S&P took quite a hit today

[jackg]

I'm looking at reports and a lot of them are saying it's due to the coronovirus, I don't know how much of an impact that would have on the American markets but it looks to be quite a big one, my small position lost $100 in profit since Friday. The rest of the international markets I.e the vuk and ftse 100uk also look to have responded but they seem to be a delayed response (unless anythings got worse that I haven't noticed from ignoring mainstream media and its general fear mongering).

[1715421451]

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[TheAndy500]

Coronavirus, or rather the fact that the industry in China has been very much limited, will certainly have an impact on the economy around the world. I am not sure how this could affect FIAT money rates. However, if stock prices fall on classic exchanges, then some capital should move to the cryptocurrency market. I think that if the situation in China does not improve, in the long run, it may affect the increase in cryptocurrency prices.

[jackg]

I think that if the situation in China does not improve, in the long run, it may affect the increase in cryptocurrency prices.

Well if some stocks fall because of it then I can see bitcoin and ethereum taking a bit of an advantage over this since they've proved to be 'fairly' stable so far while the other markets haven't been and even quite a bit more prosporous...

It does look a lot like a retracement in the stock market though, as if it isn't irrecoverable and it may be nearing the bottom of its immediate correction. It did look to be stabalising and moving slightly upwards just before I wrote this, but not as much as it could so it'll likely either keep moving sideways or go up in the immediate term.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I have a feeling that drop wasn't due to any virus.  The stock market has been on a tear for years now and I'm surprised we haven't seen more of these 3-4% corrections--and hell, I remember when the S&P 500 was stuck below 1000 for the longest time.  I'm sure a big event like a viral contagion can affect things, but I just don't think it's that in this case.  Could be wrong, of course.

There was a website that showed the death toll from corona virus, but I forgot what it is.  Is the number getting much bigger or what?  In any event, I don't think it's anywhere near the death toll from 9/11, and that's a big event that actually did affect the stock market for quite a while.

[YuginKadoya]

I also think that it is not from the virus as well but the lingering fear from the people because of the virus is surely in it, but I really think that there is no effect on the market of crypto but with just the people itself,

But we can not set aside the problem on the coronavirus issue as a small kind of problem, There are many affected and not only China is involved here but the whole world itself it becomes a global threat in my opinion and as we speak it will just keep it worst day by day.

[exstasie]

I'm looking at reports and a lot of them are saying it's due to the coronovirus, I don't know how much of an impact that would have on the American markets but it looks to be quite a big one, my small position lost $100 in profit since Friday. The rest of the international markets I.e the vuk and ftse 100uk also look to have responded but they seem to be a delayed response (unless anythings got worse that I haven't noticed from ignoring mainstream media and its general fear mongering).

You weren't kidding. That's one heck of a gap down on the daily chart! Haven't see one this big in years.



It also looks like an exhaustion gap, which could usher in a larger bearish correction. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/exhaustiongap.asp



Keep in mind, the S&P 500 is only down 5% from its ATH, reached last week. We were at this price 3 weeks ago. This is nowhere near a "crash" yet.

Something to consider though: if the coronavirus does end up developing into a major pandemic, it could usher in a recession quicker than I've been anticipating.

[adaseb]

I think what is going on is that the media is scaring many retail stock traders out of their positions in fear of some global epidemic which might cause a recession. I think many retail traders are up a large %'s in the last few years and they want to preserve profits. So they see headlines like coronavirus and assume some outbreak on the entire planet will happen and it will cause a recession.

So they just sell their positions at a profit and get out of the market. The markets correct a little and in a few weeks resume their upcourse. I can be wrong but its still very close to its ATH and this is a very healthy pullback. Most likely this is purely driven by fear.

[pooya87]

i have a feeling that a mass panic is building up in all the different markets around the world for no reason except the excuse called Corona-virus. if you paid attention, they started spreading FUD and tried causing panic in bitcoin market a while back but interestingly enough they failed as bitcoin went up in price instead of going down and reached $10k.
we have seen stock market plunges in many cases due to this but nothing major has happened like a big crash but i think it is still a possibility if the panic grows more among investors. would be interesting to see how bitcoin reacts though, will it rise like last time?

[exstasie]

I think what is going on is that the media is scaring many retail stock traders out of their positions in fear of some global epidemic which might cause a recession. I think many retail traders are up a large %'s in the last few years and they want to preserve profits. So they see headlines like coronavirus and assume some outbreak on the entire planet will happen and it will cause a recession.

So they just sell their positions at a profit and get out of the market. The markets correct a little and in a few weeks resume their upcourse. I can be wrong but its still very close to its ATH and this is a very healthy pullback. Most likely this is purely driven by fear.

On the weekly chart, the drop is hardly even visible. Still above the 20-week MA, still within 5% of the ATH. Not too worried about it either.

I do hope the coronavirus stuff simmers down soon. On its own, a pandemic might not be enough to cause a recession, but it could help catalyze one that was already on the way:

Tom McClellan, a prominent technical analyst, said the yield curve inversion that occurred in the summer of last year is still in force and that market participants have been too dismissive of that recession signal (see attached chart): “Generally speaking, it takes about 15 months for those effects to show up in overall economic data,” he wrote in a Thursday research note.

“Last year’s yield curve inversion is still yet to be felt, and that is not even factoring the additional economic slowdown effect from the coronavirus,” McClellan wrote.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-coronavirus-outbreak-is-delivering-a-fresh-dose-of-recession-fear-to-the-stock-market-2020-02-22

[mk4]

As far as I know(my guess, because as we all know, there's really no way to know for sure), it's not due to the corona virus itself, but specifically, the fear of the corona virus. I guess a good number of investors are expecting the virus to spread to the west and stuff to go worse from here in general.

Or yea, of course also one possibility is that we've been in a bull market for freakin who knows how long already. I'm actually liking seeing a bit of red for a change.

[wheelz1200]

I'm looking at reports and a lot of them are saying it's due to the coronovirus, I don't know how much of an impact that would have on the American markets but it looks to be quite a big one, my small position lost $100 in profit since Friday. The rest of the international markets I.e the vuk and ftse 100uk also look to have responded but they seem to be a delayed response (unless anythings got worse that I haven't noticed from ignoring mainstream media and its general fear mongering).

American companies on the Dow jones and Nasdaq markets rely on manufacturing in china to keep their inventory levels high enough to sustain their business.  As this pandemic spreads and factories in china keep closing that will directly weight heavy on business.  But to be honest, most of it is out of the fear of uncertainty.

[el kaka22]

I am not shocked, there is less and less money in the world and there are more and more money in the whales. People assume companies like amazon or wallmart can survive with getting richer and richer but that is not correct, when your workers go hungry, they are not going to use you.

We need to find a way to bring money back to poor people and help them get better instead of forcing people to work at 2 different jobs to survive.

I have recently read somewhere that one dude has 5 jobs, he has one job that he wakes up at 4 am and works until 1 pm, another job that starts at 2 pm and ends at 8 pm and he drove uber after that, he also had a part time gig for two days a week for covering when he has 1 day-2 day breaks from his regular job because they are 5-6 days a week jobs, so he covers his free days with another job. Dude was not making too much money, that dude was literally barely living.

[gentlemand]

Well if some stocks fall because of it then I can see bitcoin and ethereum taking a bit of an advantage over this since they've proved to be 'fairly' stable so far while the other markets haven't been and even quite a bit more prosporous...

If it becomes clear that the economic party is officially over then we'll see what crypto is finally made of in such conditions. Drippy fecal matter is my guess. I can't see it happening from one event like this even if it does have repercussions. I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

[Harlot]

It's the Coronavirus for sure, we really don't need to dive more into this in order to find a connection since it's already in front of our eyes. And what is that connection? It's simple the words “Made in China” is something that we just need to remember, products of companies like  Apple, Nike, Tesla, Intel, P&G and hundreds more of US companies are made mostly if not all in China. Of course with the annoucement of factories being forced to shutdown would not only create a scare in the global market including the US but also affect their revenu potential directly. As of right now their FUD is something caused by not only the noise surrounding the Coronavirus itself but also the fundamental performance of these US companies.

[jackg]

It's the Coronavirus for sure, we really don't need to dive more into this in order to find a connection since it's already in front of our eyes.

This came up in my youtube feed recently: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HofvVfSSaI

I don't know if much has developed, but the market normally are the first to take things seriously so I doubt it's that still.

If it becomes clear that the economic party is officially over then we'll see what crypto is finally made of in such conditions. Drippy fecal matter is my guess. I can't see it happening from one event like this even if it does have repercussions. I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

Might be nice if real estate starts to colapse in this country. I'd say the higher price of housing makes companies put quality into the products they produce but it doesn't anymore...

And yeah once other markets see a correction some funds will move into bitcoin, espeically since the recent weeknesses in gold these days since it's overinflated so much...

[Harlot]

It's the Coronavirus for sure, we really don't need to dive more into this in order to find a connection since it's already in front of our eyes.

This came up in my youtube feed recently: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HofvVfSSaI

I don't know if much has developed, but the market normally are the first to take things seriously so I doubt it's that still.

Right now there is still a lot of possibilities but even US companies are already admitting that the Coronavirus is the main reason why their stock prices drop. Aside from them having factories in there, China is also one their biggest market and there is no denting that their revenue potential is already taking a hit because of their current situation. And like I said if things will get worst there we might see an even bigger drop in the global market.

[jackg]

I did see a report earlier on the news that was saying if areas are put under quarrenteen, fixed salary workers are still entitled to their pay from the company... I'm not sure how the sick pay chema works here but I can see thst causing huge issues for some small companies if they have to pay staff to not work.

[Linkkoin]

I have a feeling that drop wasn't due to any virus.  The stock market has been on a tear for years now and I'm surprised we haven't seen more of these 3-4% corrections--and hell, I remember when the S&P 500 was stuck below 1000 for the longest time.  I'm sure a big event like a viral contagion can affect things, but I just don't think it's that in this case.  Could be wrong, of course.

Self-fulfilled prophecy. To be honest many stock investors even a year ago had been saying that the new stock crisis is already late. Depending on the measures taken by the authorities and the time of travel ban in countries, the virus can impact the economy by somehow disrupting the demand-supply chain (because if factories are not working due to staff shortage, production will be halted). If eg. car manufacturers because of that will be able to produce for few months in a row 50% or less of planned vehicles, this could trigger the panic sell-off on a huge scale capable of starting that crisis.

[STT]

Its true China is the backing to many global firms  but the actual virus isnt so deadly to working age people.   It might kill but not to sound too heartless about it, but it would mostly kill those who are in poor health anyway.   Otherwise this isnt that deadly an issue, I think the vast majority recover.   Obviously they need to develop a kind of treatment to issue and thats the 'cure' the market wants.

The wider issue is the knock the virus gives to business, it wouldn't matter normally but we've been rising for years in price but the actual good health of companies is over stated due to weak money, loose monetary policy.     This natural deflationary event is a fly in the soup to central banker printing presses.   The initial reaction is knock the price of everything seems like.

BTC price is back to the 200 day average and its gone further then I thought it might initially but people will sell anything and alot of traders do so with borrowed money, hot money is very much a thing where QE is so prevalent.   We benefit from that so its only fair BTC takes a knock too.    Maybe Tone Vays is gonna be right after all
   My normal take would be to expecting a sell to relent and we recover upwards to confirm the previous action.   To retrace some is normal but first it has to see some pressure release, I'm looking for recovery above 200 day just on buoyancy grounds nothing to guess bearish or bullish after.

[exstasie]

The carnage continued today. The S&P 500 is down another 3.5% from Monday's close.

Let's get a little perspective though. Here's a look at similar (or larger) selloffs that occurred over the past 2 years. After each one, the market eventually continued on to a new ATH:



The 3K area is an important S/R level and also a psychological level. I expect a strong reaction off that area. I'm still bullish on stocks in the intermediate and long term, and I believe that will encourage continued bullish behavior in BTCUSD too.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Uh....yeah.  I don't generally watch news, but I've been watching Youtube videos for the past day, and I have changed my opinion about the corona virus not affecting markets.  It certainly looks like it is doing exactly that, and I think a lot of investors are really scared.  Big money investors are always looking toward the future in terms of earnings, etc., and it seems like they think the big corporations are going to take big hits.  That remains to be seen, but the fear is real.

And I guess the stock market took another huge plunge today (I haven't looked recently).  While I'd say that's to be expected, given that we've been in a bull market for about eleven years, I think a big factor actually is a fear of a worldwide contagion.  Yikes.

[exstasie]

Uh....yeah.  I don't generally watch news, but I've been watching Youtube videos for the past day, and I have changed my opinion about the corona virus not affecting markets.  It certainly looks like it is doing exactly that, and I think a lot of investors are really scared.  Big money investors are always looking toward the future in terms of earnings, etc., and it seems like they think the big corporations are going to take big hits.  That remains to be seen, but the fear is real.

And I guess the stock market took another huge plunge today (I haven't looked recently).  While I'd say that's to be expected, given that we've been in a bull market for about eleven years, I think a big factor actually is a fear of a worldwide contagion.  Yikes.

I'm impressed bears took it right down through 3K!



Bounce here and we're still in the realm of "normal correction." Keep dumping through 2,800 at this rate and it starts to look considerably worse.

Lots of FUD to sift through. The infection rate in China is plummeting but since the number of countries with new cases is increasing (even with low fatality rate and number of cases) the WHO has upgraded the risk of impact to "very high" globally. The markets are panicking on news like this.

My natural inclination is to play the contrarian. Those selling out of fear right now will probably be punished by the market. This shit is pretty nuts though. My crystal ball is sort of murky.

[pixie85]

I have a feeling that drop wasn't due to any virus.  The stock market has been on a tear for years now and I'm surprised we haven't seen more of these 3-4% corrections--and hell, I remember when the S&P 500 was stuck below 1000 for the longest time.  I'm sure a big event like a viral contagion can affect things, but I just don't think it's that in this case.  Could be wrong, of course.

There was a website that showed the death toll from corona virus, but I forgot what it is.  Is the number getting much bigger or what?  In any event, I don't think it's anywhere near the death toll from 9/11, and that's a big event that actually did affect the stock market for quite a while.

Here's one of the maps, updated daily.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html

I also don't think that it's the fault of the virus or the panic that follows. The panic is much greater than the risk because I'm in the EU where there are almost nocases of the virus and people are already storming pharmacies, concerts and other events are being postponed, in the news reporters are telling people to make sure they have some food and water stashed at home just in case.

I know that this has nothing to do with Bitcoin and won't change my mind about investments but many people think that in case of an epidemic they won't be able to go to a bank or an ATM and may lose Internet acccess so they prefer to have cash.

[STT]

Its easier to drop this much after an excessive rise and many thought it looked as much for a while.  Many stocks had a similar kind of look to a parabolic formation which only ends with a sell like this.    Its a good trigger but not the total explanation.   
  I think the profit from here is playing out the sharp recoveries that are possible, each will sell also but eventually it'll go back into some trend.   Probably it just carries on upwards and this sell isnt even that great, I think it can find support here and the SPY close today was quite positive so at least some will be watching for longs on Monday.
   BTC I think could also catch some positive moves, I dont think either are going to move down all in one go from here.   Its adjustment and less gradient and over time we'll smooth out probably, bit early to call but often it can rise alot after a fall.

[exstasie]

The daily closed as a bullish hammer candlestick. A bit wide-bodied but it'll do:



Keep your eyes on the pre-market data during the weekend close: https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

S&P 500 mini futures are up another 31 points since the markets shut. If the market gaps up on Monday's open with a strong green candle, we'll have all 3 pieces required for a bullish morning star reversal:



It's painful waiting this stuff out, but I think both stocks and BTC are beginning to exhibit bullish reversal signs.

Plus, we have fundamentals to consider:

• Fed Is Ready to Cut Rates in Response to Coronavirus
• Bitcoin halving ETA date: 12 May 2020

[adaseb]

The bullish daily close doesn't mean anything and I will tell you why.

Back when I used to day trade the stock market in 2008, I noticed that usually during end of stock trading day and especially end of week on Friday, in the last hour there was usually a rally. Later on I realised that it was nothing more than short coverings. Why? Basically markets were very volatile back then and some positive news over the weekend could cause a gap up and leave many short traders holding huge losses.

Todays close is similar. Basically no trader wants to hold a short position over the weekend in case something positive develops and they get a nasty gap up. When the markets open Sunday evening we might resume the down-trend.

[CaVO32]

Uh....yeah.  I don't generally watch news, but I've been watching Youtube videos for the past day, and I have changed my opinion about the corona virus not affecting markets.  It certainly looks like it is doing exactly that, and I think a lot of investors are really scared.  Big money investors are always looking toward the future in terms of earnings, etc., and it seems like they think the big corporations are going to take big hits.  That remains to be seen, but the fear is real.

And I guess the stock market took another huge plunge today (I haven't looked recently).  While I'd say that's to be expected, given that we've been in a bull market for about eleven years, I think a big factor actually is a fear of a worldwide contagion.  Yikes.

the impact of this epidemic is now seen in the world market. because of the worldwide infection and the increasing number of cases around the globe, people are scared and businesses are shutting down for a certain period of time, whenever there is positive case/s within the area. the economy has been hit real hard by this health crisis. i hope the pharmaceutical industry will develop the vaccine fast though there is one pharma that is claiming to have develop the vaccine but still need to undergo human testing.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-first-coronavirus-vaccine-for-human-testing-11582579099
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/25/business/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine/index.html

but I don't think coronavirus has big impact in S & P at the moment.

[dragonvslinux]

Looks like it might be finding support from the VPVR point of control since the $2300 lows in December 2018 as well as 100 Week MA.
Weekly RSI is touching neutral territory (arguably a zone buy), CMF remains bullish. It fall below this level though, then its fucked imo.



Pretty good dragonfly looking doji reversal candle from oversold conditions on the Daily. Wouldn't be surprised to see an upwards gap open on Monday:



Breaking back above the 200 Day MA around $3050 will be challenging though, given the Daily time-frame is now bearish.

[FanEagle]

Media is a double edge sword, you may not want to watch regular mainstream media on television to get your information which you are definitely right because they are doing whatever type of news their owners want and that's it, they are not doing anything that is real or truth because that usually doesn't work out for the news neither so they are basically just focusing on the lies that would help them.

However, do not forget that there is no central organization that checks the facts of youtube channels neither so they can very well make fake videos and fake facts and make you believe in something that doesn't exist as well. Not saying the video you watched is like that but there is always that risk and you should always be careful.

[exstasie]

Looks like it might be finding support from the VPVR point of control since the $2300 lows in December 2018 as well as 100 Week MA.
Weekly RSI is touching neutral territory (arguably a zone buy), CMF remains bullish. It fall below this level though, then its fucked imo.

Yep, it's do or die time. We're leading up to a really important weekly open.

First corona virus death in the US, makes for an ominous headline: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1st-coronavirus-death-u-s-officials-say-n1145931

The bullish daily close doesn't mean anything and I will tell you why.

Back when I used to day trade the stock market in 2008, I noticed that usually during end of stock trading day and especially end of week on Friday, in the last hour there was usually a rally. Later on I realised that it was nothing more than short coverings. Why? Basically markets were very volatile back then and some positive news over the weekend could cause a gap up and leave many short traders holding huge losses.

Todays close is similar. Basically no trader wants to hold a short position over the weekend in case something positive develops and they get a nasty gap up. When the markets open Sunday evening we might resume the down-trend.

After a typical week in the markets, I would say you are right. The market sunk 12% during the week, right into a high volume consolidation area as dragonvslinux showed, so it's anything but typical. We can't explain away the price action that way.

The question is will the markets still be in panic on Monday morning?

[exstasie]

It fall below this level though, then its fucked imo.

Yep, it's do or die time. We're leading up to a really important weekly open.

The question is will the markets still be in panic on Monday morning?

Finally, some relief in the markets. The S&P 500 gapped up on the weekly open. If it can manage to close the day above 3020 or so, it will print a solid morning star reversal:





Scary times but the panic seems to be subsiding, which by extension is good for BTC. I'm not surprised to see BTC relief rallying alongside stocks. Epic futures volume also suggests exhaustion. Look to the left to see what happened the last time we saw similar volume after a selloff:

[STT]

Is the volume good enough, its just a correction within a bear move for the moment but 2900 or so is a decent place for it to find a bottom price.   I think will repeat a bit here, relief rally, sell and so on until volume of previous sells is worked out.

BTC is doing ok, its not been pushed to do anything especially negative but 9000 is some cap now I think and has been in the past.   Positive phase, 9050 confirmed and 8700 is two day average which will quite quickly catch up.   Proper area of bearish sell is around 8500 again we've seen it previously and its an old trend now

[jackg]

this guy did a video on it recently and I bought back after watching it and doing some of my own analysis (my position wnet up so I readjusted the tight stop i'd set to be above breakeven).

We'll have to continue on further this week to see if it improves. I always see more of an uptake on friday in the UK so it might hold the same with us in this scenario too (I mean in my timezone for the s&p).

[exstasie]

Finally, some relief in the markets. The S&P 500 gapped up on the weekly open. If it can manage to close the day above 3020 or so, it will print a solid morning star reversal:

The market did a lot more than 3020!



Morning star reversal confirmed. Panic selling stopped in its tracks. It looks like panicky retail investors just got totally fleeced and shaken out of the market.

The whole corona virus thing is being overblown. It looks like smart money knows that. Some basic facts regarding the impact:

As of Mar. 2, 2020, the flu is showing much more of an impact on Americans than COVID-19.

COVID-19: Approximately 3,085 deaths reported worldwide; 6 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 2, 2020.

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

[justdimin]

Obviously, the smart people would know about it, I have literally said that cancer kills more people but when you look at it you can literally see even the common flu is taking more lives than corona, I never understood why people were so scared of corona to begin with, sure it is a new thing and we would rather not have it but to have 24/7 live news coverage for something that killed only 3000 people so far is idiotic, there are even man made wars that kills each other a lot more frequently than that which could be stopped, so there is all those thousands of stuff that kills people a lot more in numbers than corona but for some reason everyone is scared of corona and financial world gets affected, I will never know.

[alani123]

Similar situation with the Athens stock exchange market. People were expecting great losses and there was a lot of divestment. After all, Athens is a center for investment for the Chinese. Chinese corporation have leased the country's main port for 100 years! But today the market recovered with gains at 6.38% in a single session! Just a small market but it shows how fragile markets can be under a sentiment.

[jackg]

Obviously, the smart people would know about it, I have literally said that cancer kills more people but when you look at it you can literally see even the common flu is taking more lives than corona, I never understood why people were so scared of corona to begin with, sure it is a new thing and we would rather not have it but to have 24/7 live news coverage for something that killed only 3000 people so far is idiotic, there are even man made wars that kills each other a lot more frequently than that which could be stopped, so there is all those thousands of stuff that kills people a lot more in numbers than corona but for some reason everyone is scared of corona and financial world gets affected, I will never know.

From what I know so far:

• The disease itself is cold-like in structure (hence the corona name)
• The YOUNGEST reported death from the disease is 34
• The disease causes pneumonia in patients and that's what causes the problem, the actual virus doesn't do as much damage as you might expect and the average person will likely just get cold like symptoms

The US media is doing what it always does and making things look like they've appeared from nothing and only since the problem has come to them are they actually worried. China haven't down awfully to stop the spread of the virus (they've done better than Japan with that cruise ship)...

Most countries will have a lot of accomodation for things like this anyway to put suspected people in. And they should really already have a plan...

[pooya87]

Obviously, the smart people would know about it, I have literally said that cancer kills more people but when you look at it you can literally see even the common flu is taking more lives than corona, I never understood why people were so scared of corona to begin with, sure it is a new thing and we would rather not have it but to have 24/7 live news coverage for something that killed only 3000 people so far is idiotic, there are even man made wars that kills each other a lot more frequently than that which could be stopped, so there is all those thousands of stuff that kills people a lot more in numbers than corona but for some reason everyone is scared of corona and financial world gets affected, I will never know.

that is a bad comparison. for example if you have close contact someone who has cancer you are not going to get cancer but that is not true about a contagious virus such as COVID-19 that can easily spread from one person to another.
additionally it is a new strand of the virus, another mutation and who knows what we are going to end up with.

[exstasie]

The carnage continues in the stock markets. Panic all around.



Looking at corrections since 2008, this is now bigger than 2018 or 2011. This is the biggest drop since 2008, though we aren't anywhere close to 2008 magnitude of decline yet.

BTC is in a panic frenzy of its own. Just saw a $1,600 drop in a single 30-minute candle. Margin longs just got completely annihilated, as did all of this years gains.

Things are looking pretty grim at the moment across all markets. Enough blood in the streets yet, or have we seen nothing yet?

[gentlemand]

Looking at corrections since 2008, this is now bigger than 2018 or 2011. This is the biggest drop since 2008, though we aren't anywhere close to 2008 magnitude of decline yet.

BTC is in a panic frenzy of its own. Just saw a $1,600 drop in a single 30-minute candle. Margin longs just got completely annihilated, as did all of this years gains.

Things are looking pretty grim at the moment across all markets. Enough blood in the streets yet, or have we seen nothing yet?

The British market is heading for the worst day since 1987.

I guess we'll see about blood in the streets, but since all this bonkersdom threatens the very survival of many companies in a way that's never been this stark before I expect some turds in the streets before it's over.

[jackg]

Guess who put $250 on a short and turned it to $500...

That's probably the first time I've called the trend too so my losses are almost recovered.

Does anyone know if we're in a recession yet? We're about 23% down from what I can tell and I thought it was anything below 20% (unless that's a bear market).

[gentlemand]

Does anyone know if we're in a recession yet? We're about 23% down from what I can tell and I thought it was anything below 20% (unless that's a bear market).

It is indeed a 20% drop to make a bear market. I presume to declare a recession you need to analyse a longer period of time before calling it. I would not be too surprised if they decide to just fake the figure even when everyone's pants are clearly on fire.

[jackg]

Does anyone know if we're in a recession yet? We're about 23% down from what I can tell and I thought it was anything below 20% (unless that's a bear market).

It is indeed a 20% drop to make a bear market. I presume to declare a recession you need to analyse a longer period of time before calling it. I would not be too surprised if they decide to just fake the figure even when everyone's pants are clearly on fire.

UKX (I think that's vanguards ftse 100 tracking for the UK) isn't at a 20% drop yet, probably closer to 15...

I guess the higher you fly the harder you fall...

[gentlemand]

I guess the higher you fly the harder you fall...

Is it not an official bear with the Dow Jones now?

America seemed rather more bubbly than Britain up until THIS but I don't pay a massive amount of attention to stock markets. I guess the next 3-6 weeks will decide the course of economies for quite a long time to come.

[jackg]

That chart is quite interesting, it looks to have been falling for the past month. Currently at 84.8% ath, it's a transport index afaik so does it generally fall by less idk? Surely it had a lot of assets that can keep being profitible...

[figmentofmyass]

Is it not an official bear with the Dow Jones now?

according to the talking heads at CNBC, it's official after 20%. with today's losses, the dow jones is down 28.5% from the top.

America seemed rather more bubbly than Britain up until THIS but I don't pay a massive amount of attention to stock markets. I guess the next 3-6 weeks will decide the course of economies for quite a long time to come.

that certainly seems to be the case. i'm even tempted to say the writing is on the wall and we're already in a meltdown similar to 2008. this crash has a very october 08 feel to it.

[exstasie]

Things are looking pretty grim at the moment across all markets. Enough blood in the streets yet, or have we seen nothing yet?

The British market is heading for the worst day since 1987.

Now that you mention it, Tim West predicted a 1987-style dump in the stock market a few months back. He's now appeared with a bottom call:



The indices and ETFs are closed but futures already went there and are trying to form a spring. I wonder if a relief rally is finally in order.

[jackg]

Now that you mention it, Tim West predicted a 1987-style dump in the stock market a few months back. He's now appeared with a bottom call:

Be interesting if that is the bottom, I highly doubt a bottom will come in so quick. I haven't lived through a crash before and watched the markets but it looks as if a crash is followed by a capitulation that's generally quite long.

The indices and ETFs are closed but futures already went there and are trying to form a spring. I wonder if a relief rally is finally in order.

I thought the FED were pumping $1.5 trillion into it to try to encourage a relief rally and support the price. I don't watch anything to do with mainstream media anymore but I think the US are worrying about all this quite a bit from what I've seen on Youtube. AFAIK the booming economy was Trump's main push forward into the election. We're at least at a yearly ATL.

It seemed to bounce of 2500 (the s&p) so we may see a small break and a potential trand upwards. However, the stock market often rises on a friday (I think it's a day a lot of people on the informal/freelance markets get paid so they can put funds into stocks but I could be completely wrong).


Separate question, SPX and SPY are different right? They're both on "etoro" and at different prices.


Also I calculated the down wrong, it's a 26-27% loss afaik, I put the wrong number in first and got 1/1.26 (~88%).

[exstasie]

Now that you mention it, Tim West predicted a 1987-style dump in the stock market a few months back. He's now appeared with a bottom call:

Be interesting if that is the bottom, I highly doubt a bottom will come in so quick. I haven't lived through a crash before and watched the markets but it looks as if a crash is followed by a capitulation that's generally quite long.

The stock market, like BTC, is prone to fast panic-driven crashes. The 1987 crash is one such example, with Black Monday occurring in the final week:



The current chart for comparison:



Similar to the above example, this bounce from the 2,300s is probably a dead cat bounce and we'll go back to retest the bottom area, maybe a couple months from now.

It could easily be a higher low though, just like 1987. Either way this 13% relief rally from the bottom suggests the panic stage is over.

People have taken the corona virus panic way too far. After a 30% drop, I would say the corona virus risks (a few points off the global GDP or maybe a small contraction) have been priced in. At some point in the near future, reality is going to sink in that life will go on and the corona virus is not the economic kill switch people feared.

Separate question, SPX and SPY are different right? They're both on "etoro" and at different prices. 

The SPX is the actual S&P 500 index. The SPY is an ETF that tracks it.

[jackg]

It already looks to be recovering yes... And this sint really the optimum season for spending anyway... Its not like its Christmas.

We just need bitcoin to recover now  ...

Edit: Sorry, I didn't realise you merited me before I merited you, just realised now. I was meriting for the spy spx justifications...

Edit, if I put 60k in an investment now-2 years time, what's the likelihood of the markets 10xing like they have done in around 40 years? ()

That'd be some nice retirement...

The bounce has also continued on etoro.

[exstasie]

Edit, if I put 60k in an investment now-2 years time, what's the likelihood of the markets 10xing like they have done in around 40 years? ()

That'd be some nice retirement...

The bounce has also continued on etoro.

Things are pretty murky right now. It's hard to predict 6 months out, let alone 40 years.

My general view: even if this is a 1987-style crash and the bull market resumes next year, we did not reach "blood in the streets" in a generational sense. The years before another 2008-style crash (or worse) are still numbered, and you could probably count them on 1 or 2 hands.

So there will probably be better buying opportunities years down the road. To pull out some random numbers, I could see the SPX hitting 4,500 this decade followed by a crash to sub-2K.

[beerlover]

By the looks of it, the hit is not stopping anytime soon and recovery will not be quite quick neither. Maybe the markets will recover eventually, it always does and even in 2008 the market eventually recovered as well, it took years to get back where it was but it did managed to recover and even go higher than 2008 levels, which means it will eventually go back to what it was one day, however it looks like this sudden fall will probably recover after years.

I just hope that Trump gets reelected just so he will have to face what he has done and has to recover from it, dude removed ALL the money stocks made under him with one bad call, he has spent 2 trillion dollars on tax breaks total to make sure the stocks go up and all of that is gone now, that money could have gone to healthcare, education, infrastructure, stuff that wouldn't erode in a day, but he failed at it.

Now the election is near, if someone else takes over they will have to recover for what Trump has done, it would be unfair, let him take care of his own mistakes.

[exstasie]

The Fed just cut interest rates to zero and launched a $700 billion QE program!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html

I expect bullish CME weekly opens in 30 minutes and continued relief rallying in world markets.

BTCUSD already jumped up 8% on the announcement and is on the verge of a significant technical breakout to the upside: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54035600#msg54035600

[jackg]

I'd look to break 5850 and then 6000 before thinking of opening a long for contract trading. Standard buys should've executed by now at 5050-4300 and anywhere between... Only time will tell what we're going to end up doing. Although 2k in either direction isn't unexpected for me anymore


Other ineresting news, on etoro, only 62% of investors lose money. That's a very low number afaik the average is around 72-76%...

[adaseb]

I'd look to break 5850 and then 6000 before thinking of opening a long for contract trading. Standard buys should've executed by now at 5050-4300 and anywhere between... Only time will tell what we're going to end up doing. Although 2k in either direction isn't unexpected for me anymore


Other ineresting news, on etoro, only 62% of investors lose money. That's a very low number afaik the average is around 72-76%...

The average is more like 99% or so. By investors I am talking about traders who take trades with an average hold of a few days or less. Those people who got some IRA and buy stocks for retirement usually make money since stocks generally always go up unless the company goes bankrupt.

Also keep in mind that someone will try trading, lose money and quit after 6 months or so. While someone who is succesful might do it for 10 years. So the percentages can be skewed because the 10+ trader obviously will be profitable and counted in the percentages while those traders who quit trading 6 months ago won't be included which skews the numbers to be more positive than they really are.

 

[malevolent]

The average is more like 99% or so. By investors I am talking about traders who take trades with an average hold of a few days or less. Those people who got some IRA and buy stocks for retirement usually make money since stocks generally always go up unless the company goes bankrupt.

Numbers I've usually seen were around 90% for day traders and similar speculators, and ~95-98% for forex traders. Forex.com has a warning about CFDs, claiming that 69% retail investors lose money when trading them, but they provide seems low.

[STT]

Market will waver right here but I generally think the situation is quite bullish for price.   I say price because I'm not try to be ignorant of negatives for many people, the virus stats and so on but price is the result or ratio of currency vs value.   For SP500 we are talking about operating companies that are continuing to do business,  I'm seeing for example a global telecoms company fall 30% but you cant tell me people stop talking on their phone, if anything they may increase usage from less direct contact.

The charts show we should have hesitancy on this slight bounce from open but I think the market has a bottom also that BTC shows it can put in a bottom price here also.
Thats the long term view, this is shorter term speculation chart just showing the lows previous can provide resistance to action right now.

[jackg]

Vodafone seems to have taken a huge hit too, I'm down 50% with them.

But everything's down. Tesco and morrisons both had a stock fall and you can't say people haven't been using grocery stores these past few days...

Utility companies are also down, but tha tight be reasonable since there may be issues with sewage in a few days/weeks if people couldn't use toilet rolls and couldnt be bothered to step in the shower.

[Wilhelm]

Vodafone seems to have taken a huge hit too, I'm down 50% with them.

But everything's down. Tesco and morrisons both had a stock fall and you can't say people haven't been using grocery stores these past few days...

Utility companies are also down, but tha tight be reasonable since there may be issues with sewage in a few days/weeks if people couldn't use toilet rolls and couldnt be bothered to step in the shower.

Everything is a brick. Just hang on, in a month people will start to see light at the end of the tunnel.
Stocks are only tanking because people need the money to buy TP

[exstasie]

Everything is a brick. Just hang on, in a month people will start to see light at the end of the tunnel.

It might take a couple months and one dead cat bounce before it's behind us for good, but I see lots of similarities to the 1987 stock market crash. A sudden, short lived crash, then back to climbing the wall of worry. I still think there is a decent chance this isn't the event that triggers the next 2008 or prolonged recession.

I do think this will considerably delay any exponential move up in BTC. I'm a convert to Masterluc's long term triangle, or something like it. Bear market consolidation into 2021 seems reasonable.

[amishmanish]

--snip--
 Maybe the markets will recover eventually, it always does and even in 2008 the market eventually recovered as well, it took years to get back where it was but it did managed to recover and even go higher than 2008 levels, which means it will eventually go back to what it was one day, however it looks like this sudden fall will probably recover after years.

We always assume that the markets will always recover. During the last 2 crashes, the world has simultaneously been going through an era of expansion fuelled by consumption and technology.
In the 90s it was such grass-root trends like petroleum, automotive, real estate that fed the subsequent recoveries and booms. People bought and worked and partied as our work culture and consumption patterns changed signficantly.

The next recovery and booms were triggered by the services sectors with companies like Google, Apple, Amazon opening up more avenues of consumption. People watched, subscribed and learnt to work their asses off while always remaining connected and driven by success and productivity mantras.

I feel like these consumption patters are not sustainable. The new generation isn't willing to spend itself milling away while consuming without any thought of consequences. With the kind of time-off that the west is going to get from the lockdowns, i wonder how the consumption patterns would change. Would people still care about the rat race and the newest I-phone once they realize how fickle it all is?

[adaseb]

This reminds me very well of the 2008 market crash. The top was in Oct 2007 and people assumed that support held on Jan 2008 when it looked like it was going to bounce and then on Sept 2008 it had massive selling all the way until Nov 2008 and it looked like the bottom was in and then one more time in March 2009 was actually the bottom.

So we might rally for the next few weeks but eventually will break the low, and then that low will form support and a few weeks and months later it will get broken again, and maybe another leg or 2 down and pretty soon all the knife catcher will be bankrupt and the cycle will repeat. Hence its not always good to just buy whenever there is a huge dump because it can still go lower sometime in the near future.

[gentlemand]

I'm wondering whether they'll give any consideration to suspending stock trading. There comes a point where there's so much chaos and uncertainty it becomes impossible to price anything. Then again maybe suspending the media would do the most good.

[jackg]

I'm wondering whether they'll give any consideration to suspending stock trading. There comes a point where there's so much chaos and uncertainty it becomes impossible to price anything. Then again maybe suspending the media would do the most good.

Someone on YouTube was saying they'd anticipate something to come out potentially at the weekend or when the markets close one day to suspend trading for a fortnight...

Tbh I doubt something like that would be done since Europe are still able to trade a closed American stock so our market cap could crash a lot faster and leave Americans with less money.

I'm getting a bit confused as to why the governments want to keep banks as liquid as possible as it seems counter productive for maintaining the stock market and there is currently no asset that seems to be safe from this volatility.


Update, I ended up buying $100 in shares of a grocery store, I've had a roller coaster today. When I woke up, I was at $50 and now I'm at $96... I don't really know where all this volatility is coming from - at a guess a lot of people are probably pulling out of index funds...

[figmentofmyass]

I'm wondering whether they'll give any consideration to suspending stock trading. There comes a point where there's so much chaos and uncertainty it becomes impossible to price anything. Then again maybe suspending the media would do the most good.

they should have suspended trading last week. that's what they did directly after the 9/11 attacks, which likely saved the markets from a complete disaster. the panic died down after that.