I am not lucky in trading - what am I doing wrong?

[Panslav]

Hello all,

need advise, if any exist
I am trading btc few years - but it seems I havent learnt anything. My plan was to use bitcoin volatility to earn some extra btc, but it seems I am not able to do this.
I am selling/buying always in wrong time. Using volume as only indicator, as others do not make sense for me.

For example I see a series of red candles with increased selling volume, price crossing support line (like today crossing 7040, 7000, 6900 USD) so I sold 0.8btc in expectation price fall to 6500 usd as few days ago.
But 1.5 hour later price changed and went up and my prediction was again wrong. And the same is during increase of price. If the price hits e.g. 10300 usd and starts falling I do not sell, because I am not sure when it will turn again. And then I usually miss fall in price from 10300 to 7300 which is finally 3000 usd, what you can earn on 1 sold btc at correct time.

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?


thanks
P.

[1714722054]

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[1714722054]

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[1714722054]

1714722054

[Lanatsa]

Sh*t happens everytime and volatility could f*cked us up anytime. You arent the only one who do experience such problem when we do talk about
buy high sell low or missed opportunities on when to sell or when to buy.Due to unpredictability of the market, its just normal to commit mistakes.
Advise? Try to learn on your mistakes, have a time to realize on what part have you done wrong. Dont focus on technicals because this isnt a precise
thing that you can rely on when it comes on predicting prices.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

You can read my point of view about TA and how to find your way in trading - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4420866.msg39412664#msg39412664. It was written 1.5 year ago as my fourth topic here. So don't be too harsh

Key sentences:
"In this point of view the only method to earn on trading when you are not a whale is to swim with whales. Looking for them on market. Trying to find them in the sea of charts."

So after years of trading you know TA very well. If price acts not as it should (based on TA) you know that a whale put his fat finger on it and is eating TA lovers demand/supply. That's where i join. My trading style is based on searching whales. I'm more like a detective or whale poacher.

[youdacapt]

Fibonacci never touches the same trend at the same time, the range 6300-8000 still looks very strong today, all you need to make sure is where to test the next movement, and then match with your analysis, whether it has crossed the perfect resistance line or not, if it fails then you can again try to buy at the support line.

Aside from being technical, we also have to look at market psychology. or our speculation will never be close to true.

[leowonderful]

Fakeouts sometimes through what seems like strong support are also somewhat common with Bitcoin, even when it seems like volume's accompanying a strong break through a level. Seems like what's happened recently in hindsight is that an inverse heads and shoulders pattern formed on the 4H which has resulted in a break back upwards to the upper $7500s where we are now, and the ~$6500 level was also historical support from a large wick back in May of this year, which was a pretty significant level of support as the next ones are in the 5000s.

Movements like these are also why you want to place your stops a bit away from obvious levels of support and resistance as the price tends to run through these areas to catch stops and goes right back down.

[enhu]

How do you use volume as indicator?  I'm still not that good at trading but have learned some of the trading systems before and they weren't telling about volume being an indicator. BTC does have big volume whether the price is low. There are few indicators that you just need to learn to start but you know when they say shit happens, it does happen when you only understand by the simplicity when they say buy low sell high

[davinchi]

I am selling/buying always in wrong time. Using volume as only indicator, as others do not make sense for me.

Never ever trade based on only one strategy nor indicator. Have ever heard about "coinciding levels across strategies"? It is a strategy about confirming one strategy with another. When 2 different strategy indicate same signal then the chances for hitting will be high. When 3 or 4 strategy says similar thing then than will happen for 100% sure.

It seems you are wrong with your selection of analysis. Change that. Adopt a new startegy and test it in demo environment before risking with your actual capital.

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?

It is possible to predict but not exactly 100%. You miss some good rallies or 2 out of 10 trades may give you losses. But, when all your trades are going against you means you must need to STOP your trading immediately and must start working on finding new methodology for your trading.

[dunfida]

Fibonacci never touches the same trend at the same time, the range 6300-8000 still looks very strong today, all you need to make sure is where to test the next movement, and then match with your analysis, whether it has crossed the perfect resistance line or not, if it fails then you can again try to buy at the support line.

Aside from being technical, we also have to look at market psychology. or our speculation will never be close to true.

Technicals together with fundamentals is ideal compared on depending on a single spot.News and events does really have a role nor an effect when it comes to market movements.
Trying to catch up an entry on a pullback is suggested but you should know how to trace up lines or to those supports which you would plan to buyback.The hard part here is that
we cant predict if there would be a breakout or a fake out but the longer you've been trading you can gradually spot those opportunities.

[yanto@1977]

First you need use MACD to know where market will go. Second thing never change open position that not reach your stop loss/ take profit area because it will change your strategy. Last one, when you say enough ( loss/ profit ) just leave, meaning find your mistake and fix it, can't fix it leave now.

[shield132]

Hello all,

need advise, if any exist
I am trading btc few years - but it seems I havent learnt anything. My plan was to use bitcoin volatility to earn some extra btc, but it seems I am not able to do this.
I am selling/buying always in wrong time. Using volume as only indicator, as others do not make sense for me.

For example I see a series of red candles with increased selling volume, price crossing support line (like today crossing 7040, 7000, 6900 USD) so I sold 0.8btc in expectation price fall to 6500 usd as few days ago.
But 1.5 hour later price changed and went up and my prediction was again wrong. And the same is during increase of price. If the price hits e.g. 10300 usd and starts falling I do not sell, because I am not sure when it will turn again. And then I usually miss fall in price from 10300 to 7300 which is finally 3000 usd, what you can earn on 1 sold btc at correct time.

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?


thanks
P.

What about to tell us when you decide to buy/sell and then let us do the opposite? This way we will profit and donate you some money for wrong predictions which was beneficial and correct for us.
Well, joke of course. OP to be fair the more you fail, the more it destroys your confidence and leads you to make more stupid mistakes. You think like you failed and you are bad in trading, maybe trading isn't your job, maybe - yes, depends on you. What about to try even more times but with very small amounts and record your % profit and loses? Do that for 2-3 months and calculate whether you did well or not. If you succeed, maybe try with higher amounts. Remember, trading also depends on luck and if you failed, it doesn't mean you failed, you just found that your strategy doesn't work and it's better to move on new one and think differently.

[Jating]

Obviously something is wrong with your personal indicators so I would suggest you better try a different method. I wouldn't say that you are not lucky, everyone here started their bitcoin trading journey losing money. But then they adjust plus the experienced they gain make them a better trader.

If I'm in your shoes so better hardened your TA, someone already pointed out a good thread to start with, so I advise you to go back and read that thread and equip yourself with knowledge. So best of luck to you.

[1Referee]

Fakeouts sometimes through what seems like strong support are also somewhat common with Bitcoin, even when it seems like volume's accompanying a strong break through a level.

I always wait for one or a series of candles to close before I take on a trade during low volume breakouts. It yields less percentage gains, but at least you reduce the odds of being suckered into a trade you will very likely regret.

The good thing about this market being so active is that you will always have another opportunity to take on a trade at some other levels, as so, you do not have to force yourself to take on trades every single time. I see it happen all too often that people just take on trades for the sake of trading, but that's a quick route to empty your balance. A good trader knows when to skip a trade.

[nydiacaskey01]

It looks like its not about luck, its about patience and you have to educate yourself in reading charts and graphs. You cant rely only on volume. RSi will tell you if the coin is overbought or oversold, expect changes if either of that reaches its limit. Learn to use Bollinger Bands, it will help you decide if the trend will continue. And patience, learn to have a lot of patience, if price drops and its not what you expect, just hold and dont panic.

[BigBoy89]

Well, not all people could be successful traders. I'm the live example

You could try, try harder. Reading more, playing with demo accounts, etc - to boost your confidence and error rates. My favorite book is old, but gold - Trading for a Living (Alexander Elder). Then, if it still not working for you, starts looking for other options like investing and lending.

[Mia44]

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?

No one can fully predict the price behavior of any asset. I think that instead of focusing on predicting the price of bitcoin (something you can't do exactly) focus on building your own trading method.

[maxreish]

Have you tried using other indicators like RSI, Stochaistic RSI, Bollinger Bands other than volumes? Seems that you are misreading your indicator. If you are not sure when to buy or to sell your btc, you can confirm it to the other indicators like I have mentioned above.

On the other hand, I can see you are not that confident to yourself because you always had a bad entry and exit point. Determined your bad entries, it is not necessary to just rely on your own guts or your own prediction. That is why we need technical analysis for basis and to spot where we gonna sell or buy at the right time.

[alisonwonder]

Am I doing something completly wrong? Or it is not possible to predict the movement of btc?

No one can fully predict the price behavior of any asset. I think that instead of focusing on predicting the price of bitcoin (something you can't do exactly) focus on building your own trading method.

that's what happens to me, I'm always wrong when buying and selling, when I buy the prices is dump, but when I sell the prices is pump, this makes me a little weird. what a building trading method?

[KnightElite]

For me I do not consider luck in trading. I'm using technical analysis for me to forecast the price. You keep losing your money in trading because you are just basing your decision in pure luck. You need to learn the 3 analysis which is fundamentals, technicals and also sentiment analysis.

[topbitcoin]

Maybe not too confident with what we speculate make you more careful when pick an action. Especially if you said you only use Volume as indicator. Actually i see only from what i learn, not too hury to sell your bitcoin if you see bear trap. I mean in bear market, it is better to take a rest and start do trading when you see bull run come.

[crossabdd]

trading is not only about trading volume. there are other indicators, such as patterns, EMA, RSI, etc. about reading charts. and also fundamental analysis (looking for information and news about bitcoin. Some time ago I made a chart pattern for my friend who asked, when prices fell at $ 6700 then went up to $ 7100, after that I sent pictures and told me that the increase would reach $ 7500. And today this is proven by a pattern that I drew, so do an analysis at least about a pattern.