Virus Bear Market?

[figmentofmyass]

Is the western governments planning to hype this virus pandemic for 3 months or 6 months or even into 2021 or when do you think the vaccine will be announced or will vaccine announcement will be too late now for the dying economy?

trump is hoping to get back to normal by easter. good luck to him!

re a vaccine:

“Like most vaccinologists, I don’t think this vaccine will be ready before 18 months,” says Annelies Wilder-Smith, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. That’s already extremely fast, and it assumes there will be no hitches.

In the meantime, there is another potential problem. As soon as a vaccine is approved, it’s going to be needed in vast quantities – and many of the organisations in the Covid-19 vaccine race simply don’t have the necessary production capacity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-vaccine-when-will-it-be-ready

translation: we better hope for highly effective antiviral treatments in the meantime because it's gonna take 1.5-2 years.

Finally the chinese government reported 0 new cases for covid-19 and their economy has gotten out of the bear market and their country returning back to normal now, are the chinese still buying bitcoin now?

about that:

to be fair, china probably has way more cases than the USA. it's pretty well accepted that china's propaganda apparatus can't be trusted. preliminary evidence suggests china is actively suppressing reporting of new cases. wechat, weibo, and other platforms are also actively censoring public discussion of the pandemic and medical supply shortages.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/3a8evk/china-says-it-has-no-new-coronavirus-cases-skeptics-say-thats-too-good-to-be-true
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/08/803766743/critics-say-china-has-suppressed-and-censored-information-in-coronavirus-outbrea

[1715502064]

1715502064

[exstasie]

Interesting happenings in the gold market lately. COMEX is unable to fulfill physical gold obligations and there is a considerable premium developing in the physical spot market over futures. I suspect this is a temporary condition, but gold bugs are foaming at the mouth, thinking this is the apocalyptic event that renders paper gold worthless and physical gold invaluable.
https://twitter.com/roysebag/status/1242577788957339651

Is silver affected too by the deliveries?

People have been paying 50-70% premiums for physical silver: https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/there-s-another-interesting-situation-playing-out-in-the-silver-markets-15275139

I have not seen any "force majeure" threats in silver futures like we are seeing in COMEX gold futures but I wouldn't rule it out in the future. The production shutdowns are affecting physical gold and silver supplies the same exact way. If this continues for months on end, the markets could diverge and price discovery could break down.

Like I said, I think this is temporary and things will return to normal, but it's good to keep these possibilities in mind.

[FanEagle]

I really wonder if this complete shut downs in nations could actually work out for the better for some reason. I know that it makes no sense, economy has to keep moving forward at all times in order to improve, however people are left with money in their hands and nothing to spend on but crucial stuff in their homes without spending much, which means sure the companies will get worse and worse but the people wouldn't be spending excess useless amounts so they might actually end up saving money?

Most people started to work from home, so the business world is not going to stop completely, they will keep on paying staff, so that staff who stays at home, only buys food and needed stuff, will maybe save some money while companies go down? That way we could basically close the gap?

[very_452001]

Is the western governments planning to hype this virus pandemic for 3 months or 6 months or even into 2021 or when do you think the vaccine will be announced or will vaccine announcement will be too late now for the dying economy?

trump is hoping to get back to normal by easter. good luck to him!

re a vaccine:

“Like most vaccinologists, I don’t think this vaccine will be ready before 18 months,” says Annelies Wilder-Smith, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. That’s already extremely fast, and it assumes there will be no hitches.

In the meantime, there is another potential problem. As soon as a vaccine is approved, it’s going to be needed in vast quantities – and many of the organisations in the Covid-19 vaccine race simply don’t have the necessary production capacity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/coronavirus-vaccine-when-will-it-be-ready

translation: we better hope for highly effective antiviral treatments in the meantime because it's gonna take 1.5-2 years.

Finally the chinese government reported 0 new cases for covid-19 and their economy has gotten out of the bear market and their country returning back to normal now, are the chinese still buying bitcoin now?

about that:

to be fair, china probably has way more cases than the USA. it's pretty well accepted that china's propaganda apparatus can't be trusted. preliminary evidence suggests china is actively suppressing reporting of new cases. wechat, weibo, and other platforms are also actively censoring public discussion of the pandemic and medical supply shortages.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/3a8evk/china-says-it-has-no-new-coronavirus-cases-skeptics-say-thats-too-good-to-be-true
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/08/803766743/critics-say-china-has-suppressed-and-censored-information-in-coronavirus-outbrea

So this virus bear market will last 18 months at the earliest?

Countries around the world are shutting down everything and locking down everyone resulting in economies shutting down except basic markets that are needed for survival such as food and medicine markets as well minimalist key services like for example hospitals to keep the country running in minimalist mode, similar to windows safe mode I guess.

When exiting safe mode in windows and rebooting everything is back to normal however this minimalist mode imposed on countries will not bring countries worldwide back to normal when this is over because there will be permanent damage such as huge unemployment figures, all businesses shutting down as they cant recover from this except mega rich corporations that can easily recover from this. So this is depression and might take years or a decade?

What I dont understand is governments saying they going to cover wages by borrowing $trillions in cash from the treasuries and central banks. When the government send these monthly wage cheques to the masses then what will the masses buy with that cheque handout? Just food and medicine and bills? Will the masses buy bitcoin with those cheque handouts?

Also when theres unemployment then theres no income tax going to governments so how governments will still run minimalist services with no taxpayers money? More borrowing and wont that result in hyper inflation? Also what happens if governments cant pay back the loans to private treasuries and central banks?

Lastly what if there is a Covid-20 new strain of the virus coming back next year season? That means vaccines means are useless as they are outdated right?

Finally the chineses markets look like they are recovering, Okay lets say chinese are not revealing true figures and let the country go back to running normal then people are mixing with each other that should result huge spikes in new cases in the millions I guess but chinese economy and markets look normal? How does this work?

[wozzek23]

I don’t believe that this virus is going to stay till next year if we do the right thing that we are supposed to do. It will only stay for long if we don’t do the right things that we are meant to do, like quarantining those that are infected and staying indoors to protect ourselves ; we are doing these things already and I believe that soon this covid-19 will be over. I strongly believe that bitcoin is not going to fall again.

But in a situation where this continues, it might affect bitcoin and every other cryptocurrency – reason being that a lot of people will be selling their assets and converting to fiat to be able to handle their responsibilities and other things that they are meant to be.

[very_452001]

If it does get ugly then are we looking to break the 4K floor or will the 4K floor hold like the last crash couple of weeks ago? If the worse then whats the absolute bottom btc will crash to? 3K or even below that?

Can a virus bear market be more worse than a normal bull run pump and bear dump markets?

The pump to 20k then crash to 3K bear market then slowly recover after couple of years to 13k then stability at 8k then crash to 4K virus bear market.

What patterns can we learn from this? Will a vaccine announcement get us out of this virus bear market? Or is it too late for a vaccine announcement and hence the permanent economic damage has already been done that can take years to recover meaning this virus bear market can last years even though lets say theres a vaccine out and no more people will get the virus.

BTC will always Sync to to the Stock Market? That means BTC can only un-sync from stock market if the masses buy BTC to hedge their fiat wealth?

Economists are saying Stock Markets are due for the crash this year anyway even with or without the Virus as stocks are inflated then entering another economic recession/depression similar to the 2008 crash.

Anyone disagree?

[quarkfx]

btc halving will increase demand of btc , but people now as no jobs due to lockdown so there is no money with people or less money , all stock markets are crashed all this to recover it takes almost a year ,after  corona virus is contained

[very_452001]

Economists are saying Stock Markets are due for the crash this year anyway even with or without the Virus as stocks are inflated then entering another economic recession/depression similar to the 2008 crash.

So the question is:

This virus bear market crash does the same job and replaces the inevitable upcoming inflated stock market crash meaning there wont be 2 separate crashes?

BTC was designed by a Japanese mathematician Satoshi as a tool to protect us from crashes like this so the question is why a tool like BTC is Syncing to the stock market and how do we Stop syncing with the stock market and become a independent asset like a asset it meant to be like Satoshi has originally intended it to be in the beginning? Btc is decentralised so whats up with BTC syncing to other markets worldwide like a chain where fiat paper money is at the top of the chain?

Even Altcoins Sync to BTC which is understandable because most trading pairs in BTC but BTC syncing to the stock market is crazy.

When do you guys think the bleeding will stop in the stock markets?

[fabiorem]

Yes. It was the virus all along. Sell everything you have.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Government saying this virus hype can last till next year, meaning Btc crash will be sustained to new lows this year similar to a virus bear market till next year when the virus fear hype is over?

Whatever government is saying that might be correct, but that doesn't necessarily mean bitcoin is going to keep dropping.  There was an obvious correlation between the outbreak and the slump (in the stock market as well), but I don't think it's going to be prolonged.  In fact bitcoin seems to have stabilized around $6200 for the moment, and the way I see it the "crash" could have been much worse than it actually was.

People are selling all sorts of assets to free up cash, and that's all being done out of fear, but smart investors see times like these as good buying opportunities.  And obviously some folks have indeed been buying bitcoin--if they weren't, I'm pretty sure the price would have dropped much lower.

[figmentofmyass]

Whatever government is saying that might be correct, but that doesn't necessarily mean bitcoin is going to keep dropping.  There was an obvious correlation between the outbreak and the slump (in the stock market as well), but I don't think it's going to be prolonged.  In fact bitcoin seems to have stabilized around $6200 for the moment, and the way I see it the "crash" could have been much worse than it actually was.

People are selling all sorts of assets to free up cash, and that's all being done out of fear, but smart investors see times like these as good buying opportunities.  And obviously some folks have indeed been buying bitcoin--if they weren't, I'm pretty sure the price would have dropped much lower.

bitcoin is still down much more than stocks. the dow jones is down 29% vs 40% in bitcoin.

i'm sure this is a buying opportunity but this is the age old problem of dip buying---where is the bottom? the stock markets lost 50-60% in the 2008 crash. it's possible we won't reach the "blood in the streets" stage for another 6+ months, which means current prices may not be a bargain at all.

[Lizzylove1]

People are dying in thousands and economy of nations are shutting down, people been laid off their job. It's only those who are not hungry that will inject good money into the cryptocurreny market. I don't yet know where the fund is coming from to push up the market since the world are in turmoil, I hope this virus should have die down by mid-April.

[exstasie]

If it does get ugly then are we looking to break the 4K floor or will the 4K floor hold like the last crash couple of weeks ago? If the worse then whats the absolute bottom btc will crash to? 3K or even below that?

It depends how strong the panic is. Nobody can predict that. Nobody could have predicted the market would stop at $3,850 either. That's more a matter of market psychology and liquidity than TA or fundamentals.

My personal opinion is we've already reached peak panic in BTC and won't see prices below the $4K-$5K range again. I think we will keep trading within this contracting range:

BTC will always Sync to to the Stock Market? That means BTC can only un-sync from stock market if the masses buy BTC to hedge their fiat wealth?

BTC (and everything else pretty much) correlates to stocks during global liquidity crises. Once we exit the crisis phase (and definitely once we enter the recovery phase like Q2 2009 on) I expect them to diverge.

[CHENIEN]

many active traders are failed to access their position to bear market due to covid-19 which are impacted too many countries, to protecting the economy the minimum wage volume of supply for the delivery of some particular goods which is coming from the other countries are eventually minimized, for the protection of people away from the virus because buying and selling products to all particular sector of the bear markets are decrease and many traders are suffering major losses in their portfolios.

[ethereumhunter]

The crashing of bitcoin is because people panic on the current situations, and makes them sell bitcoin to have money to buy their needs. I don't think that will give more impact to the market except for the virus still attacking people, and many of them are dead. If that happens, then people will sell more to have money to survive, and that will impact the bitcoin price too. But every possibility can happen.

We can hope that with the halving of bitcoin, it will help us to get out of this bear position and the bull will come again to us. For the truth, I don't know what a correlation between covid-19 with bitcoin is, but I only see the market is down too deep but gladly, right now, the market still trying to break the high price.

I think many people out there don't understand about bitcoin, so they prefer to have gold as the safest investment right now. But if people can read more and study about bitcoin, they will see that bitcoin can be a new type of investment besides gold.

[verita1]

I agree! We must overcome Covid19 to recover the market and it will not be an easy task because the pandemic will leave a bleak environment. We must work hard to recover everything we have accomplished in the crypto market. Sadly, we are seeing humanity threatened by a very dangerous pandemic.

[arowana33]

I agree! We must overcome Covid19 to recover the market and it will not be an easy task because the pandemic will leave a bleak environment. We must work hard to recover everything we have accomplished in the crypto market. Sadly, we are seeing humanity threatened by a very dangerous pandemic.

You are right on this. I hope the humanity will be strong and fortunate enough so we'll have to care about such things as cryptocurrencies, not our survival.
Because if we won't overcome a virus fast enough - we'll meet a very very rought times my friend

[Negotiation]

It's a threat to humanity okay but we can certainly get rid of the beer market. If we increase the market demand by investing then it is possible to recover The market is not controlled by anyone. The market is likely to rise on demand. Due to the virus many people have gone to market and demand has decreased.

[Xampeuu]

It's a threat to humanity okay but we can certainly get rid of the beer market. If we increase the market demand by investing then it is possible to recover The market is not controlled by anyone. The market is likely to rise on demand. Due to the virus many people have gone to market and demand has decreased.

I don't think it is easy to increase demand, with uncertain conditions, I think many investors have chosen to wait and see to monitor market behavior, and see the development of the corona virus outbreak. almost every sector of the economy was disrupted by this outbreak

[michellee]

It's a threat to humanity okay but we can certainly get rid of the beer market. If we increase the market demand by investing then it is possible to recover The market is not controlled by anyone. The market is likely to rise on demand. Due to the virus many people have gone to market and demand has decreased.

I don't think it is easy to increase demand, with uncertain conditions, I think many investors have chosen to wait and see to monitor market behavior, and see the development of the corona virus outbreak. almost every sector of the economy was disrupted by this outbreak

Right. I think they still wait for a while. They see the market can increase significantly this time, and that makes them watch closely of the market. But soon, after the price can down for a moment, they will use that time to buy bitcoin. I am sure that the increase in demand will happen in the market, and it's all about time that will answer. Meanwhile, we need to stay calm at this moment so we can prevent the virus outbreak in our environment.