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Author Topic: Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?  (Read 278 times)
aardvark15
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November 15, 2019, 01:42:55 PM
Last edit: November 15, 2019, 01:57:19 PM by aardvark15
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 #1

My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.

Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)

Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)

Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops?  If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?

Please share your thoughts

 
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November 15, 2019, 01:55:06 PM
 #2

Everyone is waiting for the halving because it could bring the price to next level from the previous cycle,yeah can be called as catalyst as well for the bullish price trend to begin.But don't say the bubble pops after a year,if its bubble then it won't get reshaped so just call it as bearish market,which happens when people think this is time to cash out their profits.

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November 15, 2019, 02:03:05 PM
 #3

My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.

Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)

Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)

Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops?  If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?

Please share your thoughts

This is what i've always thinking of, 1 year after bitcoin halving bitcoin price will boom, but why before the halving people are not realizing it yet ? The supply is less and the difficulty is doubled harder than before but people are still ignoring the price of bitcoin right now, and one year after halving people are realizing bitcoin is a rare thing they will buy it for a high price while when the price is low just right now they're not buying it
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November 15, 2019, 02:03:50 PM
 #4

Everyone is waiting for the halving because it could bring the price to next level from the previous cycle,yeah can be called as catalyst as well for the bullish price trend to begin.But don't say the bubble pops after a year,if its bubble then it won't get reshaped so just call it as bearish market,which happens when people think this is time to cash out their profits.

For what it’s worth, when I say “bubble”, I don’t necessarily consider that a bad thing. As we know from the price history of Bitcoin, even with the crashes after a bubble, the price always recovers to reach new highs.

I’m just pointing out the potential for an exponential increase which is good information to have for traders. It’s potentially an opportunity to make money.

 
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November 15, 2019, 02:33:57 PM
 #5

Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)

Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops?  If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?

Please share your thoughts
No precise thing such as a guaranteed correlation on each price it might able to take.We've seen some numbers in previous 2 halvings but it doesn't mean
that it will happen guarantedly on the 3rd one or this upcoming halving.Also I don't really like to have that bubble thing but rather I prefer on seeing a
good stable gradual increase rather than short sharp spikes because we know on where it would comes next.

 
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November 15, 2019, 02:42:09 PM
 #6

Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)

Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops?  If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?

Please share your thoughts
...I prefer on seeing a
good stable gradual increase rather than short sharp spikes because we know on where it would comes next.

That depends on whether you are a trader ore a HODLer. If you just want to hold, then a steady increase is good but if you are a trader, you want some volatility to give you buying and selling opportunities.

 
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November 15, 2019, 03:37:17 PM
 #7

Analyst had always opinionated that price history repeat itself based on two instances about halving of bitcoin mentioned by the OP its obvious the same scenario is going to repeat itself come next year however the bubble might not be instant, this case of the pumping of the price of bitcoin after halving is more of fundamental thus might defies technical analysis based from own point of view thus very difficult to predict the exact period for the bubble.

 
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November 15, 2019, 03:52:27 PM
 #8

I think it will be, we are already seeing record exchange sign-ups on Asian exchanges like Binance and ecxx
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November 15, 2019, 03:53:02 PM
 #9

Look at litecoin as an example of why it is not because will have halving that the price will increase to infinity. We need a lot of constant demand, this is what can greatly increase the price. And don't believe these $55000 or $100,000 price forecasts for next year

very difficult to predict the exact period for the bubble.

in my opinion the bubble of 2017 was because of ICOs, hard forks and Futures



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November 15, 2019, 03:56:00 PM
 #10

My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.

Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)

Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)

Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops?  If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?

Please share your thoughts

This is what i've always thinking of, 1 year after bitcoin halving bitcoin price will boom, but why before the halving people are not realizing it yet ? The supply is less and the difficulty is doubled harder than before but people are still ignoring the price of bitcoin right now, and one year after halving people are realizing bitcoin is a rare thing they will buy it for a high price while when the price is low just right now they're not buying it
People are so fed up with these halving thing that they would think bitcoin price would start on or after the halving but as we look at the previous halving movement it's just taking too much before the bull run happen. It would likely to happen too in the future but usually the price start to move upward at November to December.

 
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November 15, 2019, 04:53:26 PM
 #11

I’m just pointing out the potential for an exponential increase which is good information to have for traders. It’s potentially an opportunity to make money.
Yes it does,and also this is why people prefer holding more than trading which somewhat give same benefits in long term but with different risk levels and effort needed to achieve it.Like said earlier the bitcoin halving will act as more than a catalyst like it gives assurance on price increase a while later of bitcoin halving,Bitcoin halve is going to be in mid 20200 and the potential increase on the price expected in later 2020 or in beginning of 2021.

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November 15, 2019, 07:45:38 PM
 #12

Look at litecoin as an example of why it is not because will have halving that the price will increase to infinity. We need a lot of constant demand, this is what can greatly increase the price. And don't believe these $55000 or $100,000 price forecasts for next year

very difficult to predict the exact period for the bubble.

in my opinion the bubble of 2017 was because of ICOs, hard forks and Futures



People should really remove that kind of mindset.Yes, we can speculate but we should not come to a point where we do speculate
the unrealistic ones.Demand is the key and if we do see that on next btc halving plus lessening its block reward then we can see
significant changes in price but as said its better to expect for another bull run because it wont happen on big chances.

 
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November 15, 2019, 08:13:32 PM
 #13

My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.

Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)

Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)

Any correlation? Is it possible that the halving starts a price increase that grows exponentially over the course of a year to a year and a half until the bubble pops?  If so, should we expect the same thing to happen after the halving of 2020?

Please share your thoughts
I believe that will happen again. It was one of the big events that anyone expected. we will see another big growth take place in 2020.
like other years or maybe much higher because bitcoin's capitalization has been reduced too much in recent years.
We should buy and hold it from now on, it is likely that your account will be x2 by Q2 of 2020. Wink

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November 15, 2019, 08:21:44 PM
 #14


This is what i've always thinking of, 1 year after bitcoin halving bitcoin price will boom, but why before the halving people are not realizing it yet ? The supply is less and the difficulty is doubled harder than before but people are still ignoring the price of bitcoin right now, and one year after halving people are realizing bitcoin is a rare thing they will buy it for a high price while when the price is low just right now they're not buying it

This is a human factor not to always put their interest in what they can see within their reach until it is scarce.
Anyways, on the halving. It will not be a catalyst for the increase perse. The adoption is obvious in our eyes because bitcoin itself has proved the bubble theorists wrong for still subsisting till now.

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November 15, 2019, 10:03:16 PM
 #15

It could be but the previous halvings needed time to ignite. If you check the exact times of halvings the price was pretty low right before they hit.

If the story repeats itself we won't see a bull run until Summer or Autumn 2020. I'd like us to at least stay at 50% of ATH until then but we can't even hold 9k.

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November 16, 2019, 03:53:21 AM
 #16

All of us here are just speculating and from what most of us observed here, halving is really one of the catalyst to the past bubbles. We just can't predict when that bubblr would burst, but definitely it would cause price pumps. This would only be true if bitcoin's market demand would not diminish and sustain its current levels, because if not, then halving might have only little to no effect in the prices.

 
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November 16, 2019, 04:29:03 AM
 #17

My question “Is the halving a catalyst for a Bitcoin price bubble?” is based on my observation that the halving happens every 4 years and a Bitcoin price bubble seems to also happen every 4 years.

Halving of 2016: 7/9/16
Price bubble was around mid Dec 2017 (about 17 months after halving)

Halving of 2012: 11/28/12
Price bubble was around late Nov 2013 (about 12 months after halving)

Any correlation?

I think the data speaks for itself. The halvings haven't been a catalyst for anything except a short term selloff. Buy the rumor and sell the news, as they say.

The halvings took place during bull markets but the parabolic bubbles happened at the end of those bull markets. Based on the last two go rounds, things won't get interesting until late 2020 or the following year.

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November 16, 2019, 05:00:32 AM
 #18

I also have the same view as you,
that is why halving bitcoin is highly anticipated for all investors, because the determination of the price of BITCOIN will experience a bubble or not is the year 2020 when Bitcoin has halving.
if after halving the price of bitcoin rises very high, it is possible that the events of 2013 and 2017 will occur in 2021

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November 16, 2019, 05:13:31 AM
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 #19

I have to think there is indeed some kind of correlation, even tho I think that an event as predictable as a halving *should* be incorporated into the price well before it happens, but I just don't know if that's the case.  I thought the same thing last time and the price rose afterward.

It's strange, because halvings don't really affect the scarcity of bitcoin at all, just the growth rate of new coins and since the total number is fixed and known to begin with, there doesn't seem to be a rational reason why there should be a price boost as a result of a halving.  Yet it happened and could happen again.  It *is* possible that investors expect such, so they start buying bitcoin in anticipation thereby driving up the price, and if that's the cause it doesn't have anything to do with mining difficulty or anything like that.  It would be pure speculation causing the increase.

Should be interesting to see what happens next year.  I'm hodling onto the little btc I have just in case.
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November 16, 2019, 06:43:10 AM
Last edit: November 19, 2019, 07:12:11 AM by TheUltraElite
 #20

The common view is that with each halving the mining reward decreases. This should reduce the average volume dumped by miners on the markets which cause a constant dump in the value and prevent bulls from catching up. However this statement also takes it for granted that miners are dumping which may not be correct in all cases. They have dumped coins when prices were pretty low - a desperate attempt to cover their ROI and continue mining.

But with the current price even miners would want to save up on selling. Again the opposite could also be true because the price is high it is a good time to sell for those miners who have been storing coins since 2010, if any exist.

Its more correct to think this as a placebo effect. People think the price will go up and thus buy. So the price goes up because of this buying and not halving directly. Wink

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