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Author Topic: Yet another analyst  (Read 3005 times)
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exstasie
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December 18, 2019, 10:56:18 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (3)
 #41

After a shakeout to lower lows, the market has another opportunity for reversal:



As I've said in the past, we need to pay attention to where the market doesn't want to go. Triggering a daily Bollinger Band squeeze (range expansion) typically entails a new trend. In the case of the breakdown 2 days ago, a downtrend. A headfake (failed breakout where price quickly returns inside the bands) often occurs before a violent move in the opposite direction.

There are multiple other bullish factors here. The bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart is hard to deny. Momentum/RSI divergence is also present and now confirmed. There's now a good chance for a W-bottom/double bottom.

I will update with a new mid-term EW count once the chart is more clear.

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December 31, 2019, 09:06:22 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #42

Still waiting for more clarity. The weekly chart still shows massive bullish potential, but the daily still shows lots of weakness. OBV is still on the floor and bulls failed to reach the H&S neckline here, painting all lower highs:



Despite the slow bleeding look to the chart, experience has taught me not to be overly confident in the bears in these situations. Especially with sentiment so abysmal and the halving right around the corner.

Still, I need to see more evidence to say the market has truly bottomed out. We need to break above the downtrend line from the $13,800s (currently in the $8,600s) and the October pivot high ($10,300s) before getting too excited.

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January 03, 2020, 07:11:33 AM
 #43

Very nice spring on the 4-hour chart, on good volume:



There is a bullish engulfing forming on the daily too. That dip to $6,850 may have been a higher low before bullish continuation.

Looking for a break above $7,700 here. That will signal a move to $8,500-$8,700 to test the 20-week MA and the downtrend line mentioned in the last post. You can do it, bulls!

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January 03, 2020, 11:00:26 AM
 #44

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214437.0

Please do share another analyse ^ Cheesy

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January 03, 2020, 12:46:58 PM
 #45

Very nice spring on the 4-hour chart, on good volume:

*snip*

There is a bullish engulfing forming on the daily too. That dip to $6,850 may have been a higher low before bullish continuation.

Looking for a break above $7,700 here. That will signal a move to $8,500-$8,700 to test the 20-week MA and the downtrend line mentioned in the last post. You can do it, bulls!

It is about time that we revisit the upper band of the descending channel. Would line up very well with your 20-week MA resistance.
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January 03, 2020, 08:55:45 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), El duderino_ (3)
 #46



I'm loving the look of this chart so far. Given the price action of the past two months, I'd have expected it to wick down hard by now. Instead, this looks like impulsive bullish form and perhaps even a running flat correction. Momentum is recharging nicely even on higher lows.

Running flats in Wave 2 pullbacks often signal that buyers are chasing the market up. This is only an hourly chart so I don't want to build expectations too much, but this is honestly the most bullish price action I've seen in months. This is what charts look like before they explode to the upside.

Conservatively, a break of $7,700 would target the $8,500 area mentioned above. If we really are in a new impulsive uptrend like I'm pondering, then we might shoot right to $9K+ and then consolidate around/above the broken downtrend line. Support becomes resistance and all that.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214437.0

Please do share another analyse ^ Cheesy

Will do! I'm glad I have until the 10th because the next few days are crucial. Let's see if this setup plays out. Smiley

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January 04, 2020, 12:46:27 AM
 #47

If this action would really set up some crucial moves... then the thread opening was of good timing Cheesy

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January 04, 2020, 05:19:19 PM
 #48

Hope your box-range isn't gone by when your TA played out : Undecided

If so please post full thought on the time frame etc

cheers

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January 04, 2020, 06:55:11 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #49

Hope your box-range isn't gone by when your TA played out : Undecided

If so please post full thought on the time frame etc

cheers

Haha, no worries! If it were a "highest price before x date" game I would probably stake my guess ASAP. Guessing the exact price on an exact date is harder to pinpoint. Much more chance involved so I'm not too worried about the exact box. It's all in good fun!



There's one of them nasty wicks. Undecided

We're still in a sideways range, no bleeding yet. But definitely not the look I was hoping for this weekend. Are we in for more painful chop? That's what the December-March bottom was like last year. Seemingly endless slow painful chop, and so when the market had finally bottomed, everyone was in disbelief......

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January 04, 2020, 11:26:01 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #50

Traders I watch are waiting with bated breath to see if we break out here. The market is near a big decision point.
https://twitter.com/drei4u/status/1213563106602799105
https://twitter.com/btcbite/status/1213573575854170114

Nice intraday recovery from that failure candle earlier:



The way that buyers aren't allowing follow through on dips is bullish. We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.

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January 05, 2020, 01:56:55 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #51

*snip*
We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.

So $7.8k is the level to watch ? I'm more convinced if we break out of the channel at >9k. Until then it is still a good trading range for scalping, imho.
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January 05, 2020, 07:52:00 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), El duderino_ (1)
 #52

*snip*
We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.
So $7.8k is the level to watch ? I'm more convinced if we break out of the channel at >9k. Until then it is still a good trading range for scalping, imho.

I'm talking short term. The last couple months looks like an accumulation range but we obviously haven't broken the long term downtrend yet. So I'm looking for baby steps here.

The daily upper Bollinger Band = $7,600. Monthly pivots around $7,700 and $7,800. Clearing those resistances should trigger a lot of buys.

The top of the descending channel (on Bitstamp) is around $8,700 and dropping. The weekly 20-MA is in the $8,500s. So I figure that's the first resistance zone to expect. It would be reasonable to take some profit there and re-assess.

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January 06, 2020, 10:50:33 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #53

The way that buyers aren't allowing follow through on dips is bullish. We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.

Here it comes.....



I love the way bulls are pushing into the daily close here. It's almost sure to trigger a Bollinger Band squeeze now. "New Money Monday" in full effect!

Breaking $7,800 = all higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart. So I expect a last minute dump attempt from bears to prevent that, but buyers have been absorbing every dump so far. Looking good!

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January 06, 2020, 11:19:31 PM
 #54

The way that buyers aren't allowing follow through on dips is bullish. We just need to break the December high and this thing will blast off.

Here it comes.....



I love the way bulls are pushing into the daily close here. It's almost sure to trigger a Bollinger Band squeeze now. "New Money Monday" in full effect!

Breaking $7,800 = all higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart. So I expect a last minute dump attempt from bears to prevent that, but buyers have been absorbing every dump so far. Looking good!
Do you think Bitcoin will go higher in the next 1-2 Year ? I watched the TA from @sgbett and he is saying Bitcoin will drop. I want to buy again because the last time I buyed it was $3K.Do you think it's a good time to buy again or should i wait ?
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January 07, 2020, 04:07:47 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #55

It's looking very strong now. I was expecting us to go somewhere between 8.3 and 5.5k after breaking 7.7 resistance, but the buyers got tired and slowed down right at 8k, which isn't an important level. What are your thoughts? Are we going to hold here or go back to 7.5k?

It's also interesting how this bullish move took 3 consecutive pumps to develop, with the next always bigger than the previous one.
Since January 5 we had a bullish pressure starting at night (CET), with the big candles forming at 2 am (Jan 5), 3 am (Jan 6) and 11 pm (Jan 7).
Why did these moves happen at around the same time 3 days straight?
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January 07, 2020, 07:42:06 AM
Merited by darkangel11 (1), El duderino_ (1)
 #56

Do you think Bitcoin will go higher in the next 1-2 Year ? I watched the TA from @sgbett and he is saying Bitcoin will drop. I want to buy again because the last time I buyed it was $3K.Do you think it's a good time to buy again or should i wait ?

I think sgbett is misapplying the 2014-2015 fractal, trying to force it on the current chart despite all the divergences. In my opinion, the mid-$6,000s last month were probably the lowest we'll see.

It's looking very strong now. I was expecting us to go somewhere between 8.3 and 5.5k after breaking 7.7 resistance, but the buyers got tired and slowed down right at 8k, which isn't an important level. What are your thoughts? Are we going to hold here or go back to 7.5k?

I don't see any signs of weakness yet. I think $8K is just a local intraday top, not the end of this run.

Slow and steady wins the race. The market is building support as it moves up rather than shooting its wad in a fast short squeeze. That bodes well for a healthy new uptrend.

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January 07, 2020, 10:45:08 AM
Merited by exstasie (1), El duderino_ (1)
 #57

Just stumbled on this, nice points.

Personally i'm looking at Chaikin money Flow as historically it used to give a decent BUY signal on weekly TF when breaking out its dynamic resistance after painting a pocket under zero, e.g.



Yet Bitcoin is now close to a very delicate area: top of range and  just below weekly MA20 (red).





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January 07, 2020, 11:39:54 AM
 #58

Just stumbled on this, nice points.

Personally i'm looking at Chaikin money Flow as historically it used to give a decent BUY signal on weekly TF when breaking out its dynamic resistance after painting a pocket under zero, e.g.



Yet Bitcoin is now close to a very delicate area: top of range and  just below weekly MA20 (red).






There is a decent Buy signal ? If you look at the Chart there is a EMA10/50 Bearish Cross. This is not a good signal or not ? The last time we had an Bearish Cross was at June 2019 and the Price just moved a litte bit Up and then we fall down
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January 07, 2020, 01:59:50 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #59

There is a decent Buy signal ? If you look at the Chart there is a EMA10/50 Bearish Cross. This is not a good signal or not ? The last time we had an Bearish Cross was at June 2019 and the Price just moved a litte bit Up and then we fall down

Sorry mate, i do respect your opinion, but you're making quite a bit of confusion here.

About the buy signal, that's referred to the first chart ( Chaikin Money flow ).
You can cross-check candlestick chart to see the past outcome.

About the second chart ( candlestick chart ): no EMAs nor any EMA10 are painted there.
These are simple, not exponential moving averages.

What you actually see in the chart are weekly MA20 (red), MA50 (blue), MA100 (green) and MA200 (brown).
Both MA200 and MA50 are rising, MA100 seems about to flatten. Only MA20 is clearly falling.

Speaking of what you define a  "EMA10/50 Bearish Cross", that's actually a MA50/MA100 "bullish" crossover ( i hate the terms "death" or "golden", but theoretically it would be the latter ).

Last time we got this kind of "bullish" weekly crossover was not on June 2019, but rather in May 2016, almost 4 years ago ( marked below with a black up arrow ).
Basically it marked the inception of the latter bull run, which saw price stabilizing over MA20 (red).

I think the simple chart below is pretty self explanatory:



Basically -so far- price is making sort of a rhyme with 2015/2016.

The whole point is nowadays MA50/100 crossover was a bit on the weak side and MA20 is still over price, so it's now acting as resistance.
This latter fact is what i thought worth reporting in my previous message.

For now i can't call this scenario bearish, will wait for test of resistance in order to make further considerations.
All in all i think that here VOLUME ( or LACK of ) will be the key.




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January 07, 2020, 07:49:36 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (1)
 #60

Yet Bitcoin is now close to a very delicate area: top of range and  just below weekly MA20 (red).



Yep, I'm looking at that descending channel line and 20-week MA as a potential local top. Bears will probably try to make a stand there. The way we're slowly curving into a parabolic shape on the 4-hour (on solid volume) makes me think we might just bust through towards $10K. More likely, we'll need to consolidate off that resistance and build support first. That will also allow the market to retain impulsive form, which is bullish for continuation after a pullback. Here's one idea in that vein:



4-hour OBV is showing some balls for the first time in a long time, which is nice to see. This local count is progressing nicely. I'm still looking for a push towards $8,500+, perhaps after another intraday consolidation:



For now i can't call this scenario bearish, will wait for test of resistance in order to make further considerations.
All in all i think that here VOLUME ( or LACK of ) will be the key.

Yes, we need to break through that descending channel with authority before making big plans for a new bull market. Smiley

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