BTC Halving Effect???

[beerlover]

There is what "expected" of bitcoin price is expected and there is also what not expected of bitcoin but a shocking result could be. Now, we all know bitcoin is expected to go up, it is simple math, if the bitcoin cost right now is 8200 per bitcoin and the price is 8800 or whatever at this current moment that means bitcoin will be halved and the cost will be 16400 and the price needs to be higher. So, that is the easiest option there is, it is quite simple and everyone would expect that to happen.

What people are forgetting is that difficulty is what matters and just like trader whales there are miner whales so one may literally mine for as cheap as possible and make a loss and kill all competition so they could mine cheap and the price will fall because of that.

[Wexlike]

My biggest concern is, literaly everybody is awaiting a bullrun. Some expect 50k, some 100k and others a million. And what does bitcoin do most of the time? The opposite. I hope for a new ATH but my worries are there.

Take the risk and hold your coin, once the market bounced back it will bring a huge jump. Halving will take the market to another rise
and from that it will be more in realistic figures, you need to take what you fully understand not to harmed your investment if the downfall
still happened. There's no accurate time frame, always be optimistic and you can take the long ride for this investment business.

The stock to flow ratio charts are a beautiful thing when it comes to the halving effect. I highly recommend the following reddit chart to fully understand the impact of the bitcoin halving.

https://medium.com/@AJC241469/on-bitcoins-convergence-simplified-part-1-3e521b0b1515

[STT]

Ok you got me beat on that chart, not seen that one before and I've seen a million possibly.     The clearest points here might be that BTC is older then LTC and each half of the block reward is less important then the last as there more BTC already produced the reduction is diminishing in importance.    We are into the territory of fees mattering now to mining rewards where as five years ago fees meant really nothing or thats how I remember it.

Also with every point observable on BTC the price is connected via a spring, its not direct.    I fully expect price to be more positive before halvening then after because anticipation promotes speculation, that then becomes more important then the event itself.   As always the price gets ahead of itself and then if we go back to the first point the bulk of BTC has already been issued and that weight like a Jenga block game and how it shifts to sell or buy, its way more important then this blip in block rewards.   Compare the two numbers, the amount of BTC liquid available to be sold into buy orders and that alteration to block reward.
   On the event timing itself almost nothing occurs, a year later yes some change happened so its perception vs reality and people go OTT.   If LTC was disappointing, correct observation would be to return just before BTC halvening and draw a conclusion; at present you are observing speculators not the news or fundamental change itself; thats what I strongly suspect.

[Reid]

I bet this is posted in bitcoin discussion before it was put here in economics.

The "halving" definition suddenly changed because of the answers of some users here.
It is supposed to be about the miners. The block reward will be cut in half. That is the real definition of it, sadly I didnt read much but it is all about the price, etc etc, financial, monetary, blah blah.  

Here is what could happen after a cut of half in block reward.
Obviously, the value should get higher because the miners reward are getting smaller. They will need to pay for their bills right?
But that is unsure. The market will still tell how much per bitcoin is.

If there is no profit though or even ROI, then we might lose our miners and then the effects. How could our transaction flow in if there will be no confirmation?
Although, the difficulty will be dropped and new miners could get in, it will still take time which we dont like right? Slow transaction is a pain in the ass.
It will make you worry about where your bitcoin is.

[perla]

I'm still a newbie and I'm confused.

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Is that also what can be expected of the Bitcoin halving?

I think it is all depends on the coin. Halving or maybe hardfork or other maintenance sometime affect to price of a coin. But developer must also think how can the coin still make demands. So people can interested to buy it and then make price increased. Like bitcoin which already popular, people already wait for it and then they start to buy the coin which can cause pump.

[Ridwan Fauzi]

You may need to look the history of both coin price when halving event came. Myself have ever read an article the price movement when the both coin have met halving event. I'll start with bitcoin, it have been several years when the halving event came its price will pump a lot, as an example the price had increased a lot at 2017 ago whilst the halving had come at 2016. I remember before halving event came its price just $900 even low then that but did you see its price at 2017 ago? the price had touched almost $20.000.

Which is mean, halving event is an event that alwasy be waited by all its user. But when halving event came to litecoin its price will dump first but after that the price will surge drastically. As you may know the halving event had came to this coin at 2015 ago, and at that time the price of litecoin just decreased. The price of this coim will surge after bitcoin halving event, you may see when 2017 the price of this coin had increased as well. So, I just guessing the halving event for litecoin will be felt after bitcoin halving, we will see it at May 2020.

[pooya87]

I think it is all depends on the coin. Halving or maybe hardfork or other maintenance sometime affect to price of a coin. But developer must also think how can the coin still make demands. So people can interested to buy it and then make price increased. Like bitcoin which already popular, people already wait for it and then they start to buy the coin which can cause pump.

it is not just about the coin per se, it is about the other side of the supply and demand principle meaning the demand part. in a very simplified terms it is like saying 10 people are buying 100 items every day. tomorrow there will be 11 people buying the new 100 items but the next day there will be 12 people buying 50 new items. and that is why the price rises when bitcoin halving takes place.
but for an altcoin that 10 people the next day are going to be 9 and then 8 and so on. and on top of that there is the hype of the pump of that altcoin, for example in case of LTC the hype was there but the pump failed so everyone dumped it hard that is why it has crashed now.

[barabarian1]

If I speak from an economics background, bitcoin halving is expected to rise its price! Because this is deflationary in nature which decreases the supply of it and increases it purchasing power. However, cryptocurrencies are not designed to fit into the definition of standard money so no one can assure you about the outcome! What everyone is doing is, speculation! It sometime goes right and sometime goes wrong! You already have an example, Litecoin. Which didn't come out as expected after halving and the price is in the red zone. Whoever is saying that bitcoin's price will go higher after the halving, they are all speculating and no one is certain about what's going to happen! So don't get confused and don't try to get an answer! Probably you will get it all wrong!

yes I agree with you if you see the cycle of bitcoin a few years back everytime after halving bitcoin will be bullish. so I'm sure next year bitcoin will be bullish too. The last 2 years we have been in the bear market so I think next year is the time for the bull market. this is our hope that all of us can be realized. we can only hope and speculate anyway in the end the market will determine the bitcoin bull or not.

[justdimin]

Bitcoin halving is expected in May, 2020. From what I've been reading about halving, it seems that it should have a positive effect on any crypto coins pricing.

As per basic economic rule of supply and demand, all the reduced supply will result in positive effect on prices. No exception for any commodity in this world. Also, bitcoin halving has indirect consequences to bitcoin prices in terms of bitcoin mining. We cannot ignore the role of mining process in deciding the price of bitcoin. After halving, due to reduced supply, many new mining aspirants may choose direct investing into bitcoin rather than setting up a mining farm. So, be optimistic about up surge on bitcoin prices after halving.

Today I read about Litecoin/LTC halving on August 5, 2019 and the halving effect after three months is negative, it's down 30% since the halving.

Same thing happened with litecoin on its previous halving too. One probable reason might be whale's manipulation. Market always react in opposite way. People keep buying with the expectation of double the price due to halving whereas prices went dumped 30% even after the halving.

After a year from the first halving of litecoin, litecoin prices peaked to its ATH. But, that was fueled by entire crypto space's bull run. We can expect same thing to happen this time around too.

[gabbie2010]

Here's a three month chart showing the drop in price.
https://i.postimg.cc/ydz8sLYT/LTC-Halving-Effect.jpg

From analytical point of view the pumping might not take effect suddenly It may take some before the halving effect come to play recalled the last halving of bitcoin it took the price more than 500 days before the price pumped to ATH I believed litecoin also need some time for the price to pump to ATH and also the price effect of halving of bitcoin next year may be instant or it may take some time before it come the price pumps to another ATH.

[oktana]

I think it is all depends on the coin. Halving or maybe hardfork or other maintenance sometime affect to price of a coin. But developer must also think how can the coin still make demands. So people can interested to buy it and then make price increased. Like bitcoin which already popular, people already wait for it and then they start to buy the coin which can cause pump.

Hardfork LTC is only maintenance and renewal, and the conditions at that time were in sharp contrast to the falling BTC charts, so there is nothing to increase LTC prices other than following the same trend. I also bought LTC at the time, but the market responded with a different pattern. It is true that more people are waiting for the bitcoin halving event, and if there is an altcoin halving with the same moment it is most likely not going to react like yesterday's ltc.

[maxreish]

It is all about the demand and supply that is why bitcoin hlving effect is probably going to pump as what everyone is expecting. That is based on the experience from the previous halving event. I can sense that bitcoin will increase it's value because miners will either not going to sell their btc or there will be less miners after that.

[Oasisman]

I can sense that bitcoin will increase it's value because miners will either not going to sell their btc or there will be less miners after that.

I dont know if there will be a huge number of miners who will going to continue considering the fact that after the halving, their rigs requires a hardware upgrade to speed up the block solving process as the rewards and supply is becoming lesser and harder to mine. Plus the electricity consumption might increase as well.

[El duderino_]

The bitcoin cycle



https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1191744063529082880?s=20



https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1191773344711897088?s=20

The halving does matter, and has its positive effect....

Some nice charts I came across.

[Dart18]

It's an event that most crypto enthusiast are looking forward too.
Because of the recent halving price have been fluctuating up but before that happens a dump comes.
It means someone behind all of this who have a good share of bitcoin is trying to make money out of that event.

I don't know if that could still happen now since the bitcoin price is too expensive. But, if ever it does then you might want to get ready to ride that big wave.
But, it is not accurate. Still, be ready.

[Yaunfitda]

It's an event that most crypto enthusiast are looking forward too.
Because of the recent halving price have been fluctuating up but before that happens a dump comes.
It means someone behind all of this who have a good share of bitcoin is trying to make money out of that event.

Well given that fact that there could be some manipulators behind, then we can also ride with them and accumulate bitcoin and but during dips.

I don't know if that could still happen now since the bitcoin price is too expensive. But, if ever it does then you might want to get ready to ride that big wave.
But, it is not accurate. Still, be ready.

Data is too small since crypto is fairly young, but then again this is speculative asset and we all know that once it got hype, which is the bitcoin block halvening, we might experience a ATH, it's just a matter of time.

[marcous]

When remembering the previous Halving, fore sure it affects the price of Bitcoin. But will experience the same drastic thing? maybe it is not certain. bitcoin price increases in 2017 are very drastic. although from now, so many speculations that after Halving will affect the price above 30k USD we will wait and see. If you talk about LTC, that however altcoin is still following the volatile BTC prices then it cannot be a reference I guess.

[bering]

I was plenty to see this that people expectation on 2020 was very high because they hoping the halving year could be the savior of bitcoin price which is a bit bored to see the current price movement because since last year the price was never getting better but indeed all of it still pure of speculate because we still not entering new year but indeed there is a chance to be there and if near to halving usually the demand will increase

[danherbias07]

Negative effect for miners since they will be having half of what they are getting from the bitcoin mining reward.

They are expecting the price to be doubled also since it must reach the need to pay for the electric bill that will be used for mining and some spare for necessities and other payments.
Maybe that is what you are looking forward to? The increase in price of bitcoin because it should still be equivalent to how much miners should make.

[Oceat]

I was plenty to see this that people expectation on 2020 was very high because they hoping the halving year could be the savior of bitcoin price which is a bit bored to see the current price movement because since last year the price was never getting better but indeed all of it still pure of speculate because we still not entering new year but indeed there is a chance to be there and if near to halving usually the demand will increase

It's been almost two years since we see a better price just like in 2017 and I hope this coming 2020 we will see much bigger difference from the previous market price. People were expecting already a better price after the halving as Bitcoin will start to become bullish (hope so). Expecting a beyond of 20k price maybe 30k-ish or more than that. The demand will probably going to grow after the halving and that would give us a boost of the price.