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Author Topic: Everything you wanted to know about BTC futures but were afraid to ask!  (Read 3956 times)
fillippone (OP)
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May 10, 2020, 09:12:25 PM
 #101

Very nice find.
It’s obviously a typo no one noticed until now. It might be originated from an earlier version of the article referring to different data and probably not correctly updated.
I corrected the text and now should be pretty clear.

Thank you for pointing out.

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May 11, 2020, 01:58:28 AM
 #102

Very well explained ☺️☺️☺️Thank you so much🥰it's mean every contract we earned $2.50? now I understand why I need more Bitcoin for my daughter's future ..
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May 11, 2020, 10:47:56 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 02:01:04 AM by fillippone
Merited by Paolo.Demidov (2)
 #103

We are approaching the halving.

Volumes and Open interest at CME are on the rise.
They have completely recovered from the liquidation suffered at the march market crash and are now heading towards new highs.



Actually I expect this figure to decline at Close of business as the  current dump will of course mean long position liquidations.

From the CME COT, lower panel in the following graph, we can see the bulk of the long open interest is the retail investor, who got invested only recently.



I am expecting then this category will be the most hit from this last wave of liquidations.

Interesting times ahead!


EDIT:

Coindesk wrote an article on the same topic:

CME Says Volume Surge Shows Strong Institutional Interest Before Bitcoin Halving

Quote
Open interest – contracts that haven't settled – in both futures and options came in at just under 9,800 (around $423 million-worth of bitcoin) and 555 contracts (roughly $4.8 million) respectively on May 7. Average daily open interest is up 33 percent from where it was this time last year, CME's note said.

"With bitcoin halving set to take place on this week, CME Bitcoin futures and options have seen a ramp-up in trading activity ahead of this major event," the exchange said. "Large open interest holders in Bitcoin futures reached a record of 62 during the week of April 14, reflecting strong institutional interest."






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kaicrypzen
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May 11, 2020, 04:02:39 PM
Last edit: May 11, 2020, 05:37:04 PM by kaicrypzen
 #104

Very nice find.
It’s obviously a typo no one noticed until now. It might be originated from an earlier version of the article referring to different data and probably not correctly updated.
I corrected the text and now should be pretty clear.

Thank you for pointing out.

Anytime.

I was starting to wonder if I missed some easy or complex calculations. Thank you for updating it and thank you for writing it. Now I can go back to reading Smiley.

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May 30, 2020, 07:39:55 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 01:55:46 AM by fillippone
 #105

This post is the equivalent of this another one regarding options.

This post analyses how the derivatives market has been positioning itself before the halving. Future posts will monitor this positioning, its evolution, and the general market dynamics after the halving. I hope that we will learn something observing markets before and after this so important moment.

Bitcoin futures are traded in a variety of  flavours at different exchanges. The most liquid exchanges are definitely out of reach for the traditional investors, so l  the analysis will focus on the “traditional” regulated trading venues like CME and BAKKT, which are in the reach of the majority of the investment community, as those are the only venues able to handle their many regulatory and operational requirements.

Bitcoin trading volumes and derivatives open interest have been growing steadily in the last months. CME, and also Bakkt to a lesser degree, have been growing steadily, and their funds inflow was from “institutional investors”, not the whales and private investors trading with leveraged accounts on unregulated exchanges. Open interest is at historical high, after the collapse observed during the mid march market rout: investors reinstated the long positions they had before the crash, and that got liquidated by exchanges - this observation also clears the “derivatives market” as a potential source for bitcoin market crash in these weeks).





From the Commitment of Traders Reports at the CME we see that coming into halving the short leveraged accounts have closed their shorts, while the long have increased their positions.



Regarding the shape of the forward curve, we see that the contango still persists, even if the future curve is way flatter than before the market crash in march, then reducing the profitability of cash and carry trades.

As I said, in a future post I will continue this analysis to see how halving impacted option markets.

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JayJuanGee
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May 30, 2020, 06:13:57 PM
 #106

This post is the equivalent of this another one regarding options.

I did not realize that you had started two topics that seem to be the same topic, in the same section and in the same language.  Is there some kind of mistake?  Shouldn't one of the threads be locked...? ... sure there could be some kind of a reference in a continuing thread to a locked thread.  Is there a difference between the two threads or some kind of reason that two threads serves some meaningful purpose?

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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May 30, 2020, 06:47:36 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #107

This post is the equivalent of this another one regarding options.

I did not realize that you had started two topics that seem to be the same topic, in the same section and in the same language.  Is there some kind of mistake?  Shouldn't one of the threads be locked...? ... sure there could be some kind of a reference in a continuing thread to a locked thread.  Is there a difference between the two threads or some kind of reason that two threads serves some meaningful purpose?

Sorry but I disagree.
Those two topics are different.
This one is aimed at explaining and discussing bitcoin futures.
The other one is aimed at explaining bitcoin options.

Those two instruments are quite complicated financial derivative of bitcoin: future is a linear derivative, meaning its price change with a fixed ratio with the one of bitcoin, while options are non linear derivatives, meaning the price of the option changes in a non linear way with the price of bitcoin.

As this difference involve quite a different approach to pricing and use of those instrument, I decided to open two different thread.
Also this is meant to discuss specific option market taxonomy (volatility, smiles, Greeks) that are irrelevant for futures.

Last bit not least I think having two different thread allows more specific questions about the instrument asked from the forum. As always those threads are meant to learn something.

Hope this clarify and more precisely define my choices.



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JayJuanGee
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May 30, 2020, 07:55:33 PM
 #108

This post is the equivalent of this another one regarding options.

I did not realize that you had started two topics that seem to be the same topic, in the same section and in the same language.  Is there some kind of mistake?  Shouldn't one of the threads be locked...? ... sure there could be some kind of a reference in a continuing thread to a locked thread.  Is there a difference between the two threads or some kind of reason that two threads serves some meaningful purpose?

Sorry but I disagree.
Those two topics are different.
This one is aimed at explaining and discussing bitcoin futures.
The other one is aimed at explaining bitcoin options.

Those two instruments are quite complicated financial derivative of bitcoin: future is a linear derivative, meaning its price change with a fixed ratio with the one of bitcoin, while options are non linear derivatives, meaning the price of the option changes in a non linear way with the price of bitcoin.

As this difference involve quite a different approach to pricing and use of those instrument, I decided to open two different thread.
Also this is meant to discuss specific option market taxonomy (volatility, smiles, Greeks) that are irrelevant for futures.

Last bit not least I think having two different thread allows more specific questions about the instrument asked from the forum. As always those threads are meant to learn something.

Hope this clarify and more precisely define my choices.

Fair enough...

I misread futures/options, and then prior to today, I had not subscribed to that options thread... so yeah, I agree that they are different topics and they serve a purpose, like you just reiterated..

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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August 21, 2020, 12:29:24 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #109

This is something I wanted to talk about since a long time:

Stablecoin Demand May Drop if Traders Abandon Bitcoin ‘Cash and Carry’ Strategy

Quote
Institutional demand for stablecoins may cool because yield on “carry trades” has been cut in half since Monday.

The annualized rolling one-month futures basis shot as high as 28% at the start of the week on the Malta-based cryptocurrency exchange OKEx, the biggest in terms of open interest. That was the highest premium since February, according to data provided by the crypto derivatives research firm Skew.

That premium, however, dropped to 14% in under 48 hours. In other words, the carry strategy, if initiated now and held until next Friday, will yield an annualized return of 14%, down from 28% on Monday.

Carry trading, or cash and carry arbitrage, is a market-neutral strategy, one that seeks to profit from both increasing and decreasing prices in one or more markets. It involves buying the asset in the spot market and simultaneously selling a futures contract against it when the futures contract is trading at a premium to the spot price.


Cash and Carry is a market neutral strategy used on every financial future markets,, when the future misalign with the forward price. This difference "the base", can be "cashed and carried out" by any arbitrageur".
This kind of activity is the precise reason why usually the two markets are very much aligned.
Of course as the expiry of the future nears,  the difference between the future price and the spot price deceases, so mispricing are very difficult to experience, and even more difficult to exploit (think about the WTI future going negative a couple of days before the expiry, this gigantic misalignment was created right because there was an extreme difficulty in catching the falling knife.

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August 26, 2020, 09:52:15 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 01:29:34 AM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #110

Finally BTC market moved a little bit.
I read enthusiasm here and there for "volumes picking up" and "institutional money flooding the markets", so I just wanted to shed some light on this.

A little foreword to restate my thought about derivatives.
Of course I think derivatives are a good thing for bitcoin, as more liquid markets are a good tool for investors to do a more effective price discovery of bitcoin.
OF course in the short period this can introduce some volatility (insert here "derivatives manipulation" or "gamma trading induced market crash" conspiracy theories"), but I think those markets are beneficial to bitcoin in the long run.
As I am here for the long run, and not daily trading, I think whatever can help discovering the true value of bitcoin, is welcome into the arena.



Cryptocompare July Exchange review gives us a few good information on how exchange volumes moved these last month, I will try to update them a little bit using skew.com and other data.

June and July volumes exibhit a positive momentum, but we are still far from the top volumes reached during May.



One thing to notice is the constant increase of the derivatives volume compared to the total, now at 41% and consistently up since months.
BEar in mind that here "derivatives" refers to the combined value of bitcoin futures and options added up.

Looking specifically at Derivatives exchange we see the "unregulated exchanges" still play the biggest part, getting most of the volume share. CME and BAKKT are having good results lately, but still they are tiny compared to biggest players:

If you squint your eyes you can see CME, Bakkt is subpixel dimension.


If you squint your eyes you can see CME, Bakkt is subpixel dimension.
August: different month, same story


It honestly puzzles me how tiny are legacy exchanges compared to "unregulated" exchanges. I bet these is a lot of technical knowledge on these exchange, and as per some interviews I read, also their matching engine is still faster and most efficient (Bitfinex vs Nasdaq, to be specific). So I am guessing how they are so much lagging behind. Probably regulation is playing a huge part here.

BAkkt celebrated their record volume in August, still we are talking about peanuts:



125 Mios in Daily trading wouldn't make them visible yet on the aggregate volume chart. Quite disappointing to be honest.



One quick word about options, even if this specifically would pertain to the Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask! thread, I think it is fair to add it here.


Deribit had a 585 mios record volume on 27th of July, but you see a consistent increase in volumes afterwards.




Deribit experienced a record volume in July, surpassing 4 BLN USD cumulated during the whole month, but I can see them beating that record in August
CME options volumes  have been declining this month, while BAKKT is not  present, with only sporadic trading.


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August 27, 2020, 08:45:22 PM
Merited by fillippone (2), JayJuanGee (1)
 #111

And it seems that it has a negative effect on the price of BTC as the schedule options are going to expire today (close to 58 BTC). And yeah, it's really interesting to see Deribit really doing good.


Latest data from Skew

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August 28, 2020, 07:34:34 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 01:28:07 AM by fillippone
 #112

And it seems that it has a negative effect on the price of BTC as the schedule options are going to expire today (close to 58 BTC). And yeah, it's really interesting to see Deribit really doing good.


Latest data from Skew

Interesting, even if I tend not to give too much credit to expiry manipulation, rather than I credit Powell for this volatility.
Also Deribit had some system failure, that hindered trading.
Anyway please comment on options on the other thread: Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!
Those two threads already are very similar (some users didn't even realised they were two different ones) I would like to avoid confusion.


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September 16, 2020, 07:56:48 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 01:23:32 AM by fillippone
 #113

Bakkt Futures hitting a new record.

Quote
Tuesday's numbers:

Chart with upwards trend Volume: 17745 ($192.84 million, +61%)  (New ATH Rocket)
Rocket All time high: 17745 (9/15/2020)
Money bag Open interest: $12.60 million (+13%)


https://twitter.com/BakktBot/status/1306115788995260424?s=20

Numbers looks pretty solid per BAKKT standards: Undolfed graph seems to confirm:


The problem is when you put those numbers in perspective: leaving alone every major exchange and concetnrating on CME only the situation is not looking good either:
VOlumes: BAKKT Volume are on the rise, but a tiny fraction of CME
Open Interest: BAKKT is barely visible

Bear in mind CME is only a fraction, as per volumes and Open Interest, of trading on BitMex or OKeX exchanges.



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September 20, 2020, 12:22:09 AM
Last edit: October 19, 2023, 04:12:23 AM by TravelMug
 #114

Looks like we have a massive bitcoin options (10,000 BTC) will expire at the end of the month. Most of them on September 25. So it will be interesting as what it can bring to the ecosystem, specially in the 25th.



Bitcoin options open interest is back to the $2 billion ++ mark again this September.



https://analytics.skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-options


R


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September 20, 2020, 06:00:33 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 01:22:44 AM by fillippone
 #115

Looks like we have a massive bitcoin options (10,000 BTC) will expire at the end of the month. Most of them on September 25. So it will be interesting as what it can bring to the ecosystem, specially in the 25th.



Bitcoin options open interest is back to the $2 billion ++ mark again this September.



https://analytics.skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-options


I would like to keep this thread on topic, discussing futures only.
You are more than welcome to discuss option subjects in the options thread.
Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!


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September 29, 2020, 01:40:24 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), duesoldi (1)
 #116

Time to analyse a mechanism used typically by Bitcoin Futures: the funding mechanism. The idea of this post came to me reading a post from Joe, an infamous whale in the bitcoin market:

Quote
The easiest arb play the last few days: sell 1 BTCUSD perp on FTX/Deribit/Kraken/Binance, buy 1 BTCUSDt perp on Bitfinex, pocket .05-.06% in funding every 8 hours. With yields like this, who the hell needs DeFi?

Why aren't more people doing this, I wonder?

https://twitter.com/J0E007/status/1288567031399428097?s=20

This definitely caught my attention, as I wanted to explain futures funding in detail in my thread, but I hadn't done so far.
I am trying to explain in this post what is future funding, and what is the arbitrage Joe is referring to.


I am going to describe funding mechanism using the exchange examples. There is a very little variation from the various exchanges. I will quote the relevant part, with minimal edit from me, as those explications can be found almost with the same wording on every exchange providing perpetual futures. So I don't wan to to be accused of plagiarism for something that is already been cloned over and over the internet.



A perpetual future is a type of Futures Contract that doesn’t have an expiration date or settlement. These are quite uncommon in traditional markets, and, as long as I know, are used only in bitcoin trading. A Perpetual Contract is similar to a traditional futures contract in terms of trading, yet as it will not expire so that you can hold a position for as long as you wish. Given the fact it cannot hold close to the underlying price with the classical “no arbitrage-condition on expiry dates”, Perpetual Contracts track the underlying Index Price via the funding system.

Quote
Funding is the periodic interest payments between traders which aim to keep the Last Traded Price as close to the Index Price as possible. If the rate is positive, then Longs will pay and Shorts will receive the rate, and in the opposite way if the rate is negative. On many exchange funding occurs multiple times a day, the most common case is thrice a day, every 8 hours. At these times the exchange regulates the funding between every open contract at those times.

Please note that this is a transaction directly between the two sides on the open interest, there is no commission from the exchange, as the ultimate reason for this is to avoid the opening of arbitrage windows between the perpetual futures and the underlying index. If a trader closes his position before the snapshot no payment is expected against the exchange.

In the following example, I will try to explain the calculation of the funding. The computation is really similar for many of the exchanges, bar some negligible details.

What is Funding?
Quote
The Funding Rate is comprised of two main parts: the Interest Rate and the Premium/Discount. This rate aims to keep the Last Traded Price of the Perpetual Contract in line with the underlying market price of Bitcoin.
This way, the contract mimics the margin trade market, as buyers and sellers exchange interest payments periodically.

Every Perpetual Contract consists of Base currency (BTC) and Quote currency (USD).

The Interest Rate is calculated as:
Code:
Interest Rate (I) = (Interest Quote Index - Interest Base Index) / Funding Interval
where
Code:
Interest Base Index = The Interest Rate for borrowing the Base currency;
Interest Quote Index = The Interest Rate for borrowing the Quote currency;
Funding Interval = 3 (Funding occurs every 8 hours).

Perpetual Contract may trade on the exchange at a significant premium or discount to the Mark Price. In both cases, a Premium Index will be used to raise or lower the next Funding Rate to levels consistent with where the contract is trading.
Each contract’s Premium Index is calculated as following:
Code:
Premium Index (P) = (Max (0, Impact Bid Price - Mark Price) - Max (0, Mark Price - Impact Ask Price)) / Index Price + Fair Basis used in Mark Price

where

Code:
Impact Bid Price = The average fill price to execute the Impact Margin Notional on the Bid side
Impact Ask Price = The average fill price to execute the Impact Margin Notional on the Ask side

Funding Basis = Funding Rate * (Time Until Funding / Funding Interval)
Fair Price    = Index Price * (1 + Funding Basis)

Impact price, bid or offer is the average price at which a certain amount of BTC can be executed. This is done to take into account the depth of the market, rather than the nominal bid-offer price, that can be irrelevant in thin markets. Usually, for the perpetual futures, the impact price is calculated on a size of 10 BTC.

Fair basis is instead used to "drag" the future price toward the Fair price at around the timing of Funding Timestamp. Funding Basis is computed every Minute.

Quote
The funding you pay or receive is calculated as below:
Code:
Funding = Position Value * Funding Rate
When the Funding Rate is positive, longs pay shorts, the opposite when the rate is negative where the shorts pay the longs.

Bear in mind that Position Value is not impacted by the future leverage. For example, if you hold 10 BTCUSD contracts with 100x leverage funding is charged/received on the notional value of those contracts (10 BTC) , and is not computed on how much margin you have assigned to the position (that is determined computing the total exposure of 10000.

Funding Rate Calculations
Quote

The Funding Rate is composed of two parts: the Interest Rate and the Premium/Discount.
The Funding Rate aims to keep the traded price of your Perpetual Contract in line with the underlying reference price. Therefore, the contract mimics how margin-trading markets work, as the longs and shorts of the contract exchange interest payments periodically.

Interest Rate

Every perpetual future contract consists of two parts: a Base currency and a Quote currency. If we analyse the BTCUSD Perpetual Contract, the Base currency is Bitcoin, while the Quote currency is USD. The Interest Rate is a function of interest rates between the two currencies.
Code:
Interest Rate (I) = (Interest Quote Index - Interest Base Index) / Funding Interval
where
Code:
Interest Base Index = The Interest Rate for borrowing the Base currency
Interest Quote Index = The Interest Rate for borrowing the Quote currency
Funding Interval = 24/8 = 3 (The funding occurs every 8 hours over a 24 hours cycle)

Premium / Discount Component
The perpetual contract is a totally separated market from the underlying. Also, as it never expires, there is no arbitrage condition pulling the price to the underlying market. To avoid the dislocation of the future, something that could hinder his effectiveness as an hedging and speculative tool, a mechanism is put in effect to induce market participants to rationally adjust the price toward the expected value: this mechanism is the funding system.

Quote
If the perpetual future trades at a Mark Price that is away from the Index Price, the price of the underlying, a Premium Index will be used to raise or lower the next Funding Rate to levels consistent with which the contract is being traded.
Premium Index (P) = (Max(0, Impact Bid Price - Mark Price) - Max(0, Mark Price - Impact Ask Price)) / Spot Price + Fair Basis used in Mark Price
Please check Fair Price Marking for more information on the Impact Bid Price and the Impact Ask Price.
 
FAIR PRICE MARKING
 
Final Funding Rate Calculation
The exchange calculates the Premium Index (P) and Interest Rate (I) every minute and then performs an 8-hour Time-Weighted-Average-Price (TWAP) over the series of minute rates.
The funding rate is calculated with the 8-Hour Interest Rate Component and the 8-Hour Premium / Discount Component. A +/- 0.05% dampener is added.
Code:
Funding Rate (F) = Premium Index (P) + clamp(Interest Rate (I) - Premium Index (P), 0.05%, -0.05%)

The 'clamp' function limits a value between an upper and lower bound, where the preferred value is the first parameter, the upper bound is the second parameter, and the lower bound is the third parameter. In other words, the function 'clamp' selects the middle value among the three. Therefore, if (I - P) is within +/- 0.05%, then we take (I - P) and F = P + (I - P). This means the Funding Rate is equal to the Interest Rate.
This calculated Funding Rate is then applied to the BTC Position Value of each trader to determine the Funding Amount to be paid or received at the Funding Timestamp.
Funding Rate Caps
The exchanges usually set maximum levels, caps, on the Funding Rate to ensure that the maximum leverage can still be used.
Usually there are two separate caps levels:
The absolute Funding Rate is capped at 75% of the Initial Margin - Maintenance Margin. If the Initial Margin is 1% and the Maintenance Margin is 0.5%, then the maximum Funding Rate will be 75% * (1% - 0.5%) = 0.375%.
The Funding Rate shall not be changed by more than 75% of the Maintenance Margin between Funding intervals.

Funding Fees
The exchanges don’t charge any fees on funding. The funding is exchanged directly between the long and short position holders. This gives the maximum liquidity to the funding system, avoiding arbitrage possibility and ensuring the most accurate pricing of the future itself, which is ultimately in exchange interest.


To help you familiarise with all the above computation I readied up a



Back to Joe's tweet.

I don't know it it looks so great after all.

According do his calculations, with a 10 BTC position spreading FTX vs Bitfinex (20 BT locked) you could potentially yield a little bit less than 0.015 BTC per day.
In my humble opinion he misread a rate and my computation lead me to an even lower outcome of 0.004 BTC per day when computing the correct rates.






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October 02, 2020, 03:52:30 PM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 01:18:38 AM by fillippone
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #117

Big news in the future market:

Quote
CFTC Charges BitMEX Owners with Illegally Operating a Cryptocurrency Derivatives Trading Platform and Anti-Money Laundering Violation


Source: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8270-20

Basically, one of the top guys at BitMex, namely the CTO, got arrested.
Apparently their funds were holded on a 3 of 4 multisig address containing 193,000 BTC.
For sure the CTO was one of the 4 signer of those addresses.


Quote
Bitmex has ~$2b worth of Bitcoin in their vaults (around 193k BTC) Flushed face



https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1311706827982360576?s=20


Futures Markets were quick to react on the news, and traders literally scrambled to colse their positions on Bitmex: open interest dropped more than 14,000 BTC in a few hours, and slowly continuing to decline to a total of 34,000 BTC widthawn so far, according to Coindesk





The reaction was particularly heavy on futures positions. Traders were quick to close their positions on BitMex fearing to have their funds locked on the exchange. This thing is really scary for a future traders willing to do an "arbitrage" activity between exchanges, where the speed of transfer of funds between exchanges is vital.

Trying to calm the markets they started manually processing the withdraw requests ahead of time. This was crucial in restoring, as it were possible, a little bit of faith in the exchange.

The situation is well wrapped up by this piece by BTC Times
BitMEX Owners Charged With Illegally Operating a Crypto Derivatives Trading Platform

What it interest me the most is the reaction on the futures market:

1. Bid/Offer Spread:

The following is the daily average Bid/offer Spread for 10 Millions on Bitmex



As you can see no major reaction from the cristi, spreads remained tight, a little bit of widening due to diminished liquidity, but nothing extraordinary. This is a very positive sign, after all.

ùThe following is another representation of the above. You can only barely notice something happened on Oct 1st:




2. Basis Spread vs. Future.
Of course basis collapsed, nobody wanted to hold bitcoin on the long end on Bitmex, this raised the cost of carry, thus reducing the basis.



This is a very exchange-specific fact, as we see the basis didn't change on Binance, or any other exchange

3. Funding

As there was a rush to close the futures, to withdraw liquidity, there was a slight imbalance also in positions, this reflected in a few blips in the funding (from positive, to negative, then positive again, then more negative)



But as traders were draining liquidity from both sides of the trade overall, funding was little affected.



Conclusion: Bitmex had a severe hit in reputation, which is an utterly important factor considering an exchange.
From a technical point of view, markets have been smoothly functioning throughout the event, the exchange was even ready to amend their strict procedures (manual signing of transfer) in order to reassure the market participants about their solvency. This is equally important.

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JayJuanGee
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October 02, 2020, 04:13:04 PM
Merited by fillippone (2)
 #118

Basically, the top guys at BitMex got arrested.

This is not an accurate statement, fillippone.

One of the top 4 guys was arrested and three others were charged. 

"Arrested" would more accurately describe some how being physically restrained (even if later released) - and physical restraint only happened to one of them so far, as far as any of us knows as I type this post.  Unless you have news that is not otherwise currently known by yours truly?

1) Self-Custody is a right.  There is no such thing as "non-custodial" or "un-hosted."  2) ESG, KYC & AML are attack-vectors on Bitcoin to be avoided or minimized.  3) How much alt (shit)coin diversification is necessary? if you are into Bitcoin, then 0%......if you cannot control your gambling, then perhaps limit your alt(shit)coin exposure to less than 10% of your bitcoin size...Put BTC here: bc1q49wt0ddnj07wzzp6z7affw9ven7fztyhevqu9k
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October 02, 2020, 04:17:36 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #119

Basically, the top guys at BitMex got arrested.

This is not an accurate statement, fillippone.

One of the top 4 guys was arrested and three others were charged. 

"Arrested" would more accurately describe some how being physically restrained (even if later released) - and physical restraint only happened to one of them so far, as far as any of us knows as I type this post.  Unless you have news that is not otherwise currently known by yours truly?
You are absolutely correct.
 I changed the wording a couple of times and "one of the" got stuck in the keyboard in the final edit, changing the meaning of the sentence.
Thanks for pointing out. I also edited to make it more clear why everyone panicked for this.

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October 13, 2020, 09:21:14 AM
Last edit: May 16, 2023, 01:16:26 AM by fillippone
 #120

Time to celebrate at CME.
They sent out some interesting graphs to their newsletter readers, celebrating the success of their products:




Quote
Bitcoin futures (BTC) open interest (OI) averaged a record of over 10.5K contracts per day in Q3, up 32% compared with Q2 and up 127% vs. Q3 2019. Institutional flow also saw notable growth, with 692 new accounts added, and the number of large open interest holders (LOIH) averaged 79 in Q3, up 64% compared to Q3 2019.

Q3 Bitcoin futures highlights*
  • Average daily volume (ADV) reached 8,960 contracts (44,800 equivalent bitcoin or ~$490M notional value).
  • Record OI of 15,406 contracts (77,030 equivalent bitcoin) on August 17.
  • 40%+ of BTC volume was traded outside the US, with ~15% coming from APAC and ~25% from EMEA.
  • 5,600+ unique, active accounts have traded since launch.






Slightly off topic here, but also Options saw an solid growth in Q3, after being launched in Q12020:




Of course, those numbers must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Zooming out to the industry, we see CME is certainly picking up, but is still lagging massively behind other exchanges:



Of course we are comparing apple with pears here, as there is a massive distinction from "fully compliant" exchanges, and the "rogue exchanges" in less legally demanding jurisdictions.
As we have seen anyway, regulators are becoming tougher on less regulated exchanges, so I guess players who are more compliant with current financial regulations have a massive upside potential, to gather institutional money.




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