Monthly updates and thoughts about the market

[El duderino_]

The third quarter of 2019 has been completed. Prior to this quarter, we saw one of the strongest quarters in price increase in Bitcoin's history. Somehow it is therefore not illogical that we have seen a correction during the past quarter. If we look at the price evolution of the last three months, we see that the price has made a sideways movement, indicating an equilibrium between buyers and sellers in the market.
However, the price has seen a double-digit decline in the last week of September. There is a 40% difference between the peak at the end of June and the current daily price. This is significant but it is important that we look at everything in perspective.
Bitcoin is still the best performing asset in the world in 2019 with a return of + 100%.
We have also seen in the previous cycles that corrections between 30-40% in the upward spiral are not exceptional.


This can be explained by the fact that investors with an investment horizon want to realise their profits in the short term. This puts a negative pressure on the price since the supply exceeds demand in the short term.

We want to emphasise once again that our vision is based on the long term. As HODLers, we want to avoid missing out on the ultimate appreciation in price by briefly reducing our exposure to the market.

We are always on our guard should there be any signs that we are entering a new bear market, but we do not want to make any emotional or impulsive decisions. A well-known saying from stock market legend Warren Buffett is appropriate here: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
We see the fall in prices in the past quarter as an opportunity for many to increase their exposure to the market.

In terms of macroeconomic developments, we see that we are on the verge of global recession. We end up in a recession when economic growth is negative for 2 months in a row.
It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin will react as a non-correlated asset in this new economic environment.
Bitcoin originated in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008. We have since seen that central banks around the world have increased their balance sheets by printing money and accumulating debts.
This means that all assets that are weighed against the currency of a country such as real estate, shares and also Bitcoin have increased enormously in value. A so-called asset inflation.

We see that the reaction to a possible recession makes the central banks go back to this phenomenon of printing money and accumulating debts. As this is not yet known, it is waiting to see how more risky investments such as Bitcoin will perform.

However, the expectation remains that we will reach a new high point in the course of 2020, or before??

[1715396906]

1715396906

[buwaytress]

I'd have to look back a lot of posts, even though I probably said it several times, to find the time I said that 2020 would only be the EARLIEST we would see the next significant and sustainable bull run -- and I thought this definitely as soon as ATH arrived... and even long before the 2018 low happened.

It was really just the speed and intensity of the last bull run that was the problem. The crypto winter should have been longer, harsher, and longer. This year's surprise slingshot to almost 14k probably only delayed that 2020 target, IMO.

About this global recession, I also have the same opinion: when the economy is bad, jobs are not plentiful, people are scrounging for money and food, they will NOT be investing in Bitcoin -- so I'm not convinced when they say the crashing of the traditional is the bull run of Bitcoin. Not in terms of immediate impact anyway.

[Gozie51]

I would like to compare the third quarter of 2017 to that of this year. The 2017 year at this time, the price was on fire with high volatility and increase but at time we are seeing a gradual drop. This is an opposite.
For the last quarter of 2017, we all know high the price was steadily going up till ATH but I don't see that happening this last quarter. I would say we should expect a profitable year by 2020.

[CryptoBry]

There is no question that even with the ongoing dip (which I am hoping will not lead us to the $6K level), Bitcoin remains to be a great performer if we have to compare it to gold, stocks, forex or commodities. Traders and fund managers are all aware of the great potential of Bitcoin as an asset to produce the profits they are looking for and that is why many of them are also into Bitcoin aside from the traditional assets exposure they are managing. I am sure that a critical number of people are just waiting on the sideline always looking for signs for the rock bottom of this pullback so they can be back on the game again. The Bitcoin community has been hoping for the bull run but I agree that it may not be happening this year and that 2020 as the year of the halving is the right time for the bears to finally be kicked out and for the bulls to take the center stage...or so we hope. In the next two months of 2019, it is possible that Bitcoin can be back at the $9K level and be moving sideways dominantly.

[Pab]

Good post.I see high possibility for bull run before 2020 even.Maybe Bitcoin will establish new ATH but price can be close to.In a case of recession everything depends on tariffs talks.All poor last economic data are caused by tariffs war.But there is something more then only tariffs war.We had 50bln repo done not so far ago.Repo purpose was to add lost liquidity to US banks.Similar was 2007.I see something gonna happen with that financial system at beginning of 2020 and in that case i very optimistic for both Bitcoin and Gold.I think both assets will have very strong bull run

[El duderino_]

Good post.I see high possibility for bull run before 2020 even.

Yeah I think many will closely look to BTC in 2020... I do think many are to scared of buying while they should, as its a game changer in the world money wise as it just has the best upward potential where we can dream of.... Meh, many will regret they didn't bought sooner as when they buy.

[JayJuanGee]

I would like to compare the third quarter of 2017 to that of this year. The 2017 year at this time, the price was on fire with high volatility and increase but at time we are seeing a gradual drop. This is an opposite.
For the last quarter of 2017, we all know high the price was steadily going up till ATH but I don't see that happening this last quarter. I would say we should expect a profitable year by 2020.

That seems to be because your comparison point should be early 2016 and not late 2017.  It seems quite erroneous to be attempting to compare the same times of the year rather than points in the four year cycles.    In other words, late 2015 and early 2016 were getting out of the long 2014/2015 bear market, just like our April to June 3.5x outburst seemed to have been getting out of our 2018 to early 2019 bear market.

[lionheart78]

I would like to compare the third quarter of 2017 to that of this year. The 2017 year at this time, the price was on fire with high volatility and increase but at time we are seeing a gradual drop. This is an opposite.
For the last quarter of 2017, we all know high the price was steadily going up till ATH but I don't see that happening this last quarter. I would say we should expect a profitable year by 2020.

I think this year is comparable to  2015 , 2017 could be 2021, from the Bitcoin 4 year cycle view point.  We can see another ATH probably after the halving since it was the only major catalyst that we can see from here.  Government adoption may help but with that there is always a negative effect on the mindset of seasoned crypto enthusiast which almost nullify any hype it brings in the market. I believe that 2020 would be the real start of the bull market.

[El duderino_]

^
One of the only things talking against that opinion is that BTC optimal play is to do what nobody expects

But imo as well I think 2020 will be a special year for BTC

[exstasie]

We are always on our guard should there be any signs that we are entering a new bear market, but we do not want to make any emotional or impulsive decisions. A well-known saying from stock market legend Warren Buffett is appropriate here: "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

And people do seem pretty fearful after that crash. Many people around here have already proclaimed a bear market, and a strong majority of analysts (including myself) are still expecting lower prices. Knowing Bitcoin, I'm keenly aware that the market can reverse at the drop of a dime.

Some words of wisdom from an OG trader:

If you really think we go into a new bearmarket now, I can't help you.

This was the 160 - 500 style move. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Ayiranorea]

Q4 has begun and this might be the opportunity to buy bitcoin at a lower price. There is more positive hope for the year 2020, probably this time also we can expect the trend to be similar as the previous bull run. We need to be prepared to benefit at the right time. Last time when there was growth taking place, it was mentioned as bubble. Fearing this there prevailed some panic, further the growth once again got ignited in large scale as a wave. Let's hope something bigger this time.

[bassbity]

Q4 has begun and this might be the opportunity to buy bitcoin at a lower price. There is more positive hope for the year 2020, probably this time also we can expect the trend to be similar as the previous bull run. We need to be prepared to benefit at the right time. Last time when there was growth taking place, it was mentioned as bubble. Fearing this there prevailed some panic, further the growth once again got ignited in large scale as a wave. Let's hope something bigger this time.

Many say also that in 2020 bitcoin will begin to grow will it happen? let's wait i hope at the beginning of the year bitcoin has a good positive because i have been holding btc for a long time.

[aysg76]

Q4 has begun and this might be the opportunity to buy bitcoin at a lower price. There is more positive hope for the year 2020, probably this time also we can expect the trend to be similar as the previous bull run. We need to be prepared to benefit at the right time. Last time when there was growth taking place, it was mentioned as bubble. Fearing this there prevailed some panic, further the growth once again got ignited in large scale as a wave. Let's hope something bigger this time.

Many say also that in 2020 bitcoin will begin to grow will it happen? let's wait i hope at the beginning of the year bitcoin has a good positive because i have been holding btc for a long time.

Q4 had always been very crucial for the crypto market. Let's see what happens this year, whether the market is able to break the bearish trend or not or whether we would just experience a rally coming before the Q4 ends. Till then I'll be holding BTC, and let's wait for the surprises that 2020 brings along with it...

[magneto]

The third quarter of 2019 has been completed. Prior to this quarter, we saw one of the strongest quarters in price increase in Bitcoin's history. Somehow it is therefore not illogical that we have seen a correction during the past quarter. If we look at the price evolution of the last three months, we see that the price has made a sideways movement, indicating an equilibrium between buyers and sellers in the market.
However, the price has seen a double-digit decline in the last week of September. There is a 40% difference between the peak at the end of June and the current daily price. This is significant but it is important that we look at everything in perspective.
Bitcoin is still the best performing asset in the world in 2019 with a return of + 100%.
We have also seen in the previous cycles that corrections between 30-40% in the upward spiral are not exceptional.


This can be explained by the fact that investors with an investment horizon want to realise their profits in the short term. This puts a negative pressure on the price since the supply exceeds demand in the short term.

We want to emphasise once again that our vision is based on the long term. As HODLers, we want to avoid missing out on the ultimate appreciation in price by briefly reducing our exposure to the market.

Absolutely well said.

People seem to make too much out of this completely natural phenomenon. It's not just the BTC markets either, if we see significant bullish rallies within any commodities or asset market in general in a short period of time that is obviously unsustainable, it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that a correction due to profit-takers, weak hands and short term speculators trading on leverage will occur sooner or later.

The magnitude of this correction is clearly over-exaggerated. I don't think that it makes much sense at all to be speaking of this correction as some sort of fall out in the markets whatsoever. 40+% corrections are not unseen. Short term sentiment can vary extremely given the volatility of the BTC markets.

[Wexnident]

Well said. I expect the bull run to occur in mid 2020's but expect a decline in the Q4 of 2019. People are probably afraid of buying now because of the decline that just recently occured, and I read in a few posts in this community that the price could potentially drop more than it is now. Even though I expect it to drop, bitcoin is still a great coin taking into account the years past performance. Keep Holding, I'll patiently await for 2020 to come.

[beerlover]

This is more of a piece that talks about the past and Q2/Q3 of bitcoin and not the Q4 of bitcoin if you ask me.
I mean where is the predictions and what will happen during the last quarter? Do we know if there is anything major in the last quarter that will happen like for example Bakkt in Q3?

If there is none then what can we really expect bitcoin to do with no major announcements or news? Can we expect the miners to hoard their coins until halving because they know the price will go up after the difficulty skyrockets and rewards get diminished?

There are so many questions that needs to be answered about the Q4 and this topic doesn't even scratch the surface of it. I feel like we need to talk with many more in order to make a more clear decision about Q4.

[Harlot]

I don't see Bitcoin to dominate in the market when we are on a ongoing recession. Even if Bitcoin was born during the financial crisis there is no significance of it performing well right now, it didn't even go up during 2008 and it only received its first taste of price action 2 years after its creation. In a recession I don't see any market that is safe that's why the best thing to do is to pull out your capital first to any market you have and just be ready on a buying spree once the prices starts to bottom out. This is the only way I see that we will benefit from any market.

[teosanru]

In terms of macroeconomic developments, we see that we are on the verge of global recession. We end up in a recession when economic growth is negative for 2 months in a row.
It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin will react as a non-correlated asset in this new economic environment.
Bitcoin originated in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008. We have since seen that central banks around the world have increased their balance sheets by printing money and accumulating debts.

Can you please make clear what makes you say that we are on a verge of global recession. I think the macroeconomic development merely indicate a phase of the whole market economy. Until now we haven't seen any great signs of a negative economic growth. At maximum we have seen a slight drop in GDP growth rate of the US economy to around 2.1% which still is considered normal. Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/glance . Moreover if you say that experts are predicting such a thing then as far as I remember the 2008 crash no experts were able to correctly predict the crash except one or two. So generally when expert say such thing it is to create some FUD in minds of people so that they can use it for their own good.

[BitHodler]

In a recession I don't see any market that is safe that's why the best thing to do is to pull out your capital first to any market you have and just be ready on a buying spree once the prices starts to bottom out. This is the only way I see that we will benefit from any market.

I personally would put some thought into diversification of my fiat holdings. During a recession the most desirable asset is fiat---which people need to pay their bills, especially if they end up losing their job.

The most speculative assets will be sold off first, which will apply to Bitcoin just as much as it does to stocks. I'm sure that even gold will not come out well with how much speculative money floats through its derivatives market.

Fiat is what you want to have during a recession. Don't let your hate or dislike for fiat make you not hoard more of it when you see the first signs of a looming recession (signs which I believe we have seen already).

[LeGaulois]

In terms of macroeconomic developments, we see that we are on the verge of global recession. We end up in a recession when economic growth is negative for 2 months in a row.
It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin will react as a non-correlated asset in this new economic environment.
Bitcoin originated in the aftermath of the financial crisis in 2008. We have since seen that central banks around the world have increased their balance sheets by printing money and accumulating debts.

Can you please make clear what makes you say that we are on a verge of global recession. I think the macroeconomic development merely indicate a phase of the whole market economy. Until now we haven't seen any great signs of a negative economic growth. At maximum we have seen a slight drop in GDP growth rate of the US economy to around 2.1% which still is considered normal. Source: https://www.bea.gov/news/glance . Moreover if you say that experts are predicting such a thing then as far as I remember the 2008 crash no experts were able to correctly predict the crash except one or two. So generally when expert say such thing it is to create some FUD in minds of people so that they can use it for their own good.

More than one or two, the reality is they were in complete denial, "All is fine!" ... while not. since 2002 people were saying it's going to happen.
Not even need to be an economist to guest it. Who created the subprime mortgage crisis in the US? What did they learn as a lesson from the 2008 crisis, nothing at all? Banks are still as weak as ever.

If you see no sign for a negative growth maybe you can see the result.
I mean how do you explain the past months'individuals, as well as investors, central banks, and governments, are starting to turn to safe havens such as gold or the Swiss franc