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Author Topic: The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game  (Read 1162 times)
TheAndy500
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April 13, 2020, 08:10:34 PM
 #121

Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China.
That's what I was thinking, too, although I don't think they're going to go bankrupt.

I'm kind of worried about the future of the US, especially since the government cranked up the money printing and is sending pretty much every citizen or family a check for something like $1200.  I'm not sure how we intend to pay for all that, and my guess is that it's not going to be a gift from Trump but a loan that we're going to be paying off with higher taxes and such after everything settles.  The US isn't going to go bankrupt in the immediate future, but that's where we're headed.

And yeah, I think the poorest countries are going to get slaughtered economically.  But who knows.  We'll see where we are in a year or so.

The US is safe, of course, except for a large number of victims of the virus. But this is a country with a huge number of citizens, so in percentage terms, this should not be different from other countries.
Even if the US prints huge amounts of dollars, the country will not suffer, precisely because the US has dollars.
After Trump's last announcement of printing 2 billion, the price instead of going down went up, so even if it announces the printing of another 2 billion, nothing bad will probably happen.
I think that the United Kingdom will have much more problems, because the exit from the European Union associated with the virus epidemic can become a very big economic problem for them.

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April 13, 2020, 08:19:19 PM
 #122

Bitcoin is pointing to 5k by May.
However, a reversal is possible, due to a stable line coming from the start of 2017.

If people realize that holding fiat is losing money, they will invest. The more governments prints it, the more it will lose value on long-term.
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April 13, 2020, 09:33:05 PM
 #123

And yeah, I think the poorest countries are going to get slaughtered economically.  But who knows.  We'll see where we are in a year or so.
We might see a global blood bath we have not seen in a long time and much bigger than the 2008 crisis and the situation in third world countries will be really pathetic, right now we have no idea when the pandemic is going down and how long the government can force everyone to sit at home and do nothing.

The US is safe, of course, except for a large number of victims of the virus. But this is a country with a huge number of citizens, so in percentage terms, this should not be different from other countries.
Even if the US prints huge amounts of dollars, the country will not suffer, precisely because the US has dollars.
After Trump's last announcement of printing 2 billion, the price instead of going down went up, so even if it announces the printing of another 2 billion, nothing bad will probably happen.
You are dreaming, do you have any idea about debt they are having if they keep on printing money how they are going to control the inflation. Printing money will not save any country and it will give the opposite result.
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April 13, 2020, 09:41:25 PM
 #124

In a crisis, things always eventually devolve into self-interested behavior.

Then in this crisis, it showed, that the European has lost it's purpose, or not needed anymore, and it needs to break-up as soon as possible in my opinion. What's left? Nothing, unless you have the advantage like Germany.

Has it actually lost its purpose? https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/eu-in-brief_en

This isn't my area of expertise, but I thought the EU was primarily about monetary and economic policy. I wasn't aware it implied rich countries were supposed to unconditionally bail out poor countries in any crisis.

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April 14, 2020, 12:22:03 AM
 #125

For me it is the US who will suffer more in this pandemic, news are reporting about how the US handle this virus and they said that they are really having a hard time to fight this virus. Although US is a first world country, and a large country with a good state of economy, their stock market is really affected by this virus. According to the news, the New York city is having a hard time to assist its patients so that they will recover from this virus. They said that they are lacking of equipment and manpower as doctors are also getting the virus while taking care of patients. The stock market is down and the people are still panic buying just to survive the quarantine. Until now, we have no idea when this virus will end and it is hard to accept that there are lives that have been loss.

Corona actually has nothing to do with developed countries, developing countries or poor countries. What's different is how the government's response in dealing with corona. We can take the example of China, the Netherlands, Taiwan, the United States.

China is a total lockdown of Wuhan city because it has already fallen in corona. The Netherlands with failed herd immunity. The United States, which was initially confident of being able to conquer Corona, finally bites a finger. And finally, the successful Taiwan provided an umbrella before it rained to overcome the corona.

In Taiwan when the corona outbreak was still in Wuhan, those safe times were used to prepare for the arrival of the virus. Since SARS attacked, Taiwan already has a formal institution that monitors and handles outbreaks. So when the plague in Wuhan became uncontrollable. Taiwan has produced more masks and provided counseling, so there is no increase in the price of masks in Taiwan around USD 1.7 for 9 pieces of surgical masked. Purchase with quota & show health identity card, without a card you can not order. The maximum order is only for 14 days, order through the government website and can be taken at retail stores. Taiwan has also prepared thousands of isolation rooms in all hospitals equipped with negative pressure rooms.

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April 14, 2020, 09:23:08 PM
 #126

In Taiwan when the corona outbreak was still in Wuhan, those safe times were used to prepare for the arrival of the virus. Since SARS attacked, Taiwan already has a formal institution that monitors and handles outbreaks. So when the plague in Wuhan became uncontrollable.
This is the same preparation Kerala a state in India took when the outbreak in China is reported because the state had a prior experience with the Nipah virus outbreak and they were able to control it in record time during 2018 and this time when the outbreak was spreading the government took precaution by forming necessary teams to counter the situation well before a positive case was confirmed and so is the reason it is the only state that could flatten the curve, the rest of the countries who were late in identifying the situation are suffereing.
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April 14, 2020, 10:40:08 PM
 #127

Relatively recently, I expressed the opinion that there will not be such countries, but yesterday I read an article that almost all enterprises in Iran resumed work, despite the incompleteness due to the pandemic. They assume that the country simply has practically no reserves left and they are forced to return to work in order to avoid default.

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April 15, 2020, 09:06:22 AM
 #128

In a crisis, things always eventually devolve into self-interested behavior.

Then in this crisis, it showed, that the European has lost it's purpose, or not needed anymore, and it needs to break-up as soon as possible in my opinion. What's left? Nothing, unless you have the advantage like Germany.

Has it actually lost its purpose? https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/eu-in-brief_en

This isn't my area of expertise, but I thought the EU was primarily about monetary and economic policy. I wasn't aware it implied rich countries were supposed to unconditionally bail out poor countries in any crisis.


You're right! That actually makes their "EU-bond", which is currently dominated by Germany, less-binding. PLUS, the EU has to bail out countries that can't pay their debts now, or they leave.

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April 15, 2020, 11:00:15 AM
 #129

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

The third world country will be the one that will be hit hard, I am part of a third world country and the government cannot keep up, with dole and to sustain people who are out of work because of COVID, right now our government is thinking of selling their properties and the world bank already lend us, if this continue the third world country will have a recession and will go bankrupt.

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April 15, 2020, 11:09:01 AM
 #130


The third world country will be the one that will be hit hard, I am part of a third world country and the government cannot keep up, with dole and to sustain people who are out of work because of COVID, right now our government is thinking of selling their properties and the world bank already lend us, if this continue the third world country will have a recession and will go bankrupt.

That sounds terrible.

Many countries like my own were barely holding, and now that this crisis just started it becomes really hard for the world economy to keep existing as existed before.

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April 15, 2020, 11:15:53 AM
 #131

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

The third world country will be the one that will be hit hard, I am part of a third world country and the government cannot keep up, with dole and to sustain people who are out of work because of COVID, right now our government is thinking of selling their properties and the world bank already lend us, if this continue the third world country will have a recession and will go bankrupt.
I can feel you mate,and you are perfectly correct that the government hits harder about this Pandemic and at some point even the Health workers are aiming to surrender because of underlying situation now.
Relatively recently, I expressed the opinion that there will not be such countries, but yesterday I read an article that almost all enterprises in Iran resumed work, despite the incompleteness due to the pandemic. They assume that the country simply has practically no reserves left and they are forced to return to work in order to avoid default.
and this will only ruining the curing mate,imagine while most of the world are under lockdown to prevent the spread and here Iran comes back to normal as if there are no more dying now?

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April 15, 2020, 11:39:18 AM
 #132

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
Bankruptcy is kinda deep to talk about as most of the countries even if they are very poor will likely to create a counter measure in order to avoid this kind of happening as it is the worst. A country that is bankrupt is almost dead but the poorest country will likely to be hit hard if in case they will be affected that much by the virus and they can't contain it.

So it's a matter on how they are going to deal with the virus, other are imposing lockdown to lessen the affected person therefore all will depend on how the government will take a counter measure to this pandemic until the vaccine will be available. Even the wealthiest country are not exempted to this especially if they mismanaged this situation like what happened to USA where the infected persons are keep on growing. So in the end, I will not try to guess if who is the first country to become bankrupt as I don't like the idea and if possible I don't want any countries to suffer a bankruptcy.

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April 16, 2020, 01:20:10 AM
 #133

This seems relevant: Coronavirus could cause more countries to default on their debt, economist says

He's bearish on Greece and Italy, that's easy enough. But he's also betting the pandemic will lead to crises for South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina:

Quote
An increasing number of countries could default on their debt in the coming 12-18 months as governments globally increase spending to limit the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic, an economist said on Wednesday.

“I do think we will see some issues there, possibly we could see a euro zone crisis come back with countries like Greece or Italy ... likely to be at the center of that,” Simon Baptist, global chief economist at consultancy The Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”

“Across the emerging world, I’ll pick out countries like South Africa and Brazil as being likely to suffer a further crisis as a result of this,” he added. “And, of course, Argentina has effectively gone back into sovereign default already.”

The IMF is predicting the worst recession since the 30s. Accurate or not, you have to think there are going to be some big defaults, if only from countries who are already teetering on the edge.

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April 16, 2020, 02:22:34 AM
 #134

Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China.
That's what I was thinking, too, although I don't think they're going to go bankrupt.

I'm kind of worried about the future of the US, especially since the government cranked up the money printing and is sending pretty much every citizen or family a check for something like $1200.  I'm not sure how we intend to pay for all that, and my guess is that it's not going to be a gift from Trump but a loan that we're going to be paying off with higher taxes and such after everything settles.  The US isn't going to go bankrupt in the immediate future, but that's where we're headed.

And yeah, I think the poorest countries are going to get slaughtered economically.  But who knows.  We'll see where we are in a year or so.

Yeah, that is how a businessman thinks.
There will never be a freebie for that guy. I wish he did.
But he already won the presidency so I think he is not in a position to give anymore. He got what he want.

I really thought at start it would be Italy who will be the top candidate but then USA took over the 1st place.
Last week I read like 300k but now they are at 641,919. Recovered is not even touching the 10 percent yet.
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April 16, 2020, 05:43:58 PM
 #135

What governments understand that, when you are in charge (in politics) you are given an insane power, you can literally get away with murder if you are careful enough, you can steal, bribe and destroy your way into being even more powerful, you can basically be as close to untouchable as it gets, nobody else could have that type of power. S,o what does politicians use that for? Of course to their own benefit, yet they do realize that when the powers shift and when they lose that power, they might be found guilty for what they have done during the period they had the power.

So, they would rather never give up their power at all, at least that is how they are trying to protect themselves. If the financial system collapses and everyone is hungry and people have zero money, they will blame the government for not doing enough so they will vote for someone else. Which is why governments will probably try to avoid a big crisis as much as they can.
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April 16, 2020, 07:32:33 PM
 #136

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

The third world country will be the one that will be hit hard, I am part of a third world country and the government cannot keep up, with dole and to sustain people who are out of work because of COVID, right now our government is thinking of selling their properties and the world bank already lend us, if this continue the third world country will have a recession and will go bankrupt.
That is the biggest trouble, these third world nations that are economically not good anyway, will have hard time even harder after this ends, probably during this period as well. Think about it, you are at home, you just got fired, your nations economy is horrible, everything is insanely expensive while you are not making enough to even survive, yet you got fired so you are even more trouble, so with all of that in mind everyone tells you to stay at home and you can't go out and look for a new job, you can barely go outside, when you do all you can think of how you can find a food to eat and how to keep your shelter.

The amount of danger waiting for the poor people of the poor nations are very very big, we are talking about DEATH level of threat right now, sure we are not at that level and we are only scared of our economy and finances but these people are fighting for their LIFE right now.
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April 18, 2020, 11:17:03 AM
 #137

Relatively recently, I expressed the opinion that there will not be such countries, but yesterday I read an article that almost all enterprises in Iran resumed work, despite the incompleteness due to the pandemic. They assume that the country simply has practically no reserves left and they are forced to return to work in order to avoid default.
Many countries actually consider such decision even in the US trump urge to reopen after going so much struggle, by simple logic we can assume that all the countries more specifically the developing and fragile ones will really have a hard time. This time is time of uncertainty it's like there's no good decision only bad and the worst.



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April 18, 2020, 11:33:07 AM
 #138

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
In my opinion, all affected countries will have an equal possibility to enjoy a slowdown even to financial failure. How a lot do they need to pay and no longer to say the numerous victims who died due to this pandemic.

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April 18, 2020, 12:03:18 PM
 #139

Hopefully, an effective treatment will be found before the virus reaches those poor regions.

I am hoping the same, the poor countries will be heavily affected because they are not ready for this virus.
If the cases in the US which already rich to 500,000 will happen in poor country, I don't know what will happen but God have mercy, hopefully we will not see that happening.

The US has 700k+ cases currently, but we shouldn't count out the population of the country, around 330 million, and the fact that the US has done more coronavirus tests than anybody else, 3.5 million+. I mean, some other countries can have the same amount of cases per capita, they just don't know about it. But that is not to say that the economic impact of the virus can be more devastating in the end in those countries. IMO no country will go bankrupt because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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April 18, 2020, 05:15:08 PM
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 #140

After China maybe united state become most terrible country with many people got corona virus, how ever after corona cases many country stop for new comer and never give allowing for every one enter in their country. Become bad moment when corona never could stop and keep going terrible until this finish.
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