The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game

[hahay]

After China maybe united state become most terrible country with many people got corona virus, how ever after corona cases many country stop for new comer and never give allowing for every one enter in their country. Become bad moment when corona never could stop and keep going terrible until this finish.

There are at least the top three countries that are very worrying because besides the United States there are two countries underneath which are Spain and Italy. But anyway, when this pandemic continues to be severe in the sense that it cannot be resolved quickly and on the contrary more and more people are infected, then of course every country has the same concern. Hopefully this pandemic ends soon

[kemoglo]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Poor countries, definitely. Better said, countries with huge organizational issues.

The latter introduces the US to the list, I think the US is going to see worse numbers than the likes of Italy and not just referring to the greater size of its population, but percentually it'll be greater.

[abhiseshakana]

The US has 700k+ cases currently, but we shouldn't count out the population of the country, around 330 million, and the fact that the US has done more coronavirus tests than anybody else, 3.5 million+. I mean, some other countries can have the same amount of cases per capita, they just don't know about it. But that is not to say that the economic impact of the virus can be more devastating in the end in those countries. IMO no country will go bankrupt because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Do you mean the definition of bankruptcy such as Argentina, Greece, and Zimbabwe? Maybe developing and poor countries can face the situation after the pandemic effect ends.

In one blow, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the impoverishment of a large sector of the world's population. And guess who is the savior in overcoming this crisis, the IMF and the World Bank. The IMF will lend money to a country and with the money that the IMF lends to a country, that country will repay the IMF. The neoliberal solution implemented at the global level does not, in fact, restore the economy but rather impoverish it. The drama of the start of the new debt process was played and in the end, contributed to the increase of the debt by many countries in the world.

Lockdown as the only recommended method for WHO to counter COVID 19 brings a restructuring of the global economy and the consequences are conditioning the concentration of massive wealth, destabilizing small and medium enterprises in all key areas of economic activity including service economy, agriculture, and manufacturing, undermining rights workers, disrupting the labor market, depressing wages in high-income developed countries as well as in poor developing countries. In turn, all this has led to mass unemployment, bankruptcy of small and medium-sized companies, destruction of people's purchasing power, widespread poverty and hunger in many countries.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/03/tr040320-transcript-kristalina-georgieva-participation-world-health-organization-press-briefing

[brotherwood12]

the poor country with low health care and high population , the pandemic will grow fast there and kill every aspect  rapidly

[Betwrong]

The US has 700k+ cases currently, but we shouldn't count out the population of the country, around 330 million, and the fact that the US has done more coronavirus tests than anybody else, 3.5 million+. I mean, some other countries can have the same amount of cases per capita, they just don't know about it. But that is not to say that the economic impact of the virus can be more devastating in the end in those countries. IMO no country will go bankrupt because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Do you mean the definition of bankruptcy such as Argentina, Greece, and Zimbabwe? Maybe developing and poor countries can face the situation after the pandemic effect ends.
~

No, I mean the Great Depression kind of crisis, which many doomsayers predict these days. Of course I understand that some negative impact on the economy will be experienced by every country, but I think no country, rich or poor, will be affected greatly, meaning, will be affected to the degree so that one could see it just by looking on the streets. That's what many people are afraid of currently, and that's what is not going to happen, in my opinion.

[Wind_FURY]

This seems relevant: Coronavirus could cause more countries to default on their debt, economist says

He's bearish on Greece and Italy, that's easy enough. But he's also betting the pandemic will lead to crises for South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina:

An increasing number of countries could default on their debt in the coming 12-18 months as governments globally increase spending to limit the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic, an economist said on Wednesday.

“I do think we will see some issues there, possibly we could see a euro zone crisis come back with countries like Greece or Italy ... likely to be at the center of that,” Simon Baptist, global chief economist at consultancy The Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection.”

“Across the emerging world, I’ll pick out countries like South Africa and Brazil as being likely to suffer a further crisis as a result of this,” he added. “And, of course, Argentina has effectively gone back into sovereign default already.”

The IMF is predicting the worst recession since the 30s. Accurate or not, you have to think there are going to be some big defaults, if only from countries who are already teetering on the edge.

That's very relevant actually. It's the whole point of the topic, BUT, it's also a guessing game. Hahaha.

Plus the Crude Oil market has crashed, Russia and other oil-producing countries, not under rich Arab-rule, could default too.

[Sadlife]

At first i'd expected it to be China as they recorded a rate of infected and manage to have number of people contracting the disease more 80,000 but i was wrong it seems the most likely to go down first is The USA. As they have no prevention in the virus and underestimated it, just like in Spain and Italy. Upon researching on how much time needed for a vaccine to be created i found its 2 years max.

So probably those 3 countries namely US, Spain and Italy wouldn't survive.

[royalfestus]

People will be disappointed with pandemic effect on some poorer countries. Most of them dont have the means of taking data and information from those countries may not be reliable. Countries densely populated with no proper city plan can affect the spread, also health infrastructure put in place and proactive measure by the government; testing process, treatment and disposal of the dead. Vaccines are likely to be available before it hit the poorer countries   

[Finestream]

Can't tell which country but definitely the poor countries will suffer more. That's why it's necessary that the measures poor countries will implement will be very strict as they can't afford to facilitate a huge number of people in their hospital as they lack facilities and doctors.

[kogozer714]

I think all countries will definitely go bankrupt with covid-19 chaos. but in terms of economic progress, those who are able to stand up earlier than those who will win, those who will suffer the greatest losses are developing countries, with the average population still earning the least and day laborers.
 Hopefully this problem covid-19

[camito]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

Poor and marginalized countries will surely be devastated. Most especially those which has a large number of its population but is at a low level in terms of its strength in the medical field. You cannot base bankrupcy by just their size because we see Malaysia sorting out the problem well. Those countries which have a disorganized government, dishonest officials, and hard headed people, are the ones which contribute to the coming of a worse case scenario for that country.

[fullhdpixel]

I do agree that these poor nations are probably either hiding their numbers or more simply they are just not doing tests as much as other nations which is why we do not see too many numbers in the underdeveloped nations.

However there is also another possibility that these poor nations are poor for a reason and maybe the touristic poor places like south east Asia or something could be still having a big pandemic spread going on that they are not aware, but looking at Latin American countries and African countries I can't stop myself from thinking maybe not a lot of Chinese people went there during pandemic and after that maybe not a lot of Europeans neither? These are places that not many people fly to so maybe no corona people ever went there and they never had any sick people because of it?

[abhiseshakana]

No, I mean the Great Depression kind of crisis, which many doomsayers predict these days. Of course I understand that some negative impact on the economy will be experienced by every country, but I think no country, rich or poor, will be affected greatly, meaning, will be affected to the degree so that one could see it just by looking on the streets. That's what many people are afraid of currently, and that's what is not going to happen, in my opinion.

Depending on how the country's leaders respond to every challenge and threat that comes. Supposing F1 racing in control is the driver to be able to overtake the corner. Recession after the pandemic effect ends is certain because in the name of another budged humanity diverted for the allocation of pandemic mitigation.

Recession will not continue to depression because of the decline and slowdown in the real economy due to individual movements as economic agents are limited. Isolation and quarantine caused many small scale industrial companies to be forced to stop, as a result, there was no income, a reduction in labor that affected consumption figures. So the government must provide direct cash assistance for living benefits for many people affected by corona.

It all depends on the country's leaders in resolving this pandemic. Considering corona as an ordinary virus or seeing a pandemic corona as a national threat. This rationale will bring a different frame of mind in overcoming corona.

Coronavirus is a national threat due to the fact that there are three types of coronaviruses that affect the world, mild type A circulating in the United States and Australia and the UK, Type B circulating in Wuhan and Type C circulating in Europe and Singapore.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8204255/There-THREE-separate-types-coronavirus.html

In the period of stopping the pandemic, the government can simultaneously formulate or carry out a virtual simulation, the steps taken after the pandemic is based on the timeframe of outbreak handling. The smart leader can overtake the corner by utilizing the moment of supply shortages after the pandemic ends because only 50% of manufacturing and industry are working.

Concern after the pandemic ends is how to turn back the wheel of the economy so that a lot of labor is absorbed and restore the passion of consumption. Employment creation projects that absorb large numbers of workers must be guarded by the government, given permits and capital facilities with strict supervision. For the capital required, the government can make money as long as it is verified from the upstream and downstream industries and the money is actually played in the real sector.

[Reatim]

Can't tell which country but definitely the poor countries will suffer more.

Seems that this is wrong mate because the most infected and problematic now are USA and European countries and sure they will suffer more after this pandemic.

That's why it's necessary that the measures poor countries will implement will be very strict

All countries must be stricter because if they don't then the virus will never stop spreading.

as they can't afford to facilitate a huge number of people in their hospital as they lack facilities and doctors.

Hospitals are being extended now because there are hotels and other buildings that has been used to facilitate victims now.

[Betwrong]

~
Concern after the pandemic ends is how to turn back the wheel of the economy so that a lot of labor is absorbed and restore the passion of consumption. Employment creation projects that absorb large numbers of workers must be guarded by the government, given permits and capital facilities with strict supervision. For the capital required, the government can make money as long as it is verified from the upstream and downstream industries and the money is actually played in the real sector.

Idk, mate, I think it's the easiest part. People are so tired of sitting at home now that I'm sure they will start working effectively as never before when quarantine is lifted. And imo there's no need in restoring the passion of consumption, because, in fact, it hasn't gone anywhere. We'll see huge waves of movie and concert goers, shoppers etc. when the whole thing is over. I actually predict a huge economic growth, something akin to the post–World War II economic expansion.

[Shasha80]

I predict that a poor country will be worst affected by the corona virus. Possible countries from Africa or Asia are likely can go bankrupt.
Even though the United States and Europe are on the top rank of the corona virus spread, but because of the country America and Europe
have a strong economy. Then it will be fast to be able to recover from the effects of the corona virus.

[exstasie]

Concern after the pandemic ends is how to turn back the wheel of the economy so that a lot of labor is absorbed and restore the passion of consumption. Employment creation projects that absorb large numbers of workers must be guarded by the government, given permits and capital facilities with strict supervision. For the capital required, the government can make money as long as it is verified from the upstream and downstream industries and the money is actually played in the real sector.

Idk, mate, I think it's the easiest part. People are so tired of sitting at home now that I'm sure they will start working effectively as never before when quarantine is lifted.

The problem is more complex than that. A robust economy requires more than just a willing labor force. It needs employers.

A friend remarked to me a few weeks ago, something like "anyone who thinks a business can just close for two months and then reopen like nothing happened has never run a business before." And I think it's true. Half of US small businesses don't have enough cash to survive one month without incoming revenue: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-companies-can-survive-without-bringing-in-money-2020-3

Then there is this to consider:

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports that "roughly 40% to 60% of small businesses never reopen their doors following a disaster."

It's probably safe to say we'll see a lot of permanent business closures as a result of these shutdowns. It will take years to recover those jobs.

[$crypto$]

I think all countries will definitely go bankrupt with covid-19 chaos. but in terms of economic progress, those who are able to stand up earlier than those who will win, those who will suffer the greatest losses are developing countries, with the average population still earning the least and day laborers.
 Hopefully this problem covid-19

If the pandemic just disappeared a few months ago then I think the country can still survive and will not go bankrupt in the economy, at a glance we must know that some European countries are experiencing a very great co-19 where the death rate has risen dramatically per day it means the country can survive with the economy which is still ongoing but many say that covid-19 is just the beginning of a conspiracy of the trade war.

[Naida_BR]

Poorest countries will not be affected by COVID-19 due to the fact that they do not have a lot of interaction with big economies and nations such as China. US of Europe.
They will not have a lot of infections and as a result their economy is going to continue working normally.

[palle11]

Poorest countries will not be affected by COVID-19 due to the fact that they do not have a lot of interaction with big economies and nations such as China. US of Europe.
They will not have a lot of infections and as a result their economy is going to continue working normally.

They are equally having the same contact with the developed countries simply because the world is a global village and that permits all kinds of relationship from physical trade to digital. The contagious rate therefore is same. But I can agree that the poor countries might not have so much casualties because of early prevention and help from countries that have already gone through it.