03.11: Descending Triangle On 4hr Bitcoin Chart To Look Out For?

[dragonvslinux]

Pattern invalidated after breakout to the upside. Notably the following candle wicked down to VPVR support, now trying to turn resistance trend-line into support.

BTCUSD: Descending Triangle On 4hr Chart To Look Out For?

Source: Trading View, November 3rd 2019. Screenshot: November 5th 2019.

VPVR (Visible Range) shows median traded price at $9180 level with the support level of the descending triangle at $9020. Note this is also the 200 Day MA level, therefore this is not a short call. The measured move of -8.5% calculates the price target of $8250, which is another VPVR level of median price from the recent volume history from the breakdown of the Weekly descending triangle.

Nonetheless, a 4hr close below $9020 would be bearish with a Daily close below the 200 Day MA required to confirm bearish bias.
The descending triangle pattern will enter the breakout zone after 75% completion on November 5th 20:00 GMT.

Comment: Here is the view of the VPVR on the Daily chart, supporting the target of $8250:

End result: VPVR target of $8,250 achieved. Pattern completed after all:

Own work: dragononcrypto

Related posts:
A few random thoughts from charts from this week
Bitcoin Is Repeating History? TA Series On Repeating Past Patterns

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[exstasie]

Found another one, did you?



The only thing I see here is a bull flag of sorts. Clear flag pole and sideways pullback above the 50% level:



A typical pullback would be to the 50%-61.8% range, the green box. However the pullback has been shallow and drawn out, suggesting this may be more of a sideways "time" correction than a "price" correction. I'm not sure we'll make it there.

Look to the left to see examples of failed short squeezes, and how quickly the gains were lost. It's quite a contrast to the current chart.

[dragonvslinux]

Found another one, did you?

Yup. Not too difficult since the charts are littered with them and 75-80% turn out to be bearish patterns to make more satoshis from
As I mentioned elsewhere I doubt the target has to be reached if it breaks down. This does look like one of the 1 out of 4 or 5 that won't break down though, for referenced reasons. Adam & eve is over though, ascending triangle broken, time to get with the program. If you can't see this pattern, you might be need glasses. I see your bull flag no problem  

Here's another bull flag on the monthly charts too for example:

[exstasie]

Yup. Not too difficult since the charts are littered with them and 75-80% turn out to be bearish patterns to make more satoshis from

Thomas Bulkowski disagrees. This is what his backtesting says:

Breakout: Can be in any direction but is upward 53% of the time.

If price rises into the pattern it breaks out upward 63% of the time.

In a vacuum, I'm really not sure about upward/downward bias. I've never backtested this pattern myself. I have noticed however, that they (like all triangles) are often continuation patterns.

[dragonvslinux]

Yup. Not too difficult since the charts are littered with them and 75-80% turn out to be bearish patterns to make more satoshis from

Thomas Bulkowski disagrees.

Breakout: Can be in any direction but is upward 53% of the time.

If price rises into the pattern it breaks out upward 63% of the time.

Where does it says Thomas disagrees with this theory?
As far as I can tell, this backtesting has nothing to do with Bitcoin. I assume it's regarding traditional markets?
I was referring to studying Bitcoin's descending triangles, couldn't care about the rest, it's must less predictable.

[exstasie]

Yup. Not too difficult since the charts are littered with them and 75-80% turn out to be bearish patterns to make more satoshis from

Thomas Bulkowski disagrees.

Breakout: Can be in any direction but is upward 53% of the time.

If price rises into the pattern it breaks out upward 63% of the time.

Where does it says Thomas disagrees with this theory?

His numbers show descending triangles aren't generally bearish patterns. My anecdotal experience agrees with him. The preceding trend is much more important in determining bullish/bearish bias.

As far as I can tell, this backtesting has nothing to do with Bitcoin. I assume it's regarding traditional markets?

Yes.

Chart patterns are a form of fractal analysis. They are an analysis of market psychology, not fundamentals. Like all TA, they are equally applicable to all markets. There's no logic to support this idea that chart patterns act drastically different on BTC than every other market.

I was referring to studying Bitcoin's descending triangles, couldn't care about the rest, it's must less predictable.

There is no data to prove that point. Most of the examples in your thread don't actually meet the definition of a descending triangle.

At the daily or higher, there is only one textbook example of a descending triangle in Bitcoin's history: the 2018 triangle. And like most triangles would be expected to be, it was a continuation pattern. It was preceded by a crash and followed by one.

[1Referee]

I have seen a lot people nowadays point at descending and symmetrical triangles and they keep adjusting as the price just keeps moving sideways, which invalidates the triangles they see.

Technically speaking, there is some sort of a descending triangle going on if you shift to the monthly time frame, so it could very well be that this whole month will consist of sideways price action. I'm actually happy to see it do so as long as we close daily candles above the 200MA. It should push the price up organically to explode or implode.

The $9350 level which was the horizontal bottom support level of the previous descending triangle, is now forming massive resistance. Not one single 4H close above it in the last couple of days.

[dragonvslinux]

And the greed is back...

[error08]

And the greed is back...

So, it just means one thing, a positive trend in the market.
Time to acquire more coins before to ride the incoming big wave.



Nevertheless, is bitcoin price going to $8250?
It will be a good opportunity to accumulate bitcoin at cheaper price.
Let's see what tomorrow will brings.

The measured move of -8.5% calculates the price target of $8250, which is another VPVR level of median price from the recent volume history from the breakdown of the Weekly descending triangle.
Nonetheless, a 4hr close below $9020 would be bearish with a Daily close below the 200 Day MA required to confirm bearish bias.
The descending triangle pattern will enter the breakout zone after 75% completion on November 5th 20:00 GMT.

[adaseb]

Ever since the Xi pump we have been pretty much going nowhere and your triangle is what most traders are looking at.

The issue with crypto and Bitcoin in general is that there are a lot of traps out there. Everybody is expecting our pivot low to hold or at least until the CME gap is filled and most likely it will be stressful what happens afterwards.

I am either expecting some type of front run for the Gap traders or some type of bull trap. It wouldn't surprise me if it hit the gap, went up like $200 and the next day a massive dump and the entire Xi to fade. Or it will come close to the gap and quickly reverse leaving most retail traders behind.

[figmentofmyass]

Ever since the Xi pump we have been pretty much going nowhere and your triangle is what most traders are looking at.

The issue with crypto and Bitcoin in general is that there are a lot of traps out there. Everybody is expecting our pivot low to hold or at least until the CME gap is filled and most likely it will be stressful what happens afterwards.

I am either expecting some type of front run for the Gap traders or some type of bull trap. It wouldn't surprise me if it hit the gap, went up like $200 and the next day a massive dump and the entire Xi to fade. Or it will come close to the gap and quickly reverse leaving most retail traders behind.

the weekly candle just closed above $9200. that's pretty damn bullish IMO---a whole week without a single wick into the previous trading range. all of the sellers from october are trapped and are now providing buy support.

re traps in the bitcoin market, i hear you. if the market fills the CME gap, bears will be desperate to buy $8500+ IMO. price won't stay down there for long at all. that's the trap to watch for. over-eager bears will short a break of the $8900s low and then quickly get trapped.

[dragonvslinux]

Looks like the current descending triangle is being testing, with a close just above the resistance trend line at least.
It needs to find support instead of falling back inside the triangle, otherwise it will further confirm the pattern.

Ever since the Xi pump we have been pretty much going nowhere and your triangle is what most traders are looking at.

The issue with crypto and Bitcoin in general is that there are a lot of traps out there. Everybody is expecting our pivot low to hold or at least until the CME gap is filled and most likely it will be stressful what happens afterwards.

I am either expecting some type of front run for the Gap traders or some type of bull trap. It wouldn't surprise me if it hit the gap, went up like $200 and the next day a massive dump and the entire Xi to fade. Or it will come close to the gap and quickly reverse leaving most retail traders behind.

the weekly candle just closed above $9200. that's pretty damn bullish IMO---a whole week without a single wick into the previous trading range. all of the sellers from october are trapped and are now providing buy support.

This is bullish it's true, but unfortunately the Weekly candle also closed below the triangle breakdown resistance of $9,420, which is bearish.
It's usual for old support to be tested as resistance after a breakdown, I'm surprised it's taken this long, but there's the retest and so far the resistance has held up.

[error08]

This is bullish it's true, but unfortunately the Weekly candle also closed below the triangle breakdown resistance of $9,420, which is bearish.
It's usual for old support to be tested as resistance after a breakdown, I'm surprised it's taken this long, but there's the retest and so far the resistance has held up.

How is it going dragoncrypto?
Bitcoin still fluctuates within $9165 — $9485 today.
What's next? Whether it will going to decline or any sign of bullish market?

[dragonvslinux]

Pattern invalidated after breakout to the upside. Notably the following candle wicked down to VPVR support, now trying to turn resistance trend-line into support.

Own work: dragononcrypto

this is not a short call.

[dragonvslinux]

Posting this for reference sake. Although the descending triangle was invalidated, the breakzone (timeframe of movement) and VPVR target (price to return to) was correct.

Comment: Here is the view of the VPVR on the Daily chart, supporting the target of $8250:

End result: VPVR target of $8,250 achieved. Pattern completed after all:

Own work: dragononcrypto