Are we getting a pump and dump for this month?

One of the most commonly spouted tenets of cryptocurrency trading is “past performance is never an indicator of future success.” However, when the same pattern occurs three years in a row at almost exactly the same time, it can be easy to question the validity of this statement.

In this case, we are talking about the fact that Bitcoin (BTC) has witnessed a significant pump for the past three years at the beginning of January—gaining between 10% and 24% in the first week of the new year.

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January wasn't really good for the past two years. Will it repeat again?

Two years ago after the big BTC bull run, "The Great Bitcoin Crash" began in the mid-January and it ended up around $3k+ in December.

Last year, it started from $3k+ and it ain't that good either, but we finished above $7k last month. So almost $4k gained.

Will there really be a pump and dump for this month? I know that the market is so unpredictable now, but I wanna hear your reactions or thoughts about this one.

Thanks in advance.

Not really sure when talking about a specific time of pump and dump because they can happen anytime. Sometimes we have both pump and dump in a month, but at the other time we may find out no pump exactly. January is like the time for every investor to prepare their strategy and plan for their assets for 1 year ahead. In this case, the biggest possibility is for a dump.

Apparently this seems to be the situation as it has been predicted that bitcoin is going to dump a little before it rises again. This is exactly what we are experiencing at the moment. I hope this dump does not go on for a very long time to ruin that returns that most of us are waiting for with bitcoin halving just around the corner.

i don't know if it does have a pattern to follow because if its that easy to see. traders are looking into the charts and usually the price reacts base on the news coming from the team or base simply to the market. if you look at the chart, the market has been going down since July of 2019, it only tried to go up on October but bears are winning the game even today. my guess is that it will continue to do so until June.

Quote from: cheezcarls on January 02, 2020, 06:09:48 PM

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I didn't know about this behavior on Bitcoin, but one thing is for sure, it's a good opportunity to buy cheap options.

Maybe it can leave a good profit and casually there are two that have an expiration date close to the days of the pump and dump, unlike the other months of the year.

crypto trading is very difficult to predict, unlike forex trading which every month can be sure there is a high impact, sometimes bitcoin has no news whatsoever suddenly there is a big movement, even when I use technical analysis for bitcoin it often shows fake signals.

I feel the price will be stable for this month. It will be in this present price of $6k+. Those who have panicked sell for the holiday are through. Things will be calm for now.

It's not compulsory that the future repeat itself always. I also want to see a new direction in Bitcoin, and not the usual direction of what we have seen in the past.

Well, those periods in time, Bitcoin was extremely overbought and did correction all through the year 2018 which we are still yet to come out from. Looking at the upcoming halving. it might not get to the worse as most people have predicted and I don't expect price dwindling far beyond what we have currently.

Really we can't expect as we predict the Bitcoin price nowadays because of the crypto market under bad conditions only and today bitcoin price drop around 3% down, and I hope we can see big pump very soon with in this month because they are lot of good things going to come.

We are neither after a bull or a bear so i don't think bitcoin would have any large changes in prices on January as it has been one of the slowest month for trading.
The market has been on its lower end and not much to fall while the festival season pressure would not let it bull.

Considering the pattern at which the price of Bitcoin is going, I personally think we are gonna have a dump for this month. It is quite likely that the market value of bitcoin might even drop down to either $6k or $5.5k within this month. But this do not indicate that 2020 will not be a good year for Bitcoin. Investors and traders should take advantage of the drop in the market value of Bitcoin and make some profit out of it.

I'm thinking that the market could go up and down this month and probably may take go high by next couple of months and this might happen before halving or after.

And it would be better to take advantage of the market flows, and making a profit within this month is roughly hard depend on the volume.

Quote from: d3nz on January 03, 2020, 02:37:20 AM

It doesn't matter if the btc is going up and down what's more important is btc will have to go higher and break another record in all time high. It might not gonna happen sooner but later will do. The good thing to do while the price is low is to buy more and try to save to have a good return when btc soars high to the moon.

no one can predict the price of bitcoin with certainty. I'm just speculating and in my opinion in January bitcoin will be a dump. today bitcoin has also fallen by 3% and left the level of $ 7k. currently the price of bitcoin is $ 6900 and I think it will continue to decline to $ 6k. and it will be a good opportunity for those who want to buy bitcoin. and in my opinion bitcoin will start to increase in March.

Quote from: cheezcarls on January 02, 2020, 06:09:48 PM

However, when the same pattern occurs three years in a row at almost exactly the same time, it can be easy to question the validity of this statement.

3 years is honestly a very very short time span. Even if we had the same market movement for 10 straight years, the price can still move in a different manner the following year; especially knowing that we're talking about a very very young asset class here. Not like other assets like stocks that has existed since as far as we can remember.

Also take note that the market sentiment and the people's perception of bitcoin today compared to the past 3 years, is very very different. Remember to also always take fundamentals into account, and to not only look at charts.

Quote from: cheezcarls on January 02, 2020, 06:09:48 PM

I know that the market is so unpredictable now,

The markets has ALWAYS been very unpredictable.

Quote from: cheezcarls on January 02, 2020, 06:09:48 PM

January wasn't really good for the past two years. Will it repeat again?

Two years ago after the big BTC bull run, "The Great Bitcoin Crash" began in the mid-January and it ended up around $3k+ in December.

Last year, it started from $3k+ and it ain't that good either, but we finished above $7k last month. So almost $4k gained.

Will there really be a pump and dump for this month? I know that the market is so unpredictable now, but I wanna hear your reactions or thoughts about this one.

Thanks in advance.

We do see that the price had gone down below 7k but it isnt really that too deep to consider out to be a dump.Question if it would happen the same thing just like on previous year? Who knows?

We cant even sure if this sudden price down movement would continue until on 6500 support price or would stay up currently for the moment and we would head back again for recovery.

In this new year, im not really expecting much other than on that halving event.

I always prepare for end of December, January and February, in 2015 if me not wrong, bitcoin price dumped really hard and a lot of people panic because of it. And it already happenned in a years, so people like me usually hold fiat to save my investment or maybe wait until bitcoin get very low to buy it.

The crash happened because of the big bull run of 2017. It needed some sort of outlet of release since the bull run was way too big, way too much for the market to handle, and so the crash happened for close to 2 years. The start of January 2019 at $3k could actually be described as the start or moment where the market has stabilized already, and the entire year of 2019 could be said to have placed the development of Bitcoin at its proper state.

Quote from: barabarian1 on January 03, 2020, 02:45:55 AM

Bitcoin just came back to 7k skl. Really, a drop of 3% isn't that serious. It's just a market fluctuation, which is really natural considering the volatility of the market of Bitcoin.

considering the fact that bitcoin is not some useless altcoin to see pump and dumps and also the fact that for the past (at least) 7 years there has not been any major manipulation of the market the answer to your silly title is no.

as for the patterns, i don't see any! of course you can always force a pattern out of any movement that bitcoin has and make it seem like repetition but that is not what repeated patterns mean. the only thing that could be repeated is the FOMO since we have the halving coming and the price has been down for a long time now that the market is ready for the rise.

I think the pump has already started, Bitcoin was dropped below $7,000 and now it has bounce back strong and currently trading at $7200..
This is a great start because it bounce back right away and I hope will be go as high as $8000 before it will dump again if there's really a pump and dump this month. Honestly, IMO, anything can happen but we need to take advantage if there's a pump and dump.