The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game

[Savemore]

Italy is by far the most affected for sure, I have seen pictures of "ghost town" type of situations where there was no one around and that kind of means economy stops. Economy is not something that can afford to stop or give a break, it has to continue forever to keep churning profits or as soon as it stops we are talking about a global crisis.

It means Italy is about to have something so huge that other nations will start to get affected because of it, France is next and then Spain will be following them, after that it is impossible to think Germany will be unaffected and of course UK ... as you can see it is going from one place to another and economy will be basically destroyed in general in all of Europe because of this. Hopefully it will be recovered but it will take a lot of time before we are back on regular days economically.

Italy is now became the new epicenter of the coronavirus where the infected persons in their country have now reached 63,000 and counting and they have the highest death toll in the world because of the virus where it now reached 6,000. There are now many effects to their economy because of the pandemic where their government have hard time to control. Even though they now implemented quarantine, the virus is still spreading that can still affect their economy.

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[Sadlife]

This is only my speculation, if this virus outbreak goes on and on and throughout history a vaccine comes after 1 to 2 years of researching and testing then, it would be probably the US government as we know. They're doing massive money printing, forgivable loans, 0 interest rates. Plus the civilians doesn't follow their government guidelines to stay at home and do social distancing. I think their the first to fall and everything will follow like a domino effect.

[CHENIEN]

This pandemic is like a thorn in the throat that we cannot call it a game just because it is painful, it is not a game of life and it's probably created by a selfish people with there's nothing to do except to destroy and eat nasty animals that leads a propagation of coronavirus, the most pitiful of these is the herald's countries which relies solely on weekly income.
Finally, the country of china reported that covid-19 disease has been continuing to decline, but it's hard to know that the tribulation of the Italian nation is much more infected compared to china

[snipie]

This is only my speculation, if this virus outbreak goes on and on and throughout history a vaccine comes after 1 to 2 years of researching and testing then, it would be probably the US government as we know. They're doing massive money printing, forgivable loans, 0 interest rates. Plus the civilians doesn't follow their government guidelines to stay at home and do social distancing. I think their the first to fall and everything will follow like a domino effect.

I believe people in most countries aren't following any guidelines. I am not talking about cults only, you can see French in parks, Americans in closed beaches...crowded bus/train...lines in front of every store... Even some Italians aren't following any rules!
It is all about having good health structures or not now.

[imstillthebest]

This is only my speculation, if this virus outbreak goes on and on and throughout history a vaccine comes after 1 to 2 years of researching and testing then, it would be probably the US government as we know. They're doing massive money printing, forgivable loans, 0 interest rates. Plus the civilians doesn't follow their government guidelines to stay at home and do social distancing. I think their the first to fall and everything will follow like a domino effect.

I believe people in most countries aren't following any guidelines. I am not talking about cults only, you can see French in parks, Americans in closed beaches...crowded bus/train...lines in front of every store... Even some Italians aren't following any rules!
It is all about having good health structures or not now.

yeah right other people are just cant understand simple instructions  . they only care about themselves but if we cant beat them then we must not join them ,  we that can understand simple instruction must stay home  .  that could be the reason that those people are now getting sick but its too late now for them to regret  .  @sadlife  , i heard there are now cure for the virus and i also dont think that the virus can last for over a year  because we are now seeing major progression  on most places  . people only need to cooperate for more faster recvoeries  . i just hope they will this time

[Subbir]

I have never heard of any medicine or vaccine developed to cure the virus nobody can tell the precise details of how long it'll last because the days pass the prevalence continues to extend But to some extent everyone has got to follow instructions to regulate it. Everything has come to fruition and social mismanagement has led to the deterioration of business and therefore the economy.

[TheAndy500]

I will assume that there will be no defaults, but Italy will suffer the most, the situation is too bad there, people have not reacted properly to the threat for too long, and now they are paying for it. They pay a very high price that could have been avoided had the government been a little tougher.

From my observations of statistics, it seems that there has been a solstice in Italy and there has been no increase in the number of infected people or deaths for two days. The Italians got very scared and immediately took very quick action. Of course they did it late, but they did it well.
The situation is very different in Great Britain, where the government simply said that he did not care at all about the threat of coronavirus. Actions are beginning to be taken, but society does not care at all. In my opinion, the level of ignorance will reflect the level of consequences for the whole of Great Britain.
Brexit also can be very disastrous for Great Britain, because if the whole island will be infected and cut off from deliveries, no one will be able to help them. If, at all, it is possible to control the virus in the rest of Europe, then other countries will have their own problems and will have to rebuild a damaged economy. That is why I think that when it comes to Europe, Great Britain will certainly suffer the most.

[ArIMy11]

As far as I know, Italy has a very worst situation in facing the Covid-19. I think they have the highest record of death rate in just a single day ( https://time.com/5807804/italy-coronavirus-deaths-rise/ ). It is so heart-breaking. Due to this I think their economy goes a very deep down. I am just hoping we in our country will not suffer the same thing. I also think it will be very hard for them to stand up again since up to now, number of patients recovered are small.

[TheAndy500]

As far as I know, Italy has a very worst situation in facing the Covid-19. I think they have the highest record of death rate in just a single day ( https://time.com/5807804/italy-coronavirus-deaths-rise/ ). It is so heart-breaking. Due to this I think their economy goes a very deep down. I am just hoping we in our country will not suffer the same thing. I also think it will be very hard for them to stand up again since up to now, number of patients recovered are small.

As I wrote in the previous post, statistics from the last days say that the situation in Italy has been under control. It is true that until now (except China) it was the country with the highest records of infection and deaths. However, other countries are catching up with these results very quickly. Just look at Spain, which is getting worse every day. Other European countries such as Switzerland, France and the Netherlands are also in a very difficult situation. Due to the huge number of citizens, the US may also be in a terrible situation. Unfortunately, but in many countries it is just beginning .. I think that the biggest problem may be in Great Britain due to taking action too late.
The most important thing at this point is to invent a cure, but no one seems to be even close to it.

[Granxis]

The American stock market has lost a lot of value, and small enterprises have been injured, the rate of virus spread is very high in Latin countries such as Spain and Italy. The whole world is affected by this virus, but some countries will be more affected.

[coinfinger]

No shock that everyone would say Italy, there was absolutely nothing going on there anyway, they were never a powerhouse in the economy department, they were always in debt and they were basically a nation with full on vacation all the time. Think of all the things Italy sells to world, there are not all that many, at least nowhere near the huge nations, so they were left behind anyway.

Now with all of this, they will be doing even worse, there will be no recovery from this all that quickly, however this is literally why IMF exists and this is why EU exists. What will happen is Italy will be in big debt, big trouble, economy will be horrible. However they will get some loans from IMF, they will get some money from Europe as well, everyone will share and they will use that money to revitalize the economy.

[hahay]

I find it hard to guess that and to be honest, do not want to make a bad thing for a country and because with this pandemic at least every country has its sympathy to make many donations and that is a form of proof, if every country wants an economy that remains good when conditions are alarming because of this coronavirus. At the same time we know that China was the country with the most cases until finally Italy became the highest case, but even we can see that with the great effort that continues to be done in China there is at least a decrease in cases and hopefully it can be done in other countries as well.

[michellee]

I guess you can read about the Corona Pandemic from here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/world-map.html

But I don't think that will make the country is going to bankrupt because I am sure that every government will try to cure the people before it infected more people while they still trying to manage their economy.

[Wind_FURY]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

I believe its going to be INDIA.

(Good God, apologies but practicality says it)

The thing is India is fighting against coronavirus with full power but in the meantime its loosing huge businesses and its economy bursting inside out.
India does't have enough funds in the Reserve Bank of India.

Banks are not allowed to take loan EMI's and other repayments from the customers for next three months or until next notice from the government. Thus, it will lead to loss of bank business as they will have huge set backs.

On the other hand, NSE and BSE are not recovering that effectively at which rate it shall be. Large number of employees have their money in these markets and which they will not getting back soon or will be selling in loss.

Most of the engineering companies have been shut and there is no salaries to employees.

India is also led by huge number of farmers and for them its getting difficult to sell their goods in far locations due to lockdown of transports etc.

Looking at such locked up situation im betting on India followed by Italy.

I believe not. I was told that India imposed/implemented the strictest lockdown, more than any other country in the world, China included.

We'll find out which country soon, wait two months.

[sonofliberty]

Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China. Death toll already surpassed 2,500, and the demographics itself, country has the second-oldest population on earth. And obviously, the younger generation respect their elders in a Catholic country like Italy that's why the spread is unprecedented. And I think we can consider Italy now as ground zero, so it have slowed down their economy in the last month or so.

 

same thoughts I think  economy was slightly alive just cause of tourism and now it stops

[Harlot]

If we are thinking about the ones who will have the hardest fall then we can only have one candidate and that is the USA. Their stock market are the first ones to fall as early as the first week of February and the situation of the infection back then wasn't that worst compared to what we have now. They are directly hit because the U.S. companies they have also have big factories in China which have shut down because of the infection. Aside from that we can see that the pandemic is just worsening by the day in U.S. and everyday a lot of people are getting infected. I think the U.S. economy will be crippled because of this pandemic and it will depend on how quick they will recover now.

[Betwrong]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

As always the case, the poorest countries are at the most disadvantageous position.~

Imo, the poorest people are at the most disadvantageous position, and we can find such people in every country.

Regarding the economic impact of the pandemic on various countries' economies, every country will be (and already is) affected big-time. And if one country will suffer much more than others, the international community will help that country to cope with its problems.

The world, with the exception of a few countries, maybe, is no longer a place where some countries are gloating over the calamities in other countries. So, with the current level of reciprocity, on the governmental level, all economics will be affected equally, more or less.

[carlisle1]

I believe it might be from one of the countries in the European Union which already has problems BEFORE the pandemic because if slow economic-growth.

Seems like your prediction is coming to reality now mate because Italy overtakes china now for the counts of dying per day and infected going high each day.

Though also US is suffering from the effect of the virus yet Italy now is asking for help worldwide.

Now we have a clue in which country will be the answer for this thread.

Guys, no one thought about what older people suffer most from coronavirus?  It seems that this virus was specially released to reduce the number of elderly people and seriously ill people who put a heavy burden on the economy of each country.  It seems that this could be a global conspiracy to destroy a certain layer of the world's population.

Actually it is not about the ages but the health of each victims,because nowadays even younger people dying from this pandemic,Here in our country a 35 years old Doctor died from Convid-19 and she has Diabetes.

[carter34]

It seems that this could be a global conspiracy to destroy a certain layer of the world's population.

This is far from this thought or conspiracy. Whose country's old was left behind ....
This is just an epidemic that is ravaging the globe at the moment. So many known diseases today started like this until cure was found. We expect that soon we are going to be free again in our society.

[plast555]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

I believe its going to be INDIA.

(Good God, apologies but practicality says it)

The thing is India is fighting against coronavirus with full power but in the meantime its loosing huge businesses and its economy bursting inside out.
India does't have enough funds in the Reserve Bank of India.

Banks are not allowed to take loan EMI's and other repayments from the customers for next three months or until next notice from the government. Thus, it will lead to loss of bank business as they will have huge set backs.

On the other hand, NSE and BSE are not recovering that effectively at which rate it shall be. Large number of employees have their money in these markets and which they will not getting back soon or will be selling in loss.

Most of the engineering companies have been shut and there is no salaries to employees.

India is also led by huge number of farmers and for them its getting difficult to sell their goods in far locations due to lockdown of transports etc.

Looking at such locked up situation im betting on India followed by Italy.

India is acting really early when compared to Italy, don't compare it to Italy and what you said about banks is true and it doesn't affect a lot for the well-operating banks as they have enough margin and the government will always be there to save the bank at any cost and all these lockdowns will not affect the farmers as it affects other industries since there is no restriction on the essential goods.

All these items agricultural products will fall under essential goods moreover the recent crude price fall will also help the ease of deficit and additional income to the government with increased tax to maintain the fuel prices at the same level which is expected around 36k crore they can spend in this time lets hope for the best.