The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game

[Snappycoco]

As this virus gone wild and infect humans, it has always been a very serious threat to those who don't have enough facilities and equipments. But I dont know how USA got hit very bad.

[Betwrong]

Concern after the pandemic ends is how to turn back the wheel of the economy so that a lot of labor is absorbed and restore the passion of consumption. Employment creation projects that absorb large numbers of workers must be guarded by the government, given permits and capital facilities with strict supervision. For the capital required, the government can make money as long as it is verified from the upstream and downstream industries and the money is actually played in the real sector.

Idk, mate, I think it's the easiest part. People are so tired of sitting at home now that I'm sure they will start working effectively as never before when quarantine is lifted.

The problem is more complex than that. A robust economy requires more than just a willing labor force. It needs employers.

A friend remarked to me a few weeks ago, something like "anyone who thinks a business can just close for two months and then reopen like nothing happened has never run a business before." And I think it's true. Half of US small businesses don't have enough cash to survive one month without incoming revenue: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-long-companies-can-survive-without-bringing-in-money-2020-3

Then there is this to consider:

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports that "roughly 40% to 60% of small businesses never reopen their doors following a disaster."

It's probably safe to say we'll see a lot of permanent business closures as a result of these shutdowns. It will take years to recover those jobs.

It would certainly be so if there were no government support of small businesses. Yes, small companies can't survive without bringing in money, and they can't earn money while being closed, but if the government gives them the money they lack, they survive. The money given by government to them will not be enough for them to prosper, but it will be enough to survive. And I think this is what going to happen in the developed countries. But I'm not sure about underdeveloped ones.

[Irvinn]

The fact is that on the network people are viewing a lot of scenarios for the further development of events, especially those that indicate the causes of the coronavirus pandemic.  Of course, this is only an assumption, but for some reason it is very alarming that the spread of the virus may be an opportunity to establish a new world order, or even worse, a reduction in the world's population, because there are too many people and nature, as well as resource balances  in the near future for all of humanity.  It is this issue that the World Secret Government can deal with and the current state of the world economy is nothing compared to the future of mankind.

[Bagaji]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

As always the case, the poorest countries are at the most disadvantageous position. Thickly populated countries whose population is highly dependent on daily wages or a no-work no-pay basis are going to feel the economic pain earlier and in a more severe degree. I don't want to name countries but we know which of them have such a situation. In those countries, health benefits are next to nothing. Moreover, if a lockdown is implemented, the daily wage earners, which doubtless comprise the huge majority of the population, may not be exposed to the danger of getting infected but will go hungry until god knows when.

I am coming from the Philippines and my country is certainly one in the category that I've mentioned. The primary concern of my country right now is that lockdown and community quarantines are hard to implement. The rich and the privileged don't have any problem with it; it is very easy for them to abide with the order. How about the poor? They don't scratch, there is nothing to peck. While I don't believe this pandemic will make my country bankrupt, it will definitely hurt the economy. And when the economy of a developing country is severely hit, the ordinary man will suffer the most.

Note that even the so called Developed country are suffering the effect of this virus like US who is now calling for help from around the world and is only after the pandemic we will know the economy that is strong enough to recover quickly as one cannot tell now what will happen in future after this Pandemic.
I have issue with the lockdown measure to cub spread of the virus for am of the opinion that the lockdown measure should be base affected community by community and not just to short down the whole economy of the country as some countries are busy copy other countries lockdown measure which doesn't work.

[Averim]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

At this point the power that gives value to fiat money is trust, to much printing may affect this trust and the results could be disastrous.

[silversurfer1958]

This is a difficult question to answer which country is most affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. Because no one can know exactly what a country's budget really is and how much it can afford to borrow from the World Bank. But I think there will be a group of countries at risk of bankruptcy in the economy. These are the countries that have been severely affected by this epidemic with extremely high numbers of cases and embargoed by the US and Europe. That is Iran.

[exstasie]

With oil prices in the dumps, some of the weaker oil export-heavy countries on this list may be interesting to watch regarding sovereign defaults:

It's probably safe to say we'll see a lot of permanent business closures as a result of these shutdowns. It will take years to recover those jobs.

It would certainly be so if there were no government support of small businesses. Yes, small companies can't survive without bringing in money, and they can't earn money while being closed, but if the government gives them the money they lack, they survive.

Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.

[culuuton]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

In my opinion, countries in the top poor and not having drastic measures to prevent pandemic in the first place are likely to go bankrupt and default first. They don't have enough human and financial resources to fight for a long time, before major countries (countries can help them) quell the epidemic and the world economy temporarily recover.

[Finestream]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

In my opinion, countries in the top poor and not having drastic measures to prevent pandemic in the first place are likely to go bankrupt and default first. They don't have enough human and financial resources to fight for a long time, before major countries (countries can help them) quell the epidemic and the world economy temporarily recover.

Good thing they are not hit hard now compared to the big countries, like the top 3 countries which has the highest cases, they are rich countries so they can handle the situation, once they find the vaccine, the poor countries will also benefit, so the poor countries measures now should be very strict to avoid a significant increase which they might be able to handle in the long run.

[nomenclatur]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

not possible countries could go bankrupt likely all countries experiencing economic problems a country that has a high poverty rate would be the rate of deaths and starvation were the highest because they do not have a store to eat and do not have the money for their needs every day to survive pandemic period due to the lockdown requires food stored in a country if the government does not provide assistance to the poor then they may die of hunger.

[Matic]

now I think It would be third world country like Uganda their economy was already bad

[Spaffin]

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

not possible countries could go bankrupt likely all countries experiencing economic problems a country that has a high poverty rate would be the rate of deaths and starvation were the highest because they do not have a store to eat and do not have the money for their needs every day to survive pandemic period due to the lockdown requires food stored in a country if the government does not provide assistance to the poor then they may die of hunger.

if the situation with covid 19 will only get worse, then it seems to me that in some countries the problems will be much more complicated than the fight against coronavirus.  in fact, some experts predict an increased number of crimes, because people have no other way to earn a living.  Anyway,  you always need to pay the bills and buy food, and not everyone can now afford it, but not a single state has taken care to make life easier for its citizens.

[shoreno]

Can't tell which country but definitely the poor countries will suffer more. That's why it's necessary that the measures poor countries will implement will be very strict as they can't afford to facilitate a huge number of people in their hospital as they lack facilities and doctors.

You are right, the virus is spreading very quickly, so poor countries will be affected by this Virus because already those countries cannot control the flow of the virus with limited facilities. They should manage to focus on their economic growth otherwise the need to face a lot of problems.

not only poor countries but even rich and richest ones are infact more prone to it  . but how can they foccus on thier economic growth when they are poor already and they can even become poorer on these times   . what you mean to say is that they need to foccus on implementing a good strategy to combat the virus .  @finestream   . i can feel it now here on our place   ,  hospitals here are now rejecting people  . this is bad because those people are dying . people complain without knowing the situation

[MCobian]

If we look at the condition of the world economy is really apprehensive, many countries have finally decided to print money to save
economy. But this way is only for the short term, but can have a bad effect if for the long term. Inflation rate can increase, and many
are affected by this corona virus, the country of America which became the first most populous country corona virus. But countries
from Africa that are likely to be the first to go bankrupt, we know in Africa many poor countries. Which can be bankrupt if exposed to
this corona virus, because the economy is weak.

[FanatMonet]

If we look at the condition of the world economy is really apprehensive, many countries have finally decided to print money to save
economy. But this way is only for the short term, but can have a bad effect if for the long term. Inflation rate can increase, and many
are affected by this corona virus, the country of America which became the first most populous country corona virus. But countries
from Africa that are likely to be the first to go bankrupt, we know in Africa many poor countries. Which can be bankrupt if exposed to
this corona virus, because the economy is weak.

Some countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia can really suffer very much, due to their rather poor development, and the lack of an adequate level of health care that could help them with boron coronavirus. They can only hope for outside help.

[figmentofmyass]

things look shaky for italy. their bonds were just downgraded again, just one level above junk bonds now. they are going deep into debt with bailout loans for businesses, similar to the USA.

given how modest EU stimulus has been so far, are we expecting an italian bailout, if push comes to shove?

this princeton economist doesn't think so:

To put this in perspective, European leaders are squabbling over pennies in deciding on the European Union’s next budget. Hence, at a time when the strongest European nations are weak, it would be a mistake to expect that they will rescue a financially failing Italy in a timely manner. And if the Italian financial fault line cracks, the debt defaults from Italy will cascade through the global financial system, causing damage that will be hard to contain.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italy-will-need-a-precautionary-bailout-a-financial-firewall-as-coronavirus-pushes-it-to-the-brink-2020-03-10

so italy is definitely on the watchlist.

[Betwrong]

~

It's probably safe to say we'll see a lot of permanent business closures as a result of these shutdowns. It will take years to recover those jobs.

It would certainly be so if there were no government support of small businesses. Yes, small companies can't survive without bringing in money, and they can't earn money while being closed, but if the government gives them the money they lack, they survive.

Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.

Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo). 

[exstasie]

Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.

Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo). 

An eternal optimist, you.

Successful companies usually take loans for growth. Taking loans to shut down (while funding overheads and payroll) is a little different.

Sure, some businesses will do just fine. I'm just saying shutting down for 2-3 months and taking on a shitload of debt is a shock that many businesses can't handle, particularly small businesses. Plus, the bigger problem than the shutdowns is that demand may not return even once they are lifted:

As States Begin to Reopen, Many Stay Home—Keeping Economic Rebound Elusive

Who Will Reopen the Economy—the President, the Governors, or the People?

[Betwrong]

Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.

Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo). 

An eternal optimist, you.

Successful companies usually take loans for growth. Taking loans to shut down (while funding overheads and payroll) is a little different.

Sure, some businesses will do just fine. I'm just saying shutting down for 2-3 months and taking on a shitload of debt is a shock that many businesses can't handle, particularly small businesses. Plus, the bigger problem than the shutdowns is that demand may not return even once they are lifted:

As States Begin to Reopen, Many Stay Home—Keeping Economic Rebound Elusive

Who Will Reopen the Economy—the President, the Governors, or the People?

Yes I'm optimistic, but my optimism isn't coming out of nowhere. Over a million COVID-19 patients have recovered successfully, and among 2 million+ currently active cases only 2% are in serious or critical condition. This virus turned out to be not as deadly as first feared. Some people, like that yoga teacher in your video, are still afraid of the worst case scenario, but more and more specialists agree that the probability of it is very low.

[Wind_FURY]

Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.

Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo). 

An eternal optimist, you.

Successful companies usually take loans for growth. Taking loans to shut down (while funding overheads and payroll) is a little different.

Sure, some businesses will do just fine. I'm just saying shutting down for 2-3 months and taking on a shitload of debt is a shock that many businesses can't handle, particularly small businesses. Plus, the bigger problem than the shutdowns is that demand may not return even once they are lifted:

As States Begin to Reopen, Many Stay Home—Keeping Economic Rebound Elusive

Who Will Reopen the Economy—the President, the Governors, or the People?

Yes I'm optimistic, but my optimism isn't coming out of nowhere. Over a million COVID-19 patients have recovered successfully, and among 2 million+ currently active cases only 2% are in serious or critical condition. This virus turned out to be not as deadly as first feared. Some people, like that yoga teacher in your video, are still afraid of the worst case scenario, but more and more specialists agree that the probability of it is very low.

BUT the negative impact on the economy won't end for another two years. We might see unemployment rates surge around the globe like never before. Some analysts claim the unemployment rate in the U.S. might surge as high as the Great Depression.