Can one have any expertise in Speculating?

[bitvalak]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Speculation is just an attempt to make people believe what they say, and then can benefit themselves. 
Like speculators, traders will always make speculations so that they can get positions to sell or buy what they expect.  But speculators are usually people who have a lot of fans.

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[Harlot]

There is no such thing as a "better" speculator as what you are still doing is speculating, you are just simply reading rumor after rumor without backing it up with anything which doesn't make your bet highly likely to happen. If you want a more sensible approach to speculating I think the best thing to do is to do your own analysis not only by doing a background research of the rumor but also reading about the charts through technical analysis and see if it is backing it up as well. Merely speculating won't lead you to anything.

[gantez]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Speculation sometimes is based on analysed indices which are deduced either from the past to make a future guess. Some people are gifted with that no doubt. So base on such gift, they could always or most times be right in giving out speculated outcomes.

[suzanne5223]

It is very possible. A lot of good cryptocurrency speculators are good at it because they have come to master it and be good in it. But they can give exact theory or price, instead they will be closer to it.
If you are asking if one can take a course on it and have it as a certificate, then I can say it's somewhat not necessary. Nobody cares about the certificate you have in it but how true you are to your speculation.

No, he's not talking about having a certificate in speculation but he want to be an expert in market speculation and he thought can make it happen through reading of the speculating topics on this forum which is wrong cause he actually can learn it through some YouTube video and research.

[posi]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Firstly, you need to understand that market speculation are not always right and if you totally have the passion to become a speculator there's chance that you could be better than others but i don't think that should be your goal cause may somehow affect your speculating knowledge. However, reading speculating topics will somehow improve your knowledge but not to the peak cause you still need to do some depth research in other to have unique understanding.

[buwaytress]

That's actually the entire premise of all these prediction-based AI/big data blockchain projects launching since 2017. Just believing that crowd wisdom eventually prevails in speculating, no TA to reverify findings, just picking the ones that have the highest accuracy. In fact, a new tool built by eToro if I recall just a month or two ago? It trawls through the entire Twitter space, just going through every possible speculation and then derives signals for people to trade on.

Crowd intelligence? I don't believe it works actually, or it does until it doesn't.

I'm a big believer in sentiment analysis, but I'm really skeptical of these automated tools. The eToro project is basically just an analysis of 80 keywords, which alone sounds way too primitive to accurately capture market sentiment.

Thanks for all that info! I actually also, if forced to choose, would probably choose sentiment over anything else, although I rather feel it is a lot more intangible than any system can currently attempt to quantify (for example, all those fear and greed indices). I think almost every boom we've seen at least in Bitcoin is explained less by TA than by sentiment.

BUT what you shared only proves what I suspected. It's hard to derive sentiment from spammers, gamblers and people with vested interest (shillers, devs, paid influencers, etc.). Filter all the motivated noise and there's not much to work on. And perhaps it shouldn't filter those out since they have equal impact on retails users no?

[danherbias07]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Whoa! I didn't know someone would ask something like this.

Well, you could be better in it because of reading too much of what people are trying to speculate.
You could jot down how many are doing just the same or how many are going against the flow.
In my case, I go against the flow. I see speculators that are in the same wave and I dont really want to ride it.
It is more risky though considering you don't have much at your side but somehow I think I did quite well.

[gabmen]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Lol. Probably an experienced speculator, yes. But expertise? I don't think so. Speculations don't really have any solid, objective basis. It's based on someone's hunch over the possibilities. If you've been speculating for a long time, you're guesses would probably be more reliable than others but of course, they'll only be by your own standards.

[ecnalubma]

is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

If someone is pro in speculating then probably he had accumulated bunch of experiences speculating. Though we have different impressions and ways on how we interpret the markets so any method we use is acceptable as long as its what you feel or foresee.

[Free1bitco.in]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

well, speculation is sometimes made based on data that already existed before, so it could be right, and it could be wrong. if there is someone who is really accurate in speculating, that person is most likely already to be a rich person. Well, maybe there are people like that, but I think they will only create a special group and not spread the information they have.
but, what I think is that no one has speculated very accurately in every speculation he made. there will definitely be mistakes he made in speculating.

[exstasie]

I'm a big believer in sentiment analysis, but I'm really skeptical of these automated tools. The eToro project is basically just an analysis of 80 keywords, which alone sounds way too primitive to accurately capture market sentiment.

Thanks for all that info! I actually also, if forced to choose, would probably choose sentiment over anything else, although I rather feel it is a lot more intangible than any system can currently attempt to quantify (for example, all those fear and greed indices). I think almost every boom we've seen at least in Bitcoin is explained less by TA than by sentiment.

BUT what you shared only proves what I suspected. It's hard to derive sentiment from spammers, gamblers and people with vested interest (shillers, devs, paid influencers, etc.). Filter all the motivated noise and there's not much to work on. And perhaps it shouldn't filter those out since they have equal impact on retails users no?

It's hard to know. Social media shills and manipulators seem totally laughable to me, but to a newbie? They probably have a non-zero impact.

At the same time, quantifying that sort of thing from a sentiment point of view is difficult. After all, an altcoin shill (or really anyone hyping up their bags) generally represents supply: they are trying to unload their bags on other investors. They act bullish but really they want to sell. Is that bullish, bearish, or neither?

I think it's all just way too complex to analyze with such simple logic. The problem with algorithmic approaches is they aren't good at distinguishing among truths, half-truths, outright deceptions, being clouded by biases, etc.

In my experience, there is no replacement for looking at how traders are positioning themselves. Commitment of trader data (shorts vs. longs) is one thing to consider. Another thing to consider is what analysts are predicting. When everyone is piled on one side of the market, it's usually informative. When sentiment and TA align on higher time frames, we get very powerful moves.

[karanggatak]

in my opinion a great speculator is a speculator who was born from a lot of experience that has passed. and I think a good speculator is a speculator who wants to examine market conditions and price movements before making a decision. if only relying on speculation without research then I think it will fail. because we do not know what the latest coin movements and market conditions are.

[wxa7115]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Speculating is just like any other skill, the more you do it the better you will get at it, but in order to get better at it you will need to keep records about why you made a particular prediction and how you came to those conclusions, then you will need to keep records on what the results were and what were your thoughts about it, if you keep doing this for long enough you are bound to get better at predicting the market.

But let's be direct how many people do you think actually do that? Most of those that throw speculations about the price do not do any kind of technical analysis, they are just giving their opinion and if that's all what you do then it is impossible for you to improve your ability to speculate.

[alexsandria]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Well, yes in that case. Sounds weird but it could possibly be. Why weird? Is that because, often everyone are speculating because they have some coins holding on and they want to greatly affect with others with their ideology. Though someone could speculate out of nothing in return. It may be fun with them? But not everyone could handle the same situation.

[bittraffic]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating. With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

Maybe. They said it follows the golden rule in fibonacci which it outlines the possible support and resistance. Once you identify which are the possible resistance, its can always become a support as well after the break out. The support and resistance are always going to be where you speculations are and that's where they try to trade with the help of the indicators which can become very technical. If you become an expert to speculating then you will also be good at trading so why just speculating alone.

[1Referee]

But let's be direct how many people do you think actually do that? Most of those that throw speculations about the price do not do any kind of technical analysis, they are just giving their opinion and if that's all what you do then it is impossible for you to improve your ability to speculate.

It's an opinion based on gut feelings. We all have these feelings, but when you follow the actual technicals, you'll be right more often than you are wrong.

The problem with people's feelings is that they are mostly based on a bias to see the price go up because they hold a lot of Bitcoin or some other shitcoins. I'm pretty sure that even if these people do understand how technical analysis works, and thus acknowledge the bearish posture of the market, they will probably still be hoping for the price to go up any time soon.

It also doesn't help that there are youtubers constantly posting hype'ish bullish fundamentals content while the price keeps going down. Just be honest about the market and don't let people unnecessarily suffer. Those pumping and dumping the market don't care about fundamentals, they are here just for a quick buck.

[crossabdd]

yeah, that's very different. speculators don't make much time for analysis and so on. they only pay attention to profits. when the price of coins is higher than the purchase price. then he will sell it. why is it better? because it does not require a lot of time for analysis, which might make a loss. they trade only on the basis of belief. there is no more analysis, except only opinion in a short time.

[barabarian1]

if there are people who can speculate correctly and precisely without seeing technical data then maybe it is a gift that God has given him. but if we are not experts in speculation then we should always observe and look at technical data in earnest and then speculate. if our speculation is not in accordance with reality, then we must be patient to accept it. and make it as a lesson. so that in the future we can speculate correctly.

[BitHodler]

if there are people who can speculate correctly and precisely without seeing technical data then maybe it is a gift that God has given him.

It's called luck. One can be right like 10 times in a row and it's still luck, but in the long run, these people will lose most (if not all) of what they put in. There is no shortage of people 'trading' like that.

It kinda works the same with gambling. I have seen people brag about their profitable dice method, but it only works until it no longer does, and by the time you agree that it no longer works you have wiped out your balance.

[Dart18]

Some brief thoughts on this subject:

I noticed that speculators often do a lot of speculating.

What else would they do?

With that said, is it possible to focus on speculating only, reading nothing else but all the speculating topics and then somehow becoming better at speculating than others?

You can call it experience or being in the frontlines for so many times.
That means they have the most seen story than others or they might have done it more.
Yeah, you could get better in it.
Somehow, you will find yourself getting the right speculation than others which are just new to the discussions.
Although, there is really no training about it.