just found this particular variation of Martingale through Youtube(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPO_fWa_27g&t=1086s) and would like to see whether it is more effective.

Strategy:

1. We aim to gain 1 unit and restart. Pattern: 1 1 1(If win, restart this pattern)
2. If we lose, we follow this pattern : 2 2 2(If win, go back to level 1).
3. If we lose, we follow the pattern : 4 4 4(If win, go back to level 2).
etc etc.

Basically, this martingale strategy helps you wager more over a longer period of time, but depends on 2 or more consecutive win streaks.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Pattern: 1 1 1(If win, restart this pattern)

I'll code it for you but i need you to clarify me one thing.

What does that 1 1 1 mean? 3 bets with 1 unit each bet? "If win, restart this pattern" -> how many bets out of this 3 bets has be won to call this a "winning pattern" and reset to 1 unit?

[Haunebu]

What does that 1 1 1 mean? 3 bets with 1 unit each bet? "If win, restart this pattern" -> how many bets out of this 3 bets has be won to call this a "winning pattern" and reset to 1 unit?

1. Bet with 1 unit initially. If you win, restart.
2. If you lose, follow the 1 1 1 pattern which means bet again with 1 unit. If you win, bet again with 1 unit. If you win, restart the pattern.
3. Basically, you aim to win 1 unit like Oscar's grind and restart.
4. In 1 1 1, if you win the 1st bet, you immediately restart. If you don't, you need to win the remaining 2(1 unit bets) in order to restart.
5. If not, you go to the next level to 2 2 2(Follow same process like above) to recover your losses. The youtube link that I shared provides more information in detail.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

1. Bet with 1 unit initially. If you win, restart.
2. If you lose, follow the 1 1 1 pattern which means bet again with 1 unit. If you win, bet again with 1 unit. If you win, restart the pattern.
3. Basically, you aim to win 1 unit like Oscar's grind and restart.
4. In 1 1 1, if you win the 1st bet, you immediately restart. If you don't, you need to win the remaining 2(1 unit bets) in order to restart.
5. If not, you go to the next level to 2 2 2(Follow same process like above) to recover your losses. The youtube link that I shared provides more information in detail.

Ok I get it. Very interesting martingale variation but from potability point of view its the same as regular one but i'm not 100% sure. It will be my pleasure to test it. I'll do it in free time.

edit: just deleted 2 off-topic posts. Guys this is not "spam whatever thread". Do not post things like "i like to gamble" or "i like provably fair system". I'll delete them to keep this thread clean.

[Lucasgabd]

<...>

that's a really interesting post.
would be lovely to see a spreadsheet comparring win rates between different strategies.

but trust me:
if you find a way that the casino don't have an edge they'll figure it out at some point and change the system.

even if you win, the true winner is always the house.

[Haunebu]

Ok I get it. Very interesting martingale variation but from potability point of view its the same as regular one but i'm not 100% sure. It will be my pleasure to test it. I'll do it in free time.

Will be waiting to see the results of your simulation. I have personally tested this method and I have been successful for sometime now though I never played too long since winning 1 unit at a time tests your patience.

but trust me:
if you find a way that the casino don't have an edge they'll figure it out at some point and change the system.

even if you win, the true winner is always the house.

This is obvious, but we are simply testing systems to profit and have fun in the short term since the house always wins in the long term. Using systems is better than gambling randomly in my opinion primarily for the sake of fun.

[BALIK]

Personally, when I'm playing Dice I use a very specific version of the Martingale strategy which basically increases the bet by 1/10th for every loss
For example, I'll set the bet at the minimum bet amount, and then set the bet multiplier to 90% and then run it to increment the bet by 10% if it loses.

After that, I'll set the autobet to stop playing once it reaches 200% of the win amount. The next day I'll start at 2x the minimum bet and repeat the system.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

would be lovely to see a spreadsheet comparring win rates between different strategies.

Every single system despite "triple bet after loss instead of double" was worse than regular martingale and literally every system was worse than single bet system (all your wallet in 1 bet. Double or go home broken). So i don't see a reason to use them/rank then in spreadsheet. They are all worthless.

As Haunebu said. Using systems will only boost your fun factor if you like it.

Using systems is better than gambling randomly in my opinion primarily for the sake of fun.

[Lucasgabd]

would be lovely to see a spreadsheet comparring win rates between different strategies.

Every single system despite "triple bet after loss instead of double" was worse than regular martingale and literally every system was worse than single bet system (all your wallet in 1 bet. Double or go home broken). So i don't see a reason to use them/rank then in spreadsheet. They are all worthless.

As Haunebu said. Using systems will only boost your fun factor if you like it.

Using systems is better than gambling randomly in my opinion primarily for the sake of fun.

makes sense
so is it a consensus that triple bet should be the new martingale?

so interesting how simmilar risk management is in trading and in gambling
even being different and trading having the need of more skill than gamblers, risk management could be applied to both, starting from the basics of never investing more than you're ok with losing to more advanced concepts.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

makes sense
so is it a consensus that triple bet should be the new martingale?

so interesting how simmilar risk management is in trading and in gambling
even being different and trading having the need of more skill than gamblers, risk management could be applied to both, starting from the basics of never investing more than you're ok with losing to more advanced concepts.

We are going a little off topic but i'll leave it here since I couldn't agree more. The only think that I would like to add is that it does not apply to every game. Only poker and other player vs player games. Not player vs casino where one site has statistical advantage over another.

I even created this thread in which I encourage playing poker to train skill that are necessary in trading.

Personally, when I'm playing Dice I use a very specific version of the Martingale strategy which basically increases the bet by 1/10th for every loss
For example, I'll set the bet at the minimum bet amount, and then set the bet multiplier to 90% and then run it to increment the bet by 10% if it loses.

After that, I'll set the autobet to stop playing once it reaches 200% of the win amount. The next day I'll start at 2x the minimum bet and repeat the system.

I think i have simulated similar variation somewhere. It has horrible output. I'll find it in free time.


Todo list:
Haunebu Martingale variation

[akirasendo17]

My style in gambling is simple, when I bet and lost, I try to see the pattern of the winning in a certain game, then from that my sequence is when I bet and when I tey to bet lower from what I bet and when, then when I lost try to bet higher but monitor first with pattern again, because every game have pattern you just have to look closely, its just there waiting to be unlock

[Yatsan]

Mine is (Martingale double bet after loss) I am doing it in dice site which is primedice, my strategy is simple. Since you can bet there even with no balance, I will bet "0" until I reach the four consecutive loses and after that I will going to start now the Martingale strategy. After I win I will reset the sequence again and wait until I reach four consecutive loses again with "0" bet.

To summarize here is the process:

• Bet 0 satoshi
• Wait until you reach 4 consecutive loses
• Bet now using your prefer base bet
• Double the best until you win
• After you win, reset the bet to 0 and wait for four consecutive losses again

Patience is the key on using this strategy and it works on me! If you want to be extra cautious, you can wait until you reach five consecutive loses (it takes time to get through that stage), after that start your base bet. I hope this works for anyone that is going to try this.  

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Mine is (Martingale double bet after loss) I am doing it in dice site which is primedice, my strategy is simple. Since you can bet there even with no balance, I will bet "0" until I reach the four consecutive loses and after that I will going to start now the Martingale strategy. After I win I will reset the sequence again and wait until I reach four consecutive loses again with "0" bet.

To summarize here is the process:

• Bet 0 satoshi
• Wait until you reach 4 consecutive loses
• Bet now using your prefer base bet
• Double the best until you win
• After you win, reset the bet to 0 and wait for four consecutive losses again

Patience is the key on using this strategy and it works on me! If you want to be extra cautious, you can wait until you reach five consecutive loses (it takes time to get through that stage), after that start your base bet. I hope this works for anyone that is going to try this.  

You are third person that came to me with similar system . At first look it might work but when you look closely it appears that you believe that dice remember its previous rolls ... It doesn't. Everything that happens before your bet and after does not affect your bet (or set of bets). That's why there is no difference between regular martingale and martingale that starts after 10 black/red or 10 win/loss with 0.

Quote from: Tytanowy Janusz on February 22, 2019, 08:47:57 AM

Well I don't think it works like this. Starting after 3 reds (4 or 5) makes me feel that some magic force knows what was before your bet and in which combo we are currently. Its not like that. I consider this simulation that its probability of loosing x times in a row not rolling red x times in a row. You can switch from red to black to red and you still have the same (48%) propability of winning and loose x times in a row or stay with red with same propability and get black x times in a row.


Well it would be unprofessional to leave it with just words. I code that and run simulation:

To compare i run regular simulation first.

Code:

Limit:
10000
How manny tests
100000
When you want to quit?
20000
Casino lost with 34480 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 20000$

same with playing after 3 black combo betting on red

Code:

...
Casino lost with 34340 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 20000$

The only thing that change is simulation time. It was so long.

My style in gambling is simple, when I bet and lost, I try to see the pattern of the winning in a certain game, then from that my sequence is when I bet and when I tey to bet lower from what I bet and when, then when I lost try to bet higher but monitor first with pattern again, because every game have pattern you just have to look closely, its just there waiting to be unlock

 Sorry to say that but this is nonesense and you are wasting your time. There is no pattern in random number generator.

[Yatsan]

-Snip-

Yeah, I understand that the previous bet or your future bet don't have any relation with your current bet. The probability of winning will be 50/50 in every bet you are going to make. I am not a mathematical person but just imagine this situation haha LOL.

If you are going to bet with the race to 10 kind of gambling, and you will be given a 4 win head start. Considering that every bet will be a 50/50 chance of winning then your probability of winning will be higher considering that, in general aspect you just needed a 6wins and your opponent need 4wins to entirely win the game.

I am not sure if you will apply math logic to it if it's really applicable, but I am pretty sure that you have more chance of winning the game if you will be given a head start. Same with the gambling at the primedice or any dice sites. So for me it's effective and I will still going to use it, I am thinking it as a head start and surprisingly it is working 

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I am not sure if you will apply math logic to it if it's really applicable, but I am pretty sure that you have more chance of winning the game if you will be given a head start. Same with the gambling at the primedice or any dice sites. So for me it's effective and I will still going to use it, I am thinking it as a head start and surprisingly it is working 

It is not a head start if you start to play after 3 losses because you still have 0 profit/loss in your wallet.

Let me explain it to you in other way. F.e. Me and my fried are playing coin toss. After first 5 throws he won then all. I said ... man, lets start again fresh please. Now i'll be throwing in 100% provably fair random way. Who has bigger ods to win now? Its still 50:50 for next and every other bet. Previous loss does not affect future.

Now imagine that you enter room and you see us playing. We ask you to bet who of us will win next throw. Would you ask "who won last one"? I wouldn't

I know that it might be hard to understand but trust me. I'm sure that it does not affect result not only because i think so ... I've coded simulation for that and it confirms my guess.

[madnessteat]

I changed Martingale's strategy a bit when I was playing dice:
The first bet was 1 Satoshi.
If this bet wins, the next bet will be the same if the bet is doubled.

It seems to be the usual Martingale strategy, but at some point after losing I did not double the bet, and put it completely random for example 5000 Satoshi. Regardless of the outcome of this bet, I started the game anew.

It is clear that in the dice each new bet does not depend on the past, but still this bet often won.

Use it at your own risk and don't forget that in the casino you can lose all your money.

[docthusinh]

My strategy:
- Bet until win.
- Fibonacci, 1.618 multiplier, 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 33 55 85 etc..., if the balance of specified coin is not enough, modify it for a lower number like 1.618 to 1.5 or to 1.3128 etc...
- Add in one of a kind formula to adjust bet size for streak bigger than that.
- Persistent, not a quick get rich scheme, if my earning is low, i will then think of it value at 100,000 USD  per coin and happy with assumed earning with that conversion rate.

*Status: undisclosured, running 24/7, 100 million bets made over 6 and a half months, montly earning is enough to pay my car installment.

[TheGreatPython]

For me I don't plan any specific strategies mostly but when I do here is what I try to implement. Firstly let me make it clear, I don't use any automated betting or bots. So below is how my strategy goes :

1- I try to make bet on 66% win chance around 1% of my bankroll (for me bankroll is what I won't mind if I loose all of it)
2- Loss - Increase bet by 2 times (earlier if it was 0.0001 btc now the bet is 0.0003)
3- If win, reduce bet by 10%

Doesn't always work but I feel good going with this one.

[wwzsocki]

Great thread @Tytanowy Janusz, just found it and keep reading from the beginning.

Unfortunately, I am not a martingale expert and even don't have so much experience with implementing it to my play because every time I tried to get an advantage and used usual martingale in my betting, it ends up always with a total loose sooner or later. There was always this moment when 16 or 20 black or reds show up in a row, which drained bankroll to zero.
Of course, I tried different settings and adjustments, but the end was always this same, many blacks or reds in a row, sometimes with zero between them  .

This thread is different from every martingale discussion because I see here many variations that I have never seen before and want to ask if OP has tested all of them already?

List of systems:

||	nr.	||	name	||	explanation	||	simulation	||	short info	||
||	1	||	Martingale	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	double bet after loss	||
||	2	||	Martingale v2	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	triple bet after loss	||
||	3	||	Martingale v3	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	betting with 75% win rate	||
||	4	||	Martingale v4	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	Fibonacci progression	||
||	5	||	Martingale v5	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	Reset bet after winning twice in a row	||
||	6	||	Martingale v6	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	libert19 variation	||
||	7	||	Martingale v7	||	xxx	||	xxx	||	reverse martingale	||

...In this thread I've decided to code every gambling system You have to show that none of them will beat casino...

Which one is the best and gives the best chances? Is there any which actually works?

PS
I see explanations about these variations in the thread, but it is hard to understand them correctly if one has not too much experience with martingale and that is why I want to get a straight answer if possible?

[Danydee]

Hi OP,

Can you code/do virtualisation for martingale on 2,2x multiplier, or 120% profit on win. I would ask you for the difference between starting at 1 and starting at 2 with bankroll off 100,000.



Thank you

[Tytanowy Janusz]

Which one is the best and gives the best chances? Is there any which actually works?

PS
I see explanations about these variations in the thread, but it is hard to understand them correctly if one has not too much experience with martingale and that is why I want to get a straight answer if possible?

The best martingale system variation so far is this one - tripling instead of doubling but still it is much worse than simply going into casino and betting all your money in single trade double or go home broken (single bet system). So does it work? No ... but still it is better than regular martingale and any other martingale variation.

Hi OP,
Can you code/do virtualisation for martingale on 2,2x multiplier, or 120% profit on win. I would ask you for the difference between starting at 1 and starting at 2 with bankroll off 100,000.
Thank you

Sure. I was very busy last days and completely forgot about this topic. I still need to code simulation for Harunobu and others. I will try to find time to finally come back to this tread.

[AniviaBtc]

He's basically doubling his bets after every loss. And the will go for broke once he's had 6 rolls of bad luck lol

it's not like that. IMO, he said about 2 strategies, first one is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you bet all in/max of your money for 6/7th bet (this is crazy, you can't be sure you will win since we have often seen more than 8 streak losses)
And the second is after 5 or 6 streak losses, you will go with 10% from your money which kinda safer than first one.

Going all in or bet all in 6 or 7th bet? Not an assurance thing to hit up as I had tried this in the past when I'm still playing dice on my newbie exploring days.
Waiting for some losing streaks then betting big on the next roll presuming that it would be a green.No matter how you tweaked it up
We cant really predict on how long would be the losing streak on that time.

Right, thinking like, "I have had 6 losses in a raw so I must be winning the next one" is wrong thinking, every dice roll comes with the same odds, you can't predict what next roll will bring.

No matter what strategy you're going to apply, luck is still needed for you to succeed in all of your gambling platform. I tried to gamble with a lot of strategy, somehow it is effective and will really put you in a winning streak but I realized that I'm just lucky that day. As I try to use my strategy from time to time, there's a time that my strategy is not that effective anymore. I already used that Martingale Strategy but in the end, I loss a huge amount of money because I'm not that lucky enough to win that, but because I trusted this strategy, I'm confident that I'll win my money back. In the next roll, I don't have any money to spent so I concluded that this Martingale is not that effective in all of situation in our gambling career so always be careful in gambling and learn how to discipline your self.

[20kevin20]

I've tried so many gambling systems and the conclusion I reached is that there's no way you can game their mechanism. The more you risk, the earlier you bust. The opposite applies too. I tried playing out with the "1.01x" payout through dice and I have miserably failed after more than 15 hours of automated bets. Through Martingale, the fastest bust was under 5 minutes.

If you wanna play, just go for it whatever the final outcome is. All you need is luck; have it and you'll happily end the gambling session in minutes.

The only thing you can game in a gambling session is the greed. If you can play it out and stop before a complete bust, then you're ahead of the game. Otherwise.. it's all about luck. A lifetime experience doesn't give you higher chances to win. In fact, if you've been a long time gambler, chances are you already are in a pretty deep debt.

[jademaxsuy]

I tried doubling my bets after losing 2 times or 3 times and reset when I won and repeat when I lose again but in the end all the money I gamble are lose in gambling. I am not very lucky with strategies and I would only base on luck or it's randomness when I gamble sometimes.

[Latviand]

Which one is the best and gives the best chances? Is there any which actually works?

PS
I see explanations about these variations in the thread, but it is hard to understand them correctly if one has not too much experience with martingale and that is why I want to get a straight answer if possible?

The best martingale system variation so far is this one - tripling instead of doubling but still it is much worse than simply going into casino and betting all your money in single trade double or go home broken (single bet system). So does it work? No ... but still it is better than regular martingale and any other martingale variation.

Hi OP,
Can you code/do virtualisation for martingale on 2,2x multiplier, or 120% profit on win. I would ask you for the difference between starting at 1 and starting at 2 with bankroll off 100,000.
Thank you

Sure. I was very busy last days and completely forgot about this topic. I still need to code simulation for Harunobu and others. I will try to find time to finally come back to this tread.

Multiplying your bet is not a guaranteed strategy no matter if your a newbie or professional gambler. We all know that gambling is risky and the probability of winning is always lower than losing so it is your call if you will do that Martingale Strategy. Gambling is risky plus you will add more risk to it then the possibility of you winning will become impossible, most especially if you're not luck enough to win. The only chance to minimize the losses is to budget the money that you're going to spend and practice self-control. Self-discipline will make your mind comfortable in gambling and let you think peacefully and critically so that your decisions in gambling will be clear and you avoid being greedy. In order to win in gambling, it start with your own emotion and self-manipulation of thoughts and that Martingale Strategy is not effective at all.