MasterLuc new long term prediction

[Baofeng]

For those who have been in this game and an old timer, I'm sure you know who MasterLuc is.

And those for those newbie, I would say he is one of the most respected and legend in the bitcoin community as he been predicting bitcoin price movement as close to accurate as possible.

Old thread: Yet another analyst
New thread: Analysis

New long term prediction as I see it now

This post is my updated vision to Bitcoin future price dynamics in context of broken all time log trend (blue in picture).
So the Bitcoin lost its huge momentum to stay in this trend - this was going to happen sooner or later.
As the technology being adopted - it loosing its blowing popularity and leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend (green in picture) more smoothly. I had difficulties to draw this green trend using regular tools, so it is not really accurate.
So this is the basic idea behind this post, and i thought about it for years and now here it is.
I think Bitcoin price will follow next steps in future:
1. Finding a local bottom. Should be at 1300-3000 range. Should not break previous lower low at $159 (lol). But i think it should be 4-digits. Nearest weeks.
2. As it dropped fast - as it should bounce fast to retest lost $6000 level and log trend at around 10000-20000. 2019-2020 AD.
3. Then it should fall back to ~6000 support. This should happen up to 2020 AD.
4. Go to new highs. Beyond 2020 year.

Bitcoin technology will eventually find its place in human society after 2020 AD. And its price will become relatively stable in any mid term and slowly climbing in long term.

This is the stairway from current bear hell as I see it.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

[Upgrade00]

Bitcoin surpassing the current all time high would lead to a huge influx of new investors and lost of FOMO which would bubble up the price even more, so I think stability would come a while after this. The price would need to correct and balance, supply and demand as well as mining.

Should we buy back now ?

If you're shorting and sold at a much higher price, it's a good time to buy back and has been so for a while. Best to buy intermittently as the price rises and falls to try and get the most suitable support levels.

[adaseb]

His old analysis from what I recall reading about a year ago was slightly different. He was using the BLX index and hoping for the 200WMA to hold, and surprisngly it did bounce exactly from that area. According to the Tradingview post, it never hit the $3000 area even, not even on the futures which had a large discount.

I think right now that 200WMA is slightly higher since it takes into account the faster growing pace of 2017, so we are currently at $4925 or so. However every week this moving average usually increases by $30-$40 or so. Hence somewhere in the $5500 area in a few months so the $5500-$6000 area would be the perfect area to long.

However if we get there too quickly and sometime this year or next month then the WMA is slower and we might head into the high $4k's eventually.

[pooya87]

And those for those newbie, I would say he is one of the most respected and legend in the bitcoin community as he been predicting bitcoin price movement as close to accurate as possible.

actually he is mostly all over the place!
half the times he makes good speculations about the market with nice analysis and they happen to be close predictions and the other half he makes weird ass speculation that don't make any sense and obviously they are way off the mark that you'd think the person making that speculation has no idea how the bitcoin market works!

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

this link actually proved to be one of the wrong predictions by him!
he jumped to conclusion too fast and was caught in the panic sell of the time this was released (meaning in 2018 when price fell down suddenly to below $4k). he was predicting more fall down to $1300 which obviously never happened!

[Wexnident]

Kinda following the same idea as prediction of his right now. Just watching from the events of up till now, he's been right, and well, most of us have already thought of BTC reaching new highs in 2020.

Bitcoin surpassing the current all time high would lead to a huge influx of new investors and lost of FOMO which would bubble up the price even more, so I think stability would come a while after this. The price would need to correct and balance, supply and demand as well as mining.

Well yes, every bubble needs a time where it stabilizes after it goes down into its depression phase. The peak of the bubble would naturally be the best time to sell any coins you have. Just look at the past halving of 2016 that had a huge bubble that resulted into the 20k ATH by 2017. The price dropped immediately after that and wasn't until close to 2019 did it start coming back up.

[piebeyb]

I just know him, I see the analysis now it looks cool, but again this long-term analysis is like seeing history that repeats every 4 years, but I think it always happens every 4 years so it's not too strange

Should we buy back now ?

If you buy for the long term, I don't think there is a problem buying it now, because this thread deals with the long term

[mindrust]

This is not new. It has been around for almost a year. He has been right so far and I am also amazed by it but Rememher the 4chan anime girl... She was right too... till she isn't.

This prediction may or may not happen. Just don't blindly trust only one TA.

Regardless of what masterluc says, My own Analysis also says the price is pretty cheap right now. Yep you should buy.

[Vectra]

Masterluc is a freak. It's scary how accurate he is in trading.

[Furious 7]

Should we buy back now ?

I say YES buying bitcoin now does not need to worry about going down again this market looks green again in the next few days, buying long-term Bitcoin will obviously be better because a lot of speculation will reach $ 8000- $ 9000 I believe that talk but we have to wait.

[jostorres]

-snip

Bitcoin technology will eventually find its place in human society after 2020 AD. And its price will become relatively stable in any mid term and slowly climbing in long term.

This sounds a "real" speculation in my opinion. Without being a part of our day to day life, we cannot expect bitcoin to value in millions. I agree that after the third halving bitcoin may create lots of demands against overwhelming adopters which may push bitcoin into main stream adoption. Once bitcoin will be part of society like the corner shops take bitcoins for water bottle, we can see stable in short term and up surging in long term like how exactly gold is doing for decades.

At the same time, we cannot ignore how the higher values push adoptions among new people. Higher prices are always a news and then media take bitcoins to new adopters. But without having enough demand, we cannot expect stable prices. Here, bitcoin is doing the reciprocal approach; instead of waiting for the demand to peak, its halving will cut the supply. After/around the upcoming halving, demands may not peak but due to reduced supply we can expect stable to climbing prices. Yes, bitcoin is designed to have values in millions .

[suzanne5223]

Should we buy back now ?

I will buy back now if i were you because 95% of prediction dont usually come pass but if we check the early months of the previous bitcoin halving year, the market usually experience more dump than pump in price and this situation may also change next year cause the bitcoin left mine are not like before.

[Wind_FURY]

Should we buy back now ?

Buy more! Bitcoin always bounce back every time it dumps and yes there are good prediction in long term and the turn around as well. MasterLuc is old and good, serve this as your guide for the future prices we will surely rise from big fall on this bear. Though i still doubt about the stability of bitcoin price since next year is the halving and the price may become more volatile.

I would give the same advice, but based on Master Luc's long term prediction? Save your money, and wait for the big dip in my opinion. It's a pleb opportunity.

OR use a better plan. Use dollar cost averaging, and keep buying the dip.

[BitHodler]

OR use a better plan. Use dollar cost averaging, and keep buying the dip.

If people keep buying the dip they keep losing out during a market cycle where the price continues to trend down. You have to set yourself some targets and buy the dips there instead of buying every dip blindly hoping it will be the last one.

We will have many more dips and most dips moving forward will turn out to not be the right one to buy into. If you buy each dip you are not utilizing your money wisely, which is why I recommend people to have a plan or buying schedule

[exstasie]

Not new. Just an amazing and well-timed prediction from December 2018.

His most recent analysis is actually speculating on a fall to the 200-week MA in a long term triangle. I prefer his December prediction.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg53048197#msg53048197
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg53177159#msg53177159

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

this link actually proved to be one of the wrong predictions by him!
he jumped to conclusion too fast and was caught in the panic sell of the time this was released (meaning in 2018 when price fell down suddenly to below $4k). he was predicting more fall down to $1300 which obviously never happened!

No, he said the $1,300-$3,000 range. So he was off by a ~$120.

Then he predicted the rally to $14K and the subsequent decline to $6K pretty much like clockwork. If you're complaining about that prediction, your expectations are too high.

[fabiorem]

New ATH only in 2021.

[sikke]

1. Finding a local bottom. Should be at 1300-3000 range. Should not break previous lower low at $159 (lol). But i think it should be 4-digits. Nearest weeks.

I find this scenario unlikely, even though BTC short term can definitely go back down to the $3k level.

The point here is that the last major bear market lasting between early to mid 2018 to early 2019 only took BTC to $3k or so, and the support there was extremely strong, demonstrated by the sizable rebound that was recorded to over $10k after that.

I doubt that the markets will be this bearish, especially with halving coming up in 2020, to the point that these supports can be broken.

[batang_bitcoin]

Yeah accurate as it was and we're going near to the end of this year. Due to halving and the famous call for 'institutional money' might be the reason for the good movement of next years.

This is not new. It has been around for almost a year. He has been right so far and I am also amazed by it but Rememher the 4chan anime girl... She was right too... till she isn't.

You're right, I remember that popular prediction of that anime photo and waited for it to reach that price with the given date but has failed.

[ecnalubma]

Unlike other predictions he's predictions make sense, but its still predictions so we can't rely on it a 100%. A lot of things will happen in longterm if we play our cards nicely with good decisions and perfect timing then we might achieve better in the future because every now and then there are good opportunities.

[piebeyb]

New ATH only in 2021.

This is a correct statement and I bet with my analysis that year, where many people said that in 2020 I only focused on 2021, but in 2 years everything really recovered to reach a new ATH for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but not guarantee on new cryptocurrencies that need time to develop, just say everything will really recover in 2020 and get a new ATH in 2021 

[NeuroticFish]

2. As it dropped fast - as it should bounce fast to retest lost $6000 level and log trend at around 10000-20000. 2019-2020 AD.

The price doesn't seem to be eager to get back into the 10k-20k range. Especially the 20k looks now kinda untouchable, for 2019 at least.
Let's stay optimistic for 2020, with the halving. But then the less-than-a-year time span may not be enough for a drop back to 6k levels. Maybe 10k?