The first signal that 2020 might be the comeback of crypto!

[WickCrypto]

Hey everyone, I like to keep a monthly overview of how bitcoin is doing. I know many of you may have stopped trading over the last year as we’ve had so many consecutive horrible months. Trading with a negative bias makes trading in crypto even harder than it normally already is. That is, considering you only go for long positions.

Starting in 2020, we’ve seen a fantastic month for bitcoin with an increase of 30.59%. On average altcoins gained 26.52% in value (when looking at their USD value). Also speaking from personal experience, trading over January was much easier than the previous months.

If you are considering getting back into crypto, this might be a great time. Make sure you keep an eye out on the market!

If you want to get more information over how January 2020 is doing compared to 2019 check out this in-depth analysis I wrote at https://www.100-eyes.com/blog/monthly_update/2020/01


Here you can see the average performance of altcoins over the previous twelve months. As you can see January 2020 was the second best month and only the second positive month since April 2019!:

[pooya87]

anybody who stopped trading during the past 2 years and wants to start again this year must not do it and should stay away from trading. because someone who can not make profit from all market conditions is not a trader, they are gamblers who rely on constant pumps to make profit and since that is not possible they should not risk their money or they will end up losing their money again and again until they are broke.

i also disagree with the chart you posted. 2019 has been a fantastic altcoin year since we saw lot sand lots of shitcoin pumps like we always do and real traders have been making huge profit by taking advantage of those pumps and "trading" altcoins instead of just bag-holding them hoping for long term rise that will never happen.

[Jating]

Hmmm, for me that best time to make a comeback is during crypto's pullback because the price is so cheap. Just look at bitcoin today, almost touching 5 digits again and the last lower lows was like $3k. So if you have invested that time then its already 3x by just holding.

Altcoin market is also recovering, might be a good time to join the bandwagon again early 2020 because once the market had recovered and go on a full blown bull run, regrets!!.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

anybody who stopped trading during the past 2 years and wants to start again this year must not do it and should stay away from trading. because someone who can not make profit from all market conditions is not a trader, they are gamblers who rely on constant pumps to make profit and since that is not possible they should not risk their money or they will end up losing their money again and again until they are broke.

Although I see reasoning in what you have just said but I want to look at it from this angle, every traders knows when it's profitable for him/her to trade. The smart and more experience ones can trade in any condition and still come out profitable. For those those who aren't yet that experience, they have the right to take a break when they observe the market isn't favouring them then maybe engaging in demo practice to perfect or develop new trading strategy.

What favours Mr A might not favour Mr B, but as far as both traders are putting in their very best, analyzing and studying the market to make prediction of price movement and not mere gambling on speculation of others than choosing a time that best suit them to trade isn't that bad.

Concerning the OP assumption, hope you do understand that January had various positive news like Ethereum software upgrade spreading round the community and 2020 in general is assumed to be a very positive year for bitcoin due to the hype of halving block reward and other benefits that follows like price increase, supply decreased etc so the price increase in January is just a mere reaction probably caused by FOMO as enthusiast are buying coins in preparation for the hype to kick in.

[mindrust]

Zap Launches Strike, An Instant Fiat to Lightning Payment App

Stuff like this didn't exist before. If you are expecting another mega altcoin pump like it happened in 2017, it may never happen again.

Now it is possible to get onto LN directly from USD, I don't see any use case for those cheap payment coins.

[pooya87]

anybody who stopped trading during the past 2 years and wants to start again this year must not do it and should stay away from trading. because someone who can not make profit from all market conditions is not a trader, they are gamblers who rely on constant pumps to make profit and since that is not possible they should not risk their money or they will end up losing their money again and again until they are broke.

Although I see reasoning in what you have just said but I want to look at it from this angle, every traders knows when it's profitable for him/her to trade. The smart and more experience ones can trade in any condition and still come out profitable. For those those who aren't yet that experience, they have the right to take a break when they observe the market isn't favouring them then maybe engaging in demo practice to perfect or develop new trading strategy.

What favours Mr A might not favour Mr B, but as far as both traders are putting in their very best, analyzing and studying the market to make prediction of price movement and not mere gambling on speculation of others than choosing a time that best suit them to trade isn't that bad.

it depends on how you define "favorite market conditions". for most people it is defined as price going only upwards. that is not even realistic that is why i call them gamblers. but for a real trader, a good market condition is what they can "predict" and it is not necessarily about going up or down. with that definition even 2018 was a good year because dumps were all expected and a trader could make profit from them. but end of 2017 was a terrible market even though price was going up because it was unpredictable.

Concerning the OP assumption, hope you do understand that January had various positive news like Ethereum software upgrade spreading round the community and 2020 in general is assumed to be a very positive year for bitcoin due to the hype of halving block reward and other benefits that follows like price increase, supply decreased etc so the price increase in January is just a mere reaction probably caused by FOMO as enthusiast are buying coins in preparation for the hype to kick in.

regarding ethereum, there has always been hypes around about numerous things and none of them could prevent the dump over the past 26 months.
as for bitcoin, price is already up >200% from its bottom and is constantly rising too. i see a lot of hype coming due to halving but that could mean a lot more dumps for altcoins since whenever bitcoin price has gone up in the past, altcoins get dumped.

[WickCrypto]

anybody who stopped trading during the past 2 years and wants to start again this year must not do it and should stay away from trading. because someone who can not make profit from all market conditions is not a trader, they are gamblers who rely on constant pumps to make profit and since that is not possible they should not risk their money or they will end up losing their money again and again until they are broke.

I believe this cannot be said without adding some nuance. From my time trading forex, I agree that in principle a good trader would have to be able to make money in all conditions. HOWEVER, to me this is mostly due to the fact that you can go both long and short on all pairs. Going short in forex is extremely normal and a highly common activity.

Yes, if you can go long and short you should be able to make money in all market conditions. Since most exchanges only offer long positions, and the few that do offer short positions only do it for a few coins, it is extremely difficult to make money if you know the chances on a decline in price are constantly higher than an increase in price.

Can you make money with going LONG?
Sideways: yes.
Uptrend: oh, yes.
Slight downtrend: maybe
Strong downtrend: very hard.

[hugeblack]

If the only reason to return again is that bitcoin halving will lead to $ 20,000 levels, you doing it wrong.
Everyone expects the price to rise, so we will likely see reverse results. Especially since there are a lot of stable coins that will work against any crazy highs.
Positive performance during January is not an indication of price evaluation for long periods or even until the end of this year. Perhaps it is better to make some calculated investments during the first quarter of this year because it will appear safer than the rest of the months.

[pooya87]

anybody who stopped trading during the past 2 years and wants to start again this year must not do it and should stay away from trading. because someone who can not make profit from all market conditions is not a trader, they are gamblers who rely on constant pumps to make profit and since that is not possible they should not risk their money or they will end up losing their money again and again until they are broke.

I believe this cannot be said without adding some nuance. From my time trading forex, I agree that in principle a good trader would have to be able to make money in all conditions. HOWEVER, to me this is mostly due to the fact that you can go both long and short on all pairs. Going short in forex is extremely normal and a highly common activity.

Yes, if you can go long and short you should be able to make money in all market conditions. Since most exchanges only offer long positions, and the few that do offer short positions only do it for a few coins, it is extremely difficult to make money if you know the chances on a decline in price are constantly higher than an increase in price.

Can you make money with going LONG?
Sideways: yes.
Uptrend: oh, yes.
Slight downtrend: maybe
Strong downtrend: very hard.

you actually don't have to short to make profit from a dumping market. it is possibly by only being familiar with 2 market movements: recovery after a reverse bubble^TM and attempts to pump the altcoins after their death leading to dead cat bounces.

Exhibit A (ethereum dump during second half of 2017 from ~June to December and its dead cat!)
this is during the time where bitcoin was bullish and altcoins were declining every day. as you can see every time there is a sharp dump in ETH price, it is followed by a "correction" reversal that could be used to make small but good profit by simply buying the dip. and the reversal is long enough for a trader to make sure it was a "dip" and join in the follow up short term pump as long as he pulls out just as fast to avoid the next dump.



Exhibit B (ethereum failed attempt at pumping during 2018)
this is during the time when bitcoin price was nearly stable without any moves either up or down.
as it can be seen after a long time of dumping where it slows down a small accumulation (~1 month) starts and then an attempt to pump it is started. since dumping was slowed down before the pump could be long and the profit was good (max 55% in ~1 month) but it continues dumping again as soon as bitcoin price drops in January.



Exhibit C (the most recent failed attempt at pumping ethereum)
this is the time when bitcoin price was stable at $10k for about a month and it ends with the ETH dump at the same time as bitcoin dropped below $10k again



the overall dump of these 3 is the current -88% but as you can see during all the dumps there has been a lot of profit without shorting!
and that is the smallest example i posted here. there are other shitcoins better than ETH that had the same trend but with a much bigger profit. for example those that got pumped 1000% during their dead cat bounces.

[mirrasel]

I also think this is the high time to come back. I guess the price of BTC will increase more after halving! Let's wait and see. Thanks for the overview.

[buwaytress]

It's not the first signal actually, but yeah I'm hearing the normal influencers touting the fact that the bull run is well and truly here!

I actually started thinking an actual swing was really on the cards when Bitcoin price sustained some decent volume ABOVE the 200-MA (something I saw also on exstasie's TA charting) and that's always been something serious for me.

I'm still not sold on the idea that 2020 is the moon year, I still love me slowburn days... and I'm siding with hugeblack here. Markets tend to prove wishful thinking wrong.

[Wexnident]

It isn't really rather advisable to enter the market after seeing a 30% increase in price in a single month. I mean, if traders were only able to take advantage of prices growing, then there's minimal avenues that traders could take to profit. Especially if the reason they quit was because of sudden dumps and pumps, then I wouldn't really bother entering the market again. It's a matter of willingness to trade even when all hell goes loose, and being able to fully adapt to it.

As for altcoin booming, it probably only shows a temporary response to Bitcoin entering the bull run. Just comparing it with what happened to last year as said in your chart, The time span of Bitcoin booming to $13k coincides with the timespan where altcoin went down for a few months. Could also happen for this years next few months.

[Maslate]

I also think this is the high time to come back. I guess the price of BTC will increase more after halving! Let's wait and see. Thanks for the overview.

I don't think this is the best time to come back in trading. Let's just see if the next months will make this market more stable and if the price continues to level up, then trading would be profitable this time. Remember how volatile the market is, we should not be as confident like before because this might be another market trick.

[bitcoin31]

Since 2020 started the bitcoin price doing pretty well and I wamnt to continue what is happening right now to the market.
Maybe this is the sinal of starting again the bull run just like in 2017 in the January it is same what happening right now.
I really like $20,000 this year and now I said it is really possible to happen because we saw the good movement hapoening on market.

[Sadlife]

This is indeed interesting times for bitcoin it has manage to get a monthly close which normally it doesn't get because january it always been bad and always negative for bitcoin but now it has manage 32% price gain.
The momentum has surely change to the upside, the only thing left before we go extremely bullish is for the price to break $9500 key resistance.

[beerlover]

There are few problems with the notion that "bitcoin has been doing better, you should come back to trading", I mean for starters you should be buying when everything is looking horrible and selling when it is like today, not the other way around, if people come in after the 26%+ increase, that kinda means that they are buying at high and what is the next advice? Selling at low?

If they have stayed out for so long, they should keep staying out a little while longer and wait for a drop, my understanding has always been to buy or get in at the moment when it looks like reaching the furthest down it will reach in recent memory.

Plus it wasn't doing that bad neither, it didn't suddenly started to do this well, we were around $7k to $9k for 6 months and we are literally there once again, so its not really shocking.

[rijaljun]

anybody who stopped trading during the past 2 years and wants to start again this year must not do it and should stay away from trading. because someone who can not make profit from all market conditions is not a trader, they are gamblers who rely on constant pumps to make profit and since that is not possible they should not risk their money or they will end up losing their money again and again until they are broke.

Eh? A bit disagree with stopping one, I feel like not able to make profit in the hard condition doesn't mean you shouldn't take the chance to make profit from 'easy' condition. I mean, not everyone can learn trading easily, for some of them might take years to make profit from a specific condition and during the way they may see the market condition changes.

[Sebas.tian]

Although the signals for the coming back of altcoins have actually been trending around the news but, we shouldn't be so quick to concludes that; its will be 100% come like before. We all know what leads to the altcoins outbreak in 2017 which we are still watching to come through. Many investors lost their investment after the hype of 2017, they will find it difficult to come back for another round of hype, but the good thing here is that; they have all learnt their lessons.

There's are possibility of many traders to surface before the hype comes back 2020, although, for those of.UA who have been doing active trade will still have more chances to hit before the runaway traders who will come back for the hustle.

[barbara44]

Hmmm, for me that best time to make a comeback is during crypto's pullback because the price is so cheap. Just look at bitcoin today, almost touching 5 digits again and the last lower lows was like $3k. So if you have invested that time then its already 3x by just holding.

Altcoin market is also recovering, might be a good time to join the bandwagon again early 2020 because once the market had recovered and go on a full blown bull run, regrets!!.

Most of the people or investors regret once they see the price touching their expectations but yet they did never invest at the point they feel only because they were too afraid to get into the coin at that movement. Fear should be controlled the same way we might control our risk. Even at the times when bitcoins were somewhat close to $3k they had to face some major pumps and dumps which might have made a lot of people to think that the price for bitcoins might even cross those limits and might be hard to recover which made them stay far from getting into.

But, for those people who afforded to make some research were the ones who got in at the correct time and now are bearing sweet fruits for their risk.

[Ryker1]

Well, I genuinely agree with this. But just because the price is going high does mean that trading is the best option and the former traders must return trading. It's a different story. Even though the price goes high, you might still lose your assets in trading. Leaving your coin is the best idea, I guess but of course, --capital is the really a must. I am very much excited about the bitcoin to rise again. I've been waiting for the moment for bitcoin to rise again and recover from the bearish market. Indeed, I know it will happen this year and no signs are needed. Facts are facts.