hosseinimr93 (OP)
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September 02, 2019, 07:59:37 PM Last edit: September 02, 2019, 09:21:41 PM by hosseinimr93 |
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Martingale is a popular method some gamblers use to increase their chance in dice games. First I describe this method for those that are not familiar with this method. In this method, players increase the amount of the next bet when they lose. They increase the amount of bet to cover all the previous losses. This increasing continues until they finally win. They believe that it's impossible to loss all the bets and they will finally win a bet. Here I want to calculate the chance of winning when players use this method.
Let's assume that a player has 1 bitcoin and starts with 1 Satoshi. I guess I have considered the bet increment as small as needed. I also assume that the bet odd is 2 and win chance is 49%.
So, If I bet to double my bitcoins my chance is 49%. But I will use Martingale strategy to increase my chance. I bet 1 Satoshi, If I lose I double the amount of the bet. Whenever I win, the amount of my next bet is 1 Satoshi. The amount of bets are: 1, 2, 4, 8, ...........
My 26th bet will be 33,554,432 Satoshis. If I lose this bet I cannot double my bet. Because I have already lost 67,108,863 Satoshis and my balance is only 32,891,137 Satoshis, But no problem. I can try my luck 26 times. It's impossible to lose 26 times in a game with 49% chance of win. The chance of losing 26 times is [(0.51)^26] = 0.0000000249
So The chance of winning at least one of the 26 bets is [1-0.0000000249] = 0.9999999751 It's great. It's impossible to lose. I will always win. I will become rich soon.
I will repeat this 100,000,000 times to double my bitcoin. I will have 2 bitcoins soon.
Every time I use this method, my chance is 0.9999999751 and my chance of winning for 100,000,000 times is
[(0.9999999751)^100000000] = 0.0829
Did you see what happened?
Martingale strategy decreases your chance. Avoid it.
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Hamphser
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September 02, 2019, 09:15:14 PM |
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This topic has been discussed a million times already. Martingale strategy is too risky to use specially if you bet with higher stakes and it does also depends on your chances whether it is a luck-based game or skill-based game. If you feel you have the luck in a game then use this as your main strategy but i wouldn't recommend it if you have a bad day. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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milewilda
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September 02, 2019, 09:38:02 PM |
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hosseinimr93 (OP)
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September 03, 2019, 08:07:54 AM |
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I know Martingale strategy has already discussed as it's not something new. I just made a calculation of the chance when you use Martingale strategy and I shared it. I don't think such a calculation has been done before. Also, I didn't say it's profitable. I did the calculations to prove it's not profitable.
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carter34
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September 03, 2019, 08:14:59 AM |
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Also I didn't say it's profitable. I did the calculations to prove it's not profitable.
Martingale is a high risk level of trying to be profitable. Of course it is gambling and one of the methods. If it doesn't work for one does not mean it doesn't work for another but one thing we know is that it involves high risk and can wipe you off.
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DarkDays
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September 03, 2019, 08:22:12 AM |
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So long as there is no upper limit on bet size, and you have unlimited balance, then you should eventually win using the martingale method.
However, given that the house edge exists it is like comparing two infinite states, where one infinite is marginally bigger than the other.
Because of this, even with infinite balance and no bet size limit, the house is still more likely to get a lucky run that somehow empties your limitless balance.
Beyond that, most casinos have a max bet size or win amount that will eventually rekt you when using martingale.
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hosseinimr93 (OP)
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September 03, 2019, 08:33:48 AM |
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So long as there is no upper limit on bet size, and you have unlimited balance, then you should eventually win using the martingale method.
Even if you have all 21,000,000 million bitcoins in your balance it is mathematically proved that martingale strategy decreases your chance. The more you reduce the initial bet and increase your balance, the more you have to repeat the game to win a certain amount. Your chance of winning one game is increased, but your chance of winning the games for n times decreases.
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bitmover
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September 03, 2019, 11:42:36 AM |
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There is no really strategy that will make you have better chances against the house
If you are trying to make money gambling, you are like paying because you don't understand statistics.
What you can do is to pay to have some fun. You won't make money unless you are very lucky (which is ,win something highly improbable, against the odds). It is possible, but not probable
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omonuyak
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September 03, 2019, 04:23:11 PM |
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Martingale strategy is a part way to lose money in gambling and I am an example of that. I lose in dice playing using martingale strategy in July and I have not recovered from the loses up till now. It is something that doesn’t work and I do depend on my luck since I lost huge in that. No strategy work! Only luck work in gambling.
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Oilacris
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September 03, 2019, 05:02:57 PM |
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Martingale strategy is a part way to lose money in gambling and I am an example of that. I lose in dice playing using martingale strategy in July and I have not recovered from the loses up till now. It is something that doesn’t work and I do depend on my luck since I lost huge in that. No strategy work! Only luck work in gambling.
Its already been known that martingale or any strategies doesn't work with Dice or any luck based games neither that traditional martingale or reverse one(theres a lot of them). House do always win in the end because of the edge- it doesn't matter if you lower up your bet or double it up after a loss you would still have the same outcome if you weren't lucky enough.
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coin-investor
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September 03, 2019, 05:12:39 PM |
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Martingale is very attractive to use because you will always have a chance to regain your losses, but you will eventually lose, the only circumstances that you are going to win in Martingale are when you have unlimited funds to chase your losses.
I would not recommend martingale to newbies or those with limited funds it's a sure way to lose all your funds.
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Ryker1
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September 03, 2019, 05:43:03 PM |
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Well first, this is already discussed here for how many times regarding Martingale strategy. Well, actually there's no real strategy in gambling. Still, this is about our luck on how we gamble. There are too many people using this strategy now aside from that they think that it will increase the chances of winning. Well, Martingale strategy needs a huge of a fund before we consider you defeat the house edge or bankroll. It is very risky on your own. Indeed, a Martingale strategy is not reliable to give a high chance of winning.
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joshy23
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September 03, 2019, 05:52:09 PM |
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Martingale is very attractive to use because you will always have a chance to regain your losses, but you will eventually lose, the only circumstances that you are going to win in Martingale are when you have unlimited funds to chase your losses.
I would not recommend martingale to newbies or those with limited funds it's a sure way to lose all your funds.
Considering that you have unlimited funds but the house have a limitations, you also needs to consider that because of such limitations your chances to recover your loses will be not for sure, martingale has been a long time since many gamblers already loses using this system it's best to have your own style of playing to maximize your enjoyment.
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panjul07
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September 03, 2019, 06:16:23 PM |
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Martingale is very attractive to use because you will always have a chance to regain your losses, but you will eventually lose, the only circumstances that you are going to win in Martingale are when you have unlimited funds to chase your losses.
I would not recommend martingale to newbies or those with limited funds it's a sure way to lose all your funds.
You may have unlimited funds but the gambling site where you are going to play will always have limited bankroll, means that unlimited funds is useless if you want to use martingale strategy. Martingale will only work when you have unlimited balance and you are playing on a site with no maximum payout (unlimited bankroll) but I'm quite sure there is no sites with unlimited bankroll. If there is a site claims to have unlimited bankroll, then I can say that the site is high likely a scam site.
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TravelMug
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September 03, 2019, 07:36:07 PM |
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Huge bankroll + extreme luck is what makes Martingale system really works.
If your try to used it with limited bankroll then you are going to be busted soon. But if you get lucky you can extend your run. But in the gambling, the longer you played, the chances of you winning is is multiply because of the house edge.
So this is very effective if you have that two element but at the end of the day, house edge will take over. Winners here do have a lot of control so if you are greedy even though you already won because of this strategy then it's really your fault.
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Oceat
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September 03, 2019, 08:03:31 PM |
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Martingale is very attractive to use because you will always have a chance to regain your losses, but you will eventually lose, the only circumstances that you are going to win in Martingale are when you have unlimited funds to chase your losses.
I would not recommend martingale to newbies or those with limited funds it's a sure way to lose all your funds.
Chasing losses is not a good idea even if you say you do have unlimited funds the house will eventually benefit a lot of your efforts in the long run. Using a martingale strategy will make it easy to empty your funds if you continue chasing your losses. Unless if you are too lucky to recover your losses or could even win some profit in the long run. But i doubt it would really happen in real life or even a single person would experience it.
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irsykes
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September 03, 2019, 08:27:20 PM |
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Maybe like what people said above, martingale always discussed and there are no positive response about it. It means martingale is really bad and a lot of people already know it. For me, with any % that we increase our bet, every single click means different and chance is almost same. For me martingale not increase our winning chance because every single click will have same chance of win or lose. Only if we win, we can get back money that we already lose.
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emberbekas
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September 03, 2019, 08:30:28 PM |
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Martingale is very attractive to use because you will always have a chance to regain your losses, but you will eventually lose, the only circumstances that you are going to win in Martingale are when you have unlimited funds to chase your losses.
I would not recommend martingale to newbies or those with limited funds it's a sure way to lose all your funds.
You may have unlimited funds but the gambling site where you are going to play will always have limited bankroll, means that unlimited funds is useless if you want to use martingale strategy. Martingale will only work when you have unlimited balance and you are playing on a site with no maximum payout (unlimited bankroll) but I'm quite sure there is no sites with unlimited bankroll. If there is a site claims to have unlimited bankroll, then I can say that the site is high likely a scam site. True, every gambling site will mostly have a max bet policy which means the user cannot bet with the amount above it. Martingale is a well-known strategy in gambling but if we use it all the time then we will face a more difficult situation. Just like other strategies in gambling, if we never know how to end a session, most of the strategies will make us dizzy.
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AjithBtc
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September 03, 2019, 08:43:03 PM |
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Martingale is just a strategy, and this doesn't assure with the winning. It helps with increasing the probability of winning. As one of the user mentioned, if one has unlimited sum of funds then martingale will be more effective. This is all because of the lack of fund will cause a fearful spending which itself assure the loss.
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shield132
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September 03, 2019, 09:54:19 PM |
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At first can anyone tell me why do you have to use strategy against luck? Don't these people know meaning of luck? Luck is something that happens itself, independently, that's usually why beginners win firstly. Also it's pretty clear that player's luck is renewed every time, you can't built strategy on continues luck because every bet is built on new luck, that's how it works. It's like imagine you are building house but it falls on first attempt, how can you continue building? You have to start again.
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