🏏🏏 Mutual betting & MutiBet IN SAME MATCH discussion & active Markets 🏆

[AB de Royse777]

Bad luck akhjob. Again no win in the multiBet event. It really is frustrating. I am interested to give some sats to a winner but seems like I will have to wait more.

I too wonder why it's hard to win Multibets  I'll do some math tomorrow on the odds of winning Multibets.
I am glad that I won atleast the mutual bet pool 

I totally missed you and deadly in the pool LOL
Congratulations again.
Once I hear from deadly then I will send the winning funds to you. Please post an address in the pool topic.

[1714113058]

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[akhjob]

So I came up with some math on how to win multibets. I'll analyse Select 3 from 4 option: Win 5x category of Royse's Multibet

Market #1: Who wins the Toss
IND
WI

The probability of winning Market #1 is 1/2 or 50% (Superb)


Market #3: Team with Highest score at 1st Dismissal
IND
WI
Draw

Though we can say that IND has a 55% chance of winning, WI 40% and Draw say 5% based on the knowledge of the game, let's not complicate my math and keep this simple.
Scenario 1: Assuming they all have an equal chance, the probability of winning Market #3 is 1/3 or 33.33% (Good)
Scenario 2: Assuming a draw is highly unlikely and can be ignored, the probability of winning Market #3 is 1/2 or 50% (Superb)


Market #8 and #9: Over 1 total for IND and WI
Under 4.5
Exactly 5
Over 5.5

Same here, for a T20 match scoring Over 5.5 runs in Over 1 would have a better shot at winning but that might not be the case in several cases. If you have seen several matches, We can't ignore 5 as we ignored Draw in Market #3
For the ease, assume all have an equal chance, so the probability of winning Market #8 or 9 is 1/3 or 33.33% (Good)


Coming to Multibets, Assume I choose Markets #1 #3 and #8
All the markets are independent of the other, so the probabilty would be
Scenario 1: 1/2*1/3*1/3 = 1/18 or 5.5%  (damn)
Scenario 2: 1/2*1/2*1/3 = 1/12 or 8.33%

As you can see, the probability of winning has drastically changed with the multibets

If you choose Markets #3 #8 and #9,
Scenario 1: 1/3*1/3*1/3 = 1/27 or 3.7%  (god damn not even 5%)
Scenario 2: 1/2*1/3*1/3 = 1/18 or 5.5%

So if you are planning to win Multibets in the 5x pool, choose Markets #1, #3 and (#8 or #9) for better chances of winning.
Royse might not like this post as a bookie  

PS: This is just a rough calculation   Even with this math understanding, you might fail miserably  

[Haunebu]

So if you are planning to win Multibets in the 5x pool, choose Markets #1, #3 and (#8 or #9) for better chances of winning.
Royse might not like this post as a bookie  

PS: This is just a rough calculation   Even with this math understanding, you might fail miserably  

Good calculations, but almost are aware that multi-bets favor the bookie heavily which is why majority of the punters like usually wager small amounts to try and win big amounts for fun primarily.

Not many focus on such bets seriously and many actively discourage them. Among the bets that Royse offers, I feel that the boundaries, sixes and 1st dismissal highest score are the best ones while the toss is the toughest one(No skill required).

[akhjob]

So if you are planning to win Multibets in the 5x pool, choose Markets #1, #3 and (#8 or #9) for better chances of winning.
Royse might not like this post as a bookie  

PS: This is just a rough calculation   Even with this math understanding, you might fail miserably  

Good calculations, but almost are aware that multi-bets favor the bookie heavily which is why majority of the punters like usually wager small amounts to try and win big amounts for fun primarily.

Not many focus on such bets seriously and many actively discourage them. Among the bets that Royse offers, I feel that the boundaries, sixes and 1st dismissal highest score are the best ones while the toss is the toughest one(No skill required).

Yeah it's true that many are not interested in Multibets but you can get bigger rewards if you hit the spot 
Toss is the easiest one based on math. It doesn't need any skill, but that's the same with all the markets. Maybe a basic understanding of the game and players might help to some extent. You might think Rohit Sharma is in good form and might score big, but he might just leave the ball and end up to be a maiden 1st over and might start thrashing 6s from the next over. One cannot predict such things even with understanding of the players and the teams.
Btw, Boundaries and sixes are not available for the 5x pool

[Haunebu]

Toss is the easiest one based on math. It doesn't need any skill, but that's the same with all the markets. Maybe a basic understanding of the game and players might help to some extent. You might think Rohit Sharma is in good form and might score big, but he might just leave the ball and end up to be a maiden 1st over and might start thrashing 6s from the next over. One cannot predict such things even with understanding of the players and the teams.

I disagree. Toss is the toughest one since it is gambling which purely involves luck and nothing else while the other markets require research and luck making them way better in comparison. Example: Can Afghanistan win against India(Test match) through toss or the game itself?

Btw, Boundaries and sixes are not available for the 5x pool

Was not aware of that. This makes it even worse for punters in my opinion.

[akhjob]

I disagree. Toss is the toughest one since it is gambling which purely involves luck and nothing else while the other markets require research and luck making them way better in comparison. Example: Can Afghanistan win against India(Test match) through toss or the game itself?

I cant understand your example clearly. AFG may win a toss against IND which is a 50:50 chance, If you are asking whether they'll win against India in a test match that will be a 20:80 chance. But they don't offer such markets in a Multibet.
Btw, are you saying that Afghanistan is too weak that they can't score 5 runs or over 5.5 runs in the 1st over against INDIA in a T20 match? Or that the Indian openers will not get out before managing a 50 run partnership?

[Haunebu]

I cant understand your example clearly. AFG may win a toss against IND which is a 50:50 chance, If you are asking whether they'll win against India in a test match that will be a 20:80 chance.

Isn't it obvious? Afghanistan can easily win against India when it comes to the toss since its purely luck while they will definitely lose against India in a 1X2 test match bet since luck is not the only factor in play.

Btw, are you saying that Afghanistan is too weak that they can't score 5 runs or over 5.5 runs in the 1st over against INDIA in a T20 match? Or that the Indian openers will not get out before managing a 50 run partnership?

Lol. Where did I say any of that? I never mentioned a T-20 match anywhere in any of my posts above. Just wanted to clarify why the toss is the worst bet of them all.

[akhjob]

Lol. Where did I say any of that? I never mentioned a T-20 match anywhere in any of my posts above. Just wanted to clarify why the toss is the worst bet of them all.

I did the math for a T20 game which is very hard to predict the results, but you bring up a test match as a example    That's where the misunderstanding is. In T20, luck is a major factor in my opinion. Test matches are more skill based rather than luck.

[Haunebu]

Lol. Where did I say any of that? I never mentioned a T-20 match anywhere in any of my posts above. Just wanted to clarify why the toss is the worst bet of them all.

I did the math for a T20 game which is very hard to predict the results, but you bring up a test match as a example    That's where the misunderstanding is. In T20, luck is a major factor in my opinion. Test matches are more skill based rather than luck.

You are not understanding my point. The toss is the same irrespective of the format(Test, ODI, T-20 etc) which is why it will always be one of the worst bets to place in my opinion. Its like playing Roulette without the 0.

Also, I chose to provide the test example since luck is not the only factor involved there. Skill matters too as you mentioned. This gives you the edge over the bookie basically.

[AB de Royse777]

Guys!
New pool for India vs Sri Lanka.

India vs Sri Lanka 3rd and final T20I of the series. First match washed out, in the 2nd match India had very easy win but this 3rd match is a different game and to win the series India needs to win again or series draw. Who do you think will win? Let's response with picking your option in the pool.

[JohnBitCo]

Lol. Where did I say any of that? I never mentioned a T-20 match anywhere in any of my posts above. Just wanted to clarify why the toss is the worst bet of them all.

I did the math for a T20 game which is very hard to predict the results, but you bring up a test match as a example    That's where the misunderstanding is. In T20, luck is a major factor in my opinion. Test matches are more skill based rather than luck.

You are not understanding my point. The toss is the same irrespective of the format(Test, ODI, T-20 etc) which is why it will always be one of the worst bets to place in my opinion. Its like playing Roulette without the 0.

Also, I chose to provide the test example since luck is not the only factor involved there. Skill matters too as you mentioned. This gives you the edge over the bookie basically.

Toss is purely dependent upon luck and anyone can win or lose the bet on toss. The rest of the betting for example winner of the match can be think upon seeing the past and current performance of the teams and many other factors but for toss you do not need to have any knowledge. Just Bet on toss and hope you win.

[AB de Royse777]

Finally a series where two team has same strength and I think a pool for the matches in this series will be very unpredictable which means we will have an entertaining pool. The first ODI is starting tomorrow and who do you think will win it and stay ahead in the series?

Feel free to join the pool: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5217257.0

[leea-1334]

You are not understanding my point. The toss is the same irrespective of the format(Test, ODI, T-20 etc) which is why it will always be one of the worst bets to place in my opinion. Its like playing Roulette without the 0.

Toss is the worst bet, for sure,,, because house edge is very shitty in these 50/50. Remember that if you get less than 1.98 for a 50/50 (like even or odd goals/cards/toss),,, then you are doing more than 1% edge which you might as well find a dice game with 1% or lower house edge.  I should say though that Roulette edge is usually 2.7% on 0 or even 5% on 00

[akhjob]

Ok. Since everyone is saying that toss is the hardest to crack.. I'm going to experiment in the upcoming T20 matches between IND and NZ. Let's see how it goes.

[AB de Royse777]

Three match starting on the 24th:
Pakistan vs Bangladesh 1st T20
South Africa vs England 4th Test
New Zealand vs India 1st T20

What do you guys want for Pool?

1. Do you want me to create pool for all three
2. Only one or two selective and in this case which ones?

And how about the multiBet events. I see there are no much response so I really thought to pull back a bit. Do you want any multi bet in any of the events?

Let me know.

Cheers,

[JSRAW]

^^ Multibet is hard to crack lol but if you are creating multibet for 3 games outcome (Won-Lost) in same bet, which you mentioned then i am interested and consider me in.

Otherwise i am up for 2 separate pools NZ vs IND and SA vs ENG.

[UmerIdrees]

Three match starting on the 24th:
Pakistan vs Bangladesh 1st T20
South Africa vs England 4th Test
New Zealand vs India 1st T20

What do you guys want for Pool?

1. Do you want me to create pool for all three
2. Only one or two selective and in this case which ones?

And how about the multiBet events. I see there are no much response so I really thought to pull back a bit. Do you want any multi bet in any of the events?

Let me know.

Cheers,

I will definitely recommend for a separate betting pool for Pakistan vs Bangladesh 1st T-20 Match.  Although i will not bet on the match
So maybe you make a pool and no one joins    The other T20 may be more interesting one but i will still recommend this betting pool which involves Pakistan. 

[deadley]

I am ok with separate pool for all 3 matches. I like betting so will participate in all 3.

Three match starting on the 24th:
Pakistan vs Bangladesh 1st T20
South Africa vs England 4th Test
New Zealand vs India 1st T20

What do you guys want for Pool?

1. Do you want me to create pool for all three
2. Only one or two selective and in this case which ones?

And how about the multiBet events. I see there are no much response so I really thought to pull back a bit. Do you want any multi bet in any of the events?

Let me know.

Cheers,

[akhjob]

@Royse777 I'm ok with 2 mutual betting pools IND Vs NZ and SA Vs ENG.

Regarding multi bet, I'll join IND Vs NZ, if you have one. I'll also join if you have a multi bet as JSRAW suggested.

[Little Mouse]

I will definitely recommend for a separate betting pool for Pakistan vs Bangladesh 1st T-20 Match.

I recommend too. I will participate in this match although we don't have the Shakib 
Is there anyone who will place a bet for Pakistan? I will be placing it on Bangladesh. Royse please create a separate one for this match.

And how about the multiBet events.

Multi bet on IND vs NZ will be good one I think. Some people including me will join.