How does price action really works? Traders are predicts?

[BlackFor3st]

After searching this "Speculation" section in the forum or googling words like "technical analyze", you may ask yourself how can we possibly predict the price?
So, I made this thread so answer some questions according to some basic rules we all know.
We are not sure about what's happening today after a few seconds in real life, now how can we make sure about the price in the market? Is this really possible? the short answer is no! we can never ever make sure about the price. Even the most experienced and talented trader can't. So what we do with the technical analyze?
For understanding the technical analyze and price action you will need to think deeply about it.
If you remember the logic lessons in the school you can maybe remember something called "cause and effect".
Imagine we do have two people call them A and B. A hits B hardly and the B will feel pain. Here the "pain" happens by "A". (So basic)
So, this will help us on the market. What makes the price moving up/down? buying and selling happening by trading(supply and demand). And what makes a trader to buy/sell? "Their mind".
So if you want to know the real acting of the price you will need to know about the other trader's mind and how they think.
<Before knowing about the other people's mind first you will need to know yourself and your mind! It's all about the money management and self-control on the market>
We do have some method for it. For example, you may heard about the Fibonacci and the golden numbers school (Yeah sometimes even school is useful). Using the Fibonacci number we can understand about the moments of clouds on the sky and many other things. So, we can also use the Fibonacci in the market.
Also we all do believe in memory! Imagine you walk on the same street everyday for a week and every time you stop for buying an icecream from a particular store. Now after a few months you walk to the street accidentally, You may "stop" and "buy an icecream" or you may "stop", at last you will keep walking and look on the store in the memory of a few months ago.
The market will also remember some prices(spots) and react the the spots.
As you can see everything is logic. I made this topic for some people who call traders "predictors", "Gamblers" or even "Autistic". Yes, the life is a gamble and price action is science of autistic for many people when they don't/won't understand it.

Your opinion is very unique in which we can also use in our future prediction but the rate of success are not that high because you have said already that there is no 100% success rate in predicting the market. The market is very unpredictable and very volatile, it can easily go down and it can rise in just a short period of time if the demand will skyrocket.

Cause and effect can be use only in stock market though it can be use it here but it is not that useful because big whales can easily turn the tide of the market if they like to. So our best aces if we like to follow the market is to monitor it closely like daily if you have time to do it. But if in the future, the demand will just grow that much in which the big whales can't easily dictate the market then using the cause and effect is very effective in predicting the market.

[1714148512]

1714148512

[xvids]

I think most of the new traders doesn't really have an idea how to read the chart they are just predicting the future price.
This is also the reason why they are losing their money on trading they doesn't know what to do and just jumping base on their predictions and base on the others people statement.

[michellee]

We don't have accurate predictions about the market, but we can predict that the price will move to a level of price. Even the pro trader cannot do that because the market will move to know anywhere where the price will stop. The indicator or other tools that are available at the exchange will help us to determine the price to buy and sell, but still, to get the right price, we will not know how to get it. But sometimes, our prediction can happen, and that is happening by coincidence.

[gabbie2010]

I agreed that it is very difficult to accurately predict the exact price movement while some traders rely on some spot which tend to react according to the OP write up meanwhile you forget to mention some candlestick patterns formed in those zones or spot at times they signal exhaustion of bullish or bearish movement of the price eg pin bar or hammer thus an indication that there would be a change in the direction of price.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I think that this thread is worth being mentioned here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4420866.msg39412664#msg39412664

You need to know that TA indicators were invented when average trader was not algo bot/AI bot. To earn on market you need to be better than others. You will not be better than algo bot doing the same as it does (f.e. Fibonacci) but much slower.

AI bots turns TA upside down. The more money stay behind them the less OP post is true (shop stuff etc.) and less effective TA is. It may appear that after next 5 years market will start to do opposite to TA because that will be more profitable to AI bots (why compete with algo bots to earn on non-TA emotional traders if you can switch site and earn on algo-bots that are predictable - price will do what bigger whale want)

I see trading more like a "whale hunting". When i see that, based on TA, price should dump but it doesn't I know that whale use huge TA lovers and algo bots demand to fill bags.

[Hypnosis00]

Nah, we can't just think that traders are really good at TA or even closely predicting the market price in the future. We all be like them, investors and holder will make their own speculation and we got lucky (maybe) if we closely make it but in reality, we got no assurance for this. That is why I don't really give trust to TA or even asking an expert about their speculation but rather to have our own. And if ever it won't work, we have nothing to blame and we don't ever feel disgrace but it either help us to understand the market as well.

[sana54210]

Price action just works because of every trader/investor buy and sell which is as simple as we just walk with two legs. But where we are trying to go by walk is some thing different which could be compared to analyzing/preconditions/speculations.

I mean price action is a collective efforts of individual traders and market will head where most of the traders are trying to reach. So, when a trader is trying to find out the market direction, they go for analysis and they might be right or wrong in both short or long term basis. You may look like right in short term but may turn wrong in long term because markets move up and down without any similar pattern. This is the simple reason why traders are looking like gamblers or predicts.

The price action just works because of we buy and sell and speculations and analysis are just the tool to enable us to pick either one of buy or sell. It may sound like gambling when you skip the analyzing part but market moves for a reason hence calling it gambling is not appropriate.

[bearexin]

I guess since people can't control what others can do, there is of course no one person that can know what will happen with the price. That is for bitcoin and probably ethereum as well but that's about it, all other coins could be controlled by other people but not many, they like to throw "decentralized" word around but in reality we all know it is now, BCH could go up or down a lot if Roger Ver and Jihan wu decides to either sell all their BCH at once, or buy a bunch again, BSV is basically fake coin that Craig can take up or down, so does all rest of them as well.

In order to know what will happen you have to know what people will do, what charts tell you is what people "should" do and that includes you, sometimes people act that way because they think people will do what they should do, which over time is as true as it is wrong, 50% - 50% if you ask me.

[Cootie]

In my opinion, it depends to the number of holders, the transaction they make, the buy and sell action. I think the two directly affect the price trends. The seller sets price for the amount he/she wants to sell. However, at a limit. The algorithm seems to have a limit based on the analysis of some sort. On the other end, buyer decides when to buy. And that transaction maybe the things get analysed by the system and causes price changes.

[STT]

Simplicity is OP.   Thats always what I want to see, a simple pattern that anyone could agree with and then its far more likely to be significant.   Picking out 1 trend over half a dozen competing themes including ones which completely oppose and suggest an inverse direction to the price is the skill I guess.  The low on May 10th recently was a reasonable buy, just happened to be near 200 day average so Im glad I had that on the radar at least.
 Its a weak reason as its just an indicator or average but the fact we rise on fairly uninvolved reasons shows the market is not challenged negatively.    Many simple factors combine and make the picture complicated quite easily, avoiding the noise is key to success I reckon.

[Ridwan Fauzi]

I think most of the new traders doesn't really have an idea how to read the chart they are just predicting the future price.
This is also the reason why they are losing their money on trading they doesn't know what to do and just jumping base on their predictions and base on the others people statement.

As long as their intention for long term investment it's ok to entry. Unless it is for trading and will have different case, there are at least three trading type for some person that should be choose. The first type is scalping, you maybe know the chracter of the scalping trader because it is similar to your case. The second type, da trader you do need one day to come out and see the result (take profit/lose) and the last type is swing trader that you need at least one week to come out from you trading. Trading and investing is different, you can't equate them.

[beerlover]

New traders (which I was once upon a time) have one thing in their mind, it is the fact that bitcoin is valuable and it is scarce so it will always worth more in the future. So they can buy and sell to make a profit, or they could buy and hold until they could sell for a profit.

Obviously, there are weak hands who get in at high and get out at low because they are afraid but those people do not really understand crypto all that very well, they are always afraid of what bitcoin could do and think that people who call bitcoin dead could be right. Hence, I still think that many traders who are not very experienced divide into two, people who will buy and sell and basically be active all the time until they get out, or people who do not really get it and only buy because they want to get rich quickly.