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Author Topic: My prediction  (Read 2536 times)
Dan The Man
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November 16, 2011, 03:21:46 AM
 #1

One more plunge in the next day or two to something in the low $2 range, possibly even below $2. Then a rise, probably sometime near the weekend with some jumps and starts up to about 2.9, probably not going to be breaking $3.

This is just based on looking at charts and kinda guessing. But either way, I am confident that those calling for a new sub $2 normal price are crazy. It might touch below $2 for a short moment, but it is definitely going back up.

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November 16, 2011, 03:54:50 AM
 #2

Predictions on sub 2 price are based upon a slow creep at low or constant volume. That is what happened last time so people are expecting it.

The same thing might happen differently this time, just so you can't predict the price accurately.
Oh there was a spike last time too, but so short you'd miss it if you aren't around...

The bidwall is just whoever cashed out being friendly, leaving the door open so to speak for the next one... who will arrive shortly after it has been pulled.

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November 16, 2011, 04:21:49 AM
 #3

The last few days have been courtesy of one or two individuals.  The market is going where they're pushing it.  You can't really model market behavior until they decide they're done.

You can: try to predict what their next moves will be; or try to predict what will happen after they quit screwing around; but you can't really say what will happen "in the next day or two" based on the charts.

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Matthew N. Wright
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November 16, 2011, 09:52:41 PM
 #4

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ThomasV
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November 16, 2011, 10:04:56 PM
 #5

there will not be many more massive sales like the one we saw two days ago.
there's just not enough bitcoins for that.

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November 16, 2011, 10:06:35 PM
 #6

there will not be many more massive sales like the one we saw two days ago.
there's just not enough bitcoins for that.

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November 16, 2011, 11:10:22 PM
 #7

there will not be many more massive sales like the one we saw two days ago.
there's just not enough bitcoins for that.

How many times do you suppose 40k goes into 7.5M? I'm sure there are more than a few people who can do that kind of damage again. The question is, are they dumb enough (or smart enough, all depends on how you look at it) to do so?

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November 16, 2011, 11:49:51 PM
 #8

there will not be many more massive sales like the one we saw two days ago.
there's just not enough bitcoins for that.

How many times do you suppose 40k goes into 7.5M? I'm sure there are more than a few people who can do that kind of damage again. The question is, are they dumb enough (or smart enough, all depends on how you look at it) to do so?
Keep in mind: for every seller of 40k BTC, there is one (or more) buyer(s) of 40k BTC - perfectly free to dump them right again.
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November 17, 2011, 12:09:59 AM
 #9

there will not be many more massive sales like the one we saw two days ago.
there's just not enough bitcoins for that.

How many times do you suppose 40k goes into 7.5M? I'm sure there are more than a few people who can do that kind of damage again. The question is, are they dumb enough (or smart enough, all depends on how you look at it) to do so?
Keep in mind: for every seller of 40k BTC, there is one (or more) buyer(s) of 40k BTC - perfectly free to dump them right again.

and if you take into account some of them will acquire btc by other means, otc and such, and then sell on mtgox just to drop the price...

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ElectricMucus
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November 17, 2011, 12:36:53 AM
 #10

there will not be many more massive sales like the one we saw two days ago.
there's just not enough bitcoins for that.

How many times do you suppose 40k goes into 7.5M? I'm sure there are more than a few people who can do that kind of damage again. The question is, are they dumb enough (or smart enough, all depends on how you look at it) to do so?
Keep in mind: for every seller of 40k BTC, there is one (or more) buyer(s) of 40k BTC - perfectly free to dump them right again.

and if you take into account some of them will acquire btc by other means, otc and such, and then sell on mtgox just to drop the price...

That's made up on the spot.

Wild speculation presented as fact.

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November 17, 2011, 12:44:19 AM
 #11

I don't think people who buy BTC now are the kind to waste them in insane dumping moves.

There's also no profit in trying to anti-arbitrage by buying elsewhere if Mtgox price is particularly low. There is no magical mechanism that makes one market reduce prices on another.

And finally, it wasn't a volume of 40k, it was over 360k BTC. Even if quite a bit was traded twice, that is extremely large and does not have much room to get even larger.

This price dumping while the market is being flooded with BTC volume is stupid. There are and will be people buying who do not join this party, and these people are the ones ending up with coins in the end. Then, the selling just stops. The lower the price goes, the easier it is for bulls to just buy everything and end the strange show.
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November 17, 2011, 12:47:47 AM
 #12

I still believe the initial drop was a buyer who wanted to double down at a discount.  Dump your holdings, then buy all the panic sells.

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RyNinDaCleM
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November 17, 2011, 12:55:39 AM
 #13


And finally, it wasn't a volume of 40k, it was over 360k BTC. Even if quite a bit was traded twice, that is extremely large and does not have much room to get even larger.


I agree about the 24hr volume. That was huge!
The 40k was the initial sell-off. The majority of the rest was panic selling/opportunistic buying. The rest of the day was nothing compared to the butt-hurt of the first $0.50 drop, followed by the aftershock $0.30 drop a short time later.   

old_engineer
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November 17, 2011, 09:04:02 AM
 #14

there will not be many more massive sales like the one we saw two days ago.
there's just not enough bitcoins for that.

How many times do you suppose 40k goes into 7.5M? I'm sure there are more than a few people who can do that kind of damage again. The question is, are they dumb enough (or smart enough, all depends on how you look at it) to do so?

If someone else wanted out of bitcoin, we'd see a huge dent taken out of one of the bidwalls that were at 2.50, 2.20, and now 2.10.  Maybe there was at one point - I wasn't paying that close of attention - but I don't think there was.

No, there can only be a handful of entities that are holding 100k+ bitcoins and want to sell out.  But I think the number is exactly 1, and this is a one-time dump/opportunity.

Dan The Man
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November 17, 2011, 03:17:56 PM
 #15

One more plunge in the next day or two to something in the low $2 range, possibly even below $2.

First half of prediction... check.

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November 17, 2011, 04:00:26 PM
 #16

One more plunge in the next day or two to something in the low $2 range, possibly even below $2.

First half of prediction... check.

Yeah, makes me wish I had started my latest short position at something higher than 2.17.  Well, at least by holding on tight and keeping my lunch down, I was able to keep all my limbs during the ride.  Now, whether to take a long position from here...

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Dan The Man
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November 17, 2011, 04:02:14 PM
 #17

One more plunge in the next day or two to something in the low $2 range, possibly even below $2.

First half of prediction... check.

Yeah, makes me wish I had started my latest short position at something higher than 2.17.  Well, at least by holding on tight and keeping my lunch down, I was able to keep all my limbs during the ride.  Now, whether to take a long position from here...

Most definitely go long until 2.9 Just don't leverage so bad that you can't take a few bumps on the way.

Crypt_Current
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November 17, 2011, 04:16:35 PM
 #18

One more plunge in the next day or two to something in the low $2 range, possibly even below $2.

First half of prediction... check.

Yeah, makes me wish I had started my latest short position at something higher than 2.17.  Well, at least by holding on tight and keeping my lunch down, I was able to keep all my limbs during the ride.  Now, whether to take a long position from here...

Most definitely go long until 2.9 Just don't leverage so bad that you can't take a few bumps on the way.

HRm well now it appears I am only able to do 2.5x leverage on bitcoinica... anyone else still can do 5??

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November 17, 2011, 04:58:58 PM
 #19

Quote
In the future one week, we will roll out an update that allows you to choose your favorite leverage level from 1:1, 2.5:1, 5:1 and 10:1 (subject to verification). Meanwhile, if you are not satisfied with this change, you can request an increase of leverage to 5:1 by sending an email to support@bitcoinica.com or submitting a support ticket. We will fulfill your request immediately as we see it.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=52092.msg621746

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November 17, 2011, 05:02:33 PM
 #20

One more plunge in the next day or two to something in the low $2 range, possibly even below $2.

First half of prediction... check.

Yeah, makes me wish I had started my latest short position at something higher than 2.17.  Well, at least by holding on tight and keeping my lunch down, I was able to keep all my limbs during the ride.  Now, whether to take a long position from here...

Most definitely go long until 2.9 Just don't leverage so bad that you can't take a few bumps on the way.

HRm well now it appears I am only able to do 2.5x leverage on bitcoinica... anyone else still can do 5??
Zhoutong lowered it for everyone.  See other thread in this subforum by him.  He seemed kinda upset that his system was partly to blame for pushing the price down so far with 1:5 leverage.
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