The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game

[NavI_027]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Honestly, the first thing come to my mind is of course the first country affected which is China. But since we already heard on news that they are now recovering and near to go back to normal then I just get rid of the idea. Besides, they are one of the most superior country so I don't think this pandemic will be the cause of their fall down.

Anyway, no offense mate but you should now stop running those things on your mind right now. Much better if all of us will become optimistic during the time of crisis and adding prayers too. Instead of spreading bad vibes, let's focus more on the bright side please .

[davis196]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Italy has the biggest government debt in the EU and Italy is the country with most infected people.The Italian economy simply isn't working.There are no tourists and no restaurants working.However,I don't think that Italy might go bankrupt.The European central bank will print billions of euro and buy Italian government bonds,in order to keep the country "above the water".All countries in the world will be damaged in one way or another.

[shoreno]

 obviously those countries that are heavily affected by the virus and those countries are china  and italy   . so far those countries i remember that are suffering too much  but i also heard that china are recovering now and back to business but dont know bout italy maybe italy is also the next country that will recover on the virus   .  btw what is your goal for asking this question  , can we expect a reward with it ? because what i read its a guessing game   . i dont know but i think its not good to predict if what country are to bankrupt but we what more we need right now is a good news and positivity

[hatshepsut93]

My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.

Perhaps it will be some small and poor African country or some other developing country, but those might be saved by IMF or other sources of international aid.

[Wind_FURY]

My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.

But if the pandemic lasts longer than thought, no defaults? Impossible.

Perhaps it will be some small and poor African country or some other developing country, but those might be saved by IMF or other sources of international aid.

Or some country in South America, if COVID-19 infects/kills their people very quickly in numbers like in Italy/Spain.

[Magkirap]

My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.

Perhaps it will be some small and poor African country or some other developing country, but those might be saved by IMF or other sources of international aid.

Indeed, no country will ever go bankrupt because of this virus spreading all through out the globe, why? Because we are not alone in this fight, i have already seen countries helping one another by donating equipments needed to fight the virus and by that no country will go zero. Yes, the effect will differs on each country as well as the damaged to their economics but it will be no neara country being bankrupt.

[fiulpro]

Okay , I do think it will be Italy .
They are abandoning their population .
Treatment is not being given to people after the age of 80.
It's even worse then China .
Italians are dancing around the world spreading the Virus .

Other than that I think it could be Ukraine too . .
Right now with only 26 cases but banks are already selling off stocks to maintain to currency .
Government is hiding a lot .
Citizens are not even contacting the doctors .
It will suddenly cause a big pop trust me .

[eaLiTy]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

The only solution to stop the spread of the virus is to shut down gatherings which includes shopping malls and other commercial places and during this phase manufacturing will be affected and that means the entire financial structure will be affected and we are not seeing any slowdown yet and the virus is spreading to many countries and in the next few months i am expecting a financial meltdown globally. Right now many countries are providing financial packages to aide the economy during this phase. 

[bits4books]

The EU will suffer the most, simply due to their alleged "integrity, friendship and support". Each country will only act in its own interests to stabilize the situation as soon as possible
THE GAME HAS BEGUN

[Blackdeath]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Developung countries are the one's who definitely most afffect in global pandemic of corona virus that a lot of business will go bankrupt, productions of foods will be stopped and a lot of people will starve to death, that is why a lot of countries are helping each other to avoid these problems.

[Febo]

Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China. Death toll already surpassed 2,500, and the demographics itself, country has the second-oldest population on earth. And obviously, the younger generation respect their elders in a Catholic country like Italy that's why the spread is unprecedented. And I think we can consider Italy now as ground zero, so it have slowed down their economy in the last month or so.

Italy is just first that was hit hard after China. That dont mean that at the end of pandemic they will be hit most. Usually in pandemic is even better to be hit early since you can get some help from other countries. Right now there are many countries on same path as was China and Italy and will be way less help for those in need.

[Matic]

I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before

[nosferzd]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

To the government of those countries where the most infected with the COVID-19 virus (China, Italy, Spain). Small and medium-sized businesses in these countries suffered greatly due to the virus and panic caused by it, which led to an increase in prices for literally everything that is possible. The true exception to all this is the pharmacy business. Owners are very pleased with the current state of affairs, selling masks and medicines at inflated prices.

[boyptc]

I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before

Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.

They have the highest death rate now and even higher than China. I've heard the news about Russia and US testing for antidote and hoping for the success of that test.

[snipie]

I'm gonna guess its the countries that are already on the verge of economic collapse, those which have unsustainable debt and whose economies are relatively fragile:

Country with debt/GDP ratio:

- Portugal 119.46%
- Italy 133.43%
- Greece 174.15%
- Spain 95.96%

Spain has actually been improving as of late, but these 4 countries have collectively been known as the PIGS for at least 10 years for having too much debt.

Regarding the situation for the moment and expecting a stabilisation of the situation after 4-6 weeks at least before the economy starts working again at +75% of what used to be, then if Italy and Spain managed to stabilise its economies then it will be a miracle. The collapse is happening right now, bankruptcy will not be so far if a lockdown will be maintained until summer!
Germany has a powerful economy, France has a good one too and can survive, Northern European countries are highly affected but can manage it too if they slower down the progression of the disease. Eastern European countries aren't that much affected for the moment which is lucky for them because if they have the same situation as Italy or Spain then not only its economy will collapse but the European Union will!

[sheenshane]

I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before

Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.

I always sad when I saw the word "dead" on this pandemic. I always hope it will totally rid of and get up at dawn.
As a recent news country of Italy announced 627 death overnight. I hope it will not spread more.

The Philippines (our country) is most likely the best country to nominate being bankrupt due to coronavirus. The Philippines is a small island with fewer medical facilities. The government declared an intense quarantine forcing all the people to stay at home. Since the businesses are small, they cannot afford to pay their workers without work.

Businesses were forced to stop their operations. Revenues are going down. They have a lack of funds. I'm afraid the country will be bankrupt because of the pandemic coronavirus.

[boyptc]

I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before

Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.

I always sad when I saw the word "dead" on this pandemic. I always hope it will totally rid of and get up at dawn.
As a recent news country of Italy announced 627 death overnight. I hope it will not spread more.

The Philippines (our country) is most likely the best country to nominate being bankrupt due to coronavirus. The Philippines is a small island with fewer medical facilities. The government declared an intense quarantine forcing all the people to stay at home. Since the businesses are small, they cannot afford to pay their workers without work.

Businesses were forced to stop their operations. Revenues are going down. They have a lack of funds. I'm afraid the country will be bankrupt because of the pandemic coronavirus.

We are all wishing to get rid of this pandemic as soon as possible.

I can't do anything at home but just to watch and wait until there's already the cure for the disease. I've heard the news lately that some countries are already doing it and hopefully, a positive feedback will be reported soon.

[hatshepsut93]

My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.

But if the pandemic lasts longer than thought, no defaults? Impossible.

Well, the goal of a quarantine is actually to make the epidemic to last longer to spread the diseases cases over longer period of time, so that the hospitals always have enough capacity to threat people and as the result less people die. I think the current predictions say that this pandemic will last for a half a year or a year, but this doesn't mean that quarantine measures will last this long too. And economists say that this year will still have global economic growth, though it will be much smaller, something like 1.25%

[Yatsan]

I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before

Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.

I always sad when I saw the word "dead" on this pandemic. I always hope it will totally rid of and get up at dawn.
As a recent news country of Italy announced 627 death overnight. I hope it will not spread more.

The Philippines (our country) is most likely the best country to nominate being bankrupt due to coronavirus. The Philippines is a small island with fewer medical facilities. The government declared an intense quarantine forcing all the people to stay at home. Since the businesses are small, they cannot afford to pay their workers without work.

Businesses were forced to stop their operations. Revenues are going down. They have a lack of funds. I'm afraid the country will be bankrupt because of the pandemic coronavirus.

Our local stock market are crashing and already lose a trillion of money, and as you said businesses are being stop and lot of workers stop also. Basically, the income in our country is stopped and lot of families are getting hungry considering that they have no money and the government are also losing money. Our country might bankrupt, it already borrow a 100M$ at world bank, but what's important in this crisis is human lives. I hope that this pandemic will gonna end soon, it's damaging a lot of country and we might suffer from economic crisis after this.

[Wind_FURY]

My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.

But if the pandemic lasts longer than thought, no defaults? Impossible.

Well, the goal of a quarantine is actually to make the epidemic to last longer to spread the diseases cases over longer period of time, so that the hospitals always have enough capacity to threat people and as the result less people die.

Isn't the goal of quarantines is to stop infections from spreading? I'm confused.

I think the current predictions say that this pandemic will last for a half a year or a year, but this doesn't mean that quarantine measures will last this long too.

I believe 6 months of no/truly low economic productivity/output is enough to default countries with weak economies. Plus the damage of the pandemic.

And economists say that this year will still have global economic growth, though it will be much smaller, something like 1.25%

The question was, guessing what country's government would default first. Italy? Iraq?