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January 01, 2020, 08:18:53 PM
 #41

I believe if there was that direct threat from the Chinese government, a POW change is in the discussion.

Such a POW change is not a cut and dried decision. To some, it would indicate the ultimate failure of Bitcoin's economic model. And ousting SHA256 miners would effectively pull the rug out from underneath the economy. A blockchain split would be inevitable and the security of the forked chain would be highly questionable.

It'd be interesting to see how that would play out, but it's not something I hope for. In that sense, maybe it's a good thing that local authorities are pressuring Sichuan miners to scale down.

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January 02, 2020, 05:25:14 AM
 #42

I believe if there was that direct threat from the Chinese government, a POW change is in the discussion.

Such a POW change is not a cut and dried decision. To some, it would indicate the ultimate failure of Bitcoin's economic model. And ousting SHA256 miners would effectively pull the rug out from underneath the economy. A blockchain split would be inevitable and the security of the forked chain would be highly questionable.

It'd be interesting to see how that would play out, but it's not something I hope for. In that sense, maybe it's a good thing that local authorities are pressuring Sichuan miners to scale down.


How would mitigating a direct catastrophic threat be an "ultimate failure" if the mitigation is what would actually save the network/protocol?

But, ultimately, I believe the threat/fear of a POW change will cause miners to sort themselves out. Their interests are tied directly to the network/protocol.

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January 02, 2020, 05:57:33 PM
 #43

I believe if there was that direct threat from the Chinese government, a POW change is in the discussion.

Such a POW change is not a cut and dried decision. To some, it would indicate the ultimate failure of Bitcoin's economic model. And ousting SHA256 miners would effectively pull the rug out from underneath the economy. A blockchain split would be inevitable and the security of the forked chain would be highly questionable.

It'd be interesting to see how that would play out, but it's not something I hope for. In that sense, maybe it's a good thing that local authorities are pressuring Sichuan miners to scale down.


How would mitigating a direct catastrophic threat be an "ultimate failure" if the mitigation is what would actually save the network/protocol?

But, ultimately, I believe the threat/fear of a POW change will cause miners to sort themselves out. Their interests are tied directly to the network/protocol.

Miner's interests are tied to the ASIC infrastructure they have built,
their are at least 3 major coins, they can support or switch too.
Thinking they have any loyalty to any coin is a opinion not a fact.
Their loyalty lies with their personal hardware infrastructure and whichever coin provides the highest profit margin in their own opinion.
Due to the reward drop this year and the majority of fees moving to LN, Bitcoin status as the most profitable could decline verses the others.
As in any conflict, best interests and support will change with different conditions.


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January 02, 2020, 09:17:38 PM
 #44

Such a POW change is not a cut and dried decision. To some, it would indicate the ultimate failure of Bitcoin's economic model. And ousting SHA256 miners would effectively pull the rug out from underneath the economy. A blockchain split would be inevitable and the security of the forked chain would be highly questionable.

It'd be interesting to see how that would play out, but it's not something I hope for. In that sense, maybe it's a good thing that local authorities are pressuring Sichuan miners to scale down.

How would mitigating a direct catastrophic threat be an "ultimate failure" if the mitigation is what would actually save the network/protocol?

Bitcoin's entire model is based on rationally incentivizing honest mining. This case would prove that the existing incentives are insufficient to actually achieve that. It would be a catastrophic blow to confidence in the system.

Do you really think we can just brick all existing mining hardware without consequences? Huh

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January 03, 2020, 06:59:38 AM
 #45

I believe if there was that direct threat from the Chinese government, a POW change is in the discussion.

Such a POW change is not a cut and dried decision. To some, it would indicate the ultimate failure of Bitcoin's economic model. And ousting SHA256 miners would effectively pull the rug out from underneath the economy. A blockchain split would be inevitable and the security of the forked chain would be highly questionable.

It'd be interesting to see how that would play out, but it's not something I hope for. In that sense, maybe it's a good thing that local authorities are pressuring Sichuan miners to scale down.


How would mitigating a direct catastrophic threat be an "ultimate failure" if the mitigation is what would actually save the network/protocol?

But, ultimately, I believe the threat/fear of a POW change will cause miners to sort themselves out. Their interests are tied directly to the network/protocol.

Miner's interests are tied to the ASIC infrastructure they have built,
their are at least 3 major coins, they can support or switch too.
Thinking they have any loyalty to any coin is a opinion not a fact.
Their loyalty lies with their personal hardware infrastructure and whichever coin provides the highest profit margin in their own opinion.
Due to the reward drop this year and the majority of fees moving to LN, Bitcoin status as the most profitable could decline verses the others.
As in any conflict, best interests and support will change with different conditions.


That debate I can accept, and say "we can only leave it to the market, the miners, the users". But the assumption that the majority of fees will be moving to LN this year, no it won't.

Plus ask you yourselves, "Will miners, developers, and users truly leave Bitcoin for Bitcoin Cash or SV"?

Such a POW change is not a cut and dried decision. To some, it would indicate the ultimate failure of Bitcoin's economic model. And ousting SHA256 miners would effectively pull the rug out from underneath the economy. A blockchain split would be inevitable and the security of the forked chain would be highly questionable.

It'd be interesting to see how that would play out, but it's not something I hope for. In that sense, maybe it's a good thing that local authorities are pressuring Sichuan miners to scale down.

How would mitigating a direct catastrophic threat be an "ultimate failure" if the mitigation is what would actually save the network/protocol?

Bitcoin's entire model is based on rationally incentivizing honest mining. This case would prove that the existing incentives are insufficient to actually achieve that. It would be a catastrophic blow to confidence in the system.

Do you really think we can just brick all existing mining hardware without consequences? Huh


The debate started from "the miners are stopped from being rational". If they continued to be rational, no problem.

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January 03, 2020, 10:41:21 AM
 #46

The debate started from "the miners are stopped from being rational".

No, it was about a situation where incentives external to the protocol might override block rewards. All game theory assumes that miners will be rational.

Hypothetical situation: The Chinese government pays miners to attack the network, and threatens those who don't comply with prison time. Wouldn't it be rational for Chinese miners to engage in the attack? I think so...

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January 03, 2020, 11:26:55 AM
 #47

The debate started from "the miners are stopped from being rational".

No, it was about a situation where incentives external to the protocol might override block rewards. All game theory assumes that miners will be rational.

Hypothetical situation: The Chinese government pays miners to attack the network, and threatens those who don't comply with prison time. Wouldn't it be rational for Chinese miners to engage in the attack? I think so...


NO, that would show the Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and SV communities that the miners that accepted payment can be irrational, and can never be trusted. POW change, their attack would cost them everything.

I believe it might bring the Bitcoin community together again, maybe for a short time. Cool

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January 03, 2020, 12:11:04 PM
 #48

Someone could be shorting bitcoin, and to make sure that happens, they attack it. They'd have to spend an ungodly amount for the attack, keep it sustained, watch the price go down to whatever level they need it to go to, and profit.

In order to make it worth their while, they'd have to at least double what they spent on the attack, so we're looking at millions at stake.

POW change is very unlikely as currently this is the most secure it's ever been.

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January 03, 2020, 12:44:13 PM
 #49

--snip--

Plus ask you yourselves, "Will miners, developers, and users truly leave Bitcoin for Bitcoin Cash or SV"?

I don't really think that anybody would leave or divert or shift (whatever you call it) their mining power to any shit coins unless BTC's security becomes questionable and encounters the possible attacks OP started talking about. It's not just the 51% attack alone that could destroy BTC but the interest of miners is one another major consensus that could leave you, me and everyone empty handed as well as scratching our heads off if they ever decide to drop this Bitcoin thing right there because of their personal (possible) losses that they may face because of lower prices and not being able to even break even, and as many miners mine for economic gains too, if they see more profits while mining other 2 coins you talked about (and even any other coin they think to be the next Bitcoin and what not), it will literally do a lot of harm to the economy of BTC and may slide it down from its (1st) position that it has been holding since a decade.

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January 03, 2020, 01:00:12 PM
 #50

If you were a miner, and not just any small home hobby miner, but someone who has maybe at least 1% of the network OR otherwise has significant investments = such as renting a warehouse or other building and have a whole floor or shelf of equipment... and suppose you mined enough to pay all relevant bills, electricity mostly with some change leftover, or enough to make it worth your while ...

Would you do anything else that could possibly harm your source of income?

The ones I hear about, a lot of them are legit miners who don't want any attention, have basic physical security, and just mine quietly in their little buildings, paying all their bills, pretending to be some other type of business with almost no other social interaction. Just enough not to be noticed.

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January 03, 2020, 06:55:39 PM
 #51

The debate started from "the miners are stopped from being rational".
No, it was about a situation where incentives external to the protocol might override block rewards. All game theory assumes that miners will be rational.

Hypothetical situation: The Chinese government pays miners to attack the network, and threatens those who don't comply with prison time. Wouldn't it be rational for Chinese miners to engage in the attack? I think so...

NO, that would show the Bitcoin [community] that the miners that accepted payment can be irrational, and can never be trusted.

That's not irrational behavior given the circumstances.

In any case, you're conceding my point -- if we can't depend on miners to be honest, how can we have confidence in the system's ability to secure our money? Even if the community rallied around a hard fork, what is the basis for user confidence in the new (and much less secure POW-wise) fork? What is to stop this from happening again?

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January 05, 2020, 09:43:06 AM
 #52

The debate started from "the miners are stopped from being rational".
No, it was about a situation where incentives external to the protocol might override block rewards. All game theory assumes that miners will be rational.

Hypothetical situation: The Chinese government pays miners to attack the network, and threatens those who don't comply with prison time. Wouldn't it be rational for Chinese miners to engage in the attack? I think so...

NO, that would show the Bitcoin [community] that the miners that accepted payment can be irrational, and can never be trusted.

That's not irrational behavior given the circumstances.

In any case, you're conceding my point -- if we can't depend on miners to be honest, how can we have confidence in the system's ability to secure our money? Even if the community rallied around a hard fork, what is the basis for user confidence in the new (and much less secure POW-wise) fork? What is to stop this from happening again?


IT IS irrational. Sacrificing the fundamental nature of their business, ending it, and all potential future profits by being corrupted is rational? Jihan Wu would be the first to call for a POW change if he saw it. Hahaha.

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January 05, 2020, 07:13:20 PM
 #53

Hypothetical situation: The Chinese government pays miners to attack the network, and threatens those who don't comply with prison time. Wouldn't it be rational for Chinese miners to engage in the attack? I think so...
IT IS irrational. Sacrificing the fundamental nature of their business, ending it, and all potential future profits by being corrupted is rational?

Are you just trolling?

We're talking about a situation where the government is physically co-opting mining farms and threatening miners with prison time. Business concerns went out the window a long time ago...

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January 06, 2020, 06:39:42 AM
 #54

Hypothetical situation: The Chinese government pays miners to attack the network, and threatens those who don't comply with prison time. Wouldn't it be rational for Chinese miners to engage in the attack? I think so...
IT IS irrational. Sacrificing the fundamental nature of their business, ending it, and all potential future profits by being corrupted is rational?

Are you just trolling?

We're talking about a situation where the government is physically co-opting mining farms and threatening miners with prison time. Business concerns went out the window a long time ago...


Then do you truly believe that we should start clamoring for a POW-change? The Chinese government can do it anytime they want, you know. Cool

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January 06, 2020, 06:58:54 PM
 #55

Then do you truly believe that we should start clamoring for a POW-change? The Chinese government can do it anytime they want, you know. Cool

There's difference clamoring for PoW algorithm change and preparing for worst case scenario which forcing PoW algorithm change.
If Bitcoin community could agree on few critical things (which PoW algorithm should be used and should the hard-fork include other changes as well) for worst case scenario, it would significant decrease damage if such worst case scenario happened.

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January 06, 2020, 07:26:04 PM
 #56

It is kinda hard to hide something of that scale, in case a prominent member of the Chinese mining community such as Jihan Wu (or anyone else for that matter) is threatened with prison time. Something is going to leak out.

The governments know that, so they won't do anything like co-opting mining farms. They can't even contain some of their territories ... (HK protests, etc.)

PoW algo change is one of the last things to change, if it ever gets to that point.

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January 06, 2020, 07:54:30 PM
 #57

It is kinda hard to hide something of that scale, in case a prominent member of the Chinese mining community such as Jihan Wu (or anyone else for that matter) is threatened with prison time. Something is going to leak out.

The governments know that, so they won't do anything like co-opting mining farms. They can't even contain some of their territories ... (HK protests, etc.)

why would they care about a leak? i assume the point of such an attack would be to crush confidence in bitcoin. a state-backed attack might shake peoples' confidence all the more.

bitcoin miners in china are fairly concentrated and there's no comparison in numbers to a popular protest movement. large mining farms and pools would be much easier to control.

PoW algo change is one of the last things to change, if it ever gets to that point.

i'd prefer to think we could just "wait out" an attack like this rather than hard forking.

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January 07, 2020, 10:44:02 AM
 #58

Then do you truly believe that we should start clamoring for a POW-change? The Chinese government can do it anytime they want, you know. Cool

There's difference clamoring for PoW algorithm change and preparing for worst case scenario which forcing PoW algorithm change.
If Bitcoin community could agree on few critical things (which PoW algorithm should be used and should the hard-fork include other changes as well) for worst case scenario, it would significant decrease damage if such worst case scenario happened.


But from his point of view, I was asking him if he believes that it would be rational to start clamoring for a POW-change.


It is kinda hard to hide something of that scale, in case a prominent member of the Chinese mining community such as Jihan Wu (or anyone else for that matter) is threatened with prison time. Something is going to leak out.


The Chinese government could order to cut all electricity to all mining farms in their country immediately. Should we start clamoring for a POW-change?

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January 07, 2020, 01:44:11 PM
 #59

If mining farms don't have power or internet, then they won't be mining, leaving the rest of the world to continue the mining. Difficulty will go down a bit when that happens, but we'll just continue like normal.

I think the bigger Chinese crypto companies (exchanges, asic manufacturers) have offices in other countries for the purpose of avoiding government control.

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January 07, 2020, 09:55:38 PM
 #60

The Chinese government could order to cut all electricity to all mining farms in their country immediately. Should we start clamoring for a POW-change?

that might cause hash rate to plummet and block times to become significantly longer. impatient people might start clamoring for an emergency difficulty adjustment, but a POW change? that wouldn't make sense.

even if the chinese government seized farms, miners, pools, chip fabrication factories, etc and performed sustained 51%/censorship attacks.....the electricity, overhead, and production costs would be real. they couldn't just sustain the attack indefinitely. so ideally there would still be no POW change---we could just let the attackers burn themselves out. i just hope that bitcoiners are patient enough to do that.

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