Question for the Speculators... (experiment)

[xZork]

In order to become a trader, people need to continuously learn to improve their knowledge, besides a trader also needs many qualities such as confidence, emotional mastery and many other things. This forum is a great place to learn about bitcoin as well as the cryptocurrency market, but that is not enough to turn a new person into a trader.
If you give the money to a new trader and ask him to start trading, I think 90% he will lose all that money.

[Apes]

If you give capital to a noob to do routine trading and read the market relying only on the Speculation thread. I'm sure it only burns money. Because Rarely pro traders who give there speculation here. I am not saying that all the speculations written here are useless, only it would be better if it did not rely on treads here and used many sources to predict future market prices to be more accurate.

[CryptoBry]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth? But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone. What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

I would speculate that our new trader will be losing the money big time. What I know is that successful traders are using all the available tools and strategies at his/her disposal, and they are not limited to only one tool that they can use anytime. There has never been any history or any claim that anyone here in this forum made a lot of money in trading just reading here and nothing else. That can be a very risky proposition but it would be exciting to see it happen, that is if there will be someone willing to shoulder the required amount of Bitcoin as capital. I doubt anybody would agree here to carry the cost. But thanks for suggesting you are adding more colors to the forum.

[ecnalubma]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

You did not mention if he’s going to day trade or hodl long term. If he day trade his chances to win would be very slim however if he hold it for long term, he has higher chance of making gains even if he bought Bitcoin at higher price.

[Silberman]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

That will be a great experiment but unfortunately I think that such person is going to lose everything in a matter of months but that is way better than the results that he will get if he based his decisions on the altcoins speculation forum in which case I think he will lose all his money in a week, trading requires a very precise set of skills, knowledge and experience in order to have any chance of being profitable and if you do not have that eventually you are going to lose.

[STT]

made a lot of money in trading just reading here and nothing else

Its not impossible, a person can just get lucky like any gamble out there.    People do stumble across low prices, go long and keep that position and do well.   Most would sell too early or some other mistake but no doubt some have done well over the years and managed to keep it.   But on average the deciding factor for successful trading would come down to available capital, reasonable management of that and time taken to properly observe and time participation.
   Others will argue in favour of leverage but the problem is that counts both for and against you, so you increase the knife edge of that time or price range you must be correct and its extremely hard to win on leverage unless already a champion trader.   I would say its basically about risked capital and people who trade are willing to pay the price so are committed to the pursuit not just hoping to pay very little and get a big pay off because thats so unlikely for most of us still which much to learn.
  I hate to say it but the easiest thing to do is identify when the market could be depressed and now is one of those times, dont use leverage and just go long.  Thats it, your trade is simple and open.   If you dont dive into the white waters of hyper markets then its possible to gain a better value from the depressed price.    I'm personally thinking the base price for BTC is over these few months but it might take the entire duration of 2020 to work out, a few too many are OTT on halvening so a lull after that event would relate for me to my prior experience and so expectations.

[darkangel11]

Most people will tell you that he'd lose money because that's the statistic. If you are able to make money on any market you're in the 20% of winners. If you're able to come out unscathed without losing money just going out with no profit or a very small loss you're in another 30%. The other 50% loses a lot and exits bitter.

If you had only the forum to read you'd probably make money, provided that you wouldn't panic. Most people here are bulls so you'd probably take a long from here.

[blckhawk]

I'd say that neither. We can't really predict since the his win or loss totally relies on pure chance or luck. And also depends on the timeframe. If he would go long-term, then chances are higher that he would gain due to the halving, but it's always not guaranteed. If he did go short-term, then there's higher chance he would lose more than he could earn.

[gabmen]

Even if they're allowed to learn charts and basic TAs, a new trader won't really put that to good use since it'll take time and experience to be able to put that to practice efficiently. He'll likely learn basics and terminologies here but in order to be familiar with that he's reading and learning, he needs to put that to practice by making actual trades.

[adaseb]

Most people will tell you that he'd lose money because that's the statistic. If you are able to make money on any market you're in the 20% of winners. If you're able to come out unscathed without losing money just going out with no profit or a very small loss you're in another 30%. The other 50% loses a lot and exits bitter.

If you had only the forum to read you'd probably make money, provided that you wouldn't panic. Most people here are bulls so you'd probably take a long from here.

Where did you get these statistics? I don't know what the statistics are for Crypto but I am assuming its like most other financial markets out there like Forex or Stock trading.

Basically when it comes to retail traders, something like 95% lose money and something like less than 1% are able to day trade and call it a living. The other smaller 5% or so most likely are either retired or they got a day job and just do it on the side. But the sad fact is that 95% of them lose money and not just break-even.

Its zero-sum and you need someone to lose money for you to make money. Look at the Bitmex or Bitfinex leadership boards there, you will basically see 1 or 2 whales and 100-200 smaller retail people who are at a loss while the whales are at a huge gain. This is no different than banks or institutions making money while the average investor struggles.

[Spaffin]

Most people will tell you that he'd lose money because that's the statistic. If you are able to make money on any market you're in the 20% of winners. If you're able to come out unscathed without losing money just going out with no profit or a very small loss you're in another 30%. The other 50% loses a lot and exits bitter.

If you had only the forum to read you'd probably make money, provided that you wouldn't panic. Most people here are bulls so you'd probably take a long from here.

If we take into account the fact that the number of forum users has grown very much since 2015, then there is a really real explanation for this, that the cryptocurrency advertisement really worked and people came to the forum without any knowledge at all, but had confidence  that cryptocurrency will make it possible to earn a lot of money.  Thus, thanks to the information on the bitcointalk forum, many users became investors and traders, while acting only in a narrow direction and not developing comprehensively.  Anyone who wants to improve their results will develop comprehensively and study various information from other sources, and not just focus on the forum.  Although I agree with other users who claim that the bitcointalk forum has a fairly rich database of information not only for novice cryptocurrency users, but also for those who are trying to replenish their knowledge.

[1Referee]

Basically when it comes to retail traders, something like 95% lose money and something like less than 1% are able to day trade and call it a living. The other smaller 5% or so most likely are either retired or they got a day job and just do it on the side. But the sad fact is that 95% of them lose money and not just break-even.

People don't know what kind of trap day trading really is. If you stick to buy low sell high, where you don't mind waiting a few weeks or even a few months to sell higher, the percentage of people losing isn't +90% but much and much lower.

I have been into day trading myself and it's horrible not only from an ROI perspective, but also from a time perspective because staring at charts all day is such a waste of time. I barely came out of the house, only to do some grocery shopping. I wasted so much time on something so unproductive that I decided to call it a day and never day traded again.

I only take on positions when I see an opportunity (mostly based on pattern formations) and if there is nothing that interests me, I just don't do anything. I thus far made profit on most of the positions I took on. You enjoy life better if you don't day trade and thus not lose money.

[stadus]

They'll never last with that 0.01 as their capital in trading if they only based on speculation in this thread or this forum only.
Every trader needs to have their own analysis as well as that would gear them to survive in this long term journey if they are looking for real success.

Relying on speculation alone is like gambling based on luck, it's not trading anymore.

[alexsandria]

Well it would all depend on a stuff they are reading about. If they got to be able find a decent speculation which may be close to reality, it may result to may be big win or fair win. Otherwise would be a big lose, well, it is somehow obvious at some point because it is quite tough to go trading without any background, and you'll be doing right away in the hands of what have you read in speculation section.

[daarul50]

the outcome will of course busted it all in the end .

in the short term they could gained some profits , it won't last for long. you know why? even those people with a lot of experiences and high skills trader have a very low percentage to ended up with profit, the research say it all , mostly they claimed that less than 10% a trader can success making profit in the long run.

that is the fact , if you insist to do so , please do it and tell us the result, we won't be surprised with the outcome 

[Mahanton]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

No one knows but most of the time if he do follow those calls most of the time then for most chances he would really have those losing trades
yet anytime we do see these calls are usually shilling out stuffs which indicates on sell or accumulation.As mentioned that he doesnt have any knowledge
about TA and FA then it would be hard on just following any speculations yet you cant even justify if those are deserving to be followed.

[El duderino_]

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA.  They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum.  So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be?  Big lose?  or Big win?

Millions and millions if the person in question would just HODL 

[BitHodler]

even those people with a lot of experiences and high skills trader have a very low percentage to ended up with profit, the research say it all , mostly they claimed that less than 10% a trader can success making profit in the long run.

I think the problem with those people is that they try to make profit quick. No matter how long you have been trying to get trading to work for you, there simply isn't a way for you to make more profit than you have lost.

Most people make things worse for themselves by raising the stakes in an attempt to gain back what they have lost, but gamblers have been the prefect example in terms of exposing how dangerous revenge gambling really is.

People can't even get things working for themselves in the stock market they claim is very predictable. How on earth will they be able to have any success within crypto, a market that's truly unpredictable.

[Theb]

Kiss that .01 BTC good bye since trading cryptocurrencies isn't really about following what others have been saying since you are just basically following them blindly without knowing if their analysis is accurate. Other than that traders need to be emotionally tough, supposed that what they have read is very accurate yet the trader isn't emotionally prepared for that trade he would be losing money because he/she can't stick to the trading plan. And have you seen the analysis here lately? Only a few members post proper analysis and others are only pure speculation or just FUD or FOMO without any kind of analysis whatsoever.

[beerlover]

They would lose sooooo much money, you think that giving them 200 dollars to start they would be able to only lose 200 dollars and not more. I tell you if somehow they could find or learn a way to wager more than 200 dollars with their 200 dollars they will make a debt on money they don't have. Hell those dudes would spend from their credit cards and take out loans and find a way. They will keep losing and losing until they literally have absolutely no possession in their name.

This place is horrible for trading, speculation is literally a place where speculations are made by people with absolutely no filter at all, there is no requirements for you to be able to write here or even start a topic here. Most of the time you can see contradict topics back to back like "is btc going to 3k" and "is btc going to 50k" type of deals. This is the absolute last place to take a look at for this.