50K bidwall at 2.30 - Crash over?

[Revalin]

I would welcome one more opportunity to double-down if we are lucky enough to get deeply into the $1.xx's

If you're speculating on long term success, buy and hold.  I wish Bitcoin wasn't a speculative asset, but it is what it is, so I'm not going to rag on you for that.

Market makers and arbitrageurs can milk the volatility wherever it goes, and they're a positive influence on the whole.

I'm just mocking the ones who're capitulating all the way down and panic-buying at every twitch back up.  They don't know what their strategy is and acting on emotion.  They're textbook speculative noobs, making things suck for both themselves and the rest of us.

[bitcoinBull]

Well, I spoke too soon.  The consensus was right, the $2.20 wall for 50k was removed, panic selling ensued down to $1.9999.

It does appear to be a very aggressive type of market maker.

There's now bids for 100k over $2.  In my favor, the fact that $2 held has some starting to accept the possibility of a bottom.

[bittenbob]

Well, I spoke too soon.  The consensus was right, the $2.20 wall for 50k was removed, panic selling ensued down to $1.9999.

It does appear to be a very aggressive type of market maker.

There's now bids for 100k over $2.  In my favor, the fact that $2 held has some starting to accept the possibility of a bottom.

After the first drop below $2 briefly to 1.94998 or whatever it was there was some invisible reistance at $2 by the looks of it. I would say this was due to people being leveraged at bitcoinica but I do have to wondering if $2 is the real bottom here. There were some heavy sells into $2 but it just would not cross that mark despite there being no visible bidwalls there. This type of behaviour is what makes me think this is the real bottom too.

[S3052]

This is quite possible, and if so, then there is a huge short squeeze possible as cypherdoc has mentioned in a  separate thread.

[P4man]

Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

[zhoutong]

Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition. Prices are determined by demand and supply, not the fundamentals. The fundamentals may influence the demand and supply. The extent of the influence is determined by the utility.

Bitcoin's fundamental has never changed - the easiest, fastest and cheapest way to send money internationally without being tracked or taxed. Bitcoin is not a stock that pays unknown amount of dividends or a fiat currency that pays unknown amount of interest.

Without looking at the price history, we all have absolutely no idea about the exchange rate of EUR/USD, for example. The exchange rate is determined by multiple unknown factors, such as imports, exports, economic growth, interest rates, etc.

Anything unknown is worth speculating.

[wareen]

Its hilarious to see you all try to predict the future based on btc exchange rate history while that history was 99.9% about trying to predict the future. Maybe one day you will figure out it cant be predicted as long as there are no fundamentals. You're just rolling the dice.

To deny that any information about the future price can be extracted from the price history is just as hilarious.
It's not that _all_ people and bots currently trading with BTC suddenly switch to a totally different and unrelated set of models.

It's a bit like with the weather: if you spend great effort and carefully study the history of various parameters, you can slowly build models that can give you a pretty good idea of what the weather will look like in the near future. Of course, there are times when your predictions are wrong, but you can do a lot better than just rolling dices.

[P4man]

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition.

Wrong. Stocks are shares in a company, and any company has fundamentals rooted in a real economy. Same goes for a currency, there are HUGE economies behind it.  The fundamentals of bitcoin as a currency currently represent perhaps $0.01 per BTC. All the rest is speculation and speculating on future speculation. Trying to predict short term increase or decrease in that is about as sensible as trying to predict cat /dev/rnd.

Anything unknown is worth speculating.

Sure, go ahead and speculate on a roulette table if thats what you feel. The outcome is also unknown. Just dont kid yourself that previous "patterns" or results tell you anything about the next game.

[P4man]

but you can do a lot better than just rolling dices.

Yeah, you can play roulette on color and triple your stake each time you lose. Big chance of small profits, small chance of losing every last chip. That you can change, what you cant change is the overall odds.

[ElectricMucus]

This is quite possible, and if so, then there is a huge short squeeze possible as cypherdoc has mentioned in a  separate thread.

By rate the sell wall has been growing since the rise I'd doubt that is what is happening.

Anyway I'd expect my target limit order to be filled soon.

[slush]

The fundamentals of bitcoin as a currency currently represent perhaps $0.01 per BTC.

Well, it's *yours* personal interpretation of fundamentals. Mine is different. And that's creating the price. Market is just trying to find equilibrium of all people's mind.

[mjcmurfy]

By rate the sell wall has been growing since the rise I'd doubt that is what is happening.

Anyway I'd expect my target limit order to be filled soon.

I tend to agree with you. The ask walls are starting to build even faster now. And the bidwalls are slowly sinking.
I think we might be in for a massive downward movement very shortly.

[zhoutong]

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition.

Wrong. Stocks are shares in a company, and any company has fundamentals rooted in a real economy.

So what's the "fundamental value" of IBM's share?

Is it $0.01, $1, $100 or more?

It's a part of a company, yes, but it represents a completely unknown amount of cash flow. All the financial reports we see are history, and we all are predicting the future.

Same thing goes for Bitcoin. No company, currency or whatever will guarantee the value of something. We guarantee each other's value using our own judgement. Only an idiot will sell Bitcoin at "fundamental value" when someone offers $2.4 per coin.

[zhoutong]

Any currency, stock or commodity has no fundamentals by this definition.

Wrong. Stocks are shares in a company, and any company has fundamentals rooted in a real economy.

So what's the "fundamental value" of IBM's share?

Is it $0.01, $1, $100 or more?

It's a part of a company, yes, but it represents a completely unknown amount of cash flow. All the financial reports we see are history, and we all are predicting the future.

Same thing goes for Bitcoin. No company, currency or whatever will guarantee the value of something. We guarantee each other's value using our own judgement. Only an idiot will sell Bitcoin at "fundamental value" when someone offers $2.4 per coin.

The new stock being offered on GLBSE "TyGrrTech" has its value in its physical assets. At least for the IPO. We will always buy stock back at 90% of the value of the hardware in terms of US dollars. No matter what happens to the bitcoin price.

Then there's a price of the hardware measured in US Dollar. It's the same as the price of a Bitcoin measured in US Dollar. The price of the physical assets now doesn't guarantee future value either.

What I mean is, we can forget about the "fundamental value" when we trade something, Bitcoin doesn't have a fixed minimum price. Whether the price we see now comes from speculation, bubbles, or commerce, it doesn't matter. As long as we have market liquidity, we can use, save and transfer the coins.

[P4man]

So what's the "fundamental value" of IBM's share?

If nothing else, its assets and dividend forecasts. On top of that of course there is speculation based on how IBM will evolve in the future, due to its products, roadmaps, managment team, competition, the markets it operates in etc, there are lots of things you could look at to make educated guesses. What makes little to no sense is to only look at the past 6 or 12 month of its stock valuation to "predict" IBMs future.

It's a part of a company, yes, but it represents a completely unknown amount of cash flow. All the financial reports we see are history, and we all are predicting the future.

Same thing goes for Bitcoin.

No, not at all. IBM is not going be to worth $5 next year, nor $500. If something extreme and unforeseen happens it might double or cut in half, but bitcoin could easily be worth $0.1 or $100 next year. Sure you can make educated guesses and speculate on that,  and bet money on bitcoin becoming more widespread, adopted by major internet shops, or outlawed or hacked or whatever changes in its fundamentals. I have no problems with that. If more people become optmistic about its long term forecasts, price will go up, and vice versa. BTC price dropping to $1 next month or rising to $10 changes nothing in that respect.

So all this guessing whether it will be $2.0 of $3.0 next week or next month, by looking at the previous months is simply laughable. As long as nothing fundamentally changes for bitcoin, things like its legal status or acceptance by the public, the only thing driving the price up and down by potentially factor of 100x or more is speculators speculating what other speculators will speculate. Thats what you most here are trying to "predict" by looking at past charts.

Its really like showing you a chart of a random stock chart of the last 2 years, without telling you what company it is,  and letting you predict how it will evolve.

Good luck with that.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I agree with much of what you're saying but this:

Its really like showing you a chart of a random stock chart of the last 2 years, without telling you what company it is,  and letting you predict how it will evolve.

Good luck with that.

You know the technologies offered by BitCoin. You would at least have to know what this unknown company has offer for this to be a legitimate comparison. Using historical data, you can better speculate on what other speculators speculate! Still, nothing prepares you for the freight train sell-offs that occur at seemingly random times.

[P4man]

You know the technologies offered by BitCoin. You would at least have to know what this unknown company has offer for this to be a legitimate comparison.

Thats the point. Bitcoin fundamentals are largely unchanged from a year ago. All thats influenced the price is speculation, and until something fundamentally changes, all that will change its price significantly is speculation. Thats the only thing a chart shows you. Its as useful as a guide for the future as an unlabeled chart of some random company (admittedly, also with largely unchanged fundamentals).

[S3052]

You know the technologies offered by BitCoin. You would at least have to know what this unknown company has offer for this to be a legitimate comparison.

Thats the point. Bitcoin fundamentals are largely unchanged from a year ago. All thats influenced the price is speculation, and until something fundamentally changes, all that will change its price significantly is speculation. Thats the only thing a charts shows you. Its as useful as a guide as an unlabeled chart of some random company (admittedly, also with largely unchanged fundamentals).

Bitcoin technical analysis based on the bitcoin charts has proved to be extremeley successful to predict future prices moves. Believe it or not.

[P4man]

Bitcoin technical analysis based on the bitcoin charts has proved to be extremeley successful to predict future prices moves. Believe it or not.

Oh I believe. In self fulfilling prophecies; you only have to convince enough speculators and your prediction will automatically become truth, no matter what you predict.  Except those times you get it wrong.  Thats the playing on color and tripling: big chance of small gains. Small chance of getting it very wrong and suffering catastrophic losses. Overall its a zero sum game and your odds are the same as everyone else's. Believe it or not.

[smoothie]

Have we seen one of these recently?

50k BTC bid wall?