Tone Vays Stands by $4K Bitcoin Price Pre-Halving Prediction

[rodskee]

Bitcoin blasted through the $10K barrier once again this Sunday. But while the majority of analysts are hanging out the flags hailing the next Bitcoin bull run, prominent BTC trader and analyst Tone Vays stands by his bearish prediction. https://bitcoinist.com/tone-vays-defends-bearish-btc/

And he got it correct,maybe he knew already the effect of this Virus from last year thats why he stays BEarish even when market shows bullishness from the start of this year.and almost perfect catch because this is pre-halving and the expectations should be Pumping.
how i wish i did read this article before so i am ready and maybe Pull out my Holding early march and buy back 2 weeks after.

[SquallLeonhart]

Well, 4k did actually happened but not because of anything Tone was waiting on, it was corona virus that made it 4k, we can't say that he was "right" this way, did he got it right that we hit it before that date? Yes.

But, he got lucky (well the world is unlucky right now) because something MAJOR happened and that's it, it wasn't some technical analyst type of stuff, it wasn't all that important, I still think that we could potentially go to 10k like we did a month ago, but if suddenly there is a whale coming in buying 10 billion dollars worth of bitcoin, that will not make me right, that would make me just lucky. What would have made him right is if there was nothing major going on in bitcoin world and he still said it and we still went down, no corona no nothing, then he would have been right.

[malevolent]

But, he got lucky (well the world is unlucky right now) because something MAJOR happened and that's it, it wasn't some technical analyst type of stuff, it wasn't all that important, I still think that we could potentially go to 10k like we did a month ago, but if suddenly there is a whale coming in buying 10 billion dollars worth of bitcoin, that will not make me right, that would make me just lucky. What would have made him right is if there was nothing major going on in bitcoin world and he still said it and we still went down, no corona no nothing, then he would have been right.

How many predictions does he make on an average month? Make enough predictions, eventually one of them will turn out right, this time a black swan helped him out.

[bbc.reporter]

@malevolent. However, Toner Vays might have begun his secret investigation on the coronavirus before he made his prediction. I speculate that he might have friends from the Chinese trading and mining community that give him news and updates.

[STT]

Nah I doubt it, he made the call from various measures he weighs and considers in price movement.   It might be unfamiliar to us but I never thought he was disingenuous in his opinions just couldn't see how it could play out.  
    I've often made a price target without knowing how it would occur, thats a normal concept and the news pares with price action and the two compliment each other blindly almost.

[dragonvslinux]

@malevolent. However, Toner Vays might have begun his secret investigation on the coronavirus before he made his prediction. I speculate that he might have friends from the Chinese trading and mining community that give him news and updates.

Unlikely, he has been predicting $4K since May 2019 when price reached $5K. He expected the pull back from there that never occurred, instead price rallied to $14K. It's his old TA he's held onto since the mini bull run / dead cat bounce. He never suggested price would drop to $4K because of the virus, instead he was expecting $5K levels at that point.

[KTChampions]

Well, 4k did actually happened but not because of anything Tone was waiting on, it was corona virus that made it 4k, we can't say that he was "right" this way, did he got it right that we hit it before that date? Yes.

But, he got lucky (well the world is unlucky right now) because something MAJOR happened and that's it, it wasn't some technical analyst type of stuff, it wasn't all that important, I still think that we could potentially go to 10k like we did a month ago, but if suddenly there is a whale coming in buying 10 billion dollars worth of bitcoin, that will not make me right, that would make me just lucky. What would have made him right is if there was nothing major going on in bitcoin world and he still said it and we still went down, no corona no nothing, then he would have been right.

Perhaps he did not guess the foundation, but he guessed the target levels, you must agree that this is a great success. Especially when you consider that his forecast was contrary to the trend.
What can you say about those forecasts (there were an overwhelming majority of them) that claimed that during the crisis, bitcoin will grow because it is a protective asset?

[carter34]

@malevolent. However, Toner Vays might have begun his secret investigation on the coronavirus before he made his prediction. I speculate that he might have friends from the Chinese trading and mining community that give him news and updates.

I don't think this is so because I also don't believe someone saw this kind of harsh effect coming on the lives of people. His prediction was just accidentally on his bear and nothing to prove to me that anyone saw the covid-19 effect being as devastating as this we are feeling.

[bbc.reporter]

However, did he predict what was about to occur by using technical analysis? This can be an argument because the changes on the price of bitcoin is a representation of the psychology of the market herd.

[TheAndy500]

However, did he predict what was about to occur by using technical analysis? This can be an argument because the changes on the price of bitcoin is a representation of the psychology of the market herd.

We all know that technical analysis can work in markets with very high capitalization. The cryptocurrency market has very low capitalization and therefore very large price fluctuations, which means that technical analysis does not work here.
Such predictions are mainly based on analyzing upcoming events and observing moods.
Someone will always be able to predict the price, but I have not yet seen it succeed in the same person twice in a row.

[STT]

Its billions big, thats big enough and its a natural market traded people so will display similar movements and patterns like many markets traded by people because we often jump on prices going higher and flee a falling price and the constant live speculation is similar too.    Perfectly tradable and I've seen main market traders with 30 years experience step into trading BTC but back out when they felt it was getting too erratic again.   Nothing is stopping TA working here, I think seasonal commodities could be a lot harder to get right when its reliant on hard data but BTC mostly reacts to dollar and global currency flow I think.
   I almost always trade BTC right alongside every other market price you might hear on the business news like oil or shares whatever, same account same listings.   When BTC went into futures listings it opened the door to a whole avenue of speculators.   I'm lucky I live somewhere they dont tax me on guessing prices because its classified as betting for me.

I'm fine with skeptical views stated, perfectly valid and part of the market perspective we have with millions of people involved.   Volatility and erratic prices can also mean larger moves and bigger profits possible, I agree it is harder to be involved with confidence when we can move 10% very easily but look at the main indexes and nothing is perfectly safe.

[bbc.reporter]

However, did he predict what was about to occur by using technical analysis? This can be an argument because the changes on the price of bitcoin is a representation of the psychology of the market herd.

We all know that technical analysis can work in markets with very high capitalization. The cryptocurrency market has very low capitalization and therefore very large price fluctuations, which means that technical analysis does not work here.
Such predictions are mainly based on analyzing upcoming events and observing moods.
Someone will always be able to predict the price, but I have not yet seen it succeed in the same person twice in a row.

What is the connection, who said that and is there proof that technical analysis does not work on bitcoin? Also, if that was true then where did Tone Vay's prediction of $4k come from?