50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over?

[bittenbob]

I just saw that our manipulator is back buying 50k coins at $2.30 a piece of MtGox. Does this mean we have seen the last of this bear market? I think he figures he manipulated the market as low as it will go in one day. Quite the profits for him. Based on what I see over the last month we could see a rally to $3.50 in the next couple of days.

Whats everyone elses thoughts on this?

[Dan The Man]

I doubt we'll see 3.5 in the next couple of days. People remember what happened yesterday still. It will take a while to forget.

[Cluster2k]

Yes, we are saved.  Good times are here again.  That $2.30 'wall' can't just disappear with one mouse click.

[bittenbob]

I am only suggesting that because if you look at the big sell off last month there was a big rally for the next 5 days afterwards up to $3.60. If you want to talk memories we could talk June although I feel the prices are much more sustainable now. Clearly this speculator believes we have hit the bottom of the market in the short term and believes it will go up from here. Should be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of days.

[bittenbob]

Yes, we are saved.  Good times are here again.  That $2.30 'wall' can't just disappear with one mouse click.

Yes it can but 50k is a lot of coins and I believe the same number they were playing with earlier. My gut feeling is they think they have the market bottomed out. Interesting to note there are a few more buys around 2.35 too. Like I said in my last post should be interesting to watch the market for the next few days.

[Dan The Man]

I am only suggesting that because if you look at the big sell off last month there was a big rally for the next 5 days afterwards up to $3.60. If you want to talk memories we could talk June although I feel the prices are much more sustainable now. Clearly this speculator believes we have hit the bottom of the market in the short term and believes it will go up from here. Should be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of days.

The rebound last month was not that fast. It was more like 5 days from the first crash before things started heading back, and much longer before they hit that peak.

[bittenbob]

I am only suggesting that because if you look at the big sell off last month there was a big rally for the next 5 days afterwards up to $3.60. If you want to talk memories we could talk June although I feel the prices are much more sustainable now. Clearly this speculator believes we have hit the bottom of the market in the short term and believes it will go up from here. Should be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of days.

The rebound last month was not that fast. It was more like 5 days from the first crash before things started heading back, and much longer before they hit that peak.

True I guess I was looking at the 24th but after the crash aon the 17th in 5 days it was back up around 3.50. For all I know it might be the same speculator or some sort of a BTC hedge fund. Good eye though.

[bittenbob]

Wow, now back up to 2.45 in steps from the big 2.30 bidwall. Theoretically this could be the manipulator hedging his bets from his profits from the dive yesterday (still today here). Pretty good profit but it would be funny if they ended up losing money because of the price of bitcoins rising.

[notme]

Wow, now back up to 2.45 in steps from the big 2.30 bidwall. Theoretically this could be the manipulator hedging his bets from his profits from the dive yesterday (still today here). Pretty good profit but it would be funny if they ended up losing money because of the price of bitcoins rising.

More bitcoins were moved in the two hours of uptrend after the big sell than during the sell.  You can't assume the sell wasn't a buyer's way of doubling down for a nice low price.

[bittenbob]

I see now that they split the bidwall up but it is higher than 2.35 at the lowest. We are up to 2.488 now. I dont think they are trying to double down in coins but maintain coin volume and purely for profit taking. Whatever amount they buy at x price is the sell price-x times 50k in profit. Not bad for a days manipulating.

[BTCurious]

lol gone

[Cluster2k]

$2.20.  The walls are there to play mind games with traders and to fool bots.  They mean nothing and are only there to look pretty.

[proudhon]

Seriously, you guys haven't figure it out yet?  The bet this guy is making is that the impressive amounts of cash he puts up will induce confidence in people such that they place bids ahead of his large bids.  He then drops his bids and sells into the bids that built up ahead of his.  Rinse, repeat.  He's cashing out, not getting in.

[bittenbob]

lol gone

Funny how you saw this before I could and I reloaded twice. Are you the manipulator?

[tvbcof]

Stand aside sprouts...the big kids are playing.

[phorensic]

Just made 10% off that last "crash" to $2.20    I really like this "manipulator" guy.

[bittenbob]

Just made 10% off that last "crash" to $2.20    I really like this "manipulator" guy.

I have 0 invested but when I go to sell the coins I made mining it would be nice if they were worth something lol. Still lets see what happens over the next few days. Quite frankly Im surprised MtGox hasnt suspended this account for causing so much volatility but i guess they dont care since they get a cut off every transaction anyways.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Just made 10% off that last "crash" to $2.20    I really like this "manipulator" guy.

He is making this easy, isn't he?

[Revalin]

aaaaand... it's gone.

To the OP:  Sure, a single person propping up the price means the end of the bear market...  Until that person decides they're done.  Then the market goes back to being a market.  The only way it lasts is if he convinces enough people that the bad times are over.

IMO he'll have to spend a lot more to overcome the overall downtrend which is, again IMO, due to bearish fundamentals.

[Cluster2k]

Seriously, you guys haven't figure it out yet?  The bet this guy is making is that the impressive amounts of cash he puts up will induce confidence in people such that they place bids ahead of his large bids.  He then drops his bids and sells into the bids that built up ahead of his.  Rinse, repeat.  He's cashing out, not getting in.

It really is quite simple to execute and beautiful to watch when it happens.  Those bitcoin traders who wised up to this behaviour months ago are riding the waves, others are getting crushed by them time and time again.  It's a true libertarian market, without rules and regulations, laws and other things that get in the way.

[phorensic]

Just made 10% off that last "crash" to $2.20    I really like this "manipulator" guy.

He is making this easy, isn't he?

Absolutely!  Volatility like this makes it really easy to make 5-10% profit trades.  I have guessed right on the peak and the valley 4 times in a row during this action!

[phorensic]

Those bitcoin traders who wised up to this behaviour months ago are riding the waves, others are getting crushed by them time and time again.

You nailed it dude.  I learned how to trade the BTC market months ago.  This is just more of the same, but more fun because 50k BTC is being thrown around like mad.  I couldn't trade stocks like this (practice virtual account) but the Forex market is *very* similar to the BTC [forex essentially] market so I opened up a practice Forex account with one of the larger MM's, used my BTC trading skills, and pulled away with almost 100% profitable trades.

[Cluster2k]

New 'wall' at $2.20!  We're saved!      

[bittenbob]

I see they are back with 60k at 2.20. I wonder how long before they pull out this time if the trend continues?

Edit

Correction I see 50k

[StewartJ]

Just made 10% off that last "crash" to $2.20    I really like this "manipulator" guy.

He is making this easy, isn't he?

Absolutely!  Volatility like this makes it really easy to make 5-10% profit trades.  I have guessed right on the peak and the valley 4 times in a row during this action!

Hey Phorensic, you rock. I am trying to figure this out too, see if a modest but almost sure 5% return can be gotten.

Are you doing well on Forex?

SJ

[StewartJ]

Those bitcoin traders who wised up to this behaviour months ago are riding the waves, others are getting crushed by them time and time again.

You nailed it dude.  I learned how to trade the BTC market months ago.  This is just more of the same, but more fun because 50k BTC is being thrown around like mad.  I couldn't trade stocks like this (practice virtual account) but the Forex market is *very* similar to the BTC [forex essentially] market so I opened up a practice Forex account with one of the larger MM's, used my BTC trading skills, and pulled away with almost 100% profitable trades.

So your practice forex account is not real money? Can you explain what you mean by "larger MMs" ?

 I would like to open a Forex account too !

SJ

[Cluster2k]

So, what do we reckon about the fake $2.20 support and the rising price this time?  Another pump 'n dump cycle coming in the next couple of hours?  The market may be wisening up to this (finally) as there's only $1200 or so required to go from $2.30 to the $2.20 'wall'.

[proudhon]

So, what do we reckon about the fake $2.20 support and the rising price this time?  Another pump 'n dump cycle coming in the next couple of hours?  The market may be wisening up to this (finally) as there's only $1200 or so required to go from $2.30 to the $2.20 'wall'.

There'll probably be another build up period with volume piling up a little bit ahead of the bid wall pushing the price as high as 2.5, maybe even a little more.  Then the big wall(s) will come down, this guy'll sell into the fresh bids, there'll be another flurry of panic selling and we'll setup for it to happen again at a lower price.  My guess is this will keep happening until whoever this is has rid himself of bitcoins in exchange for money he can actually use for something.

[bittenbob]

So, what do we reckon about the fake $2.20 support and the rising price this time?  Another pump 'n dump cycle coming in the next couple of hours?  The market may be wisening up to this (finally) as there's only $1200 or so required to go from $2.30 to the $2.20 'wall'.

There'll probably be another build up period with volume piling up a little bit ahead of the bid wall pushing the price as high as 2.5, maybe even a little more.  Then the big wall(s) will come down, this guy'll sell into the fresh bids, there'll be another flurry of panic selling and we'll setup for it to happen again at a lower price.  My guess is this will keep happening until whoever this is has rid himself of bitcoins in exchange for money he can actually use for something.

Unfortunately this type of behavior is what makes it unattractive for vendors to accept BTC for purchases. Such volatility means they will not be able to accept BTC for purchases without say a 20% surcharge in order to hedge their bets against losses. You cannot pay your rent or taxes with Bitcoins. At least not anywhere I know. I bet this speculator is on this board and is one of the people trying to drive the price down to $1.50 or lower. Still based on previous data we could see a genuine increase back above $3 in the next couple of days.

[phorensic]

Those bitcoin traders who wised up to this behaviour months ago are riding the waves, others are getting crushed by them time and time again.

You nailed it dude.  I learned how to trade the BTC market months ago.  This is just more of the same, but more fun because 50k BTC is being thrown around like mad.  I couldn't trade stocks like this (practice virtual account) but the Forex market is *very* similar to the BTC [forex essentially] market so I opened up a practice Forex account with one of the larger MM's, used my BTC trading skills, and pulled away with almost 100% profitable trades.

So your practice forex account is not real money? Can you explain what you mean by "larger MMs" ?

 I would like to open a Forex account too !

SJ

MM = Market Maker.  One of the two types of brokers on forex.  I played around on http://fxtrade.oanda.com/ and had a lot of fun, really like that platform.  I highly recommend you read *everything* here http://www.babypips.com/school/ before messing with forex, especially if you want to throw real money into it.  Use the practice account for months before you lose real money, lol.  I still don't have the capital or guts to open up a real account.  I only trade with real money on BTC because all my coins are mined, my cards are paid off, and I get "free" electricity, so I have no risk.

[StewartJ]

MM = Market Maker.  One of the two types of brokers on forex.  I played around on http://fxtrade.oanda.com/ and had a lot of fun, really like that platform.  I highly recommend you read *everything* here http://www.babypips.com/school/ before messing with forex, especially if you want to throw real money into it.  Use the practice account for months before you lose real money, lol.  I still don't have the capital or guts to open up a real account.  I only trade with real money on BTC because all my coins are mined, my cards are paid off, and I get "free" electricity, so I have no risk.

Thanks, I will take a look at Forex, I have been meaning to look into for playing the market with currency and gold/silver.

So you are a btc miner, sounds like you have an edge and are doing well for yourself. Congrats,

SJ

[Cluster2k]

So, what do we reckon about the fake $2.20 support and the rising price this time?  Another pump 'n dump cycle coming in the next couple of hours?  The market may be wisening up to this (finally) as there's only $1200 or so required to go from $2.30 to the $2.20 'wall'.

There'll probably be another build up period with volume piling up a little bit ahead of the bid wall pushing the price as high as 2.5, maybe even a little more.  Then the big wall(s) will come down, this guy'll sell into the fresh bids, there'll be another flurry of panic selling and we'll setup for it to happen again at a lower price.  My guess is this will keep happening until whoever this is has rid himself of bitcoins in exchange for money he can actually use for something.

Unfortunately this type of behavior is what makes it unattractive for vendors to accept BTC for purchases. Such volatility means they will not be able to accept BTC for purchases without say a 20% surcharge in order to hedge their bets against losses. You cannot pay your rent or taxes with Bitcoins. At least not anywhere I know. I bet this speculator is on this board and is one of the people trying to drive the price down to $1.50 or lower. Still based on previous data we could see a genuine increase back above $3 in the next couple of days.

Very true.  No sane merchant would ever trade in a commodity/currency that can change several percent in value within the space of a minute.  All the arguments for using BTC fly out the window when the merchant needs to put a hefty margin on their sales to compensate compared to using traditional currencies.

I also agree that the chief person responsible for today's mischief is almost certainly reading these posts.  They're putting on a good show and making MtGox Live interesting to watch, but pumping and dumping the market too often can kill the golden goose.

[Technomage]

Very true.  No sane merchant would ever trade in a commodity/currency that can change several percent in value within the space of a minute.  All the arguments for using BTC fly out the window when the merchant needs to put a hefty margin on their sales to compensate compared to using traditional currencies.

I find it surprising that a long time poster can say something like this. It's entirely possible to accept Bitcoins for payment with ZERO currency risk. Either by using a payment system such as bitpay and in that case the merchant doesn't even have to know what Bitcoin is. The other option is to set up a do-it-yourself system but this requires knowledge of Bitcoin and IT.

I don't expect this from clueless posters such as proudhon but come on...

[Cluster2k]

Very true.  No sane merchant would ever trade in a commodity/currency that can change several percent in value within the space of a minute.  All the arguments for using BTC fly out the window when the merchant needs to put a hefty margin on their sales to compensate compared to using traditional currencies.

I find it surprising that a long time poster can say something like this. It's entirely possible to accept Bitcoins for payment with ZERO currency risk. Either by using a payment system such as bitpay and in that case the merchant doesn't even have to know what Bitcoin is. The other option is to set up a do-it-yourself system but this requires knowledge of Bitcoin and IT.

I don't expect this from clueless posters such as proudhon but come on...

It's been said before but... if you're going to get rid of your BTC as soon as you receive them (to not carry currency value risk), then why deal in BTC at all?  BTC payment services and BTC<->USD transfers aren't free.  The merchant is creating another layer of paper work for themselves.  The only advantage is no charge backs, but as a customer I want to be able to charge back a dodgy business.

[Revalin]

then why deal in BTC at all?

Cheaper than PayPal or credit cards (even with trading fees)
Much cheaper than other irrevocable payments (wire transfers)
Easier for international buyers
Works for things that PayPal doesn't allow like virtual goods, porn, or Wikileaks
Privacy / anonymity
Microtransactions

I'd love to use it for a value store as well, but that will wait.

[mjcmurfy]

as a customer I want to be able to charge back a dodgy business.

As a customer, why would you take risks on dodgy businesses in the first place?

You should trust those who you intend to transact with, if not - then find a trustworthy alternative. If you decide on a whim to take the risk anyway, why should I have to pay for your mistake when you get suckered out of your money?

By having to pay I am referring to the fact that I am forced to also concede to chargebacks as a business, or as a consumer am required to pay higher prices to cover the CC fees passed on to me by businesses to pay for the cost of the chargeback process.

Do your own due diligence. Expecting others to do it for you is naive.
When you throw caution to the wind, you cannot also expect to have a safety net if things don't go your way.

It's completely childish.
"MOMMY!!! The dodgy man lied to me. He told me these beans were magic!!! WAAAA"

[nmat]

Cheaper than PayPal or credit cards (even with trading fees)
Much cheaper than other irrevocable payments (wire transfers)
Easier for international buyers
Works for things that PayPal doesn't allow like virtual goods, porn, or Wikileaks
Privacy / anonymity
Microtransactions

I'd love to use it for a value store as well, but that will wait.

Just to add that some people might prefer to pay with bitcoins than with paypal. If it is a simple system to setup with small fees and brings additional customers, then why not?

Ideally, people should be able to hold on to bitcoins without losing lots of money, but we are not there yet.

[Technomage]

Ideally, people should be able to hold on to bitcoins without losing lots of money, but we are not there yet.

True, but unless Bitcoin completely dies, it'll get there eventually. The economic model of Bitcoin ensures this.

[BadBear]

as a customer I want to be able to charge back a dodgy business.

As a customer, why would you take risks on dodgy businesses in the first place?

You should trust those who you intend to transact with, if not - then find a trustworthy alternative. If you decide on a whim to take the risk anyway, why should I have to pay for your mistake when you get suckered out of your money?

By having to pay I am referring to the fact that I am forced to also concede to chargebacks as a business, or as a consumer am required to pay higher prices to cover the CC fees passed on to me by businesses to pay for the cost of the chargeback process.

Do your own due diligence. Expecting others to do it for you is naive.
When you throw caution to the wind, you cannot also expect to have a safety net if things don't go your way.

It's completely childish.
"MOMMY!!! The dodgy man lied to me. He told me these beans were magic!!! WAAAA"

Ah, the old "Its YOUR fault for getting scammed, suck it up!"

[mjcmurfy]

Ah, the old "Its YOUR fault for getting scammed, suck it up!"

I suppose you could reduce it to that statement, albeit rather simplistically. Do you have a point?

Reasons for being scammed:
1) Falling for a confidence trick
2) Trying to get a too-good-to-be-true deal
3) Trying to turn a fast buck
4) Stupidity
5) All of the above

I have never in my life been scammed because I am cautious about who I give my money to, I know that if a deal sounds too good to be true it probably is, I make sensible investments and I have informed myself quite well thanks to a good education.

I feel bad for honest people who get scammed, but if people have a permanent false sense of security, then where is the incentive to be prudent with your money? If we keep giving people who get scammed their money back, they will never learn and the scam artists run riot. It's a tough but necessary lesson in economics.

I don't want to be footing the bill for the mistakes of others when I have gone to great lengths to ensure that I don't make those mistakes myself.

If they want a safety net, maybe all the idiots in the world can come together and create themselves some sort of 'idiot insurance'. I don't want any part of it though. If they want protection then they will have to pay the cost of their own stupidity themselves.

[BadBear]

No point really, I just dislike seeing blanket statements calling people stupid and idiots for being the victim of a crime, but some people are just like that I suppose. 

[DeathAndTaxes]

Unfortunately this type of behavior is what makes it unattractive for vendors to accept BTC for purchases. Such volatility means they will not be able to accept BTC for purchases without say a 20% surcharge in order to hedge their bets against losses. You cannot pay your rent or taxes with Bitcoins. At least not anywhere I know. I bet this speculator is on this board and is one of the people trying to drive the price down to $1.50 or lower. Still based on previous data we could see a genuine increase back above $3 in the next couple of days.

Sadly this is correct.  The price of BTC is irrelevant for a merchant the volatility is what matters.  Small amounts of volatility can be easily hedged giving a merchant stable pricing power.  The 20%+ moves in span of seconds kills the utility of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange.  Hopefully increased volume will eventually dampen these moves. 

The one small bright spot is that the value "only" moves 30% which is interesting given the massive volume.  We had larger volume and a smaller drop than prior single day crashes.  I can only hope this trend continues because the current volatility makes BTC little more than a plaything for speculators.

[gewure]

Just made 10% off that last "crash" to $2.20    I really like this "manipulator" guy.

I have 0 invested but when I go to sell the coins I made mining it would be nice if they were worth something lol. Still lets see what happens over the next few days. Quite frankly Im surprised MtGox hasnt suspended this account for causing so much volatility but i guess they dont care since they get a cut off every transaction anyways.

if you want to hedge your mined coins, then why not short them on bitcoinica?!

go there, put like.. 100BTC on it, sell 200, w8 untill next chrash, liquidate -> profit from the cheaper coins you pay back to bitcoinica.

that speculation just made me 275%. if i was a miner, i would hedge my mined bitcoins against worth-loosing with a short position, OR at least don't sell any of them until prices are up again, probably happening after the ~1$  low within the next 2-3 months.

greets

[mjcmurfy]

No point really, I just dislike seeing blanket statements calling people stupid and idiots for being the victim of a crime, but some people are just like that I suppose.  

I don't like it when innocent people are the victim of a crime either, but it doesn't turn me into a blithering, weepy mess. Just because you seem so willing to give your money away to those who do not think twice about sending their credit card details to a Nigeran Prince in exchange for $1 million, does not give you the moral high ground.

The chargeback process can be easily abused and is wide open to serious fraud itself, which gives scammers an even greater ability to defraud honest businesses out of money. And there is very little they can do about it, while stupid people can always be educated.

A fool and his money are easily parted. We should be trying to educate people to help them understand the best ways to keep their money safe and avoid scams in the first place, not give them the freedom to spend it as stupidly as possible and actively disincentivize financial prudence, while the rest of us are forced to foot the bill.

Crime can (and should) be dealt with by the legal system... not the financial system.

[bittenbob]

No point really, I just dislike seeing blanket statements calling people stupid and idiots for being the victim of a crime, but some people are just like that I suppose. 

Nobody likes it when innocent people are the victim of a crime either, but it doesn't turn me into a blithering, weepy mess. Just because you seem so willing to give your money away to those who do not think twice about sending their credit card details to a Nigeran Prince in exchange for $1 million, does not give you the moral high ground.

A fool and his money is easily parted - we should be trying to help people understand the best ways to keep their money safe, not give them the freedom to spend it as stupidly as possible while the rest of us are forced to foot the bill.

Crime can (and should) be dealt with by the legal system... not the financial system.

The mainstream financial system is a crime purported on the bottom 99%. Fiat currency is hidden slavery and we should all be up in arms about it but it seems only a few are willing to protest. I agree though that crime should be dealt with by the legal system but I don't know if the police would even bother filling out a report for stolen bitcoins. From my experience cops only go after violent crimes and it seems the financial crimes by and large go unpunished. Its too much work for the police despite their excessively high salaries. Maybe we need a seperate police force just to deal with financial crimes?

[Edward50]

Looks like the manipulator is not able to push the price higher, his current position is getting chewed on right now. I do not know how long he will hold his bidwall there.

[Dan The Man]

The point of the bidwall is the opposite of what you think it is. It is not to hold the price up, it is to trigger panic sells. Notice that last night there was a single sell of something like 10000 BTC between 2.45 and 2.2. Let's say the average price was 2.3. Now the same seller is propping up 2.2. Any buys at 2.2 are profit for them because they just sold at 2.3. But even better, when things look ripe, they can drop the wall, and maybe kick start things with a little sell of 500 or so coins. Let the price plummit and then buy their same 10000 BTC back on the cheap as everyone panics.

[bittenbob]

The point of the bidwall is the opposite of what you think it is. It is not to hold the price up, it is to trigger panic sells. Notice that last night there was a single sell of something like 10000 BTC between 2.45 and 2.2. Let's say the average price was 2.3. Now the same seller is propping up 2.2. Any buys at 2.2 are profit for them because they just sold at 2.3. But even better, when things look ripe, they can drop the wall, and maybe kick start things with a little sell of 500 or so coins. Let the price plummit and then buy their same 10000 BTC back on the cheap as everyone panics.

This is what I have been saying. This person/group is getting a lot more coins by causing these swift drops, selling at the higher prices and buying at the low. Either that or they are manipulating the market to get some money out while maintaining their coin levels. I do not think this is someone cashing out but rather skimming off the top.

[tvbcof]

No point really, I just dislike seeing blanket statements calling people stupid and idiots for being the victim of a crime, but some people are just like that I suppose. 

While it is not right to say someone is an idiot for being the victim of a crime, it is, unfortunately, more often the case than not that they were a victim because they are an idiot.  Or more charitably, made some mistakes which in hindsight (and foresight to some) were fairly obviously mistakes.

[S3052]

The point of the bidwall is the opposite of what you think it is. It is not to hold the price up, it is to trigger panic sells. Notice that last night there was a single sell of something like 10000 BTC between 2.45 and 2.2. Let's say the average price was 2.3. Now the same seller is propping up 2.2. Any buys at 2.2 are profit for them because they just sold at 2.3. But even better, when things look ripe, they can drop the wall, and maybe kick start things with a little sell of 500 or so coins. Let the price plummit and then buy their same 10000 BTC back on the cheap as everyone panics.

This is what I have been saying. This person/group is getting a lot more coins by causing these swift drops, selling at the higher prices and buying at the low. Either that or they are manipulating the market to get some money out while maintaining their coin levels. I do not think this is someone cashing out but rather skimming off the top.

I agree with you. this person probably is a very experienced trader with one of the highest capitalization in the bitcoin exchanges, and he uses this to his advantage.
It would take a few additional highly capitalized traders / investors to show him that the game is over.
But it does not seem like a lot of new traders / investors are getting into bitcoins...

[mmortal03]

At least the price is still above the October 19th low.

[proudhon]

[Jonathan Ryan Owens]

+1

Thank you for the laugh, sir.

[ElectricMucus]

roflmao

[mjcmurfy]

That was the best laugh I have had in a while. Thank you proudhon!

[bitcoinBull]

The point of the bidwall is the opposite of what you think it is. It is not to hold the price up, it is to trigger panic sells. Notice that last night there was a single sell of something like 10000 BTC between 2.45 and 2.2. Let's say the average price was 2.3. Now the same seller is propping up 2.2. Any buys at 2.2 are profit for them because they just sold at 2.3. But even better, when things look ripe, they can drop the wall, and maybe kick start things with a little sell of 500 or so coins. Let the price plummit and then buy their same 10000 BTC back on the cheap as everyone panics.

This is what I have been saying. This person/group is getting a lot more coins by causing these swift drops, selling at the higher prices and buying at the low. Either that or they are manipulating the market to get some money out while maintaining their coin levels. I do not think this is someone cashing out but rather skimming off the top.

The record volume, ~375k BTC is almost double the old record (which was closer to ~200k BTC).  That seems to me to be a game-changer.  If this volume was mostly someone trading with him/herself (phantom volume of a manipulator), or otherwise normal volume of market-makers, then why was it never this high before?

If we assume that this is not normal or faux volume, then we conclude that some BTC was traded.  Someone cashed out, and someone else cashed in, and unless the price stalls here, there will be a wrong side of that trade.

Seems to me that the market is panic selling before $1.xx (near record volume the last big dip a month ago, mostly around $3 and bottoming at $2.04, and again in huge record volume mostly around $2.50 and bottoming at $2.10).


If a lot are waiting to buy in the $1's (and it seems to me that they are), who will be there panic selling in the $1's?  Early adopters and Mr. Manipulator?  hah.  The joe bitcoin who was manipulated into buying at $2.28 by a bid wall at $2.20?  Is he gonna panic sell at $1.50?

I call bottom.  (could be wrong - $1.5 btc for xmas?)

[bitcoinBull]

Seriously, you guys haven't figure it out yet?  The bet this guy is making is that the impressive amounts of cash he puts up will induce confidence in people such that they place bids ahead of his large bids.  He then drops his bids and sells into the bids that built up ahead of his.  Rinse, repeat.  He's cashing out, not getting in.

I don't buy this.  $100k bluff bids would be a risky way of 'cashing out'.  Dude is buying bitcoin.

[Crypt_Current]

The record volume, ~375k BTC is almost double the old record (which was closer to ~200k BTC).  That seems to me to be a game-changer.  If this volume was mostly someone trading with him/herself (phantom volume of a manipulator), or otherwise normal volume of market-makers, then why was it never this high before?

Answer:  Increase in usage of a certain service.

[mjcmurfy]

Seriously, you guys haven't figure it out yet?  The bet this guy is making is that the impressive amounts of cash he puts up will induce confidence in people such that they place bids ahead of his large bids.  He then drops his bids and sells into the bids that built up ahead of his.  Rinse, repeat.  He's cashing out, not getting in.

I don't buy this.  $100k bluff bids would be a risky way of 'cashing out'.  Dude is buying bitcoin.

You do realize that this is exactly what you are supposed to think? Don't fall for it.

[Etlase2]

You do realize that this is exactly what you are supposed to think? Don't fall for it.

Put panic into the eyes of the sheep with a mild 25-50k sell off, drop the value 20-30%, buy 25-50k coins back around $1 less, profit 30-40k USD, maintain BTC balance, rinse, repeat.

By continuing to support bitcoin, you are continuing to allow this to happen. So many people are capable of doing what was done today. Stop supporting bitcoin. If the volume of real money entering this system increases and the price rises, it is just another fantastic opportunity to be an early adopter and take that money from you. Too few people are capable of always controlling so much of the supply. It is a farce.

[mjcmurfy]

Put panic into the eyes of the sheep with a mild 25-50k sell off, drop the value 20-30%, buy 25-50k coins back around $1 less, profit 30-40k USD, maintain BTC balance, rinse, repeat.

Yeah, but there is not enough panic yet. That wall is simply there to fuck with us. It is supporting the price until enough bids have been placed, after which it will be abruptly pulled and further panic will ensue. I might be wrong, but I don't think any manipulator worth his salt would actually give his hand away by leaving that wall there for so long. Call me crazy.

[Etlase2]

Yeah, but there is not enough panic yet. That wall is simply there to fuck with us. It is supporting the price until enough bids have been placed, after which it will be abruptly pulled and further panic will ensue. I might be wrong, but I don't think any manipulator worth his salt would actually give his hand away by leaving that wall there for so long. Call me crazy.

He also put up a $250k ask for all of a few seconds. Is there any explanation for that? Was he bragging?
You would think he would spread out the wall a bit to make it not so obvious. But perhaps he just wants to see how stupid people are.

[bitcoinBull]

The record volume, ~375k BTC is almost double the old record (which was closer to ~200k BTC).  That seems to me to be a game-changer.  If this volume was mostly someone trading with him/herself (phantom volume of a manipulator), or otherwise normal volume of market-makers, then why was it never this high before?

Answer:  Increase in usage of a certain service.

Bitcoinica didn't just open yesterday.  Yesterday's volume was a major outlier, which can't be hand-waved away.

Yeah, but there is not enough panic yet. That wall is simply there to fuck with us. It is supporting the price until enough bids have been placed, after which it will be abruptly pulled and further panic will ensue. I might be wrong, but I don't think any manipulator worth his salt would actually give his hand away by leaving that wall there for so long. Call me crazy.

He also put up a $250k ask for all of a few seconds. Is there any explanation for that? Was he bragging?
You would think he would spread out the wall a bit to make it not so obvious. But perhaps he just wants to see how stupid people are.

Volume of almost twice the previous record qualifies as "enough panic", IMO.  Or, he's gonna drop the wall and everyone will panic sell at $1.xx?  That does sound crazy.  How many people would still be holding, with a stop-loss below $2, especially given yesterday's record sell-off?  Not many, I wouldn't think. 


The simpler explanation is that there's a big buyer who bought a bunch of bitcoin, and who is ready to buy at least 50k more.  He's broadcasting a direct signal to the market.  Whoever was selling either ran out of BTC, or got the message.


Market, meet bottom.  (unless it isn't.  i suppose it could be a ploy to mindfuck and manipulate the market sheeple into buying now and panic selling later at $1.xx, if they're dumb enough).

[evoorhees]

Meanwhile, some of us don't get distracted by the spectacle of days, weeks, or month-long moves.

[Etlase2]

The delusion around here is astounding.

[proudhon]

Weeeeeeee!  My condolences to everyone who bought in the past few hours.  New lows are on the horizon.

[Cluster2k]

Weeeeeeee!  My condolences to everyone who bought in the past few hours.  New lows are on the horizon.

We're back in the cycle.  Didn't get as high as I thought (closer to $3), but the game is on again.  'Wall' at $2.30 disappears, reappears at $2.00 and the market is sold off.  Rinse, repeat.

[tvbcof]

Weeeeeeee!  My condolences to everyone who bought in the past few hours.  New lows are on the horizon.

Interesting.  Looks like a nice little rope-a-dope move on the part of 'the manipulator'.  He seems to have sucked a pretty good chunk of coin out of the weak hands.

[proudhon]

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours.  It was painfully obvious what was going on.  I'm beyond baffled.

[Cluster2k]

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours.  It was painfully obvious what was going on.  I'm beyond baffled.

Catch the trading wave and ride it in.  Market is rising again.  The trend is your friend, and so is the manipulator.

[bittenbob]

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours.  It was painfully obvious what was going on.  I'm beyond baffled.

I certainly didn't buy any but perhaps he has taken down his bidwall to get some rest again. This is what seemed to happen the other day. Give it 6 hours and there will be another 50k coin bidwall. I noticed just before he got rid of it it was about 58k coins instead of 50k and it still hasnt dropped down near as much as the other day. He is trying to trigger a panic sell by some holders and they dont seem to be falling for it as much this time. 50k demand removed from the exchange is bound to drop prices a bit. I am still optimistic we will see the price climb above $3.50 in the next couple of days to a week.

[Dan The Man]

how about next couple of minutes?

edit: sorry, I thought you said 2.5

[proudhon]

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours.  It was painfully obvious what was going on.  I'm beyond baffled.

I certainly didn't buy any but perhaps he has taken down his bidwall to get some rest again. This is what seemed to happen the other day. Give it 6 hours and there will be another 50k coin bidwall. I noticed just before he got rid of it it was about 58k coins instead of 50k and it still hasnt dropped down near as much as the other day. He is trying to trigger a panic sell by some holders and they dont seem to be falling for it as much this time. 50k demand removed from the exchange is bound to drop prices a bit. I am still optimistic we will see the price climb above $3.50 in the next couple of days to a week.

Why?  Why will that much money go into bitcoins?  There is absolutely no reason for that much money to suddenly jump in.

[Dan The Man]

Take a look at the history, the money is already there, not for 3.5, but for 2.9 at least. It's just waiting on the sidelines for a good time to jump back in after the first crash a few days ago.

[bittenbob]

There is a lot of movement going on right now so there is a lot of money changing hands. Look at the volume for today already. Maybe our manipulator has even taken down his bidwall to stealth buy a bunch of coins at the dropped price. $0.15 drop for the wall going down and the volume being traded is not that bad at all.

[proudhon]

There is a lot of movement going on right now so there is a lot of money changing hands. Look at the volume for today already. Maybe our manipulator has even taken down his bidwall to stealth buy a bunch of coins at the dropped price. $0.15 drop for the wall going down and the volume being traded is not that bad at all.

Or...he's the one who sold.  What appears to be going on is he puts up a ton of money, let's bids accumulate ahead of his giant bid (because people feel more confident when there appears to be a lot of support behind them), and then sells down into what accumulates.

[bittenbob]

There is a lot of movement going on right now so there is a lot of money changing hands. Look at the volume for today already. Maybe our manipulator has even taken down his bidwall to stealth buy a bunch of coins at the dropped price. $0.15 drop for the wall going down and the volume being traded is not that bad at all.

Or...he's the one who sold.  What appears to be going on is he puts up a ton of money, let's bids accumulate ahead of his giant bid (because people feel more confident when there appears to be a lot of support behind them), and then sells down into what accumulates.

Not the first time that theory has been mentioned in this thread. I think this person is having too much fun manipulating the market to simply get out of it. My guess is a stock trader who can't legally do this in the real world or someone who has been watching too many 80's stock market movies. It is entirely possible bitcoin crashes down to zero but I do not see that happening. There is some stability point that will eventually reached and my guess is we are somewhere aroudn this area. Even just buying and selling a few thousand coins on these waves could make someone a lot of money.

As I said I think they are having too much fun to simply be cashing out. Of course the issue frequency won't drop until 2013 but once that does happen the price will increase significantly again. Wait to see another big bidwall within 6 hours, probably at 60k coins with all the extra cash he has earned from making people panic. The last time the wall disappeared was about this time of day as well.

[Revalin]

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours.  It was painfully obvious what was going on.  I'm beyond baffled.

We still have a whole lot of True Believers who aren't sure when the bad times are over and they really don't want to miss their opportunity to get in on the Biggest Thing Ever.  They'd be long now if they hadn't already lost 80% and just couldn't afford to lose any more while this thing was going down, but Despair will be over SOON!  I mean, it's been bottomed for weeks, right?  So one of these waves is going to launch it!  And they're not going to be left out.

At least that's how it goes in the stock market.  And Vegas.

[tvbcof]

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours.  It was painfully obvious what was going on.  I'm beyond baffled.

We still have a whole lot of True Believers who aren't sure when the bad times are over and they really don't want to miss their opportunity to get in on the Biggest Thing Ever.  They'd be long now if they hadn't already lost 80% and just couldn't afford to lose any more while this thing was going down, but Despair will be over SOON!  I mean, it's been bottomed for weeks, right?  So one of these waves is going to launch it!  And they're not going to be left out.

At least that's how it goes in the stock market.  And Vegas.

I would welcome one more opportunity to double-down if we are lucky enough to get deeply into the $1.xx's.

FWIW, I've never spent more than about 30 minutes in a Casino in Nevada, though I was passing through Reno and payed for my hotel and dinner with a 50 cent bet in a slot machine earlier this year.  Gambling has never really been something that excites or interests me...until Bitcoin came along I suppose one could argue.  And I've never trusted the SEC enough to play in the stock market.

[old_engineer]

I mean, seriously, what were people doing buying all those coins in the past few hours.  It was painfully obvious what was going on.  I'm beyond baffled.

Some of it is purchased to be resold for arbitrage with other exchange(s).  I've done that before, and it's one reason why the price _always_ creeps back up in the minutes after a big sell-off. 

[Revalin]

I would welcome one more opportunity to double-down if we are lucky enough to get deeply into the $1.xx's

If you're speculating on long term success, buy and hold.  I wish Bitcoin wasn't a speculative asset, but it is what it is, so I'm not going to rag on you for that.

Market makers and arbitrageurs can milk the volatility wherever it goes, and they're a positive influence on the whole.

I'm just mocking the ones who're capitulating all the way down and panic-buying at every twitch back up.  They don't know what their strategy is and acting on emotion.  They're textbook speculative noobs, making things suck for both themselves and the rest of us.

[bitcoinBull]

Well, I spoke too soon.  The consensus was right, the $2.20 wall for 50k was removed, panic selling ensued down to $1.9999.

It does appear to be a very aggressive type of market maker.

There's now bids for 100k over $2.  In my favor, the fact that $2 held has some starting to accept the possibility of a bottom.

[bittenbob]

Well, I spoke too soon.  The consensus was right, the $2.20 wall for 50k was removed, panic selling ensued down to $1.9999.

It does appear to be a very aggressive type of market maker.

There's now bids for 100k over $2.  In my favor, the fact that $2 held has some starting to accept the possibility of a bottom.

After the first drop below $2 briefly to 1.94998 or whatever it was there was some invisible reistance at $2 by the looks of it. I would say this was due to people being leveraged at bitcoinica but I do have to wondering if $2 is the real bottom here. There were some heavy sells into $2 but it just would not cross that mark despite there being no visible bidwalls there. This type of behaviour is what makes me think this is the real bottom too.

[S3052]

This is quite possible, and if so, then there is a huge short squeeze possible as cypherdoc has mentioned in a  separate thread.

[P4man]

Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

[zhoutong]

Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition. Prices are determined by demand and supply, not the fundamentals. The fundamentals may influence the demand and supply. The extent of the influence is determined by the utility.

Bitcoin's fundamental has never changed - the easiest, fastest and cheapest way to send money internationally without being tracked or taxed. Bitcoin is not a stock that pays unknown amount of dividends or a fiat currency that pays unknown amount of interest.

Without looking at the price history, we all have absolutely no idea about the exchange rate of EUR/USD, for example. The exchange rate is determined by multiple unknown factors, such as imports, exports, economic growth, interest rates, etc.

Anything unknown is worth speculating.

[wareen]

Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

To deny that any information about the future price can be extracted from the price history is just as hilarious.
It's not that _all_ people and bots currently trading with BTC suddenly switch to a totally different and unrelated set of models.

It's a bit like with the weather: if you spend great effort and carefully study the history of various parameters, you can slowly build models that can give you a pretty good idea of what the weather will look like in the near future. Of course, there are times when your predictions are wrong, but you can do a lot better than just rolling dices.

[P4man]

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition.

Wrong. Stocks are shares in a company, and any company has fundamentals rooted in a real economy. Same goes for a currency, there are HUGE economies behind it.  The fundamentals of bitcoin as a currency currently represent perhaps $0.01 per BTC. All the rest is speculation and speculating on future speculation. Trying to predict short term increase or decrease in that is about as sensible as trying to predict cat /dev/rnd.

Anything unknown is worth speculating.

Sure, go ahead and speculate on a roulette table if thats what you feel. The outcome is also unknown. Just dont kid yourself that previous "patterns" or results tell you anything about the next game.

[P4man]

but you can do a lot better than just rolling dices.

Yeah, you can play roulette on color and triple your stake each time you lose. Big chance of small profits, small chance of losing every last chip. That you can change, what you cant change is the overall odds.

[ElectricMucus]

This is quite possible, and if so, then there is a huge short squeeze possible as cypherdoc has mentioned in a  separate thread.

By rate the sell wall has been growing since the rise I'd doubt that is what is happening.

Anyway I'd expect my target limit order to be filled soon.

[slush]

The fundamentals of bitcoin as a currency currently represent perhaps $0.01 per BTC.

Well, it's *yours* personal interpretation of fundamentals. Mine is different. And that's creating the price. Market is just trying to find equilibrium of all people's mind.

[mjcmurfy]

By rate the sell wall has been growing since the rise I'd doubt that is what is happening.

Anyway I'd expect my target limit order to be filled soon.

I tend to agree with you. The ask walls are starting to build even faster now. And the bidwalls are slowly sinking.
I think we might be in for a massive downward movement very shortly.

[zhoutong]

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition.

Wrong. Stocks are shares in a company, and any company has fundamentals rooted in a real economy.

So what's the "fundamental value" of IBM's share?

Is it $0.01, $1, $100 or more?

It's a part of a company, yes, but it represents a completely unknown amount of cash flow. All the financial reports we see are history, and we all are predicting the future.

Same thing goes for Bitcoin. No company, currency or whatever will guarantee the value of something. We guarantee each other's value using our own judgement. Only an idiot will sell Bitcoin at "fundamental value" when someone offers $2.4 per coin.

[zhoutong]

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition.

Wrong. Stocks are shares in a company, and any company has fundamentals rooted in a real economy.

So what's the "fundamental value" of IBM's share?

Is it $0.01, $1, $100 or more?

It's a part of a company, yes, but it represents a completely unknown amount of cash flow. All the financial reports we see are history, and we all are predicting the future.

Same thing goes for Bitcoin. No company, currency or whatever will guarantee the value of something. We guarantee each other's value using our own judgement. Only an idiot will sell Bitcoin at "fundamental value" when someone offers $2.4 per coin.

The new stock being offered on GLBSE "TyGrrTech" has its value in its physical assets. At least for the IPO. We will always buy stock back at 90% of the value of the hardware in terms of US dollars. No matter what happens to the bitcoin price.

Then there's a price of the hardware measured in US Dollar. It's the same as the price of a Bitcoin measured in US Dollar. The price of the physical assets now doesn't guarantee future value either.

What I mean is, we can forget about the "fundamental value" when we trade something, Bitcoin doesn't have a fixed minimum price. Whether the price we see now comes from speculation, bubbles, or commerce, it doesn't matter. As long as we have market liquidity, we can use, save and transfer the coins.

[P4man]

So what's the "fundamental value" of IBM's share?

If nothing else, its assets and dividend forecasts. On top of that of course there is speculation based on how IBM will evolve in the future, due to its products, roadmaps, managment team, competition, the markets it operates in etc, there are lots of things you could look at to make educated guesses. What makes little to no sense is to only look at the past 6 or 12 month of its stock valuation to "predict" IBMs future.

It's a part of a company, yes, but it represents a completely unknown amount of cash flow. All the financial reports we see are history, and we all are predicting the future.

Same thing goes for Bitcoin.

No, not at all. IBM is not going be to worth $5 next year, nor $500. If something extreme and unforeseen happens it might double or cut in half, but bitcoin could easily be worth $0.1 or $100 next year. Sure you can make educated guesses and speculate on that,  and bet money on bitcoin becoming more widespread, adopted by major internet shops, or outlawed or hacked or whatever changes in its fundamentals. I have no problems with that. If more people become optmistic about its long term forecasts, price will go up, and vice versa. BTC price dropping to $1 next month or rising to $10 changes nothing in that respect.

So all this guessing whether it will be $2.0 of $3.0 next week or next month, by looking at the previous months is simply laughable. As long as nothing fundamentally changes for bitcoin, things like its legal status or acceptance by the public, the only thing driving the price up and down by potentially factor of 100x or more is speculators speculating what other speculators will speculate. Thats what you most here are trying to "predict" by looking at past charts.

Its really like showing you a chart of a random stock chart of the last 2 years, without telling you what company it is,  and letting you predict how it will evolve.

Good luck with that.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I agree with much of what you're saying but this:

Its really like showing you a chart of a random stock chart of the last 2 years, without telling you what company it is,  and letting you predict how it will evolve.

Good luck with that.

You know the technologies offered by BitCoin. You would at least have to know what this unknown company has offer for this to be a legitimate comparison. Using historical data, you can better speculate on what other speculators speculate! Still, nothing prepares you for the freight train sell-offs that occur at seemingly random times.

[P4man]

You know the technologies offered by BitCoin. You would at least have to know what this unknown company has offer for this to be a legitimate comparison.

Thats the point. Bitcoin fundamentals are largely unchanged from a year ago. All thats influenced the price is speculation, and until something fundamentally changes, all that will change its price significantly is speculation. Thats the only thing a chart shows you. Its as useful as a guide for the future as an unlabeled chart of some random company (admittedly, also with largely unchanged fundamentals).

[S3052]

You know the technologies offered by BitCoin. You would at least have to know what this unknown company has offer for this to be a legitimate comparison.

Thats the point. Bitcoin fundamentals are largely unchanged from a year ago. All thats influenced the price is speculation, and until something fundamentally changes, all that will change its price significantly is speculation. Thats the only thing a charts shows you. Its as useful as a guide as an unlabeled chart of some random company (admittedly, also with largely unchanged fundamentals).

Bitcoin technical analysis based on the bitcoin charts has proved to be extremeley successful to predict future prices moves. Believe it or not.

[P4man]

Bitcoin technical analysis based on the bitcoin charts has proved to be extremeley successful to predict future prices moves. Believe it or not.

Oh I believe. In self fulfilling prophecies; you only have to convince enough speculators and your prediction will automatically become truth, no matter what you predict.  Except those times you get it wrong.  Thats the playing on color and tripling: big chance of small gains. Small chance of getting it very wrong and suffering catastrophic losses. Overall its a zero sum game and your odds are the same as everyone else's. Believe it or not.

[smoothie]

Have we seen one of these recently?

50k BTC bid wall?

[TERA]

Have we seen one of these recently?

50k BTC bid wall?

I haven't seen anything over 3K anywhere since july 2013. the good old days.

[derpinheimer]

Have we seen one of these recently?

50k BTC bid wall?

Last time we saw that was at $70, after the drop to $50.. and a dip in to the 60s.

[seleme]

Have we seen one of these recently?

50k BTC bid wall?

Last time we saw that was at $70, after the drop to $50.. and a dip in to the 60s.

it was 15k wall.

[doo]

Nice wall, but will it stay?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Nice wall, but will it stay?

doo(d), look at the date of the OP

[N12]

Have we seen one of these recently?

50k BTC bid wall?

I haven't seen anything over 3K anywhere since july 2013. the good old days.

Good old days of 5th Oct., 2014, when we had 30k BTC in Bitstamp asks @300 devoured!

[fonzie]

Good ol days when we had that 10k wall @3200CNY on Huobi! I hope they come back  !