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Author Topic: Halving, who's closest with actual Nrs TAKE A CHANCE on the LIST !!!  (Read 7224 times)
El duderino_
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January 12, 2020, 12:08:51 PM
 #401

I just think the sound of El duderino and exit scam in a same sentence is sounding like Kanye west for president.....

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JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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January 12, 2020, 04:43:58 PM
Merited by JSRAW (1)
 #402

[edited out]

Some of the best bitcoins were brought under 1k.

Of course, many of us into bitcoin, and who established a good quantity of our BTC stashes before April 2017, had purchased a good amount of our BTC for under $1k, and some BTC HODLers had either purchased all of their stash below $1k, or even the BTC that they bought above $1k after March 2017 would NOT have came even close to causing their average cost per BTC to go above $1k. 

My point is NOT so much about a lot of the acquisition of BTC below $1k or even the various strategies of the earlier adopters to accumulate BTC while keeping their costs below $1k per BTC, but just that to me (and likely several others who had been into BTC for a decent amount of time before April 2017 - hey I kind of even consider the BTC accumulators who came into BTC in mid 2015 or later to have been a bit spoiled, relatively speaking because their BTC had likely had a lot more UPwards movements in price rather than extended periods of down and even being in the negative) it would feel quite devastating to revisit those kinds of sub $1k price territories, and even revisiting the current lowest bottom of this particular cycle of $3,124, would be a bit of a downer... and you know if we go anywhere back below $4k the odds become pretty high, at that point, that there would be attempts to revisit that $3,124 bottom.

Cannot really know before-hand how I personally would react, even though I believe that it is prudent to continue to prepare for extreme scenarios, even the ones that seem to be within the low ends of probabilities.

Sure, there are a decent amount of folks who came into BTC after March 2017, so their costs are likely quite a bit higher than $1k, even though there might be some (probably rare) folks who have been able to engage in BTC accumulation strategies and tactics to bring their costs per BTC down to below $1k, the most likely of scenarios for those who came into BTC after March 2017 would be the prudent dollar cost averaging ones, even including buying around the time of the $19,666 top and continuing to dollar cost average and accumulate BTC, which still might end up bringing costs of per BTC into a $6k to $9k range, which would ONLY be slightly profitable currently, but still seeming (to me) like a great long-term investment, as long as the investment time horizon is at least 4 years, and if the person(s) are still accumulating BTC, currently, then having a longer time horizon for establishing a decent BTC stash/stake should allow for even greater likelihoods of appreciable profits that out perform other assets into the future.  A good tool to look at historical DCA performance of bitcoin compared with gold and the Dow Jones Industrial Index fund, can be done here, link courtesy of biodom......

I just think the sound of El duderino and exit scam in a same sentence is sounding like Kanye west for president.....

No actual human being (or even algorithm written by humans) is free from exit scamming, so I don't believe it is healthy to consider any one to be free from exit scamming - even if the odds are low and even it the starting premise a "gift" or a "give away" - even with a decently long reputation getting established, especially on the interwebs.. and even if some peeps have met you in real life or can figure out who you are.  Of course, long scams involve building confidence to be put into a position to be able to exit scam with larger amounts of money, and surely folks who have been put into positions of trust in the past would be more likely to be put into positions of trust into the future with larger amounts of money.  Anyone might be considered to NOT be engaging in a long scam, until it happens... then fuck.  Happens a lot in bitcoin, even though I am NOT specifically accusing you of such, no one is immuned from being considered in such light as being possible, under certain conditions.

Of course, you have demonstrated a historical track record for following through with your promised payments, and that is reflected in trust that several forum members have already left for you, and no one publicly accuses you of having had screwed them out of coins or anything like that, and the opposite has been claimed in terms of your paying for promises and debts, so yeah, you do not have any of those kinds of blemishes, as far as I know.

Yeah, it could be true that you personally are either incapable of an exit scam or that you are much more self-less than the average saint, but does not seem to be healthy to consider people as self-less and one of the presumptions of bitcoin hinges on people having ongoing incentives to act in their own interest.....

Funny thing about bitcoin does continue to be the combination of trust that still seems to be part of the ongoing space, even when we are getting down to fundamental design issues from satoshi in which there was a presumption that people were going to act in their own self-interest and even attack the bitcoin system up to a certain point (including satoshi anticipating a lot of snake oil salesmen, and surely those anticipations have played out in reality) - and some of those balances of trust and trustless continue to be ongoing in design issues in bitcoin, including whether it might be better to allow bitcoin's code to ossify rather than to improve...

I mean there is a certain kind of value that is placed on both the difficulties in changing bitcoin (which is a feature and not a bug in bitcoin, even though frequently criticized by bitcoin naysayers and alt coin pumpers) and even a kind of banking upon bitcoin will NOT change - so if any of us were to go into a 10-year coma, we should still be able to recover our coins as long as we could get access to our private keys upon coming out of our coma.... The same cannot be asserted regarding the vast majority of shitcoins including the stupid ass hardforking preferences which seems to cause real issues for anyone who might go into a 10 year coma and might not be able to retrieve his/her coins, and the shitcoins also have greater degrees of centralization and even folks who might not be counted upon - even if they might seem to be saints... and I suppose in bitcoin, there are built in mechanisms that strive to NOT allow any one person or group of people to have too much control in bitcoin, and to default to NOT changing if there is disagreement or if overwhelming consensus cannot be reached, even blockstream - while they have been frequently accused of having more control and influence over the direction of bitcoin and its software than they deserve to have, but those proclamations about the purported power of blockstream are frequently exaggerated since there still remains abilities for anyone to challenge and check code that have been proposed and adopted into bitcoin through them or any of their agents (principles, staff or employees). 

Surely, we have to be careful about granting too much authority or credibility to any person or group in bitcoin, and of course, more young people learning to code and getting involved in bitcoin is likely to help to keep eyes on the code and not allowed any bugs to be slipped in ..... not fool proof, but ongoing healthy skepticism... and ability to adapt to adverse behaviors of individuals that could happen, even with anyone (or team) Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy holding themselves out as a potential saint.   

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
Globb0
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January 12, 2020, 04:57:39 PM
 #403

bitebits
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Bitcoin != exchange rate


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January 13, 2020, 06:25:12 AM
 #404

It's not really a big deal but I found a small problem with the ranges we've decided on.

 The very first set should be 1-50 (or 0-49 which would change all other picks too) otherwise whoever chooses that has one extra dollar in their range (0-50 is a $51 range) over everyone else.  On the other hand, if the price is $0 then I guess we all lose anyway...  Sad




at zero the prize is also zero



 Respectfully disagree.  At $0 the prize is still .125 Bitcoin and even if the network is down,  i believe El duderino would provide a paper wallet with those funds - probably already set aside.  I also imagine there will be many WO members collecting as many BTC as possible at that price point.



Brilliant, and with Homer on this one.

Makes me realize again the importance of low resource requirements to run a node. Even if large parts of the internet or offline, and I think in such case Bitcoin would be the least of anyone’s problem at this stage of its adoption, there will always be a few altruistic or incentivized people running a node and keeping the network going.

Once I settle down the first thing to play around with is a satellite dish.

- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
- Pay any Bitcoin address privately with a little help of Monero:
 on.your.mark, get set, go!
El duderino_
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January 14, 2020, 01:59:39 PM
 #405

Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
Phil_S
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January 14, 2020, 03:38:01 PM
 #406

Quote
8701-8750          Phil_S *

I'm going to enjoy it while I still can...  Cool
bitebits
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January 14, 2020, 04:40:57 PM
 #407

Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

Not a bear or trader, the opposite actually.

However the last few days of movement, up in this case, is of non importance. The next exchange hack, gox coins, Trump tweet or just an angry whale is always around the corner. We are still early I believe to even be sure we are out of the bear market.

Predicting the price on the 1st of April is like throwing darts blindfolded, IMHO. It is however telling that most of the ‘previous winners’ are in the <$8k zone. Bitcoin tends to do what is the least expected.

- You can figure out what will happen, not when /Warren Buffett
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Dunkelheit667
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no degradation


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January 14, 2020, 07:54:21 PM
 #408

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??
Not at all, as the data for my "TA" did not change at all. Wink

But seriously, who can predict how the honey badger will behave? 6k, 9k or 18k in a few weeks, who cares? Our stake will not change much until then, I guess. Smiley

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And when the machine stops, time is an illusion that we created free will.
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kurious
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January 15, 2020, 12:02:23 PM
 #409

I just think the sound of El duderino and exit scam in a same sentence is sounding like Kanye west for president.....

Except that Kanye West for president is (albeit microscopically) plausible.  The Dude exit scamming has a probability of ZERO.

我想要火箭和火车
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January 15, 2020, 12:04:19 PM
 #410

Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

I wouldn't. Let's face it, I am usually very wrong, which is (part of) why I went low.

If I go high, it goes low - I want it high, so I GO LOW.

Hope it works Wink

我想要火箭和火车
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January 15, 2020, 12:45:39 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #411

Deleted again, bitcoin discussion?

Can the mods just get lost please.
El duderino_
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January 15, 2020, 03:39:35 PM
 #412

Deleted again, bitcoin discussion?

Can the mods just get lost please.

I think there is one working on meds or something............

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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January 15, 2020, 07:49:10 PM
 #413

Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

I wouldn't. Let's face it, I am usually very wrong, which is (part of) why I went low.

If I go high, it goes low - I want it high, so I GO LOW.

Hope it works Wink

Psychology (or reverse psychology) NO doesn't work on king daddy.   Tongue Tongue

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
El duderino_
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January 15, 2020, 08:29:48 PM
 #414

Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

I wouldn't. Let's face it, I am usually very wrong, which is (part of) why I went low.

If I go high, it goes low - I want it high, so I GO LOW.

Hope it works Wink

Psychology (or reverse psychology) NO doesn't work on king daddy.   Tongue Tongue

Soooo who the F*** are you to tell us what works or what doesn't work!!!  Kiss

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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January 15, 2020, 08:35:43 PM
 #415

Names are shifting....

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Just to know? Or is the last days of non-importance??

I wouldn't. Let's face it, I am usually very wrong, which is (part of) why I went low.

If I go high, it goes low - I want it high, so I GO LOW.

Hope it works Wink

Psychology (or reverse psychology) NO doesn't work on king daddy.   Tongue Tongue

Soooo who the F*** are you to tell us what works or what doesn't work!!!  Kiss

Thanks for asking.

I am a wannabe couch potato reverse psychology expert, with particular credentials and specialitizations in king daddy. 

This happens to be your lucky day because you would have never know, had you not asked.   Wink

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
sgbett
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January 16, 2020, 06:41:31 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #416

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Nope. My original forecast was set in stone Wink

Not to mention I'm probably one of the most bullish on bitcoin that there ever has been, in earnest. I've been ridiculed for those outlandish future forecasts, just as much as I have for supposedly impossible dips at the risk of sounding like that guy, I've seen a few price moves in my time so I think I'm just able to comprehend its volatility more than some.

FWIW, I still think the 560k target is good, but things have gotten complicated with forks and stuff so it's probably gonna be another 5-10 years. Oh well, I've waited this long... on the bright side that means we are already over half way there!

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January 16, 2020, 08:44:02 PM
 #417

Small question to participants, those with lower guesses if the game would start from today, would you still pick same prices or would a few days as we have had change your minds??

Nope. My original forecast was set in stone Wink

Not really either. I'd probably be sticking with my original analysis, even though I felt $8.4K would be the resistance of an accumulation zone. I still feel there will be further accumulation to come, but now more likely to come from a wick down or v-shaped bottom instead of a clear-cut parallel channel (as is usually the case).

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if on April 1st the price is 5 figures rather than 4 figures that many participants (including myself) had guessed. I also read today an analyst claiming "we won't go below $7K again". Once I start hearing people saying stupid statements such as "we will never go below X again", I start to feel bearish again  Tongue

To clarify, saying there is 0% chance of Bitcoin going from anywhere between $0 to $1 million, you need your head examined. There is always a probability there isn't 0, even if incredibly small such as 0.1 to the power of a million (ie, almost impossible, but clearly not). Anyway, moving on.


El duderino_
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January 17, 2020, 11:33:09 AM
 #418

0-10 best performing, wow I do like this link a lot thx again @hatshepsut93


0. 8901-8950   0   stompix
1. 8851-8900   -8   mu_enrico
2. 8951-9000   +43   Mitchell
3. 8801-8850   -58   malevolent
4. 9001-9050   +93   Dunkelheit667
5. 8751-8800   -108   abel1337
6. 9051-9100   +143   actmyname
7. 8701-8750   -158   Phil_S
8. 9101-9150   +193   Olegya199
9. 8651-8700   -208   mindrust
10. 9151-9200   +243   somac.

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
mu_enrico
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January 18, 2020, 05:21:40 PM
 #419

How's this possible? This is my lucky number... I should have been the number 0:
Quote
Current Bitcoin price: $8888.00
0. 8901-8950   0   stompix
1. 8851-8900   +37   mu_enrico
2. 8801-8850   -38   malevolent
3. 8951-9000   +63   Mitchell
4. 8751-8800   -88   abel1337
5. 9001-9050   +113   Dunkelheit667
https://tiramisu77.github.io/bct-game-leaderboard/

But after I checked again (refresh), it seems to be correct:
Quote
Current Bitcoin price: $8870.82
0. 8851-8900   0   mu_enrico
1. 8801-8850   -21   malevolent
2. 8901-8950   +30   stompix
3. 8751-8800   -71   abel1337
4. 8951-9000   +80   Mitchell
5. 8701-8750   -121   Phil_S

Maybe there was a slight delay between the price and the rank algo? *Just curious though, It is still far far away from April. Anything can happen Cry

.WOLF.BET.▄███████████▄
███████    ████████████▄
███████    ███████   ▀██
██████████████████    ██
██    ██████████████████
██    ███████    ███████
█████████████    ███████
███████    █████████████
███████    ███████    ██
██████████████████   ▄██
██        ▀███████████▀
██
██

█████
  ███
  ███
  ███
  ███
  ███
  ███
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█████


El duderino_
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January 20, 2020, 09:50:24 PM
Merited by bitserve (1)
 #420

I think I have awarded everyone with merit who did the effort of given a bit of reasoning or TA about there chosen price spot....

GL everyone again Roll Eyes

XhomerX10 designed my nice avatar HATs!!!!!  Thanks Bro
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