S&P took quite a hit today

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Uh....yeah.  I don't generally watch news, but I've been watching Youtube videos for the past day, and I have changed my opinion about the corona virus not affecting markets.  It certainly looks like it is doing exactly that, and I think a lot of investors are really scared.  Big money investors are always looking toward the future in terms of earnings, etc., and it seems like they think the big corporations are going to take big hits.  That remains to be seen, but the fear is real.

And I guess the stock market took another huge plunge today (I haven't looked recently).  While I'd say that's to be expected, given that we've been in a bull market for about eleven years, I think a big factor actually is a fear of a worldwide contagion.  Yikes.

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[exstasie]

Uh....yeah.  I don't generally watch news, but I've been watching Youtube videos for the past day, and I have changed my opinion about the corona virus not affecting markets.  It certainly looks like it is doing exactly that, and I think a lot of investors are really scared.  Big money investors are always looking toward the future in terms of earnings, etc., and it seems like they think the big corporations are going to take big hits.  That remains to be seen, but the fear is real.

And I guess the stock market took another huge plunge today (I haven't looked recently).  While I'd say that's to be expected, given that we've been in a bull market for about eleven years, I think a big factor actually is a fear of a worldwide contagion.  Yikes.

I'm impressed bears took it right down through 3K!



Bounce here and we're still in the realm of "normal correction." Keep dumping through 2,800 at this rate and it starts to look considerably worse.

Lots of FUD to sift through. The infection rate in China is plummeting but since the number of countries with new cases is increasing (even with low fatality rate and number of cases) the WHO has upgraded the risk of impact to "very high" globally. The markets are panicking on news like this.

My natural inclination is to play the contrarian. Those selling out of fear right now will probably be punished by the market. This shit is pretty nuts though. My crystal ball is sort of murky.

[pixie85]

I have a feeling that drop wasn't due to any virus.  The stock market has been on a tear for years now and I'm surprised we haven't seen more of these 3-4% corrections--and hell, I remember when the S&P 500 was stuck below 1000 for the longest time.  I'm sure a big event like a viral contagion can affect things, but I just don't think it's that in this case.  Could be wrong, of course.

There was a website that showed the death toll from corona virus, but I forgot what it is.  Is the number getting much bigger or what?  In any event, I don't think it's anywhere near the death toll from 9/11, and that's a big event that actually did affect the stock market for quite a while.

Here's one of the maps, updated daily.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

I also don't think that it's the fault of the virus or the panic that follows. The panic is much greater than the risk because I'm in the EU where there are almost nocases of the virus and people are already storming pharmacies, concerts and other events are being postponed, in the news reporters are telling people to make sure they have some food and water stashed at home just in case.

I know that this has nothing to do with Bitcoin and won't change my mind about investments but many people think that in case of an epidemic they won't be able to go to a bank or an ATM and may lose Internet acccess so they prefer to have cash.

[STT]

Its easier to drop this much after an excessive rise and many thought it looked as much for a while.  Many stocks had a similar kind of look to a parabolic formation which only ends with a sell like this.    Its a good trigger but not the total explanation.   
  I think the profit from here is playing out the sharp recoveries that are possible, each will sell also but eventually it'll go back into some trend.   Probably it just carries on upwards and this sell isnt even that great, I think it can find support here and the SPY close today was quite positive so at least some will be watching for longs on Monday.
   BTC I think could also catch some positive moves, I dont think either are going to move down all in one go from here.   Its adjustment and less gradient and over time we'll smooth out probably, bit early to call but often it can rise alot after a fall.

[exstasie]

The daily closed as a bullish hammer candlestick. A bit wide-bodied but it'll do:



Keep your eyes on the pre-market data during the weekend close: https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

S&P 500 mini futures are up another 31 points since the markets shut. If the market gaps up on Monday's open with a strong green candle, we'll have all 3 pieces required for a bullish morning star reversal:



It's painful waiting this stuff out, but I think both stocks and BTC are beginning to exhibit bullish reversal signs.

Plus, we have fundamentals to consider:

• Fed Is Ready to Cut Rates in Response to Coronavirus
• Bitcoin halving ETA date: 12 May 2020

[adaseb]

The bullish daily close doesn't mean anything and I will tell you why.

Back when I used to day trade the stock market in 2008, I noticed that usually during end of stock trading day and especially end of week on Friday, in the last hour there was usually a rally. Later on I realised that it was nothing more than short coverings. Why? Basically markets were very volatile back then and some positive news over the weekend could cause a gap up and leave many short traders holding huge losses.

Todays close is similar. Basically no trader wants to hold a short position over the weekend in case something positive develops and they get a nasty gap up. When the markets open Sunday evening we might resume the down-trend.

[CaVO32]

Uh....yeah.  I don't generally watch news, but I've been watching Youtube videos for the past day, and I have changed my opinion about the corona virus not affecting markets.  It certainly looks like it is doing exactly that, and I think a lot of investors are really scared.  Big money investors are always looking toward the future in terms of earnings, etc., and it seems like they think the big corporations are going to take big hits.  That remains to be seen, but the fear is real.

And I guess the stock market took another huge plunge today (I haven't looked recently).  While I'd say that's to be expected, given that we've been in a bull market for about eleven years, I think a big factor actually is a fear of a worldwide contagion.  Yikes.

the impact of this epidemic is now seen in the world market. because of the worldwide infection and the increasing number of cases around the globe, people are scared and businesses are shutting down for a certain period of time, whenever there is positive case/s within the area. the economy has been hit real hard by this health crisis. i hope the pharmaceutical industry will develop the vaccine fast though there is one pharma that is claiming to have develop the vaccine but still need to undergo human testing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-first-coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-testing-11582579099
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

but I don't think coronavirus has big impact in S & P at the moment.

[dragonvslinux]

Looks like it might be finding support from the VPVR point of control since the $2300 lows in December 2018 as well as 100 Week MA.
Weekly RSI is touching neutral territory (arguably a zone buy), CMF remains bullish. It fall below this level though, then its fucked imo.



Pretty good dragonfly looking doji reversal candle from oversold conditions on the Daily. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upwards gap open on Monday:



Breaking back above the 200 Day MA around $3050 will be challenging though, given the Daily time-frame is now bearish.

[FanEagle]

Media is a double edge sword, you may not want to watch regular mainstream media on television to get your information which you are definitely right because they are doing whatever type of news their owners want and that's it, they are not doing anything that is real or truth because that usually doesn't work out for the news neither so they are basically just focusing on the lies that would help them.

However, do not forget that there is no central organization that checks the facts of youtube channels neither so they can very well make fake videos and fake facts and make you believe in something that doesn't exist as well. Not saying the video you watched is like that but there is always that risk and you should always be careful.

[exstasie]

Looks like it might be finding support from the VPVR point of control since the $2300 lows in December 2018 as well as 100 Week MA.
Weekly RSI is touching neutral territory (arguably a zone buy), CMF remains bullish. It fall below this level though, then its fucked imo.

Yep, it's do or die time. We're leading up to a really important weekly open.

First corona virus death in the US, makes for an ominous headline: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1st-coronavirus-death-u-s-officials-say-n1145931

The bullish daily close doesn't mean anything and I will tell you why.

Back when I used to day trade the stock market in 2008, I noticed that usually during end of stock trading day and especially end of week on Friday, in the last hour there was usually a rally. Later on I realised that it was nothing more than short coverings. Why? Basically markets were very volatile back then and some positive news over the weekend could cause a gap up and leave many short traders holding huge losses.

Todays close is similar. Basically no trader wants to hold a short position over the weekend in case something positive develops and they get a nasty gap up. When the markets open Sunday evening we might resume the down-trend.

After a typical week in the markets, I would say you are right. The market sunk 12% during the week, right into a high volume consolidation area as dragonvslinux showed, so it's anything but typical. We can't explain away the price action that way.

The question is will the markets still be in panic on Monday morning?

[exstasie]

It fall below this level though, then its fucked imo.

Yep, it's do or die time. We're leading up to a really important weekly open.

The question is will the markets still be in panic on Monday morning?

Finally, some relief in the markets. The S&P 500 gapped up on the weekly open. If it can manage to close the day above 3020 or so, it will print a solid morning star reversal:





Scary times but the panic seems to be subsiding, which by extension is good for BTC. I'm not surprised to see BTC relief rallying alongside stocks. Epic futures volume also suggests exhaustion. Look to the left to see what happened the last time we saw similar volume after a selloff:

[STT]

Is the volume good enough, its just a correction within a bear move for the moment but 2900 or so is a decent place for it to find a bottom price.   I think will repeat a bit here, relief rally, sell and so on until volume of previous sells is worked out.

BTC is doing ok, its not been pushed to do anything especially negative but 9000 is some cap now I think and has been in the past.   Positive phase, 9050 confirmed and 8700 is two day average which will quite quickly catch up.   Proper area of bearish sell is around 8500 again we've seen it previously and its an old trend now

[jackg]

this guy did a video on it recently and I bought back after watching it and doing some of my own analysis (my position wnet up so I readjusted the tight stop i'd set to be above breakeven).

We'll have to continue on further this week to see if it improves. I always see more of an uptake on friday in the UK so it might hold the same with us in this scenario too (I mean in my timezone for the s&p).

[exstasie]

Finally, some relief in the markets. The S&P 500 gapped up on the weekly open. If it can manage to close the day above 3020 or so, it will print a solid morning star reversal:

The market did a lot more than 3020!



Morning star reversal confirmed. Panic selling stopped in its tracks. It looks like panicky retail investors just got totally fleeced and shaken out of the market.

The whole corona virus thing is being overblown. It looks like smart money knows that. Some basic facts regarding the impact:

As of Mar. 2, 2020, the flu is showing much more of an impact on Americans than COVID-19.

COVID-19: Approximately 3,085 deaths reported worldwide; 6 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 2, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

[justdimin]

Obviously, the smart people would know about it, I have literally said that cancer kills more people but when you look at it you can literally see even the common flu is taking more lives than corona, I never understood why people were so scared of corona to begin with, sure it is a new thing and we would rather not have it but to have 24/7 live news coverage for something that killed only 3000 people so far is idiotic, there are even man made wars that kills each other a lot more frequently than that which could be stopped, so there is all those thousands of stuff that kills people a lot more in numbers than corona but for some reason everyone is scared of corona and financial world gets affected, I will never know.

[alani123]

Similar situation with the Athens stock exchange market. People were expecting great losses and there was a lot of divestment. After all, Athens is a center for investment for the Chinese. Chinese corporation have leased the country's main port for 100 years! But today the market recovered with gains at 6.38% in a single session! Just a small market but it shows how fragile markets can be under a sentiment.

[jackg]

Obviously, the smart people would know about it, I have literally said that cancer kills more people but when you look at it you can literally see even the common flu is taking more lives than corona, I never understood why people were so scared of corona to begin with, sure it is a new thing and we would rather not have it but to have 24/7 live news coverage for something that killed only 3000 people so far is idiotic, there are even man made wars that kills each other a lot more frequently than that which could be stopped, so there is all those thousands of stuff that kills people a lot more in numbers than corona but for some reason everyone is scared of corona and financial world gets affected, I will never know.

From what I know so far:

• The disease itself is cold-like in structure (hence the corona name)
• The YOUNGEST reported death from the disease is 34
• The disease causes pneumonia in patients and that's what causes the problem, the actual virus doesn't do as much damage as you might expect and the average person will likely just get cold like symptoms

The US media is doing what it always does and making things look like they've appeared from nothing and only since the problem has come to them are they actually worried. China haven't down awfully to stop the spread of the virus (they've done better than Japan with that cruise ship)...

Most countries will have a lot of accomodation for things like this anyway to put suspected people in. And they should really already have a plan...

[pooya87]

Obviously, the smart people would know about it, I have literally said that cancer kills more people but when you look at it you can literally see even the common flu is taking more lives than corona, I never understood why people were so scared of corona to begin with, sure it is a new thing and we would rather not have it but to have 24/7 live news coverage for something that killed only 3000 people so far is idiotic, there are even man made wars that kills each other a lot more frequently than that which could be stopped, so there is all those thousands of stuff that kills people a lot more in numbers than corona but for some reason everyone is scared of corona and financial world gets affected, I will never know.

that is a bad comparison. for example if you have close contact someone who has cancer you are not going to get cancer but that is not true about a contagious virus such as COVID-19 that can easily spread from one person to another.
additionally it is a new strand of the virus, another mutation and who knows what we are going to end up with.

[exstasie]

The carnage continues in the stock markets. Panic all around.



Looking at corrections since 2008, this is now bigger than 2018 or 2011. This is the biggest drop since 2008, though we aren't anywhere close to 2008 magnitude of decline yet.

BTC is in a panic frenzy of its own. Just saw a $1,600 drop in a single 30-minute candle. Margin longs just got completely annihilated, as did all of this years gains.

Things are looking pretty grim at the moment across all markets. Enough blood in the streets yet, or have we seen nothing yet?

[gentlemand]

Looking at corrections since 2008, this is now bigger than 2018 or 2011. This is the biggest drop since 2008, though we aren't anywhere close to 2008 magnitude of decline yet.

BTC is in a panic frenzy of its own. Just saw a $1,600 drop in a single 30-minute candle. Margin longs just got completely annihilated, as did all of this years gains.

Things are looking pretty grim at the moment across all markets. Enough blood in the streets yet, or have we seen nothing yet?

The British market is heading for the worst day since 1987.

I guess we'll see about blood in the streets, but since all this bonkersdom threatens the very survival of many companies in a way that's never been this stark before I expect some turds in the streets before it's over.