Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction

[Shinpako09]

He is full of pride huh. Up until now, he is still holding on that bearish prediction or maybe he can't accept that his prediction is wrong and goes the other way. Btc falling to $4k this year is very unlikely to happen. The price seems doing fine and reaching a price point every month. More likely, the price will perform better after halving simply because history repeat itself especially if we pass $15k, by that time it's really safe to say that new ATH will be set sooner.

[criza]

Every people are entitled with their own opinions about what would be the standing of Bitcoin in the future. We could not say that someone is right because, no one could really tell what would happen in the future, what we all could do is to try and make our best guess and learn from others opinion also. But for me, the possibility that Bitcoin would go into the dump is little while it could happen but not that massive. As the current situation dictates, the value of Bitcoin falls back to the $9k-$10k range. But, I believe it is only one last correction before the Bull run happens.

[KTChampions]

Nothing interesting in this article! Except that Tone Vays stands by his prediction, there are no other arguments about why he believes that Bitcoin can drop to 4k. It would be a huge drop, for more than 50%, and just before the halving when we expect hype? To me this drop sounds impossible, I think price will drop but to 8k, or around that. ~

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

[STT]

No we have to say 4000 by any account is not normal, not likely to happen and would have to be caused by something unexplained currently and beyond any normal set of expectations.    To put it simply, the 4k price target ignores all kinds of support and indicators as to price direction long term.    Volatility is possible both in BTC and Dollar or any other currency of course but this is very high on richter scale and would relate to extreme events most likely.

So 4000 is below the 200 week moving average, that was near to the bottom of early 2019 and to cross it now would be surprising after we got such a high peak following that bottom.   The last time we broke such a measure was late 2015, more then 4 years ago and alot of things have changed since there.
    Tone is stating something less then 5% possible as if it were just another number on a dart board, make your prediction but he better lay out an entire thesis not casually state such an extreme otherwise it makes little sense at present.   He can give any prediction but to not recognize the gravity of his own words could easily lose him credibility.

[TheAndy500]

Nothing interesting in this article! Except that Tone Vays stands by his prediction, there are no other arguments about why he believes that Bitcoin can drop to 4k. It would be a huge drop, for more than 50%, and just before the halving when we expect hype? To me this drop sounds impossible, I think price will drop but to 8k, or around that. ~

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

I think that it will be up to miners to decide what happens. If they find the costs of upgrading equipment too high and risky, they can start selling BTC accumulated so far. I'm sure at least a few mines have collected enough BTC to call them whales. If even one of them decides to sell everything and close the business, it can easily fall by 50%.
At the moment, there is an interesting situation, because we see declines in the market and large purchase offers disappear. I think we are in a time of danger of a very large drop. By tomorrow the price almost for sure will fall, we just don't known how much will fall and whether it will cause a flash crash.. I'm affraid that it is very possible, that till tomorrow we will see at least -15%

[KTChampions]

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

~By tomorrow the price almost for sure will fall, we just don't known how much will fall and whether it will cause a flash crash.. I'm affraid that it is very possible, that till tomorrow we will see at least -15%

Hmm ... are you really sure about that? Maybe you should bet on the exchange with a large multiplier for this drop? If you are really right, you can make good money on this. And if the price really goes to 4,000, then you can ten times your capital. As for me, I'm waiting for a signal to make a short on ETH.

[TheAndy500]

This is not such a low level to invent any special arguments. Bitcoin is highly volatile, bitcoin has made good Xs this year, there are huge problems ahead of bitcoin miners associated with halving. It seems to me that even these reasons are enough to make a small (-50%) drop down.

~By tomorrow the price almost for sure will fall, we just don't known how much will fall and whether it will cause a flash crash.. I'm affraid that it is very possible, that till tomorrow we will see at least -15%

Hmm ... are you really sure about that? Maybe you should bet on the exchange with a large multiplier for this drop? If you are really right, you can make good money on this. And if the price really goes to 4,000, then you can ten times your capital. As for me, I'm waiting for a signal to make a short on ETH.

I don't play against the price. I just invest, always in the long term, unless that are tokens or some little-known alts, then I play for events or pumps.
The fact that I wrote that the price will fall till tomorrow is my impression. It seems to me that for several days there has been a lack of positive information and there is less positive sentiments on the market. I could be wrong, however, the drops are still more likely for me and i think about quite big proce drops, thats why I think Vays may be right.

[thisnewcoin]

Anything is possible but that doesn't mean we can expect Bitcoin at 4K USD! I don't think it will happen before or after the halving! But I already set my mind that very soon Bitcoin price will come to 8K USD very soon! Tone Vays prediction is not acceptable in any way, but yet we should be ready and focus on the market to pick the best time.

[TheGreatPython]

If we actually somehow get a good correction before the halving that will make things a lot better for rich people. If the poor people keep selling all the time until the price reaches 4k, who do you think will buy all of those coins from all those low levels? It will be whales with money who could cover all that much sale and that will result with them getting cheap bitcoin right before the halving.

After halving happens we will see the price slowly increase, I doubt it would go back up to like 15k in a day so it will be slow but eventually all those whales that got cheap bitcoin will want to see it go up really fast. That is why I think we should try to not sell these days, if you see price going down suddenly and looks like its going to 4k, stop and do not sell, wait for it to go back up.

[fabiorem]

Well, one characteristic of a bull market is that the price always have corrections in the weekends, and recovers in the mondays.

Today is monday and the price didn't recovered from the weekend dump. So we are not yet in a bull market. CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

I think $4k is a bit too much, though. The range between $5k and $7k seems more likely, in case a massive dump happens. Remember its a extremely manipulated market, with absolutely no protection for small traders, so anything can happen.

[STT]

There is nothing regular guiding us like that in a bull market, very generally the lows will be higher each point and the highs also will keep rising.  Thats the bullish trend, but there is no particular day for the market to go up or down and its like a snake that will double back and try and bite you, none the less bull markets go up.    People always want to call out 10,000 or any flat number or a day it must rise or this year, the halvening must mean it rises but I'd advise against believing any of that.   Certainty is not available, the risk is paired with the pay off when it rises and if people expect too much the market seems to want to knock them out of the holding make people give up and then goes up.    On that count, the strange way markets can be thats only way how I could get Tone Vays is right and sensible.

If the poor people keep selling all the time until the price reaches 4k,

The poor people dont have capital and unfortunately that matters, this is just typical of markets and people call it whales forcing prices but its the free market itself that twists about till weak hands leave.   BTC has been doing this for years, it gets easier to be more comfortable when its not the first time seeing it but the volatility is beyond any other market.

[exstasie]

Today is monday and the price didn't recovered from the weekend dump. So we are not yet in a bull market.

Totally arbitrary. The "weekend dump" and "new money Monday" aren't reliable events. If they ever were, traders have priced them in by now.

CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

Good. The market has just shaken out lots of marginal longs. Now there is lots of latent demand to drive us back into "greed" again. Not to mention that Bitfinex shorts have tripled over the last month = more fuel for upside.

[Stedsm]

Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.

CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

Good. The market has just shaken out lots of marginal longs. Now there is lots of latent demand to drive us back into "greed" again. Not to mention that Bitfinex shorts have tripled over the last month = more fuel for upside.

You mean that it is time for the bulls' savage attack on bears to take the revenge they had been looking for since last month? Bears didn't get stopped out, means they have set their orders higher to shoot the price down if I'm not wrong?

[KTChampions]

Hmm ... are you really sure about that? Maybe you should bet on the exchange with a large multiplier for this drop? If you are really right, you can make good money on this. And if the price really goes to 4,000, then you can ten times your capital. As for me, I'm waiting for a signal to make a short on ETH.

I don't play against the price. I just invest, always in the long term, unless that are tokens or some little-known alts, then I play for events or pumps.
The fact that I wrote that the price will fall till tomorrow is my impression. It seems to me that for several days there has been a lack of positive information and there is less positive sentiments on the market. I could be wrong, however, the drops are still more likely for me and i think about quite big proce drops, thats why I think Vays may be right.

I have about the same approach to investing. But lately, too many events that can be said obviously lead the price in some direction, so the temptation to play is very great. Just in case, I registered on bitmex and am waiting for a convenient signal to enter the market.

[1Referee]

Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.

$8600 seems fair given the fact that on the weekly the price tends to bounce off the 21EMA, which conveniently speaking, is around that level.

I however think that altcoins are on the brink of exploding, which might help Bitcoin to regain some bullish momentum too in the very short term. Ethereum dips are bought up like crazy, even much more aggressively so than Bitcoin's dips. I'll keep monitoring the price of Ethereum and wait for a long entery point. Given its fundamental strength, it might pay off handsomely.

[exstasie]

CFGI shows a score of 49 in the "neutral" area.

Good. The market has just shaken out lots of marginal longs. Now there is lots of latent demand to drive us back into "greed" again. Not to mention that Bitfinex shorts have tripled over the last month = more fuel for upside.

You mean that it is time for the bulls' savage attack on bears to take the revenge they had been looking for since last month? Bears didn't get stopped out, means they have set their orders higher to shoot the price down if I'm not wrong?

Not sure what you mean exactly, but this is the general idea:



4-hour bullish divergence, OBV recovery, and break of that local downtrend line all suggest the bottom could be in. Now we need a confirmed higher low.

How this might fit into the bigger picture:

[7788bitcoin]

Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.

This is a realistic price for correction and in a worst situation it might go down to $7200 , even during the last rally i do not remember having a huge correction before the big rally, we had periodic correction with each resistance and usually pumps above and i am not expecting the same rally like we had last time but i am not expecting the market to have a huge correction either.

[Stedsm]

Looking for bulls to stop shorts from breaking key level at $9400 else we may see a $8600 BTC as I predicted earlier in this thread which is the only price I see possible as the least.

This is a realistic price for correction and in a worst situation it might go down to $7200 , even during the last rally i do not remember having a huge correction before the big rally, we had periodic correction with each resistance and usually pumps above and i am not expecting the same rally like we had last time but i am not expecting the market to have a huge correction either.

Just like exstasie determined in his 1D chart, I'm waiting for the last leg (6th leg if you can clearly see in the charts) before an explosive rally takes place towards $25k as the Golden Cross indicates. Though, for that to happen, I'm still thinking that BTC needs to come down to get a new support for that leg and a newer higher low which will establish a pattern that will clear all our doubts and show some optimism in the markets.

[TheGreatPython]

I would say charts are great examples of what should happen but also they could never predict the future in a unpredictable market which means that anything could happen instead what should happen and that is why I think if we were to drop that much, we can't go back up that fast since the psychology of human mind doesn't allow it to think that much volatility that quickly.

If we went up 25%+ in the recent months and then drop 25% in the next week, we can't simply process another 50% increase following that, we have never seen anything that moves so radically before and that is exactly why we wouldn't be able to do anything about this if it were to happen and would not follow the charts and what we should do and do something wrong which could make the chart wrong.

[coolcoinz]

I don't really follow Tone because he used to be extremely bearish last year, calling for sub 3k and possible 1k Bitcoin, but all that happened was 3.3k. When we broke through 10k for the first time last year he was still bearish and still calling for sub 3k Bitcoin, but we did not even go below 6k, so he was wrong about the lows twice in one year. Now he's bearish again, what a surprise 

I believe that we won't go below 6k this year, but anything is possible if some countries decide to impose bans or USDt is proven to be a scam with no backing. Without major events there's maybe 1% chance of 4k before halving.