Short term bullish run is now over, and it was most likely a failed rally

[windjc]

Lol.

Last time I checked bitcoin was in a 10 year bull trend from .01$ to $8300.

Yeah go right ahead and sell your coins.

Noobs.

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[Latviand]

A picture is worth a thousand words


Now, my advice: look at the price line since October 25 when the price was at 10.4k USD, the trend was never bullish. However it was very possible to make nice money (started several threads to recommend buying at 6.5kish in November and December).

Important price next: 8.5k, we go below and we see 7k most likely again.

Sad but true image. 
Rally has broken and price may decline from here. But I don't agree with your $8.5K mark. It is evident from the chart that break point will be between $7800-8000. As far as price is above $8K, market may move sideways for next few days and may result in new rally if someone inject buy orders into the market.

Some are saying that the increase in the market value of Bitcoin is caused by the tension between US and Iran and the moment it cooled down, the market value of Bitcoin stopped increasing. I would say that it is just coincidence and the market itself is just volatile. The markrt price is now falling, and the bottomline is what would investors do? Will they sell at this point to cut further losses? Or They would stick with the plan of holding? I would say trust onto the process and be patient. Backdrops after an uprise is not new in this industry.

[Leon83]

Studying the typical 60 day cycles in past uptrends I would say a 15% pullback from $9200 is probable.
$7800 in mid february?

[Fatunad]

Studying the typical 60 day cycles in past uptrends I would say a 15% pullback from $9200 is probable.
$7800 in mid february?

It's possible in mid february but every speculations and expectations in the market today is very bullish the chances for that to happen is very slim. If you're looking for a good price to buy im afraid the price today is the best suitable for accumulating more. I will not look for that $7,800 in february because it might be too late and fomo.

[Leon83]

Studying the typical 60 day cycles in past uptrends I would say a 15% pullback from $9200 is probable.
$7800 in mid february?

It's possible in mid february but every speculations and expectations in the market today is very bullish the chances for that to happen is very slim. If you're looking for a good price to buy im afraid the price today is the best suitable for accumulating more. I will not look for that $7,800 in february because it might be too late and fomo.

Good point. $8200 a couple of days ago may well be the higher low.

[worle1bm]

Sad but true image. 
Rally has broken and price may decline from here. But I don't agree with your $8.5K mark. It is evident from the chart that break point will be between $7800-8000. As far as price is above $8K, market may move sideways for next few days and may result in new rally if someone inject buy orders into the market.

Some are saying that the increase in the market value of Bitcoin is caused by the tension between US and Iran and the moment it cooled down, the market value of Bitcoin stopped increasing. I would say that it is just coincidence and the market itself is just volatile. The markrt price is now falling, and the bottomline is what would investors do? Will they sell at this point to cut further losses? Or They would stick with the plan of holding? I would say trust onto the process and be patient. Backdrops after an uprise is not new in this industry.

Yes, you are right. The relation between Bitcoin price increase and tension between US and Iran is just coincidental. There is no reason why the issue between these two countries will effect price in any way.

As I was saying, as far as price remain above $8K then we don't have to worry because by reading chart we can see that the psychological barrier for traders is $7850. If price goes below that, traders will start panicking and dump their coins which will cause further fall in value. But market resisted around $8300 which is now having positive impact on price and price is once again up by 1.5% today.

[mahilchii]

Bitcoin prices have dropped to  $8500 maybe there will not be bullish again? I do not have a technical analysis of this bitcoin because bitcoin is difficult to guess in the future price.
Will it be possible to return to $7000? even though you have failed the rally but it is only at the beginning of the year there is hope for the future to rally again and can see the movement in the market.

Seems like bull run might not happen, but we can expect a massive change after 2 or 3 months from now. Halving is a big hope for rise in crypto currency let's see how things go, I agree the rally has broken but there will be a change in few more days the price will increase for sure in few more days.

[hirngespenst]

Yes, there is no sign for the bull run in this year yet, maybe halving can change the scenario but still, no one is sure about it. I thought this time Bitcoin price will hoit 10K USD but the race stopped at 9100 USD and then it dumped by 1000 USD already. I don't think this is because of the Chinese Lunar year as the Coronavirus attacked there so there is no party in China at this moment, so, the dump was normal too. I hope everything will turn into positive again.

[Wexlike]

Yes, there is no sign for the bull run in this year yet, maybe halving can change the scenario but still, no one is sure about it. I thought this time Bitcoin price will hoit 10K USD but the race stopped at 9100 USD and then it dumped by 1000 USD already. I don't think this is because of the Chinese Lunar year as the Coronavirus attacked there so there is no party in China at this moment, so, the dump was normal too. I hope everything will turn into positive again.

20% increase is no sign of a bull spring ? You better don't tell that to traditional investors.

One of the reason investors like "Long Only" funds is they are trading the market based on a broader trend. Yes trend is much different than momentum and it is important to understand this.

In order to spot a broader term trend we look at the structure of shorter term trends, and determine whether the market is bullish or bearish . Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend .

[exstasie]

20% increase is no sign of a bull spring ? You better don't tell that to traditional investors.

One of the reason investors like "Long Only" funds is they are trading the market based on a broader trend. Yes trend is much different than momentum and it is important to understand this.

In order to spot a broader term trend we look at the structure of shorter term trends, and determine whether the market is bullish or bearish . Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend.

Let's close that monthly candle first.

The bulls still have a lot of work to do to prove this case. It's still all lower highs, we're still below the 200-day MA, and it's too early to say there's an uptrend on the monthly yet. We definitely need to see a few more bullish confirmations in the coming weeks before we can celebrate and declare the bears wrong.

[windjc]

20% increase is no sign of a bull spring ? You better don't tell that to traditional investors.

One of the reason investors like "Long Only" funds is they are trading the market based on a broader trend. Yes trend is much different than momentum and it is important to understand this.

In order to spot a broader term trend we look at the structure of shorter term trends, and determine whether the market is bullish or bearish . Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend.

Let's close that monthly candle first.

The bulls still have a lot of work to do to prove this case. It's still all lower highs, we're still below the 200-day MA, and it's too early to say there's an uptrend on the monthly yet. We definitely need to see a few more bullish confirmations in the coming weeks before we can celebrate and declare the bears wrong.

Bears have A LOT more to prove than bulls at this point. We made at HL at 6500, broke through a major trendline, are 3 months from halving (before which we always get a "buy the rumor" pump) and are in a 10 year BULL TREND.

Bears literally have to do things that have never occurred in the history of BTC to confirm a down trend continuation.

[STT]

Long term we are searching for the bottom pricing which many presume will be a fair bit higher then 2019 lows.   That gives us alot of space to reach downwards even while in a bull trend.
   I think we form lows in a day but then it must confirm on a week even monthly bar close maybe twice before the market gives away and finds higher to be the path of least resistance.



See this is the weekly bar view, from my pov its quite reasonable to go back and touch 8000 and be totally bullish

[error08]

What happened in Oct 25-26 was a sudden pump within 24 hours, not a bullish run. But take a look at the bigger picture, bitcoin still on the bullish run compared to the early phase of last year at $3900 and this year bitcoin price starts at $7200. It's not a short term but always perceives in the long term, as now the price gradually increases over $8K and the trend in the market still trying to break the $10K level.

[Wexlike]

*skip*
Very simple and on the monthly chart, it is clear we have a broader term bullish trend.

Let's close that monthly candle first.

The bulls still have a lot of work to do to prove this case. It's still all lower highs, we're still below the 200-day MA, and it's too early to say there's an uptrend on the monthly yet. We definitely need to see a few more bullish confirmations in the coming weeks before we can celebrate and declare the bears wrong.

Bears have A LOT more to prove than bulls at this point. We made at HL at 6500, broke through a major trendline, are 3 months from halving (before which we always get a "buy the rumor" pump) and are in a 10 year BULL TREND.

Bears literally have to do things that have never occurred in the history of BTC to confirm a down trend continuation.

Yeah, sorry exstasie but I'm totally on windjc side here. I bought everything I could in the $8.5->$6.7 drop in November in anticipation of the forming bull and the large support around the $6k levels. The thing is, many bears(and normal investors!) were selling way too early on the flashy run up from $3.5/4k to $13.8k below or around the $6k area, just because many many people were thinking that the resistance will be super strong based on the multiple times we bounced of it in the 2018 bear. And how wrong they were (not excluding me, I'm still biting my ass for selling too much below $6k). Even Masterluc was so very wrong (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Ybv5PkjN-Almost-at-resistance/).

That is why I didn't expect the market to give them a chance to redo their mistake. Of course we're still in unclear waters yet and the monthly candle needs a few more day. But I think the current price direction favors a bullish outlook.

[windjc]

Long term we are searching for the bottom pricing which many presume will be a fair bit higher then 2019 lows.   That gives us alot of space to reach downwards even while in a bull trend.
   I think we form lows in a day but then it must confirm on a week even monthly bar close maybe twice before the market gives away and finds higher to be the path of least resistance.



See this is the weekly bar view, from my pov its quite reasonable to go back and touch 8000 and be totally bullish

We just broke D200 again. Everyday bear hopium just keeps losing bricks in its facade.

[secone]

What happened in Oct 25-26 was a sudden pump within 24 hours, not a bullish run. But take a look at the bigger picture, bitcoin still on the bullish run compared to the early phase of last year at $3900 and this year bitcoin price starts at $7200. It's not a short term but always perceives in the long term, as now the price gradually increases over $8K and the trend in the market still trying to break the $10K level.

agree with you the bitcoin price should be strong at level $10.000 , the halving will come in this year, im sure the price will still strong and price target at $10k

[Hippocrypto]

What happened in Oct 25-26 was a sudden pump within 24 hours, not a bullish run. But take a look at the bigger picture, bitcoin still on the bullish run compared to the early phase of last year at $3900 and this year bitcoin price starts at $7200. It's not a short term but always perceives in the long term, as now the price gradually increases over $8K and the trend in the market still trying to break the $10K level.

agree with you the bitcoin price should be strong at level $10.000 , the halving will come in this year, im sure the price will still strong and price target at $10k

Hopefully our predictions would gather a positive vibes right now, because it's been so long that cryptocurrency asset had been stagnant and not moving including other coins that became shitty. As we all know, crypto has been a huge part on our lives since we prefer to hold even if there was no growing market.
I dreamed that one day there's a great news that surprise us in order regain our previous losses from trading.

[exstasie]

The bulls still have a lot of work to do to prove this case. It's still all lower highs, we're still below the 200-day MA, and it's too early to say there's an uptrend on the monthly yet. We definitely need to see a few more bullish confirmations in the coming weeks before we can celebrate and declare the bears wrong.

Bears have A LOT more to prove than bulls at this point. We made at HL at 6500, broke through a major trendline, are 3 months from halving (before which we always get a "buy the rumor" pump) and are in a 10 year BULL TREND.

You act like I'm a perma bear predicting triple digits.

Establishing the first higher high in 6+ months and breaking above the 200-day MA are very basic conventional confirmations that the downtrend is actually over. I'm just trying to avoid counting my chickens before they're hatched.

That doesn't mean I'm bearish: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.40

[Images21]

While you are spreading FUD and call it a failed rally, Bitcoin continued to break resistance and shoot high.

Bitcoin has successfully shattered $9,000. We are now on our way to a 5-digit price. There is only success in sight for Bitcoin.

[Bossian]

Just bumping this to say I was wrong with this chart and prediction.

I saw a ceiling around 9k, it was my personal target and that's why I sold, but I didn't see 10.5k coming. I was surprised by this move.

I believe it's important to be humble and acknowledge when you were wrong. Stay humble and learn everyday.

Best of luck!