Stance on bitcoin's effect towards the Global Economy

[coinfinger]

Nobody can deny that bitcoin has changed some things, just to give an example if your bank is a horrible shady bank at least bitcoin offered an alternative to it, if your nation is a bad one (in financial terms) you could buy bitcoins to get away from impending devaluation. Many many reasons why bitcoin became an alternative to people and changed their lives.

However, global economy is just too huge, and I mean really huge, bitcoin could be bigger in market value than some of the worlds smallest nations treasury for example but when you talk about "global" it becomes something even bigger, it becomes a real big gap between where bitcoin is right now and where global economy is at. Of course it has a role in it now, nobody can say bitcoin is nothing but we still have a long way to go as well.

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[HarmonyA]

I have said this before, and I will say it again, the existence of bitcoin or crypto alone won't help a failing economy. Nonetheless, given how the whole World is going through a recession for years now, and also living in widespread ignorance that recession isn't here yet, rather, its coming in the near future. The World is at its brink of an economic collapse, the global debt is increasing by the day, AND we are, or at least we were almost on the verge of another World War, and 2020 just hasn't gotten to a very solid start people were expecting.

With that said, I wanna hear constructive opinions/predictions/speculations, on how things are gonna end up by the end of this year, and this decade. How is the GDP gonna get affected by everything happening, how are countries going to survive recession, and what is to say that we won't suffer through the Great Depression Phase 2? And most importantly, how is crypto going to come out of this?  

Edit: I forgot to self-mod this topic, so if you spam, I will report you, and get the post deleted.

The existence of bitcoin can help a failing economy. Government have several transactions that involve huge money which makes middle men make huge money in the process of it execution.
One of the essential highlights of Bitcoin is that it doesn't require a middle person like conventional cash does. As opposed to a bank or other focal establishment approving exchanges, all clients of the money confirm it in a decentralized manner.

[outatime1]

I think Bitcoin gives an opportunity for us to control our own finances rather than relying or companies or the government as much as we have in the past.  It's only going to get better as Bitcoin becomes accepted more.

[TheUltraElite]

I think Bitcoin gives an opportunity for us to control our own finances rather than relying or companies or the government as much as we have in the past.  It's only going to get better as Bitcoin becomes accepted more.

Although your first statement is correct, you did not read the OP's post properly or you did not understand it which is perfectly fine.

Bitcoin being accepted more will increase its price no doubt. But that does not mean an economy completely based on crypto is a saving grace for every problem in the world. We have gone past that false belief which was a source of a lot of questioning in the past in this forum.

Now the use of both fiat and crypto without any restriction is what should be allowed. Corruption and bribery is something that you cannot stop so easily because it is human nature. Fiat and its problems will continue to exist, while I feel crypto will become a more speculative asset to store money for the long term.

[pugman]

It is true that some countries are slowly but surely sinking into recession, but they still call it "a technical recession" (Italy), and another obvious example in the EU is Germany which reportedly escaped the recession with a meager growth of just 0.1% in third quarter, and as I said before, it barely hangs above the surface of the water.

The countries you mention (Venezuela, Zimbabwe) have always been in trouble, and the combination of internal political crises, sanctions and a slowdown in the world economy have only worsened the situation in these countries. It is my opinion that the USA could again be the trigger for a possible new global recession, the same as it was in 1929 or 2008. But at the same time S&P 500 Hits Record High, Boosted By Trade Progress And Strong Earnings which shows that things are not exactly what they seem, at least for the USA.

Its an interesting way to call "a technical recession", it somehow keeps their general public still in check, instead of creating a chaos. Its quite something, governments trying to come with terms that somehow convinces their general public to believe into something ridiculous as hell, as if they are in a sane world, while the reality is quite the opposite.

As for the US triggering the global recession, its very possible, a few breakthroughs won't stop what seems like the inevitable. I am just worried, no one is talking about this whole market which is clearly suffering, businesses are dying, banks are closing down, and tons of people are losing their jobs. I really do wonder what is going to happen, in a year or two, with this rate of increasing unemployment.
   

No one can say for sure what will happen to BTC in the event of a major global economic crisis, but the fact is that the whole thing is vulnerable in terms of infrastructure, and by that I mean crypto exchanges that are actually completely under the government's control. They can not kill BTC, but there is always an option to declare it illegal. I don't think that's a realistic option at this point, the total crypto market is actually pretty insignificant (less than $250 billion).

I can see governments declaring crypto illegal, especially in between of a crisis, cause that is when people will resort to going towards crypto, and its pretty much going to look like what China did, except on a global scale.

Where'd you get the info on the world being in a recession for years now? If you're talking about our debt, and things like that that's one thing, but the economy is growing and isn't in a recession right now.

Recession (Defined by Google) - a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

People are always going to be talking about another recession when one happens. We've heard that another recession is coming for every year since 2008, and we're now in 2020 and there are no signs of a recession. The only talking points among people who think one is coming point to the China Trade Deal, other trade deal issues, etc.

Literally for the past 12 years, people have been hitting the alarm bells and saying that the RECESSION IS COMING and how you should pull your money out of your investments and such, people don't understand that in the traditional investments of stocks and bonds and all that you're going to be unable to time the market. Though I must say, a lot of this comes from my interest in traditional banking as well, so yeah.

But I do think that Crypto is going to be a force, but it's going to have to make itself EASY for people. The fiat on ramps have to be easy to work with, people have to have wallets that aren't hard to use, there has to be a USECASE for them, and things along those lines. We can't all just be speculating on Crypto going up, that doesn't help anyone and it doesn't improve adoption.

Here's the thing, even if we're not in a recession (yet), we are on a verge of one: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2019/10/28/here-are-the-countries-on-the-brink-of-recession-going-into-2020/#66402e663017

As for people pulling out of investments, its definitely a bad idea, cause even if we get into a recession, its not going to be there forever. However, with the awful state of the global market, where everything seems wobbly, its just becoming quite a headache to deal with ever changing dynamic market.
 

[chip1994]

I think bitcoin's role is very important in times of economic crisis. Everyone knows that bitcoin is nobody to manage it, it is freely mined and that anyone can keep it anywhere. Have you seen the similarity between bitcoin and gold? even here we can dep our bitcoins on exchanges and trade freely, not bound by anything. The market is always active so many people are now looking to buy more bitcoin to prepare for the upcoming economic downturn.

[criza]

How is the GDP gonna get affected by everything happening, how are countries going to survive recession, and what is to say that we won't suffer through

And for bitcoin, it is going to be relevant in the since that, people will throw their money into it to safe guard it. So this will rise the price of bitcoin in such era or decade.

Yes, because a higher demand for bitcoin makes the supply of bitcoin to decrease drastically leading to an increase in price per bitcoin; higher demand leads to an increase in price. Bitcoin and other crypto currency would play a key role when global currency or fiat moneys are in crisis because of the events happening around the world such as, the war between the country America and Iran.

[TheUltraElite]

I think bitcoin's role is very important in times of economic crisis.

If and only if there is an economic crisis do you think bitcoin will survive its effect? Its price will also fall. That vague popular idea that people will move money to crypto became popular sometime back due to some FUD shilling but it has no casual proof.

Have you seen the similarity between bitcoin and gold?

No. Because there is no simmilarity as such if you consider economic system. They are both investments and carry market risk but that is all.

even here we can dep our bitcoins on exchanges and trade freely, not bound by anything. The market is always active so many people are now looking to buy more bitcoin to prepare for the upcoming economic downturn.

The number of people trading has got no effect on the economic crisis as you state. This is because the total number of users who trade bitcoin are much small than the total number of people who are wall street stock investors. They are the ones who control the rest of the economy and the fraction of it under cryptocurrency is still small to make any difference.

[Ryker1]

Well, you know what I hate the most? The people who solve problems with a band-aid kit. I know you understand. The economic decline is actually there, --it's just the people are being ignored since they don't actually see it. People who control the economics are trying to hide the truth of recession with band-aid/short term and not actually the solution so people wouldn't notice it.

Indeed, Bitcoin has nothing to do with the GDP. Bitcoin is like the 0.000000000000001 x the power of 10 part of the economy. Depression will soon be there so the only choice we have to get ready with the possibility and do not save but hedge instead.

[CarnagexD]

Nobody can deny that bitcoin has changed some things, just to give an example if your bank is a horrible shady bank at least bitcoin offered an alternative to it, if your nation is a bad one (in financial terms) you could buy bitcoins to get away from impending devaluation. Many many reasons why bitcoin became an alternative to people and changed their lives.

However, global economy is just too huge, and I mean really huge, bitcoin could be bigger in market value than some of the worlds smallest nations treasury for example but when you talk about "global" it becomes something even bigger, it becomes a real big gap between where bitcoin is right now and where global economy is at. Of course it has a role in it now, nobody can say bitcoin is nothing but we still have a long way to go as well.

Bitcoin when compared to how huge the global economy is definitely miniscule. But the thing about bitcoin and most established cryotocurrencies in the market is that they all have potential. They have the ability to become something greater than they are right now. People are seeing the current situation of the economy and the environment and is now switching to a fairly greener more consumer-friendly cryptocurrency alternative. Though it is slow, people are adopting bitcoins by the minute as a scapegoat for when the economy becomes so unbearable for the common joe.

[justdimin]

There are "some" proofs off bitcoin surviving during a crisis but its not USA, usually when USA stocks fall and there is a crisis bitcoin price is not affected or even goes down.

However, when back in the day it happened for Cyprus there were people buying crypto like crazy, literally 700k dollars worth of bitcoin was bought from just that island and back in those days 700k purchase in span of few months was HUGE numbers and not like today where its couple hours volume, same happened very recently in Venezuela, people who kept their money in crypto got better and many people with money tried to save their value via crypto as well. Basically if you are a country in economical crisis but not high end nations like USA/UK/China/Germany and what not, you do go towards crypto.

[sheenshane]

It is really impossible for bitcoin to affect the global economy. This industry is like less percent of the industries we have in the globe. It might affect the economy. War is the main cause of global economic depression. So we need to do our best to avoid it to happen.  recension is very impossible if we are talking about cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is also at its early stage and still not yet developed to make an impact on our global economy.

Also, the fact the government is trying to regulate the industry and other crypto business sector. Since the Bitcoin's price went high because they think that it is all about Money Laundry, they were able to avoid the threat by regulating it. I wonder how many whales are crying when they knew the regulation.

[abhiseshakana]

It is really impossible for bitcoin to affect the global economy. This industry is like less percent of the industries we have in the globe. It might affect the economy. War is the main cause of global economic depression. So we need to do our best to avoid it to happen.  recension is very impossible if we are talking about cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is also at its early stage and still not yet developed to make an impact on our global economy.

Also, the fact the government is trying to regulate the industry and other crypto business sector. Since the Bitcoin's price went high because they think that it is all about Money Laundry, they were able to avoid the threat by regulating it. I wonder how many whales are crying when they knew the regulation.

There are many parties who argue that cryptocurrency (bitcoin) is a trend that has not penetrated the real market. Bitcoin is booming because of its blockchain and a series of positive attributes attached to it. Many people assume that if bitcoin is legalized, so the entire world community especially the millennial generation will choose cryptocurrency over digital money.

I agree with you, indeed the value of transactions in the crypto trading market is fantastic, but only a little bitcoin demand touches the real sector. So it is very unlikely that bitcoin will affect the global economy.

The decline in real GDP was the most important indicator and was the determining weight when the recession occurred. The escalation of an increasing trade war between the United States (US) and China has resulted in substantially weak manufacturing and investment activity throughout the world. In 2020, global economic growth is still very fragile. I feel pessimistic, because the phase one US-China trade agreement that was just signed, will not remove tariffs on most US imports from China.

[TheUltraElite]

People who control the economics are trying to hide the truth of recession with band-aid/short term and not actually the solution so people wouldn't notice it.

Problem is that you cannot do any such thing to prevent it from having a bad toll on the people you care about. You can save up money in the form of different assets but does that mean that those assets are not going to fall in value if there is another recession?

Indeed, Bitcoin has nothing to do with the GDP. Bitcoin is like the 0.000000000000001 x the power of 10 part of the economy. Depression will soon be there so the only choice we have to get ready with the possibility and do not save but hedge instead.

How is hedging going to help you combat recession?

I am more of the opinion that recession is a necessary evil. One cannot stop it from happening but will also have a bad effect on the people. Bitcoin though is a very small fraction like you said so having it would not really matter because during a recession even bitcoin become almost un-useable, provided you are living in a country where bitcoin usage is allowed and have used it previously in pre-recession times.

[el kaka22]

What it could provide is to bring the world together financially which has been the motto for a long long time but people ignored for many years in favor of using bitcoin as a method to make more fiat profits. Normally, internet brought the whole world together right? How could you learn about what is going on with Iowa Caucus in democratic nomination from some third world country if the year was 1950?

You wouldn't had any idea there was even a caucus going on. Which means the world is now connected a lot more together thanks to internet. What bitcoin was trying to achieve or may even achieve in the future, is to make sure that information is shared all around the world together thanks to internet, so could finance could be shared thanks to bitcoin, let's hope that could still happen.

[adzino]

It is really impossible for bitcoin to affect the global economy. This industry is like less percent of the industries we have in the globe. It might affect the economy. War is the main cause of global economic depression. So we need to do our best to avoid it to happen.  recension is very impossible if we are talking about cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is also at its early stage and still not yet developed to make an impact on our global economy.

Also, the fact the government is trying to regulate the industry and other crypto business sector. Since the Bitcoin's price went high because they think that it is all about Money Laundry, they were able to avoid the threat by regulating it. I wonder how many whales are crying when they knew the regulation.

Not sure what you are trying to say on the first half of your post. Also i think you meant "recession" not "recension". And what makes you think a country can't go into recession if crypto currencies are used? I think you have little to no knowledge on economics. Recession can take place on any country no matter what monetary system they use. The GDP of a country can fall if something goes wrong inside the country or due to political unrest around the world.
Why would the whales cry because of regulation?

[romeojasmin13]

The recession is coming and our country is trigger here, but I don't believe in The Great Depression II.
What will happen to BTC in this case? Who knows? It may be the world main currency or may become illegal.

[deisik]

And most importantly, how is crypto going to come out of this?

Crypto is going to suffer, probably badly, like very badly

If we will see something like the Great Depression revisited, crypto is going to bite the dust. Indeed, Bitcoin is not going to die but what kind of life will that be? Most people are investing in cryptocurrencies with purely speculative purposes in mind, but if things start to fall apart, everyone and his grandma will be trying to sell out their cryptocurrency stashes to get some cash on hand as it always happens in situations of great economic distress. Our only hope is that things won't come to that, and fears of a global economic meltdown like it happened in 1930's are greatly exaggerated

[TheUltraElite]

If we will see something like the Great Depression revisited, crypto is going to bite the dust. Indeed, Bitcoin is not going to die but what kind of life will that be?

Lets hope that the people who have invested in crypto have not put in their entire life saving, like FOMOed in. But have been diligent enough to keep only a fraction of their entire assets in crypto.

Most people are investing in cryptocurrencies with purely speculative purposes in mind, but if things start to fall apart, everyone and his grandma will be trying to sell out their cryptocurrency stashes to get some cash on hand as it always happens in situations of great economic distress.

And with that will come cheap prices to buy crypto too. If that happens then we might revisit the three digit price charts. But thats not happening right away and at that time buyers would be less considering everyone to put their money in saving up costs and buying more of the bare necessities of life than speculate on a less known currency.

[deisik]

Most people are investing in cryptocurrencies with purely speculative purposes in mind, but if things start to fall apart, everyone and his grandma will be trying to sell out their cryptocurrency stashes to get some cash on hand as it always happens in situations of great economic distress.

And with that will come cheap prices to buy crypto too

But with what means?

If that happens then we might revisit the three digit price charts. But thats not happening right away and at that time buyers would be less considering everyone to put their money in saving up costs and buying more of the bare necessities of life than speculate on a less known currency

That's the whole point

The majority of people will become significantly poorer under such circumstances, while the rich, extra-rich, and super-rich (think Warren Buffett and his likes here) will be buying up real assets, not speculative ones, for example, cheap stocks of companies that are the backbone of the modern economy, sticking to the timeless motto of Baron Nathan Rothschild to "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", or, in Warren Buffett's own terms, "be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”

Times of great tumult turn out to be also times of great opportunity if you are smart enough to turn tables in your favor. Not that I personally believe very much in the aforementioned scenario, just describing the possible developments if it ever comes to that (barring the all-out nuclear war, of course).