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Author Topic: S&P took quite a hit today  (Read 555 times)
amishmanish
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March 17, 2020, 04:27:44 AM
 #61

--snip--
 Maybe the markets will recover eventually, it always does and even in 2008 the market eventually recovered as well, it took years to get back where it was but it did managed to recover and even go higher than 2008 levels, which means it will eventually go back to what it was one day, however it looks like this sudden fall will probably recover after years.
We always assume that the markets will always recover. During the last 2 crashes, the world has simultaneously been going through an era of expansion fuelled by consumption and technology.
In the 90s it was such grass-root trends like petroleum, automotive, real estate that fed the subsequent recoveries and booms. People bought and worked and partied as our work culture and consumption patterns changed signficantly.

The next recovery and booms were triggered by the services sectors with companies like Google, Apple, Amazon opening up more avenues of consumption. People watched, subscribed and learnt to work their asses off while always remaining connected and driven by success and productivity mantras.

I feel like these consumption patters are not sustainable. The new generation isn't willing to spend itself milling away while consuming without any thought of consequences. With the kind of time-off that the west is going to get from the lockdowns, i wonder how the consumption patterns would change. Would people still care about the rat race and the newest I-phone once they realize how fickle it all is?
adaseb
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March 17, 2020, 04:50:23 AM
 #62

This reminds me very well of the 2008 market crash. The top was in Oct 2007 and people assumed that support held on Jan 2008 when it looked like it was going to bounce and then on Sept 2008 it had massive selling all the way until Nov 2008 and it looked like the bottom was in and then one more time in March 2009 was actually the bottom.

So we might rally for the next few weeks but eventually will break the low, and then that low will form support and a few weeks and months later it will get broken again, and maybe another leg or 2 down and pretty soon all the knife catcher will be bankrupt and the cycle will repeat. Hence its not always good to just buy whenever there is a huge dump because it can still go lower sometime in the near future.
gentlemand
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March 17, 2020, 02:22:38 PM
 #63

I'm wondering whether they'll give any consideration to suspending stock trading. There comes a point where there's so much chaos and uncertainty it becomes impossible to price anything. Then again maybe suspending the media would do the most good.
jackg (OP)
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March 17, 2020, 04:49:01 PM
 #64

I'm wondering whether they'll give any consideration to suspending stock trading. There comes a point where there's so much chaos and uncertainty it becomes impossible to price anything. Then again maybe suspending the media would do the most good.

Someone on YouTube was saying they'd anticipate something to come out potentially at the weekend or when the markets close one day to suspend trading for a fortnight...

Tbh I doubt something like that would be done since Europe are still able to trade a closed American stock so our market cap could crash a lot faster and leave Americans with less money.

I'm getting a bit confused as to why the governments want to keep banks as liquid as possible as it seems counter productive for maintaining the stock market and there is currently no asset that seems to be safe from this volatility.



Update, I ended up buying $100 in shares of a grocery store, I've had a roller coaster today. When I woke up, I was at $50 and now I'm at $96... I don't really know where all this volatility is coming from - at a guess a lot of people are probably pulling out of index funds...
figmentofmyass
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March 17, 2020, 07:15:50 PM
 #65

I'm wondering whether they'll give any consideration to suspending stock trading. There comes a point where there's so much chaos and uncertainty it becomes impossible to price anything. Then again maybe suspending the media would do the most good.

they should have suspended trading last week. that's what they did directly after the 9/11 attacks, which likely saved the markets from a complete disaster. the panic died down after that.

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