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Author Topic: Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!  (Read 901 times)
fillippone
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September 27, 2019, 12:23:22 PM
Last edit: November 06, 2019, 09:00:57 AM by fillippone
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 #1

With Bakkt Futures launch, I see many people here on the forum asking what is a future, or simply getting the concept wrong, or again, confusing concepts and exchanging terms.
I will try in this thread to clarify a few points, trying to make things as simple as possible, and taking an example of real cases, using BAKKT and CME bitcoin futures when possible, or other examples.

FUTURES DEFINITION
Futures are financial contracts obligating the buyer (the seller) to purchase (to sell) an asset (called "underlying asset"), such as a physical commodity or a financial instrument, at a predetermined future date and price.

Let's see an example:



If I buy a BAKKT future at 7,942.5, means that on contract expiry, on Oct, 17th 2019, I have an obligation to buy a single bitcoin from Bakkt Warehouse at the price of USD 7,942.5. The actual delivery of the future will be performed the following day Oct, 18th 2019. I can trade this future until Oct, 16th 2019.

Similarly, if I sell a BAKKT future at 7,942.5, means that on contract expiry, on Oct, 17th 2019, I have an obligation to sell a single bitcoin from Bakkt Warehouse at the price of USD 7,942.5.

The following image details all the relevant dates for a future:



FTD (First Trade Date): initial date available for trading the future contract
LTD (Last Trade Date): final date available for trading the future contract
FND (First Notice Day): first date when the exchange can inform the holder of a long future position of the delivery of the underlying asset (Bitcoin in this case), it is the first date also when the exchange can inform the short holder he has to deliver the underlying to the point of delivery.
LND (Last Notice Date): it is the last date when the exchange can order perform the actions detailed above.
FDD (First Delivery Date): first date when the exchange can actually transfer to the the long future position the property of the underlying asset at the delivery point (in this case the Bitcoin at the BAKKT Warehouse)
LDD (First Delivery Date): similarly it's the last date when the exchange can actually transfer to the long future position the property of the underlying asset at the delivery point (in this case the Bitcoin at the BAKKT Warehouse). Once again in this case FDD and LDD coincide.
FSD (Final Settlement Date): it's the final date when payments are made between the future position holder and the exchange.

Futures contracts detail the quality and quantity and the point of delivery of the underlying asset; they are necessarily standardized as they are traded on an exchange. It is of an utter importance that the asset physically traded at the end of the future is of a given quantity and quality. It might be easy for a financial instrument while this is a huge constrain for physical commodities. Think of AAPL shares are all equals, while a barrel of oil can be very different regarding many qualities,

For example, the WTI future at the CME details the underlying asset in with the following definition found in the contract specification:

Quote
200101.A. Deliverable Crudes
1. Deliverable Crude Streams
Blends of West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) type light sweet crude streams are only deliverable if such blends constitute a pipeline's designated "common stream" shipment which meets the grade and quality specifications for domestic crude. Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (including any successor in such capacity, “Enterprise”) and Enbridge Pipeline (Ozark) LLC’s (including any successor in such capacity, “Enbridge”) Common Domestic Sweet (“DSW”) Streams that meet quality specifications in Sections 101.A.2.- 12. of this rule are deliverable as Domestic Crude.
2. Sulfur: 0.42% or less by weight as determined by ASTM Standard D-4294, or its latest revision;
3. Gravity: Not less than 37 degrees American Petroleum Institute (“API”), nor more than 42 degrees API as determined by ASTM Standard D-287, or its latest revision;
4. Viscosity: Maximum 60 Saybolt Universal Seconds at 100 degrees Fahrenheit as measured by ASTM Standard D-445 and as calculated for Saybolt Seconds by ASTM Standard D-2161;
5. Reid vapor pressure: Less than 9.5 pounds per square inch at 100 degrees Fahrenheit, as determined by ASTM Standard D-5191-96, or its latest revision;
6. Basic Sediment, water and other impurities: Less than 1% as determined by ASTM D-96-88 or D-4007, or their latest revisions;
7. Pour Point: Not to exceed 50 degrees Fahrenheit as determined by ASTM Standard D-97;
8. Micro Method Carbon Residue: 2.40% or less by mass; as determined by ASTM Standard D4530-15, or its latest revision;
© Copyright 2009 New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. All rights reserved. Page 2 of 6
9. Total Acid Number (TAN): 0.28 mg KOH/g or less as determined by the first inflection point; using ASTM Standard D664-11a (2017), or its latest revision;
10. Nickel: 8 parts per million (ppm) or less by mass; as determined by ASTM Standard D5708-15, Test Method B, or its latest revision;
11. Vanadium: 15 ppm or less by mass; as determined by ASTM Standard D5708-15, Test Method B, or its latest revision;
12. High-Temperature Simulated Distillation (HTSD) as determined by ASTM Standard D7169-16, or its latest revision, as follows:
(a) Light Ends <220°F by HTSD: Not more than 19% by mass;
(b) 50% Point by HTSD: 470°F- 570°F;
(c) Vacuum Residuum >1020°F by HTSD: Not more than 16% by mass.
200102. TRADING SPECIFICATIONS

You see that detailing the quality of a barrel of oil is way much more complicated than detailing the underlying asset of the BAKKT future:

Quote
1 Bitcoin

Here we have a difference with CME future.
While one future contract in BAKKT controls 1 Bitcoin, 1 future on CME controls 5 bitcoins:

Quote
Contract Unit   5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)

So while BAKKT future has a nominal value of around USD 8,000, CME future has a notional value of 5*USD 8,000 = USD 40,000

Also contract size influences minimum price movement: the lower the contract value, the lower the minimum price movement (tick value):

BAKKT
Quote
Minimum Price Fluctuation
$2.50 per bitcoin ($2.50 per contract).

CME:
Quote
Minimum Price Fluctuation   Outright: 5.00 per bitcoin=$25.00
This means that BAKKT contract can move from 8,000 to 8,002.5, meaning the holder of a contract gains 2.5 USD, while CME future can move from 8,000 to 8,005, meaning the holder of a contract gains 25 USD.


It is not compulsory to actually deliver the underlying assets.

A first differentiation between futures is the one between physically settled versus cash settled:

According to Wikipedia (minor edits for clarity)

Quote
  • Physical delivery − the amount specified of the underlying asset of the contract is delivered by the seller of the contract to the exchange, and by the exchange to the buyers of the contract. Physical delivery is common with commodities and bonds. In practice, it occurs only on a minority of contracts. [...] The Nymex crude futures contract uses this method of settlement upon expiration.
  • Cash settlement − a cash payment is made based on the underlying reference rate [...]. The parties settle by paying/receiving the loss/gain related to the contract in cash when the contract expires.[11] [...]

Here comes the first innovation of BAKKT futures, which are physically settled, an actual bitcoin is delivered to the buyer of the future; CME futures instead are cash settled, meaning at the end of the future the dollar equivalent of a Bitcoin is paid to the holder of the future.

Regarding the point of delivery, WTI is again much more complicated than Bitcoin.

WTI:
Quote
Delivery shall be made free-on-board ("F.O.B.") at any pipeline or storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma with pipeline access to Enterprise, Cushing storage or Enbridge, Cushing storage. Delivery shall be made in accordance with all applicable Federal executive orders and all applicable Federal, State and local laws and regulations.

At buyer's option, delivery shall be made by any of the following methods: (1) by interfacility transfer ("pumpover") into a designated pipeline or storage facility with access to seller's incoming pipeline or storage facility; (2) by in-line (or in-system) transfer, or book-out of title to the buyer; or (3) if the seller agrees to such transfer and if the facility used by the seller allows for such transfer, without physical movement of product, by in-tank transfer of title to the buyer.

BAKKT:

Quote
Delivery Locations
Bakkt Warehouse

Pretty simple then. BAKKT is actually providing clients with a warehouse (basically, a wallet) where they can deposit their bitcoin to be traded against their future.

In real markets, the actual delivery rate of the underlying goods specified in futures contracts is very low: only few of the traded futures get ever settled, physically or financially. Most futures positions are actually closed, or exited before the actual expiry of the future, performing an opposite action: buyers (sellers) of the future sell (buy) an equivalent quantity of the same future contract offsetting their position toward the exchange, effectively exiting your position without taking the delivery of the future.

This lead to another concept in future: open interest and volume.
Again from wikipedia:
Quote
Open interest (also known as open contracts or open commitments) refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled (offset by delivery)

For each buyer of a futures contract there must be a seller. From the time the buyer or seller opens the contract until the counter-party closes it, that contract is considered 'open'.

Volume instead is quite a straightforward definition:

Quote
Volume is the number of shares or contracts traded in a security or an entire market during a given period of time. For every buyer, there is a seller, and each transaction contributes to the count of total volume. That is, when buyers and sellers agree to make a transaction at a certain price, it is considered one transaction. If only five transactions occur in a day, the volume for the day is five

Let's see an example:

  • A sells a future to B: Total volume is 1, open interest is 1
  • C sells a future to B: Total volume is 2, open interest is 2
  • D sells a future to A: Total volume is 3, open interest is 2

In the last trade A closed his position, who was "passed" do D: hence the total positions open on the market is unchanged to 2: B is long 2 contracts, C and D are short 1 each.

  • B sells a future to C: Total volume is 4, open interest is 1
  • B sells a future to D: Total volume is 5, open interest is 0

After those 5 trades (volume= 5), there is no more open interest, all positions on the future are closed, everyone is flat, no final settlement  happens at the exchange.

On BAKKT we get informations on Volumes only, not open interest (UPDATE: Open Interest figures are now available via Bloomberg Terminal see this update).




On the 25th of September 131 contracts were traded, but we don't know anything on how open interest changed.

On the CME we get both informations:




On the 25th of September 5,824   contracts were traded on the September expiry, there are a total of 1171 contracts open, 171 less than yesterday closes (actually OI are not updated on real times, so both those figures relate to one day before, but you get the concept).


FUTURE USES

Futures can be used to hedge or speculate on the price movement of the underlying asset.

For example, an bitcoin sensitive business (think of a miner) could use the future to reduce his profit dependency on bitcoin prices movements, locking in a certain level of price, thus reducing risks, selling an appropriate quantity of bitcoin futures. In case of bitcoin prices going up, profit on mining would go up, but that would be countered by a loss on the bitcoin future, thus erasing the economic impact of such price movement of the underlying assets. In the opposite scenario, a raise of the bitcoin price would translate in more profits coming the mining operations, but the short position of on the future would cause a similar size loss. In both scenarios then the final profit of the miner would be unaffected.
This process is called hedging: the purpose of hedging is not to gain from favorable price movements in the underlying assets, the bitcoin in this example, but prevent losses from unfavorable price movements and maintain a predetermined financial result: the miner actually hedged herself from bitcoin price movements attaining the same level of profitability with any bitcoin price scenario. Of course it forfeited gains in case of bitcoin price increases, but protected herself from a scenario of reduced prices that could potentially end the mining operation in the first place.


The second main use for Future contract is speculation.
To speculate means profiting on the future position from movements in the prices of the underlying asset.
If a market participants wants to speculate on an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the future, he could gain by purchasing a futures contract and selling it later at a higher price on the future market or profiting from the favorable price difference versus the spot market once the future has settled (taking delivering of the underlying asset after the settlement of the future and selling it on the spot market).
The risk is of course is to face a loss in case of an adverse price movement, a slump in prices in this case. If the price ends up being lower than what it was when the future position was opened the holder of a long position will find himself buying the underlying at the set prices at the moment of trade inception, and selling the underlying asset at a lower price on the spot market, thus incurring in a loss.
On the opposite, he who wants to profit from a lower price, should sell the future, effectively gaining from buying at a lower price to settle the future selling it at a previously determined higher price to the holder of the long position of the future.

FUTURE PRICE SLOPE: CONTANGO AND BACKWARDATION

Let’s look at the futures currently quoted at the CME:
According to CME the following Contracts must be Quoted:

   Listed Contracts   Quarterly contracts (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec) listed for 2 consecutive quarters and the nearest 2 serial months.


In fact the quoted contracts are the following:

   FUTURE      MONTH      LAST TRADE DATE      PRICE       OPEN INTEREST   
   BTCV9      Oct-19      25/10/2019      8275      2142   
   BTCX9      Nov-19      29/11/2019      8290      248   
   BTCZ9      Dec-19      27/12/2019      8360      943   
   BTCH0      Mar-20      27/03/2020      0      0   
                              


September expiry has just expired at the moment of writing so the two main cycles expiries are DEC 19 and MAR 20 (just quoted, not traded yet), while the serial ones are OCT 19 and NOV 19.
We note that the bigger open interest is on the front contract, while the serial contract has little interest, and the other serial is too new to have any open interest (it has been quoted only since a few hours).

If we look at the prices we see those are rising: the calendar spread (the difference between prices on different expiries) is positive.
One should think that this is some kind of “market expectations of rising bitcoin prices” between today and December.
Well, this is wrong!
The best expectation for the price in the future is the spot price, as it incorporates all the public information set available to price also future prices. If I had the certainty of a rise in Bitcoin price in one year, or if I simply had a rational expectation on this, I could simply but Bitcoin, making the price rise, and hence moving the spot price closer to the future price. This is, with some oversimplification, a non arbitrage conditions linking pricing of a same asset in different times.
The future price should always be something like that:

Future prices= spot price (1+ risk free rate) + cost of carry – convenience yield.

Let’s see what does it mean:

Spot price: as we have seen the best estimate for a future price is the spot price, because all the informations about the future are already discounted in market price (weak market efficiency à la Fama) .
Funding Costs: are represented by the parte (1+ risk free rate): buying a bitcoin and trading future require financing the position. Low interest rates globally tended to subdue the importance of this factor, which should be a cost and hence tends to increase the future prices.
Cost of carry: or the cost holding bitcoin until the future maturity, this is what mainly influences the slope of the future prices being upward or downward sloping. Cost of carry is the cost for storing a Bitcoin. It might be low for Bitcoin compared to other future underlying assets (think of storing a bitcoin instead of storing a gold bullion, or a barrel of oil), but alas, insurance costs and storage at an industrial level cannot be neglected. To sum up, if I incur into a cost to store my underlying asset, this mean that the future price I want to sell this asset will be higher than spot, to compensate for that such costs, hence driving future price up.
The convenience yield is the value of having the availability of use of the underlying asset until future maturity. It is particularly relevant for financial asset, representing the coupon or dividend paid from spot date until future maturity. It can be thought like a negative cost of storage, a sort of “income for storage”, or profit coming from holding the asset itself. In case of bitcoin the convenience yield could potentially come from earnt interest coming from lending my Bitcoin to an exchange or a third party (think of BlockFI): If I earn an interest lending my bitcoin to BlockFi I can I will be willing to buy them spot and sell them in the future below current market price, if the difference is more than compensated by interests earned.

The reason why future prices exhibit a positive (or negative) sloping shape has to do with the cost of carry of the position versus the convenience yield: if the convenience yield is lower than cost of carry, think of any physical commodity, then the future curve will exhibit a contango, while if the convenience yield is higher than cost of storage (this is true in many financial asset future) then the future price slope will be characterized by a backwardation.
The shape of the curve can also vary over time: while it is on contango today, it hasn’t always been like this as it was in backwardation at the timing of CME/CBOE future launch. It’s always worth a think considering which forces are driving the slope of the curve in a sort of “Mixed nature” underlying like bitcoin.

COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS:

Every exchange has a "commitment of traders" report, where you can get insight on the positioning of players on the exchange.
The commitment of traders report for Bitcoin Futures at CME (the only relevant one for the moment) can be found at the following link and selecting Equity Indexes, then Cryptocurrencies and finally Bitcoin as Underlying:



I strongly recommend you to read the User Guide detailing all the technicalities of how this chart is made, but here I will tell you the main thing:

of course the total open long positions are equal to short positions, if looking at an aggregate quantities: Open Interest is equal to the sum of Longs (or Shorts) + Spread positions.
This is clearer if we look at a breakdown by table:



of course different type of player have different approach to trading, so knowing if they are long or short can be somewhat useful.

Even more interesting is studying the evolution of long/short balance , Volume and Open Interest: this can give us an hint on how the positioning of players is influencing the price action.


USEFUL LINKS:

Another resource i strongly support is the following course by CME:

INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES: Definition of a Futures Contract

That is actually a very complete course on futures, providing very useful information on futures definitions, uses, and all the implementation details at CME. Definitely worth a read.


This post is only an initial version and covering only a few topics.
I can go in deeper details or cover additional topics.

For sure a few topics I want to explain in greater details:

  • Term structure (contango/backwardation)
  • Margins on the open positions (Initial margins/Variation margins/Marking to Market)
  • Commitments of traders example

I am btw open to your suggestions to improve the thread. Let me know how to improve this post.

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September 27, 2019, 01:33:46 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #2

Good thread, even though this isn't exactly Beginner material. No beginner should be trying futures just yet. They'd do better to learn more about the underlying tech, or buying directly from either an exchange or some other trusted individual or company OTC or P2P.

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September 27, 2019, 01:43:11 PM
 #3

If you think there's a more appropriate section for this thread, please make a proposal.
I understand what you mean, but this thread is meant to make everyone understand the mechanics of a future contract, it is not a financial advice.
Probably adding a little disclaimer on the first post then.
I will detail also how leverage on the future works, explaining why these are highly speculative instruments.


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September 27, 2019, 01:44:25 PM
 #4

Merit worthy thread, I've always been confused by futures and how they tie in to shorting and this makes it pretty clear.
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September 27, 2019, 08:50:59 PM
Last edit: September 27, 2019, 09:59:04 PM by UNOE
Merited by Dabs (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #5

If you think there's a more appropriate section for this thread, please make a proposal.
I understand what you mean, but this thread is meant to make everyone understand the mechanics of a future contract, it is not a financial advice.
Probably adding a little disclaimer on the first post then.
I will detail also how leverage on the future works, explaining why these are highly speculative instruments.

It might be better suited in the same section I had my thread regarding bakkt before it officially launched:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5186550

It got the most exposure for those who frequent the forums. Due to I almost didn't see your thread since I rarely check the beginners section and wouldn't think of advanced material should be a topic someone who is new to the forums and crypto in general would comprehend more or less be interested in to start of on.

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September 28, 2019, 02:14:23 PM
 #6



Volume instead is quite a straightforward definition:

Quote
Volume is the number of shares or contracts traded in a security or an entire market during a given period of time. For every buyer, there is a seller, and each transaction contributes to the count of total volume. That is, when buyers and sellers agree to make a transaction at a certain price, it is considered one transaction. If only five transactions occur in a day, the volume for the day is five

Lets see an example:

  • A sells a future to B: Total volume is 1, open interest is 1
  • C sells a future to B: Total volume is 2, open interest is 2
  • D sells a future to A: Total volume is 3, open interest is 2

In the last trade A closed his position, who was "passed" do D: hence the total positions open on the market is unchanged to 2: B is long 2 contracts, C and D are short 1 each.

  • B sells a future to C: Total volume is 4, open interest is 1
  • B sells a future to D: Total volume is 5, open interest is 0

After those 5 trades (volume= 5), there is no more open interest, all positions on the future are closed, everyone is flat, no final settlement  happens at the exchange.

On BAKKT we get informations on Volumes only, not open interest.




On the 25th of September 131 contracts were traded, but we don't know anything on how open interest changed.


I was not aware of this (bolded)!

Thanks for the in depth explanation of the workings of these different systems.

Now would you like to tackle and add the options on futures on cme?

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/options-on-futures-for-equity-traders/why-options-on-futures-gives-added-benefit-of-diversifying-risk.html

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September 28, 2019, 02:18:52 PM
 #7

Thanks for the in depth explanation of the workings of these different systems.

Now would you like to tackle and add the options on futures on cme?

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/options-on-futures-for-equity-traders/why-options-on-futures-gives-added-benefit-of-diversifying-risk.html

Options are a much more complicated issue.
Lot of advanced math on these. Or even without math, if I try to explain “intuitively” lot of stuff to discuss.
I can try, once I have finished this, if I have enough supporter on this issue.
Let me know!


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September 28, 2019, 03:32:04 PM
Last edit: September 28, 2019, 06:58:48 PM by Gyrsur
Merited by Hueristic (1), HairyMaclairy (1), fillippone (1)
 #8

Thanks for the in depth explanation of the workings of these different systems.

Now would you like to tackle and add the options on futures on cme?

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/options-on-futures-for-equity-traders/why-options-on-futures-gives-added-benefit-of-diversifying-risk.html

Options are a much more complicated issue.
Lot of advanced math on these. Or even without math, if I try to explain “intuitively” lot of stuff to discuss.
I can try, once I have finished this, if I have enough supporter on this issue.
Let me know!

Hull Trading Company (acquired by Goldman Sachs in 1999) was very successful in trading with Options. very interesting topic too.

The Wall Street Code - VPRO documentary - 2013

EDIT: follow up with an other good video about the Flash Crash 2010 - VPRO documentary - 2011 (had the "pleasure" to experience this event in may 2010 with a huge open position in EUR/USD as a Newbie Roll Eyes )

EDIT2: Quants - The Alchemists of Wall Street - VPRO documentary

Derivatives like Futures and Options are part of the formation of BTC prices since some time. Whether we like it or not the best way to adapt it is to learn how they are working and how we can profit from them.
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September 28, 2019, 04:14:35 PM
Last edit: November 07, 2019, 03:46:53 PM by Hueristic
 #9

^^^--- Thx guys IOU both sM+

Maybe you should combine your efforts and make a guide for Regular Bitcoiners to understand the impact these new movers are and will be having on the markets..


Fucking h8 goldman Ballsacks!


EdiT:


This is a great video!

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September 29, 2019, 08:28:21 AM
 #10

I don't understand why you said nothing about the CoT (Commitments of Traders) ? It's very important in futures markets.

 
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September 29, 2019, 09:12:03 AM
 #11

I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.

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September 29, 2019, 09:31:41 AM
Last edit: September 29, 2019, 09:56:10 AM by Gyrsur
 #12

I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.

it looks like it will become a full time job  Grin  take your time Buddy! all with some brain will be patient.

btw, my "thank you" post got deleted by "Moderator: MiningBuddy".  Roll Eyes  unfortunately don't feel happy with Thermos private playground anymore and working on something for real Quants.

Derivatives like Futures and Options are part of the formation of BTC prices since some time. Whether we like it or not the best way to adapt it is to learn how they are working and how we can profit from them.
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September 29, 2019, 09:53:38 AM
 #13

I said it is still work in progress.
I will add this when I have described the more important things I have detailed in the OP.
Adding to the list though.

Alright. I'm waiting patiently. I've been wanting to know and understand what futures contracts mean. I always hear about CME futures opening and expiry without having even the slightest idea about it. But thanks to your thread, I've gotten to know a thing or two. I'll be on the lookout for when you add new content.

 
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September 29, 2019, 10:06:38 AM
 #14

Exactly.
This is a beginner section posts, and books have been written of futures, and careers have been built on them. So I eventually have to draw a line on the sand!
I don’t know how to do if I will ever dare into writing a similar post on options.

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September 29, 2019, 10:33:38 AM
 #15

It is helpful if you can add a section that guides on how to get expired days of Bitcoin futures on different platforms, CME, CBEO, Bakkt. I do believe that Exprired days of Bitcoin future contracts have very big impacts on bitcoin price around those days. Price can move upwards or downwards considerably around expired days.

Honestly, I have still not known how to get Bitcoin future contract's expired days. I much appreciate if you or anyone else can help.

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September 29, 2019, 05:57:01 PM
Last edit: September 30, 2019, 09:11:33 AM by fillippone
Merited by babo (2), psycodad (1)
 #16

It is helpful if you can add a section that guides on how to get expired days of Bitcoin futures on different platforms, CME, CBEO, Bakkt. I do believe that Exprired days of Bitcoin future contracts have very big impacts on bitcoin price around those days. Price can move upwards or downwards considerably around expired days.

Honestly, I have still not known how to get Bitcoin future contract's expired days. I much appreciate if you or anyone else can help.
Expiry dates are easy to find on the description of the contract:

CME:
Quote
Termination Of Trading Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month. If that day is not a business day in both the U.K. and the US, trading terminates on the preceding day that is a business day for both the U.K. and the U.S..

So with a simple calendar of with some excel sorcery you can easily find why you are looking for.
Tomorrow I will anyway provide you with a list of all the past expiries.

EDIT:  here you go:


   Ticker      Month      Last Trade      First Notice      First Delivery      Last Delivery   
   BTCX8   Nov 18   30/11/2018   30/11/2018   30/11/2018   30/11/2018
   BTCZ8      Dec 18      28/12/2018      28/12/2018      28/12/2018      28/12/2018   
   BTCF9      Jan 19      25/01/2019      25/01/2019      25/01/2019      25/01/2019   
   BTCG9      Feb 19      22/02/2019      22/02/2019      22/02/2019      22/02/2019   
   BTCH9      Mar 19      29/03/2019      29/03/2019      29/03/2019      29/03/2019   
   BTCJ9      Apr 19      26/04/2019      26/04/2019      26/04/2019      26/04/2019   
   BTCK9      May 19      31/05/2019      31/05/2019      31/05/2019      31/05/2019   
   BTCM9      Jun 19      28/06/2019      28/06/2019      28/06/2019      28/06/2019   
   BTCN9      Jul 19      26/07/2019      26/07/2019      26/07/2019      26/07/2019   
   BTCQ9      Aug 19      30/08/2019      30/08/2019      30/08/2019      30/08/2019   
   BTCU9      Sep 19      27/09/2019      27/09/2019      27/09/2019      27/09/2019   
   BTCV9      Oct 19      25/10/2019      25/10/2019      25/10/2019      25/10/2019   
   BTCX9      Nov 19      29/11/2019      29/11/2019      29/11/2019      29/11/2019   
   BTCZ9      Dec 19      27/12/2019      27/12/2019      27/12/2019      27/12/2019   
   BTCH0      Mar 20      27/03/2020      27/03/2020      27/03/2020      27/03/2020   
                                    
                                 

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October 01, 2019, 01:49:36 PM
 #17

Bitcoin is possibly more fungible then oil is an idea from reading that though I think oil when an oil oil field is established is then quite consistent in its quality and exchangeable as a barrel with most oil of that type.   Venezuela has this problem of oil which does not qualify for sale without refinement, that little detail has made them poorer sadly.

Quote
I have an obligation to buy a single bitcoin from Bakkt Warehouse at the price of USD 7,942.5.

Are they really obligated to buy, if BTC goes to $1 then the contract expires worthless surely.   It doesnt then become a liability where I owe 7491 in difference from the asset to what I promised to pay.   Or is that options Im thinking of.

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fillippone
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October 01, 2019, 01:58:53 PM
Merited by duesoldi (1)
 #18

Bitcoin is possibly more fungible then oil is an idea from reading that though I think oil when an oil oil field is established is then quite consistent in its quality and exchangeable as a barrel with most oil of that type.   Venezuela has this problem of oil which does not qualify for sale without refinement, that little detail has made them poorer sadly.

Quote
I have an obligation to buy a single bitcoin from Bakkt Warehouse at the price of USD 7,942.5.

Are they really obligated to buy, if BTC goes to $1 then the contract expires worthless surely.   It doesnt then become a liability where I owe 7491 in difference from the asset to what I promised to pay.   Or is that options Im thinking of.

You are obliged to pay.
You actually have already have already paid it, as the exchange doesn’t wait until last day to ask you 7,941 USD: he rather ask you to cover the margins daily.
This is something I am going to detail in one of the next improvement of the OP post.

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October 01, 2019, 08:30:47 PM
 #19

Exactly.
This is a beginner section posts, and books have been written of futures, and careers have been built on them. So I eventually have to draw a line on the sand!

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October 01, 2019, 10:04:52 PM
 #20

OMG, im shocked, really its walls of text to explain one way of investing? I mean why there is need to create such complex ways of investing in Bitcoin world?
Buying is best investment, why complicate things? Often its to confuse less bright or people less beign able to manage their funds, to make them make wrong decisions and loose money.
I really don't like complicated instruments of investment, banks love to create them to steal money from customers over and over. Its really sad how many people falling for that.

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