IDEA for a lottery that does not depend on luck

[Saint-loup]

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

I'm not sure the incentive of a more expensive price will be enough to avoid player to wait for the last minute.
It would be really hard for the first players to guess the amount of the pot.

[alani123]

This would be a nice game to lure in players that wouldn't know when to cut their loss. But also having that much control over an outcome just by betting players with lesser funds less likely to win also. It is a bit counter intuitive to bet in such platform

[goinmerry]

Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

Do you really think people will put extra money just to increase their chances in the last minute? That's a bad idea and all I can see here is you want to increase the commission you will get. That will destroy the game.

The rules should have a deadline for at least 3 to 4 days before the timestamp. No bets will be accepted after that period.

It's a quick profit to you and all you need to do is to set up the site and fix the whole system.

[Lakai01]

I am not sure what the purpose of this thread is OP. Are you going to host a prediction game here at BTT and you want to have feedback or is this just an idea you came up with?

If you really want to host such a game I am sure a lot of people can help you and share their ideas to form a fair and fun game. If not discussing such an idea leads to nowhere I think

[shoreno]

this will still depend on luck because the prize is unpredictble plus you said you also up the price for ticket on the last minute  . people will think that the price will stop at there but what if someone still continue buying  ? prediction will still fail  but overall this idea is new to me  . its verry unique so id still support it  . trading also works like predicting prices  ( i.e t.a ) and trading is termed as a skill game more than luck , and the mechanics of this game is pretty simillar to it  . so it could be that the game is somehow needs skills  .

[bering]

If we can find the lottery such as this then probably people will wait until last minutes to being an participants so i think this is cannot be called as lottery game and more likely to called as predictions game because there is no draw process when determine the winner and i fear too the hosts can manipulate the game results

[Ucy]

Interesting. But why not have more bettors win something too? I guess there should be First to Tenth prices for 10 winners or even more. The top winner wins the biggest while the last wins smallest. This could increase participation, you know.

Hope the lottery owner won't know the amount in the pot, and other important data?
This will probably work well in decentralized manner

[michellee]

As far as I know, the lottery prizes already announce in the beginning before people buy the tickets so people can buy many tickets which a big hope to win one of the prizes or win the jackpot. If the prizes are changed at the end of the period time, then I don't think that is a lottery.

But maybe you can use that for your own website, and attract people to buy the tickets, and if they are close to the jackpot prizes, they can win. But maybe you can reduce the price of the tickets because that will not attract more people to buy the tickets.

[Ailmand]

This game can't even be counted as a lottery in the first place since players literally have no equal chances in a guessing game where people can build a "strategy". Lottery games may it be traditional or modern are always about number being drawn randomly where all players have fair chances to take the prize. Also I don't like the idea of this kind of game technically people or a group who have tons of money can dump their money to buy tickets and can easily predict the number closes to the money they own + the number of money of what others have entered, basically they will be winning every week since they have the best chance possible on predicting the number.

People would just simply wait for the 7th day before they do make a bet because this would be the last day were bets will really be near on pot prize prediction.
Do this one really involved some strategy? No it doesnt because you can already saw those numbers in front of you and just simply input it up and
trying hard to get the last prediction or spot.As said i dont find it interesting at all.

Same though, guessing the pot on the last minute of the 7th day will give you a higher probability of winning. This kind of game is not really a good attraction in crypto gambling. Lotteries or this thpe of game is just like a side bet for gamblers to try their luck for the jackpot for a single bet.

[swogerino]

The human nature is greedy and it inducts one person to try and find ways to manipulate or cheat in something when this is a possibility.Based on this a prediction lottery like this one is a really bad idea as it leaves ample room for cheating and manipulating the results.This has not worked before and I doubt it will work now.Better to use the random algorithm to define a winner,there is no possibility of manipulation from the outside in such case.

[xvids]

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

I think this kind of lottery is unfair early bettor would have a low chance of winning while the last minute bettor have the highest percent of predicting it right.
I don't think any prediction type of lottery would always have it's disadvantage for the early bettor unless you would hide what they are predicting or only give out some small detail.

[LbtalkL]

You have a good imagination but I guess it is a bad idea If you publish the current pot amount anyone can manipulate it and If you hide it no one will join because of "trust" what if the owner of this prediction lottery will manipulate it himself? There is no better way, That is why a lottery like this does not exist or not well-known.

[dothebeats]

This wouldn’t be considered as a lottery but rather a different type of game.

The whole idea of a lottery is a winner-take-all scheme based on pure luck and randomness. Take those two away from each other and you have a different form of gambling game.

Also, the mechanics in which your idea runs can easily be rigged. Even if the prediction has a fixed-time for betting entries, one person can just submit multiple entries, each of which close to what the pot is by paying an awful lot of tickets. It’s not great money to be made but it’s profit nonetheless.

Or say, if the pot progression is hidden to the players, how sure are the players that they are not being robbed off of their money and fooled by the operators?

Lots of flaws and possible exploits on this one. It wouldn’t sell to the gambling degens IMO.

[rodskee]

whats the difference between prediction and lottery in regards to Luck?when you predict you also needs Luck to win mate because this will rely on what will be the outcome and nothings different between the two.

and also there are many prediction games offered here and some are free of Bet like what @mic are doing in speculation section in which he is asking for prediction about the Bitcoin price in each quarter so there can be winners in the end of each quarters.

better just do prediction game so we don't need to make it harder to understand.

[DabsPoorVersion]

It is more on prediction and does not have even the slightest of the idea of lottery where the game is more on luck and everyone have the same level of chance to win the pot. Also, manipulation can happen inside this game and it is not a good idea, gamers will try to avoid this for sure.

[dimonstration]

You have a good imagination but I guess it is a bad idea If you publish the current pot amount anyone can manipulate it and If you hide it no one will join because of "trust" what if the owner of this prediction lottery will manipulate it himself? There is no better way, That is why a lottery like this does not exist or not well-known.

There will always be a trust issue in gambling. Even in normal lottery or those government approved lottery games. Though the idea was their but executing it will definitely be a hard time since there are many preferences to consider like who will take the risk of this prediction game. How much will it cost that it's worth betting. It's like a prediction or speculation game wherein we thought of how much the BTC price will be in a open or close prize withing a week. It will all depend on what casino will implement it to test how will it works.

[virasog]

Hi everybody!

I have an idea for a new type of Bitcoin lottery.

Instead of a lottery where the winner is chosen randomly, I would like to see a lottery where the player can build some strategy to try to win the pot.

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

The people will wait and wait and will try to submit the prediction at the very end to be accurate. Also there are many chances that many people may predict the correct value and lottery may have to be distributed among many.
I do not like this new idea and if we implement this, then we cannot term this as a lottery.                                          

[chaser15]

The lottery can be called "prediction lottery", let's say there is a period of time, for example, 1 week, after that period 1 player will win the jackpot. Everybody can buy a ticket for a fixed price, for example, 0.001 BTC, instead of choosing some random numbers like in most lotteries, the player makes a prediction of how much the pot is going to be at the end of the period of time. The prediction that is most close to the jackpot value, wins the lottery. Because it is more difficult to predict the pot at the beginning of the round than at the last minute, we can introduce a more expensive price of the ticket for last-minute players.

What do you think? Would you like to play a lottery such as this? What improvements or variations do you suggest?

There are lots of flaws here.

Since you have control of the system, there is a possibility that you will join the last-minute prediction or makes some manipulations while the countdown is ticking. That type of game is also costly and more expensive while the probability of winning is low. Much better to play instead of 1-2% house edge casinos or bet on sports betting with an odds of 2 above.

BTC0.001 per ticks and it will cost more day by day. Even the price will start at BTC0.0001 it's still expensive until the end. And what if no real players joined, devs can actually manipulate the stats here for people to think that many are putting their bets.

[KTChampions]

The most absurd idea I've seen in gambling 
If you take away luck/randomness, this turns the game into a regular competitive game (even with random elements), there are already a lot of such games - card, sports, competition of forecasters/analysts, etc.
In general, a lottery without luck is even worse than non-alcoholic beer 

[BALIK]

If we can find the lottery such as this then probably people will wait until last minutes to being an participants so i think this is cannot be called as lottery game and more likely to called as predictions game because there is no draw process when determine the winner and i fear too the hosts can manipulate the game results

This is exactly how these games usually end up.

Nobody wants to place the first bet, and instead you just get a large number of people appear right before the end of a round.

Then, the same thing happens again when the round ends, ad infinitum.

Not a very engaging game IMO. No fun factor either.