Yet another analyst :)

[lucif]

Okay. Some deep analysis on different timeframes.

Im not a native english speaker, so I may write a bit with Russian emphasis.

Short term. Price had stuck between hourly sma100/200



Hourly sma200 had supported current rally off 1100, bears tried to break it several times. And now, new round.



In daily graph sma10 acts similar. When candle close below sma - last is considered broken. If bears break daily sma10/hourly sma200, those MA will turn into strong resistance (as they were strong support). So to break those curves back to the upside will be a hard quest.



So if bears break d/sma10 the next target is d/sma20.

As you can see from last graph, there is no barrier down to 1200 when d/sma20 will be broken.

Summary: When bears start massive attack on 1300 (where h/sma200 d/sma10 tanks), success breakdown of this level will mean the trend reversal. New trend Target is 1200.

There is a strong support located @1160-1220 (d/w sma/bollinger, fibo levels). So i consider this level to be a bounce to continue trace out huge weekly figure (in next post).

[lucif]

Some words about weekly figure.

I noticed that strong price actions on big timeframes forming big figures. Many people here says that drop from 1540 formed a triangle which was "broken to the upside". They refering to this figure:



I dont agree with this figure was a triangle. Not this triangle as the volume continues to decrease. Huge figure requires huge breakout with huge volume.

So I consider we are still tracing another figure. What?
My bet: huge bearish pennant with textbook target around $5

Here is my primary count:



As you can notice, there are strong bearish diveregences in MACD and RSI forming. Its supports this count along with decreasing volume.

[proudhon]

Awesome.  I hope you're right.

[lucif]

Another explanation of current price stuck. 1300 level is defended by middle d/BB line

[lucif]

Short term trend lines analysis.

Battle for trend line log and conclusions.

Here are two trends: T1 off 970, slowly moving to T2 off 1100.

T1 resistance breakout marked as 1. Breakout was with healthy volume. Resistace line of T1 became new support line and this was confirmed by volume.

Bears started to fight with new support line of T1 on 2,3,4. During this they also tested new support line of T2, but without kinda luck.

Finally, new support lines of old T1 and new T2 were broken down on 5. They were strong support, tanked bears several times. So now they became strong resistance.

Now, bulls trying to repeat the same with their lost support.

Because lines were strong, they stay strong - as they were defeated with heavy firefight. So I consider their breakout in near future is posiible only on fantastic volume, which is not really possible. The more possible scenario is fight for resistance of old trend @1280

Short term trend target: 1280

[lucif]

Fibbo levels.

From expanations above I consider we had a local top of previous higher high @1392

Expirence shows that such big rallies retraces at least to 38.2% fibbo. The lack of bullish volume during rally and strong bear attacks makes +to this retracement may go more deep.

I bet on target of futher retracement in 1131-1231 area.

[Luno]

Waiting for lower prices is a serious gamble now. Prices are forcefully held low. You cannot figure out the Whales intent based on technical indicators. Be vary of what is suggested in this thread.

[lucif]

Whales do not walk against complex TI marks. Pigs do.

[Luno]

Well I'm a hedgehog, the kind of pig that doesn't get hurt by the unexpected. We will  all know something Monday before lunch.

[lucif]

I dont want to offend. It just a trader saying. Man who enters market with emotions, without any strong support of technicial fundamentals marks - he is just fresh meat for big players owning complex situation on market.

[lucif]

Many people here entering market with support only emotions and/or good/bad news. This is strategy of fail and somewhat kinda playing in ponzi.

I say more. Bad/good news with strong impact on market are predicted by complex TI marks. You dont know what news will be and TI says they will before strong bold price move. And they appear like by magick wand swing when their time is come.

So TA stays before any news events and emotions.

I hope my will stay before.

[Luno]

I dont want to offend. It just a trader saying. Man who enters market with emotions, without any strong support of technicial fundamentals marks - he is just fresh meat for big players owning complex situation on market.

You are completely right. and i learned that the only sad way there is to learn it.

Not to fill up your tread with my babble, but i'm not sure that technical indicators would work if people didn't know about them. I trade once a month and I am never more than 2/3 short or long.

Real life  indicators like press articles and google trends are quite reliable. As you can guess I don't make a lot in a bullish market But i'm always set for the unexpected.

The rise on the 7'th from 12.50 to 13.50 did you see that coming? I didn't but i've got a 1/3 of it anyway.

[lucif]

This is good

[michaelmclees]

I dont want to offend. It just a trader saying. Man who enters market with emotions, without any strong support of technicial fundamentals marks - he is just fresh meat for big players owning complex situation on market.

And the difference between technical analysis and crystal ball gazing is?  You might be able to do TA without much emotion, but if history is any guide, you'll also be doing it with no more accuracy than a flipping coin.

[lucif]

I just post picz here with explanations ) I dont want to comment offtop. Am i right or not - time will say.

I dont accept sayings "My ass says this is not good time for short". If you have something to say - attach TA pics here.

[lucif]

I do beleive this was a top because of this divergences (blue lines) and oscilators already broke uptrends while price didn't (green lines).



To cancel the reversal bulls need a good volume. Greater that bears put during trend line tests. 50-100k spikes will cancel this reversal in near estimation.

[myself]

so_proud.jpg

[smoothie]

Nice TA. So does this mean we all cancel our subscriptions to all who offer one here on this board? lol 

[lucif]

I do this for free as long as i have time for this. Also this is to remind to some analysts to stop to be blind and emotional and stop ignoring indicators.

[lebing]

While I appreciate another point of view, its important to balance traditional indicators (which in an immature market as significantly less reliable) with the impact of other metrics like news, adoption, etc. The latter at this point I would argue is more important than any technicals for bitcoin.