rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[MAbtc]

Had a tag of the sweet spot I mentioned a couple days ago. Short term bullish divergences continuing. Volume is unimpressive, though. I'll entertain the idea of trend reversal if we break above / close above ~ 624 level.

[AnonyMint]

The people who believe it will go to the moon are not the people who can take it there. Bitcoin's userbase must constantly grow, and it does, at an exponential speed.

Do we have any data since the Mt.Gox blowup to confirm or deny whether the adoption rate was affected by the major hit on Bitcoin's reputation?

Feels to me we might be in a lull waiting for some major exchange(s) to comply with some new government monitoring of reserve ratios or something. Something that would signal to the masses that Bitcoin is safe for them.

[rpietila]

The people who believe it will go to the moon are not the people who can take it there. Bitcoin's userbase must constantly grow, and it does, at an exponential speed.

Do we have any data since the Mt.Gox blowup to confirm or deny whether the adoption rate was affected by the major hit on Bitcoin's reputation?

Feels to me we might be in a lull waiting for some major exchange(s) to comply with some new government monitoring of reserve ratios or something. Something that would signal to the masses that Bitcoin is safe for them.

The exponential growth in bitcoin users is just a result of people hearing about bitcoins and having enough time to think about investing in them. The paradigm might change when we hit the "chasm" at about 2.5% of the population. Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.

[podyx]

Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.

more like 0.0001% of total population

[spooderman]

Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.

more like 0.0001% of total population

360 people in the USA?

[MAbtc]

The bounce from 556 looks pretty corrective from here. Was hoping for a retrace to 595, I dunno now...

[aminorex]

Adoption is now about .00002% of global humans.  Upper bound is about 70%.  Adoption is about 0.000008% of global liquidity and reserves.  Upper bound is about 80%.

[MAbtc]

Could still make a run at this .764 retrace. I think we've formed pretty formidable resistance above this level. Expecting downside momentum to pick up sooner or later...

[lunarboy]

Could still make a run at this .764 retrace. I think we've formed pretty formidable resistance above this level. Expecting downside momentum to pick up sooner or later...

Looking to make my quarterly top up within a week. What price target would you think would be good to open a long position? Do you still see this hitting the upper 400's?

[chessnut]

I have opened a long position at 575.... I think that there has been enough selling pressure released for many days on huobi. the selling on huobi was genuine, and no mistake. Now that the PBOC has pulled the statement and clarified their intentions, I think the market will have an upwards bias if the retracement lasts for considerable amount of time. Like MAbc says, uptrend will only be confirmed by 620, and for me 3700 would do, though I think this event is a manoeuvre, and a strategical turning point. when all the nubs that sold realise that they sold for nothing, they will likely buy back in.
It reminds me to some extent of the silk road closure. flash crash down, and steady recovery, swiftly passing into ATH - in which case we will see the reversal in the next 24 hours or less.

[AnonyMint]

The people who believe it will go to the moon are not the people who can take it there. Bitcoin's userbase must constantly grow, and it does, at an exponential speed.

Do we have any data since the Mt.Gox blowup to confirm or deny whether the adoption rate was affected by the major hit on Bitcoin's reputation?

Feels to me we might be in a lull waiting for some major exchange(s) to comply with some new government monitoring of reserve ratios or something. Something that would signal to the masses that Bitcoin is safe for them.

The exponential growth in bitcoin users is just a result of people hearing about bitcoins and having enough time to think about investing in them. The paradigm might change when we hit the "chasm" at about 2.5% of the population. Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.

I think that would be correct, except the 0.1% seems too high (my guesstimate is 0.01-0.03% based on the prior analysis I did of your counting methods and also the Bitcoin market cap is not within an order-of-magnitude of that share of global net worth which is $250+ trillion). Most people coming in are investors and they will be motivated by potential gains. So the longer we are below trendline, the more rocket fuel has been loaded.

How much can the investment grow without a commensurate adoption for real commerce?

The chasm is an interesting concept. Because I was thinking that when we get to 100 million (1.5%) there should be great incentive for global (e.g. internet) merchants to cater to the large global market, so it should catapult from there. There may be a chasm (for those not coming in primarily as investors, i.e. the masses) where the 100 million or so are too spread out globally to drive merchants which tend to be more local in scope.

Thus I think the key is going to be some way of using crypto-currency in trade for something online that is very popular (because it can have global scope and the chasm won't be diluted by physical sparseness). I specifically have a business model in mind for this, w.r.t. to social networking. If I am correct to assume anonymity will be required for this, then Bitcoin isn't it. I am still evaluating this, so I am not sure about that.

Btw, Nadeem called this crash to $500 back in November and is calling for below $100 someday:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43420.html
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article44455.html

bottom line is that bitcoins never matched the hype for transactions are NOT anonymous and it IS heavily manipulated by a handful of mining pools so is not decentralised as today ordinary people cannot muster the processing power required to mine for bitcoins.

He can only be correct if we've already saturated investor adoption. I doubt it.

[MAbtc]

Looking to make my quarterly top up within a week. What price target would you think would be good to open a long position? Do you still see this hitting the upper 400's?

Can't think too far ahead right now. If ~530 is broken, there is very little in the way of tested supports down to 400. I see 400s as likely, assuming we stay below 620s and continue to see such weak buy pressure. I see heavy resistance at 600 - 610. Directional bias is downward.

[lunarboy]

Thanks, ... patience is a virtue 

[rpietila]

Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.

more like 0.0001% of total population

I was assuming 2 million users now and target penetration of 2 billion users => 0.1%.

It is true that most of the 2 million are not really "using" bitcoin now, so we cannot yet directly observe how world-changing Bitcoin is. This "land-grab phase" is designed to take us there.

[podyx]

I was assuming 2 million users now and target penetration of 2 billion users => 0.1%.

It is true that most of the 2 million are not really "using" bitcoin now, so we cannot yet directly observe how world-changing Bitcoin is. This "land-grab phase" is designed to take us there.

2000k/2000kk=0.001%

[akujin]

I think it's now going back down to were it should be... 
It's Btcchina's fault why it went up
After the ~400 crash, everyone was talking about trend reversal and going to the moon... So when btcchina insiders started buying coins to prepare for the LTC launch, lot's of sheeple panic bought and hold, thinking it's heading to the moon... hahaha 

It should be like this:


Not this:




Hahahaha! 

[AnonyMint]

Currently we only have 0.1% of the population so it will grow regardless. The "masses" are not yet involved in 2014.

more like 0.0001% of total population

I was assuming 2 million users now and target penetration of 2 billion users => 0.1%.

It is true that most of the 2 million are not really "using" bitcoin now, so we cannot yet directly observe how world-changing Bitcoin is. This "land-grab phase" is designed to take us there.

My 0.01% - 0.03% guesstimate was 600,000 to 1.8 million based on world population of 6 billion.

Dogecoin (why don't they pronounce it "doggiecoin" or "dog-ecoin" ) claims 100,000 users yet the mcap is only $43 million. Apparently it is the copper-zinc penny coin (feel good marketing, donations, cute dogs) and Litecoin is the current silver to Bitcoin's gold.

Isn't market cap more relevant+concrete than the nebulous concept of "users" (not all types of users are the same).

Feel free to copy or reply to this on your other thread that is relevant to this issue.

We are clearly in investment only stage, because who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend. That will block any major application as a currency until governments bless it as legal tender. But why would governments ever bless it since it removes their authority to control the money supply?

At some point the reality of that has to hit the investment demand. But I guess we have a lot of myopia to go before the "stampede to the exits" realization.

[aminorex]

who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend.

That question makes no sense to me as a U.S. tax payer.  Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

Applying the criteria of logical coherence which you impose upon those you disagree with, I should therefore conclude that you are incapable of competent cognition and should be ignored.

Of course that criterion is a ludicrous one, but I thought it might be helpful to you if I pointed that out.

[AnonyMint]

who can use a daily currency that is taxed for capital gains on every spend.

That question makes no sense to me as a U.S. tax payer.  Given a choice between holding my spending money in a form which loses value costs me much more than does holding it in a form which gains value, regardless of whether the gains are taxed.

1. The hassle of recording and paying tax for numerous daily tidbit transactions is far outweighed by the insignificant value loss of holding $500 in your checking account (exhibit my prior post that average Dogecoin holding is claimed to be $430 per user).

2. You are not thinking like the masses who are not the rich precisely because they don't have a lot of savings to invest. And thus they don't have the same priority set as you. But you as an investor in what you want them to use, need to think like them to understand this investment.

I saw this within my initial study of Bitcoin yet Risto (and you?) apparently haven't registered this in your consciousness yet after years of being invested.

The wildcard is if there could be an application (other than investing) that targeted the rich demographic which is investing in Bitcoin. Well that is...anonymity. They will need it to survive what is coming! And Bitcoin doesn't have it.

Applying the criteria of logical coherence which you impose upon those you disagree with, I should therefore conclude that you are incapable of competent cognition and should be ignored.

Of course that criterion is a ludicrous one, but I thought it might be helpful to you if I pointed that out.

You just proved my point.

The person's of interest will be those who coins which are not showing up in their database as having paid the tax. Via regulation of exchanges, they will know which coins they don't know about.

You going to Wifi won't stop them from drag-netting a person of interest. If too many people are using Wifi to avoid detection, the government will make it illegal to run a Wifi without identification registration. I think this may already be the case in some places in Europe, e.g. London.

1000 or 10,000 high profile prosecutions of those who don't comply, will scare the rest into complying.

I don't know why you naive can't grasp that they don't need to go after every single person, because most people would rather comply than be ass raped in jail.

Also since we were talking about an equitable restitution for massive illegal activity and theft on the mixed funds in the coins, this means the poorer are going to be benefiting from a tax to create an FDIC and then a blacklist on stolen coins (which can be enforced very easily...but I am not going to tell you how). So the middle-class (they are coming poorer) will comply.

This notion that 1 million people can get insanely rich while the middle-class get insanely poor doesn't make any sense. The middle-class will comply when the government promises to ass rape those 1 million nerds.

Bottom line: the government isn't going to give up its power over money, nor is the middle-class going to be able to help you defeat the government.

mo·rass
məˈras,mô-/
noun
noun: morass

    1.
    a complicated or confused situation


clusterfuck

    A chaotic situation where everything seems to go wrong. It is often caused by incompetence, communication failure, or a complex environment; To fuck (something) up, to make a total mess of

[chessnut]

Bears are out to play on Huboi, the rally has had its chance, and failed. if ya cant beat em, join em. The magic number now is 3400. breaking that level could let the cat out of the bag. who knows how far we could go.