S&P took quite a hit today

[jackg]

Guess who put $250 on a short and turned it to $500...

That's probably the first time I've called the trend too so my losses are almost recovered.

Does anyone know if we're in a recession yet? We're about 23% down from what I can tell and I thought it was anything below 20% (unless that's a bear market).

[1714931849]

1714931849

[1714931849]

1714931849

[1714931849]

1714931849

[1714931849]

1714931849

[gentlemand]

Does anyone know if we're in a recession yet? We're about 23% down from what I can tell and I thought it was anything below 20% (unless that's a bear market).

It is indeed a 20% drop to make a bear market. I presume to declare a recession you need to analyse a longer period of time before calling it. I would not be too surprised if they decide to just fake the figure even when everyone's pants are clearly on fire.

[jackg]

Does anyone know if we're in a recession yet? We're about 23% down from what I can tell and I thought it was anything below 20% (unless that's a bear market).

It is indeed a 20% drop to make a bear market. I presume to declare a recession you need to analyse a longer period of time before calling it. I would not be too surprised if they decide to just fake the figure even when everyone's pants are clearly on fire.

UKX (I think that's vanguards ftse 100 tracking for the UK) isn't at a 20% drop yet, probably closer to 15...

I guess the higher you fly the harder you fall...

[gentlemand]

I guess the higher you fly the harder you fall...

Is it not an official bear with the Dow Jones now?

America seemed rather more bubbly than Britain up until THIS but I don't pay a massive amount of attention to stock markets. I guess the next 3-6 weeks will decide the course of economies for quite a long time to come.

[jackg]

That chart is quite interesting, it looks to have been falling for the past month. Currently at 84.8% ath, it's a transport index afaik so does it generally fall by less idk? Surely it had a lot of assets that can keep being profitible...

[figmentofmyass]

Is it not an official bear with the Dow Jones now?

according to the talking heads at CNBC, it's official after 20%. with today's losses, the dow jones is down 28.5% from the top.

America seemed rather more bubbly than Britain up until THIS but I don't pay a massive amount of attention to stock markets. I guess the next 3-6 weeks will decide the course of economies for quite a long time to come.

that certainly seems to be the case. i'm even tempted to say the writing is on the wall and we're already in a meltdown similar to 2008. this crash has a very october 08 feel to it.

[exstasie]

Things are looking pretty grim at the moment across all markets. Enough blood in the streets yet, or have we seen nothing yet?

The British market is heading for the worst day since 1987.

Now that you mention it, Tim West predicted a 1987-style dump in the stock market a few months back. He's now appeared with a bottom call:



The indices and ETFs are closed but futures already went there and are trying to form a spring. I wonder if a relief rally is finally in order.

[jackg]

Now that you mention it, Tim West predicted a 1987-style dump in the stock market a few months back. He's now appeared with a bottom call:

Be interesting if that is the bottom, I highly doubt a bottom will come in so quick. I haven't lived through a crash before and watched the markets but it looks as if a crash is followed by a capitulation that's generally quite long.

The indices and ETFs are closed but futures already went there and are trying to form a spring. I wonder if a relief rally is finally in order.

I thought the FED were pumping $1.5 trillion into it to try to encourage a relief rally and support the price. I don't watch anything to do with mainstream media anymore but I think the US are worrying about all this quite a bit from what I've seen on Youtube. AFAIK the booming economy was Trump's main push forward into the election. We're at least at a yearly ATL.

It seemed to bounce of 2500 (the s&p) so we may see a small break and a potential trand upwards. However, the stock market often rises on a friday (I think it's a day a lot of people on the informal/freelance markets get paid so they can put funds into stocks but I could be completely wrong).


Separate question, SPX and SPY are different right? They're both on "etoro" and at different prices.


Also I calculated the down wrong, it's a 26-27% loss afaik, I put the wrong number in first and got 1/1.26 (~88%).

[exstasie]

Now that you mention it, Tim West predicted a 1987-style dump in the stock market a few months back. He's now appeared with a bottom call:

Be interesting if that is the bottom, I highly doubt a bottom will come in so quick. I haven't lived through a crash before and watched the markets but it looks as if a crash is followed by a capitulation that's generally quite long.

The stock market, like BTC, is prone to fast panic-driven crashes. The 1987 crash is one such example, with Black Monday occurring in the final week:



The current chart for comparison:



Similar to the above example, this bounce from the 2,300s is probably a dead cat bounce and we'll go back to retest the bottom area, maybe a couple months from now.

It could easily be a higher low though, just like 1987. Either way this 13% relief rally from the bottom suggests the panic stage is over.

People have taken the corona virus panic way too far. After a 30% drop, I would say the corona virus risks (a few points off the global GDP or maybe a small contraction) have been priced in. At some point in the near future, reality is going to sink in that life will go on and the corona virus is not the economic kill switch people feared.

Separate question, SPX and SPY are different right? They're both on "etoro" and at different prices. 

The SPX is the actual S&P 500 index. The SPY is an ETF that tracks it.

[jackg]

It already looks to be recovering yes... And this sint really the optimum season for spending anyway... Its not like its Christmas.

We just need bitcoin to recover now  ...

Edit: Sorry, I didn't realise you merited me before I merited you, just realised now. I was meriting for the spy spx justifications...

Edit, if I put 60k in an investment now-2 years time, what's the likelihood of the markets 10xing like they have done in around 40 years? ()

That'd be some nice retirement...

The bounce has also continued on etoro.

[exstasie]

Edit, if I put 60k in an investment now-2 years time, what's the likelihood of the markets 10xing like they have done in around 40 years? ()

That'd be some nice retirement...

The bounce has also continued on etoro.

Things are pretty murky right now. It's hard to predict 6 months out, let alone 40 years.

My general view: even if this is a 1987-style crash and the bull market resumes next year, we did not reach "blood in the streets" in a generational sense. The years before another 2008-style crash (or worse) are still numbered, and you could probably count them on 1 or 2 hands.

So there will probably be better buying opportunities years down the road. To pull out some random numbers, I could see the SPX hitting 4,500 this decade followed by a crash to sub-2K.

[beerlover]

By the looks of it, the hit is not stopping anytime soon and recovery will not be quite quick neither. Maybe the markets will recover eventually, it always does and even in 2008 the market eventually recovered as well, it took years to get back where it was but it did managed to recover and even go higher than 2008 levels, which means it will eventually go back to what it was one day, however it looks like this sudden fall will probably recover after years.

I just hope that Trump gets reelected just so he will have to face what he has done and has to recover from it, dude removed ALL the money stocks made under him with one bad call, he has spent 2 trillion dollars on tax breaks total to make sure the stocks go up and all of that is gone now, that money could have gone to healthcare, education, infrastructure, stuff that wouldn't erode in a day, but he failed at it.

Now the election is near, if someone else takes over they will have to recover for what Trump has done, it would be unfair, let him take care of his own mistakes.

[exstasie]

The Fed just cut interest rates to zero and launched a $700 billion QE program!
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html

I expect bullish CME weekly opens in 30 minutes and continued relief rallying in world markets.

BTCUSD already jumped up 8% on the announcement and is on the verge of a significant technical breakout to the upside: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg54035600#msg54035600

[jackg]

I'd look to break 5850 and then 6000 before thinking of opening a long for contract trading. Standard buys should've executed by now at 5050-4300 and anywhere between... Only time will tell what we're going to end up doing. Although 2k in either direction isn't unexpected for me anymore


Other ineresting news, on etoro, only 62% of investors lose money. That's a very low number afaik the average is around 72-76%...

[adaseb]

I'd look to break 5850 and then 6000 before thinking of opening a long for contract trading. Standard buys should've executed by now at 5050-4300 and anywhere between... Only time will tell what we're going to end up doing. Although 2k in either direction isn't unexpected for me anymore


Other ineresting news, on etoro, only 62% of investors lose money. That's a very low number afaik the average is around 72-76%...

The average is more like 99% or so. By investors I am talking about traders who take trades with an average hold of a few days or less. Those people who got some IRA and buy stocks for retirement usually make money since stocks generally always go up unless the company goes bankrupt.

Also keep in mind that someone will try trading, lose money and quit after 6 months or so. While someone who is succesful might do it for 10 years. So the percentages can be skewed because the 10+ trader obviously will be profitable and counted in the percentages while those traders who quit trading 6 months ago won't be included which skews the numbers to be more positive than they really are.

 

[malevolent]

The average is more like 99% or so. By investors I am talking about traders who take trades with an average hold of a few days or less. Those people who got some IRA and buy stocks for retirement usually make money since stocks generally always go up unless the company goes bankrupt.

Numbers I've usually seen were around 90% for day traders and similar speculators, and ~95-98% for forex traders. Forex.com has a warning about CFDs, claiming that 69% retail investors lose money when trading them, but they provide seems low.

[STT]

Market will waver right here but I generally think the situation is quite bullish for price.   I say price because I'm not try to be ignorant of negatives for many people, the virus stats and so on but price is the result or ratio of currency vs value.   For SP500 we are talking about operating companies that are continuing to do business,  I'm seeing for example a global telecoms company fall 30% but you cant tell me people stop talking on their phone, if anything they may increase usage from less direct contact.

The charts show we should have hesitancy on this slight bounce from open but I think the market has a bottom also that BTC shows it can put in a bottom price here also.
Thats the long term view, this is shorter term speculation chart just showing the lows previous can provide resistance to action right now.

[jackg]

Vodafone seems to have taken a huge hit too, I'm down 50% with them.

But everything's down. Tesco and morrisons both had a stock fall and you can't say people haven't been using grocery stores these past few days...

Utility companies are also down, but tha tight be reasonable since there may be issues with sewage in a few days/weeks if people couldn't use toilet rolls and couldnt be bothered to step in the shower.

[Wilhelm]

Vodafone seems to have taken a huge hit too, I'm down 50% with them.

But everything's down. Tesco and morrisons both had a stock fall and you can't say people haven't been using grocery stores these past few days...

Utility companies are also down, but tha tight be reasonable since there may be issues with sewage in a few days/weeks if people couldn't use toilet rolls and couldnt be bothered to step in the shower.

Everything is a brick. Just hang on, in a month people will start to see light at the end of the tunnel.
Stocks are only tanking because people need the money to buy TP

[exstasie]

Everything is a brick. Just hang on, in a month people will start to see light at the end of the tunnel.

It might take a couple months and one dead cat bounce before it's behind us for good, but I see lots of similarities to the 1987 stock market crash. A sudden, short lived crash, then back to climbing the wall of worry. I still think there is a decent chance this isn't the event that triggers the next 2008 or prolonged recession.

I do think this will considerably delay any exponential move up in BTC. I'm a convert to Masterluc's long term triangle, or something like it. Bear market consolidation into 2021 seems reasonable.