Sportsbet.io Betting discussion thread rev

[tyKiwanuka]

Really curios what would be the odds for 7:2 on this game.

According to Oddsportal you could get 351 at Betvictor, which is super low for such a once in lifetime result imo. On Betfair (exchange) you could surely get 1000, i.e. the highest odds possible, in this extra CS market. But even this is low then; don't know if there is any odds that I would have played for this game to end 7-2

[buwaytress]

Told you all, I am always one correct pick away from the money Have no clue actually if that is the case this time since I never know when the leader-board is last updated. Sportsbet could be doing that a bit more transparently.

I needed Liverpool to win to cash on a 10 leg multi so not too happy with them tonight. Really curios what would be the odds for 7:2 on this game. But it was ok day for me since my two main bets, Wolves and Southampton, came trough. If Leicester won or LFC  won or Lazio managed to score their goal in first half I would be much better off.

I didn't see the leaderboard either because the when I last checked after the Napoli game, it was offline. But it was 9 right picks I guess, right? Agree, SB should probably publish winners every round because yeah, I'd still liked to have seen who it was and how many picks etc. Anyone know how Napoli game was graded in MM?

I actually still made money this week, but if Liverpool had won I'd have made a lot more since I parlayed them with almost every winning pick I did (Spurs, Wolves, Leeds handicap).

@Ty 351 is super low, given that Liverpool last lost that much in 1963, about 50 games a season means 2850 games in between, yeah, very bad odds.

[morvillz7z]

Agree, SB should probably publish winners every round because yeah, I'd still liked to have seen who it was and how many picks etc. Anyone know how Napoli game was graded in MM?

The leaderboard was updated like always, we had 5 winners with 9 correct picks, and the Juventus/Napoli game was marked as a loss (or not counted) for everyone.

I see that the new one is up already, strange mix of South America WC qualification matches, MLS, Nation League and some games from Brazil, but that's all we have this weekend, so can't really complain.

[buwaytress]

Guess I'm the first one in for once;)

Tempted to pick a draw or two at least, because some of these Nations League games/CONMEBOL especially I suspect some coaches will be playing for fun and then everyone's just taking it easy, or after scoring, letting the other team score. Hope I'm wrong as I rather pick upsets than draws.

A "measly" 8 BTC win here:

Atlanta United FC - New York Red Bulls. 2
Brazil - Bolivia. 1
CR Vasco da Gama - CR Flamengo RJ. 2
Colombia - Venezuela. 1
Croatia - Sweden. 1
England - Belgium. 2
France - Portugal. 1
Ireland - Wales. 2
New York City - New England Revolution. 2
Orlando City SC - Columbus Crew. 2
Poland - Italy. 2
Russia - Turkey. 2
SE Palmeiras SP - Sao Paulo FC SP. 1
Spain - Switzerland. 1
Ukraine - Germany. 2

[tyKiwanuka]

~snip~

Iirc, you did very well in the last MM which had alll these UNL games and even won that edition (with lots of others). And checking the menu from that week, it also featured the Flamengo game, so probably a good omen

MLS still has a full round this night, so maybe a bit stupid to already submit the bets, but anyway here are mine:

Atlanta United FC - New York Red Bulls
Brazil - Bolivia
CR Vasco da Gama - CR Flamengo RJ
Colombia - Venezuela
Croatia - Sweden DRAW
England - Belgium
France - Portugal
Ireland - Wales
New York City - New England Revolution DRAW
Orlando City SC - Columbus Crew
Poland - Italy DRAW
Russia - Turkey
SE Palmeiras SP - Sao Paulo FC SP
Spain - Switzerland
Ukraine - Germany

@Ty 351 is super low, given that Liverpool last lost that much in 1963, about 50 games a season means 2850 games in between, yeah, very bad odds.

Yep, 7-2 is a super rare score in any bigger league. And then you had the huge underdog winning with this score, which makes it even more unlikely. Without having any data to back it up, I would assume that there never was a @7.00 underdog winning 7-2 in EPL history ever And the odds for 7-2 for Liverpool were @251 as well, which is not that much lower as the @351 for Villa winning 7-2, and this just shows how unlikely this result is in general; no matter who is fav and who is dog.

[Avirunes]

I find this week's MM bit easy. Here is my picks for this week's MM:

Colombia -Venezuela (Colombia)
Ukraine - Germany (Germany)
Spain - Switzerland (Spain)
CR Vasco Da Gama - Cr Flamengo (Flamengo)
Brazil - Bolivia (Brazil)
Atlanta Utd - New York Red Bulls (New York Red Bulls)
Ireland - Wales (Draw)
Palmeiras - Sao Paulo (Palmeiras)
Croatia - Sweden (Croatia)
England - Belgium (Belgium)
France - Portugal (Draw)
Poland - Italy (Italy)
Russia - Turkey (Draw)
New York City - New England Revolution (New York City)
Orlando City - Columbus Crew (Orlando City)

[Trofo]

Tempted to pick a draw or two at least, because some of these Nations League games/CONMEBOL especially I suspect some coaches will be playing for fun and then everyone's just taking it easy, or after scoring, letting the other team score. Hope I'm wrong as I rather pick upsets than draws.

I don't quite understand your "hate" of the draws. When i pick the games for MM I always go for a draw in all the games that don't have a clear favourite to me.

I usually end with 5+ draws and I hit maybe 50% of them. That is the feeling now tyK will dive into the stats and say it is not true it is actually 38% 

[swogerino]

I think that Multi Master is easier when International games are played.Surprises happen rarely im International competitions compared to normal League games.I think this week we will see someone with 13-14 correct picks and of course that would not be me😜.

[tyKiwanuka]

I usually end with 5+ draws and I hit maybe 50% of them.

This is not true But you are close

Here is a break-down of your draw history:

Week 32: 3 draws picked, 2 correct
Week 33: 5 draws picked, 1 correct
Week 34: 8 draws picked, 2 correct
Week 35: 6 draws picked, 3 correct
Week 36: 3 draws picked, 1 correct
Week 37: 4 draws picked, 1 correct
Week 38: 6 draws picked, 3 correct
Week 39: 4 draws picked, 2 correct
Week 40: 7 draws picked, 4 correct (Juve vs Napoli dnp)

So overall you pick 5.11 draws per MM and hit on 42.22% (19/45) of those, which is pretty good.

[buwaytress]

I don't quite understand your "hate" of the draws. When i pick the games for MM I always go for a draw in all the games that don't have a clear favourite to me.

I usually end with 5+ draws and I hit maybe 50% of them. That is the feeling now tyK will dive into the stats and say it is not true it is actually 38% 

It's just sentimental and passion, no logic behind it even I know it! And the numbers show, draws are exactly almost as common as the odds show, so yeah, not picking draws *is* not good, but I'm always hoping that I hit it right once, more than many times close, so you never know, we get a MM with no draws and I already improve my chances to 50/50 on each game!

42% is not bad with the draws actually!

[rdbase]

^^
I think I actually have one draw since we are betting on champions league play here.
But then again.. what do I know?
I only got 5 correct from what I remember in the last Multimasters.

Here are my picks for this weekends games:


Only a measly 5 btc if it hits.

[Trofo]

So overall you pick 5.11 draws per MM and hit on 42.22% (19/45) of those, which is pretty good.

I knew it that you would be pulling some stats and bashing my delusions of perfect memory. This week I'll give my best to pick 5+draws and drag the ratio closer to 50%.
Picks will come tomorrow afternoon as usual.

I think that Multi Master is easier when International games are played.Surprises happen rarely im International competitions compared to normal League games.I think this week we will see someone with 13-14 correct picks and of course that would not be me😜.

I think quite the opposite. There is more surprises on international level at least when leagues have played a couple of match days and you disregard that ridiculous 1.05 odds when Germany is playing San Marino and similar. That is the best thing I can say about National league, it has minimized such matches where quality difference between the teams is enormous.

[morvillz7z]

Didn't put much effort into researching this week's matches.
Gut feeling predictions, basically the first thing that comes to my mind type of picks.
I won't be surprised if i get better results than the "well-thought-out" ones.
If i get 6+ correct this round i will likely switch permanently to this new strategy/rationale.

Colombia - Venezuela
Brazil - Bolivia
Ukraine - Germany
Spain - Switzerland
CR Vasco da Gama RJ - CR Flamengo RJ
Atlanta United FC - New York Red Bulls draw
SE Palmeiras SP - Sao Paulo FC SP
Ireland - Wales
Croatia - Sweden draw
England - Belgium draw
France - Portugal
Poland - Italy
Russia - Turkey
New York City FC - New England Revolution
Orlando City SC - Columbus Crew

[Trofo]

Here are my choices for this week's MM.

Atlanta United FC - New York Red Bulls -DRAW
Brazil - Bolivia
CR Vasco da Gama - CR Flamengo RJ
Colombia - Venezuela
Croatia - Sweden DRAW
England - Belgium
France - Portugal - DRAW
Ireland - Wales - DRAW
New York City - New England Revolution
Orlando City SC - Columbus Crew
Poland - Italy
Russia - Turkey DRAW
SE Palmeiras SP - Sao Paulo FC SP DRAW
Spain - Switzerland
Ukraine - Germany

6 DRAWS for me this time and I wanted to put a draw on Colombia match as well but decided to go with the flow. This one was quite hard or me and I picked all national teams by gut feeling and checked a bit of stats for Brazilian league and MSL. Good luck guys it is time that at least one of us ends in the money again.

[big_daddy]

I was looking to skip this MM, but I changed my mind 

my picks are: Atlanta, Brazil. Vasco, Colombia, Croatia, Belgium, France, Wales, New York City, Orlando City, Italy, Turkey, Palmeiras, Spain and Germany

no draws, cause I don't like them 

[rdbase]

The first match is going to be in about three hours from now.
I hope we can start off on a strong win for the home side and the favorites to win the match.

[tyKiwanuka]

We are still missing some picks - it's ok to take a break - so here is what we got so far:



Consensus found for Brazil, Colombia, Spain and Germany as of now. Looking at the rest of our picks, no one picked the home teams England and Ireland, who normally should have a good shot at winning their games - one of them will win for sure now^^. Will be interesting to see how Ireland reacts to being eliminated from Euro 2020 PO just yesterday. They could play with a chip on their shoulder or not care at all. No draw picked for Orlando - Columbus, which has some draw tendency imo. Lets see, good luck

[ralle14]

Two matches done another good start with the favorites winning. I don't know much about the nations league so I took all the favorites then a few away teams on the toss up matches. Germany being the heavy favorites against Ukraine doesn't seem right but I still took them anyway. 

Colombia - Venezuela
Brazil - Bolivia
Ukraine - Germany
Spain - Switzerland
CR Vasco da Gama RJ - CR Flamengo RJ
Atlanta United FC - New York Red Bulls
SE Palmeiras SP - Sao Paulo FC SP   (Draw)
Ireland - Wales
Croatia - Sweden
England - Belgium
France - Portugal   
Poland - Italy
Russia - Turkey
New York City FC - New England Revolution
Orlando City SC - Columbus Crew

[JanpriX]

Here's mine. 

Colombia - Venezuela
Brazil - Bolivia
Ukraine - Germany
Spain - Switzerland
CR Vasco da Gama RJ - CR Flamengo RJ
Atlanta United FC - New York Red Bulls
SE Palmeiras SP - Sao Paulo FC SP
Ireland - Wales
Croatia - Sweden
England - Draw - Belgium
France - Draw - Portugal
Poland - Italy
Russia - Turkey
New York City FC - New England Revolution
Orlando City SC - Draw - Columbus Crew

[rdbase]

Everybody is flawless in the first two matches that are completed on day one.
Now if germany doesn't mess their match up we will be all going into day two with all correct selections.