So I came up with some math on how to win multibets. I'll analyse
Select 3 from 4 option: Win 5x category of
Royse's MultibetMarket #1: Who wins the TossIND
WI
The probability of winning Market #1 is 1/2 or
50% (Superb)
Market #3: Team with Highest score at 1st DismissalIND
WI
Draw
Though we can say that IND has a 55% chance of winning, WI 40% and Draw say 5% based on the knowledge of the game, let's not complicate my math and keep this simple.
Scenario 1: Assuming they all have an equal chance, the probability of winning Market #3 is 1/3 or
33.33% (Good)
Scenario 2: Assuming a draw is highly unlikely and can be ignored, the probability of winning Market #3 is 1/2 or
50% (Superb)
Market #8 and #9: Over 1 total for IND and WIUnder 4.5
Exactly 5
Over 5.5
Same here, for a T20 match scoring Over 5.5 runs in Over 1 would have a better shot at winning but that might not be the case in several cases. If you have seen several matches, We can't ignore 5 as we ignored Draw in Market #3
For the ease, assume all have an equal chance, so the probability of winning Market #8 or 9 is 1/3 or
33.33% (Good)
Coming to Multibets,
Assume I choose Markets #1 #3 and #8All the markets are independent of the other, so the probabilty would be
Scenario 1: 1/2*1/3*1/3 = 1/18 or
5.5% (damn)
Scenario 2: 1/2*1/2*1/3 = 1/12 or
8.33% As you can see, the probability of winning has drastically changed with the multibets
If you choose Markets #3 #8 and #9,Scenario 1: 1/3*1/3*1/3 = 1/27 or
3.7% (god damn not even 5%)
Scenario 2: 1/2*1/3*1/3 = 1/18 or
5.5% So if you are planning to win Multibets in the 5x pool,
choose Markets #1, #3 and (#8 or #9) for better chances of winning.
Royse might not like this post as a bookie
PS: This is just a rough calculation
Even with this math understanding, you might fail miserably