What do you guys think about the death cross ?

[Twinkledoe]

The issues with these death crosses and moving averages is that they are lagging indicators. If you look at the charts for the previous crosses you would see that sometimes they work and sometimes they don't work. However if you only took an entry right when the cross took place you would have a horrible entry. Whether the death cross actually played out or not.

This is something to look at in the long term macro level but its not good to base trades off, especially if you are trying to day trade. You need to look at other fundamental factors. I think most people in crypto just look at horizontal lines and take their long term trades based off that.

Right now we are pretty much in a neutral area, if the $7700 support breaks then it could be the start of the bear market and I don't think the $6000 area will be enough support to bounce us back up. There are too many people who want to long off $6000 and most likely it won't hold.

And most of the time, those speculations remain speculations. They are not happening when the time comes. I am still very optimistic with the future of bitcoin. Why? Because more and more institutions are joining the pack, more shops are integrating crypto in their payment methods and to think that a lot of crypto exchanges are being launched. If they don't see the growth in crypto, why are they launching a business which has very tough competition in the market?

[1714662528]

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[1714662528]

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[STT]

Moving averages are an indicator and this is a bearish sign but only alongside others.  I think if we are going to be accurate it has be an accumulated view, much as I'd like to spend five minutes and come to a sound conclusion its probably going to be harder to perceive good direction then just one moment, day or even week.    
   I think the good advice I was given by a professional was the direction of the moving average is the best indicator to how much caution should be employed, when we have a falling 200 day average then it brings with it the idea we are entering a bear market.   If we see a flat line on 200 day then we have to be careful in not being too bearish or bullish as it can be a market in transition.
  So going on that rule of thumb, we are still ascending in the 200 day average and I think this pullback is too early to assume as being especially harsh or likely to increase in momentum.   We have to examine the case every day really on multiple time frames.

[figmentofmyass]

The issues with these death crosses and moving averages is that they are lagging indicators. If you look at the charts for the previous crosses you would see that sometimes they work and sometimes they don't work.

as a trend indicator, it performs decently on the daily chart. in 2014 and 2018, the initial death cross after the bubble popped confirmed long term bear markets in both cases. there have been a couple fakeouts throughout bitcoin's history though, it's true.

This is something to look at in the long term macro level but its not good to base trades off, especially if you are trying to day trade. You need to look at other fundamental factors.

agreed, you certainly can't trade off it. in fact in the short term it almost seems to act as a contrarian indicator. the april 2014 and march 2018 crosses occurred right before huge bounces.

[bgaf]

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

I remember, btc increase during the holiday season last bull, so this statement of you isn't that true at all mate, since in fact it happened already. No one knows what could be the end of it. But I'm sure if not this year, maybe the following years it will happen again.

The graph show unstable movement, and literally I cant see a good come back but fundamentals is way stronger than TA. Bitcoin halving is approaching, and 3millions btc left for us to mine. You know what happened when supply limits, the demand will increase.

[franky1]

You know what happened when supply limits, the demand will increase.

be careful with that thought process
the 18m coins in circulation(supply) is not the same as the 1.2m coins in exchange(supply)

in very value simplicity. if no more coins were mind today. exchange demand can increase 15x without even touching the full circulation supply tip

..
also the actual numbers of bitcoin is 2,100,000,000,000,000sats
btc(100m sats) is just an arbitory human eye visable depiction of the actual units available meaning
2.1quadrillion people can own 1 unit equally
21trillion people can own 100sat(1bit) equally
7billion people can own 3000bits(300,000sats) equally

most people life savings are just ~$25k(average) meaning 12sats can be $1
. but to get to my point.
devs are already trying to trick economic supply/demand by allowing 1000x more units of measure
they want to add 'millisats' into it
basically 1btc=100,000,000,000ms
by having more units of measure more people can have a 'share'/unit. or more people can accumilate more units of measure. thus cause a change to the supply/demand dynamic

so dont expect much rational/smart people to be affected by supply/demand in 120 years when fresh coins dry up. you will just see speculation/hype bubble pump the speculative spot price way above the underlying value next year for a temporary spike in a new ATH and settle down again when drama is over.
in short the halving is not in of itslf a value increase indicator but a speculative temporary drama event. which offers a small oppertunity for miners to profit and expand their farms where by the farms then sustain a higher value support wall

[Febo]

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

It depends what day averages lines are you looking at. On some In 2016 made golden cross, then death cross and then again golden cross. On some it made only golden cross.    For sure death and golden cross are good indicator what is ahead, but only by looking in past what it did before.

[exstasie]

This morning's bounce might be good news for those hoping to avoid the death cross. These are the first hourly higher highs and overbought conditions since the last push to $8,800. This could be the start of something but it's too early to say:



Bulls obviously have their work cut out for them but there's a chance this is our push to the $9,000s. This would lean towards the scenario David has charted here with the green arrows.

[Vispilio]

The "death cross" is one of the most cliche and well known chart patterns, and even if it did provide some trading advantage at some point in the past for some products,

the traditional interpretation of it would have long ago ceased to lead to any meaningful profitability because too many people are already anticipating and factoring it in their trading decisions.

Unless you have a way to react to it differently from the stampeding herds of mainstream actors, the main effect such an overused and globally known indicator can have on the markets is psychological...

[Mahanton]

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

You should at least tag up some charts so that people will able to see on what you are referring into.Death cross? This isnt applicable on bitcoin market
but somehow these sentiments can make out some emotional effects among into its traders.

Yet, we had already seen some Death cross last 2014 https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014
Then what happened? We did even reach new ATH in 2017.

[milewilda]

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

Might be a false death cross: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nbh0A1IKBdw
with these analysis we can either utilize or just ignore these technicals.

[Wexnident]

Unlike early 2018, everyone seems to be watching for this death cross and expecting the worst. Sentiment is getting miserable. Most analysts I know are very bearish with the exception of those who have been through multiple bubble cycles.

To me, this kind of sentiment is indicative of bottom. I expect another attempt down below $7,700 but my gut tells me bulls will reject it hard and that any death cross will be a false signal. That happened once before in 2015.

Either way, let's at least let the death cross occur before expecting the worst.

False signals of death cross are abound right now imo. BTC currently at 8k and constantly showing a bullish rise steadily.
And even if Death cross would occur, I doubt it could make a huge effect on the market. Besides, only those day traders would be hugely affected. I'm doubtful that long term investors would let themselves be affected by it since most of them would have depended on the horizontal line instead of the death cross since it is quite inefficiently to base off of it.

[pooya87]

Right now we are pretty much in a neutral area, if the $7700 support breaks then it could be the start of the bear market and I don't think the $6000 area will be enough support to bounce us back up.

I don't consider $7,700 a real support level. Losing it just means breaking down from a short term bear flag, which should be expected.

Structurally on the weekly chart, our current position looks a lot like the first week of December 2018. Not the bottom, but close.

yeah, it certainly looks like the $3k range. price has fallen down unexpectedly and without reason and now everyone is confused with a lot of those who sold late wishing for bigger drops so they keep seeing charts in the way the like (pointing to a bigger drop) so that they can buy.
there is a difference though. in the entire first half of month of December, we had a downtrend. but now all we had over the past 30+ days have been stability (chart looks nearly horizontal).

[NathanJB]

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

I guess it is more realistic to say that Bitcoin is hitting 1 million USD than to say that Bitcoin is going to hit 0, that death cross. It is not realistic to say that we will live to see that day when Bitcoin hits 1 million USD but it will most probably come in the next generation. That death cross is not going to happen. A lot of wealthy investors have stake in Bitcoin. They will do everything to push it up.

[Leyss]

It seems to me that bitcoin does not lend itself to any technical analysis. He has long proved that for him there are no rules and mandatory schedules. He constantly presents us with unexpected surprises that do not correspond to any technical forecasts. Even now, bitcoin is almost equally likely to start to grow well in price, or quickly fall. Justification for one and the other of its price movement can always be found. Therefore, I do not believe in any death crosses for bitcoin. At the same time, I do not think that he is able to rise to prices in excess of $ 50,000. This is all so far from the realm of fantasy.

[exstasie]

That death cross is really looming now. We've had another breakdown on the daily so that 50-MA is curving down quickly:



Fortunately I've been patient and am still waiting to buy back. I think we should see a bullish reaction off $7K or upper $6,000s. Whether we're still in a bull market or not, $9K is still on the menu in the next month or two.

[Reid]

It was the holidays of 2017 when bitcoin soared at a price no one expected.
Or let us say before the holidays.
That is when people are receiving a lot of money. It could be a possibility also that people will invest their money into something. Bitcoin is one of those choices.
For me, I would not pick saving it in the bank for the increase will be so low that you needed a lot of money for you to feel the annual interest. (I really mean a lot like millions of dollars)
So let us not lose hopes that it could happen again.

[audaciousbeing]

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

To be sincere, expecting that price would take a significant push to the positive would be expression of hope which unfortunately the market does not respond to but consistent trading by capital inflow and also the continued penetration of crypto to the entire populace because without that it will be the same thing whether the holiday is coming or the holiday is over and no matter the meetings or conference that would change that.

[TheGreatPython]

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

The price of bitcoin reaching one million dollars is not what we are speculating for now, it is what we know that will eventually be the target of bitcoin in future which could be ten years’ time or more, because for bitcoin to reach that value, all the supply of bitcoin must have been extremely limited and bitcoin becoming so scarce, but right now, our next target of  bitcoin increase is not now or in this season of Christmas that we are approaching, but it will be after the next halving of bitcoin when miners will have their reward and that is what we expect to actually shoot the value of bitcoin high.

Bitcoin not moving upward in price is not a criteria to even judge it for not performing well because there are lot of trades and withdrawal going on and as people put in money for a purpose, so as they also pull it out for purpose too, people cannot just continue to Put money without removing it which we all think will be the main factor for having an increased value.

[slaman29]

And now I see people talking about a different kind of cross. But forgive me if I misunderstood, wasn't the last few days exactly what's supposed to happen after a death cross? The reports I read said death cross signals major bottom, and then price will go up from there.

So why is everyone now talking about bearish trends again (not that I disagree).

[AliMan]

Apparently not every news that we see is good and there have been a meeting in NYC of the big investors Who are analyzing the price of Bitcoin and telling how it's looming near the death cross, if it crossed that then it will directly hit the bottom price and People will loose a lot apparently.

Let's keep it realistic , no bitcoins hitting 1 million and such , what do you guys think of the graph ? Why haven't it been moving to a favourable turn and as far as I remember the holiday season is coming so I don't think I would expect a huge price increase Soon , because we all know how holiday season affect bitcoins.

The price of bitcoin reaching one million dollars is not what we are speculating for now, it is what we know that will eventually be the target of bitcoin in future which could be ten years’ time or more, because for bitcoin to reach that value, all the supply of bitcoin must have been extremely limited and bitcoin becoming so scarce, but right now, our next target of  bitcoin increase is not now or in this season of Christmas that we are approaching, but it will be after the next halving of bitcoin when miners will have their reward and that is what we expect to actually shoot the value of bitcoin high.

Bitcoin not moving upward in price is not a criteria to even judge it for not performing well because there are lot of trades and withdrawal going on and as people put in money for a purpose, so as they also pull it out for purpose too, people cannot just continue to Put money without removing it which we all think will be the main factor for having an increased value.

Most of the people who've been involved in crypto these days prefer to sell their holdings to get fiat money and makes cryptocurrency as their source of income. People always dumped their coins for important purpose, and even if bitcoin was at unpredictable stage like bearish trend, no choice but failed to hold their asset due personal needs.