Virus Bear Market?

[exstasie]

Some analysts believe the curve is flattening in Italy, Spain, and France: https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1246034563509477376/photo/1



If that theory is confirmed over the next week or so, it could be fuel for further relief rallying in stocks, real estate, commodities, and so on. It could help usher in a new narrative that we are in the "recovery phase" rather than a crisis.

On the other end of the spectrum is Sweden. No closings of schools or businesses, and the government only issued social distancing measures yesterday for the first time. It'll be interesting to see how the situation progresses there. I hope it doesn't become the next place where cases surge. https://www.insider.com/sweden-a-scandinavian-hold-out-finally-set-distancing-guidelines-2020-4

[Arkann]

Some analysts believe the curve is flattening in Italy, Spain, and France: https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1246034563509477376/photo/1
If that theory is confirmed over the next week or so, it could be fuel for further relief rallying in stocks, real estate, commodities, and so on. It could help usher in a new narrative that we are in the "recovery phase" rather than a crisis.

On the other end of the spectrum is Sweden. No closings of schools or businesses, and the government only issued social distancing measures yesterday for the first time. It'll be interesting to see how the situation progresses there. I hope it doesn't become the next place where cases surge. https://www.insider.com/sweden-a-scandinavian-hold-out-finally-set-distancing-guidelines-2020-4

You really have very interesting observations on the performance of these countries and a rather optimistic mood, but it seems to me that we can only hope for an improvement in the economic situation if the spread of the virus decreases.  Namely, quarantine is a very effective way, but this method adversely affects the economy or impedes its development completely.  We have to admit the fact that only a few weeks have passed since the virus began to spread in Europe, and economic problems have already reached large scale, while in the United States of America the problems are growing almost every 24 hours and the government expects very bad consequences already in  the next two weeks.  Based on this, I believe that we can hope for certain results only by looking through the prism of the fight against the virus in a certain country.  Although taking into account the cryptocurrency market, this sector will only develop, even in conditions of complete isolation.

[bearexin]

I'm not sure of a bull run this year after the halving on May. Before we were all hoping that the next halving will get us out from the low range, but now we are not sure about that. We are already in the month of April, so the halving will be taking place in a month and few days.

It will be better that we all have patience and wait till then to know where the price will go to after that. Then as for whether the covid-19 situation around the world caused the decrease in Bitcoin? That's what I'm not really sure about, though I have believed that it was the reason, but some people here have doubted that it caused it. Some fanatics are saying that covid-19 can never affect Bitcoin lol. This is a pandemic and it affects everything.

[Twentyonepaylots]

I'm not sure of a bull run this year after the halving on May. Before we were all hoping that the next halving will get us out from the low range, but now we are not sure about that. We are already in the month of April, so the halving will be taking place in a month and few days.

The halving event comes near and near every day, I'm not worried about the price if it goes up, down or not, whatever happens, happens. Just stick at what the past halvings did to the price of bitcoin well even it just last for a week or two then dump again. If bull run does not come off after the halving then we might wait again for a very long time. Just curious, every time we can start the bull run so why do we need  to wait for the halving to come? haha.

It will be better that we all have patience and wait till then to know where the price will go to after that. Then as for whether the covid-19 situation around the world caused the decrease in Bitcoin? That's what I'm not really sure about, though I have believed that it was the reason, but some people here have doubted that it caused it. Some fanatics are saying that covid-19 can never affect Bitcoin lol. This is a pandemic and it affects everything.

Yeah, patience, might give you the reward that you are waiting or the thing that fool your eyes for a very long time. Upgrade your instinct and analysis that will be the stair to another floor.

[barbara44]

I love days like this, many bear people will go away to hiding in these days and they will not talk about "how bad bitcoin is and how it is dying" because its an awesome day, watch them go out of hiding when price goes down once again, whenever price goes down they go into hiding and can't answer the awesome increase in the price but whenever it falls they start talking about how bitcoin is dead once again.

Right now price looks to be around 6.9k levels, a bit higher than that but not 7k just yet, when the year started we were around 7.1k to 7.2k which means we are literally 200 dollars behind what the year to date price would be. There is corona, there is 50k+ death, there is economic scare, everyone is afraid, all markets collapse, yet bitcoin is literally less than 2% behind what it would need to be profitable.

[FlightyPouch]

I agree! We must overcome Covid19 to recover the market and it will not be an easy task because the pandemic will leave a bleak environment. We must work hard to recover everything we have accomplished in the crypto market. Sadly, we are seeing humanity threatened by a very dangerous pandemic.

And that will start by us following the quarantine policies of the government and our community. The pandemic is not directly affecting the price but it does on those people and selling some of the crypto currency investments so they would have some money they can use to buy foods and other kinds of stuff. I hope everyone is safe and keeps on looking at the price.

[very_452001]

Whats this I'm hearing about Tether USDT printing a lot of tokens not backed by real cash? Is it Tether keeping BTC on a life support machine during this virus pandemic keeping BTC above 6K?

Whats the implications for BTC if there is no audit for Tether USDT?

[exstasie]

Whats this I'm hearing about Tether USDT printing a lot of tokens not backed by real cash? Is it Tether keeping BTC on a life support machine during this virus pandemic keeping BTC above 6K?

There hasn't been evidence Tether has ever printed unbacked tokens.

This is what happened: Bitfinex and Tether are related. Same directors, same everything. Bitfinex's banking partner (Crypto Capital) had accounts worth $850 million seized by regulators. To fix the USD liquidity problem, they borrowed money from Tether, thereby making USDT no longer 1:1 backed by USD. When this came to light and people started freaking out, they launched a private token sale raising $1 billion to cover the shortfall.

I don't think Tether is "keeping BTC on life support." I think the March crash wiped out an insane amount of liquidity. There just aren't many sellers left right now.

Whats the implications for BTC if there is no audit for Tether USDT?

Nobody cares about a Tether audit. Everybody knows it's not coming.

[pixie85]

I agree! We must overcome Covid19 to recover the market and it will not be an easy task because the pandemic will leave a bleak environment. We must work hard to recover everything we have accomplished in the crypto market. Sadly, we are seeing humanity threatened by a very dangerous pandemic.

The virus did not crash the market. The panic caused by countermeasures did.

How many people died from this virus? How many of those dead people did not have any serious health problems before catching the virus? Not many.

The virus killed only 64000 people in 3 months. Lung cancer kills almost 2 million people every year! You have at least 20 times greater probability od dying from cancer but there's no panic and countries are not shutting down because of cancer.

The real threat is the death of tourism and a possible bankruptcy of airlines, hotels, cinemas and restaurants all around the world.

[Magkirap]

I agree! We must overcome Covid19 to recover the market and it will not be an easy task because the pandemic will leave a bleak environment. We must work hard to recover everything we have accomplished in the crypto market. Sadly, we are seeing humanity threatened by a very dangerous pandemic.

The virus did not crash the market. The panic caused by countermeasures did.

How many people died from this virus? How many of those dead people did not have any serious health problems before catching the virus? Not many.

The virus killed only 64000 people in 3 months. Lung cancer kills almost 2 million people every year! You have at least 20 times greater probability od dying from cancer but there's no panic and countries are not shutting down because of cancer.

The real threat is the death of tourism and a possible bankruptcy of airlines, hotels, cinemas and restaurants all around the world.

Indeed, it is not the virus itself that causes the market to crash but the actions of people who are experiencing panic. Actually the virus have no serious effect to the crypto market, our economy is the real thing that is in danger here just what you have said. Companies that have no relation about foods or goods that needed right now will be facing huge loss because of this virus, there are the ones in danger and it will have huge visible effect ones we get out of this crisis.

[BitcoinTurk]

I would like to answer the questions you ask based on my own experience and knowledge. I warn you at the very beginning of my comment, I am not a professional economist and my answers are based on my own thoughts and experiences.

1) Covid-19 virus recently caused the crash of btc over a week ago?

The virus caused a great shock not only in the cryptocurrency markets, but in all world markets. Yes, Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies have also had a major impact, but this was true for all markets, not just the cryptocurrency markets. So, it's not just something that has affected Bitcoin price or crypto markets.

2) Government saying this virus hype can last till next year, meaning Btc crash will be sustained to new lows this year similar to a virus bear market till next year when the virus fear hype is over?

Unless the virus loses its effect, it will have a bad effect on all economic markets. That is why if this virus spreads over a long period of time, the crypto markets will also be affected.


3) Will Btc halving this May coming will get us out of this virus bear market?

Although it is certain that the halfway process will have a positive effect on the price, I do not think it will end bad market conditions. If the virus loses its effect until the halfway process, it may be reasonable to expect serious increases in price with the half-effect.

4) Whats covid-19 virus got to do with Bitcoin? Its not a computer or blockchain virus that attacks btc so why Btc crash?

Actually, I wrote the answer to this question in the answer of the first question. The virus affected the cryptocurrency markets badly as it affected the world markets in general. For this reason, there have been serious decreases in the prices of Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies.

5) In global recessions/depressions/global economic meltdowns people turn to gold/silver and digital gold such as bitcoin so why bitcoin crash and gold market not crashing in times like these?

Due to the bad market conditions, many people actually sold instead of buying Bitcoin. For this reason, Bitcoin price declined and could not keep up with the gold / silver price.

[criza]

Whats covid-19 virus got to do with Bitcoin? Its not a computer or blockchain virus that attacks btc so why Btc crash?

The corona virus ultimately affected a lot of people around the globe, with the quarantine, a lot of people are losing jobs or income to pay for their needs especially those who have already responsibilities or family with them. Losing income leads people and possible holders or investors of Bitcoin to sell, thus, making the price of and demand for the coin to go down.

But, these days have shown a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin, wherein, we could conclude that it is gradually recovering and people starting to adopt in the crisis.

[Cratoon]

I feel that during this crisis a majority of countries will be emitting more of their national currencies, resulting in a growth of main cryptocurrencies.
I believe that it will be wise to hold BTC for next 2 months or so.

[very_452001]

I feel that during this crisis a majority of countries will be emitting more of their national currencies, resulting in a growth of main cryptocurrencies.
I believe that it will be wise to hold BTC for next 2 months or so.

What you mean emitting their national currencies?


Are markets in a dead cat bounce now? and do we expect to see a lot of volatility in the Dow Jones and BTC markets in the coming weeks while this lock-down is still in place?
Bitcoin is over 7k now. Whos buying it to keep it above 7k as google trends does not correlate to this?

These are the conditions I see:

- Dow Jones and BTC will go up and stabilise back to normal figures before the pandemic if we either get out of lock-down or Vaccine is announced or people have to spend their govt bail out cheques on BTC and the stock market to keep the markets stabilised. Gold will come down in price. Which one is it or what you think it is?

Or

- Dow Jones and BTC will be volatile during lock-down and these lock-downs can be extended by govt for months or even into next year meaning we will see a volatile virus bear markets with a lot of bull traps and bear traps during this period? Possible for newer market crashes in lock-down period? Gold can reach all new ATH's.


If you disagree then whats your long term analysis you like to share with us?

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[exstasie]

Are markets in a dead cat bounce now? and do we expect to see a lot of volatility in the Dow Jones and BTC markets in the coming weeks while this lock-down is still in place?
Bitcoin is over 7k now. Whos buying it to keep it above 7k as google trends does not correlate to this?

Google trends doesn't matter. It doesn't meaningfully correlate with price.

Trapped shorts and sellers from below $6K have provided a lot of buy pressure up until this point.

Dow Jones and BTC will go up and stabilise back to normal figures before the pandemic if we either get out of lock-down or Vaccine is announced or people have to spend their govt bail out cheques on BTC and the stock market to keep the markets stabilised. Gold will come down in price. Which one is it or what you think it is?

I don't think price can return to pre-pandemic levels so soon. There's been a massive economic contraction that is still ongoing. This needs to be priced in.

[sunsilk]

I feel that during this crisis a majority of countries will be emitting more of their national currencies, resulting in a growth of main cryptocurrencies.
I believe that it will be wise to hold BTC for next 2 months or so.

Emitting means printing? Is that correct? because it's truly that they are doing that to produce more money so that everyone can survive the crisis and that's the solution to provide more budget to supply things.

Specially in medical gears, there's a lot of countries that's facing the shortage.

And to the wise people who are taking advantage of the scenario, not afraid of investing and chose to buy bitcoin. They are in good hands and time will tell for this decision that they have made and it will make them proud.

[SirLancelot]

The market is already in a good position now. After falling to $3k, the bulls were able to pull the price back up and after circling $5k and $4k price range, the price was able to move up to $6k price and stayed stable for a time and then moved to the current $7k price.

So I wouldn’t say that it’s bearish, it’s progressing smoothly. You also need to have it in mind that Bitcoin is a volatile asset, so at anytime, anything can happen. That the price is going up now doesn’t mean it’s not going to drop down to a low price, that can still happen, but for now the price has been increasing and I’m happy with that.

[sana54210]

Interestingly I would agree that price couldn't go back to pre-pandemic times but it looks like it is in recovery, there is absolutely nothing that should make it in recovery, by all accounts it should be going down even further but looking at what is going on right now I would say it is widely ignoring all of that and everywhere around the world economy is "recovering" somehow.

Not the pockets of people who needs to buy stuff, like you and me, but stuff like gold, stock markets and crypto all look like they are recovering which normally should be indicator of how people are doing but right now it is not, its literally the reverse. So, they are actually going up despite of all the potential bad stuff going around right now and how the future is looking.

[xSkylarx]

All people are affected on this pandemic this includes cryptocurrency investors. Most had sell their crypto to be able to survive since the pandemic had caused the ecomy to fall. This totally affected crypto market as a whole. If the economic effect of the will last for a year,  the crypto market as we expect it to grow when the halving occurs might not take it's course.

[Savemore]

All people are affected on this pandemic this includes cryptocurrency investors. Most had sell their crypto to be able to survive since the pandemic had caused the ecomy to fall. This totally affected crypto market as a whole. If the economic effect of the will last for a year,  the crypto market as we expect it to grow when the halving occurs might not take it's course.

I think there will be a small effect to the price of the bitcoin after the halving or maybe there will no effect at all. This crisis will be recorded in the history because of the collapsing of the economy. It is true that there are now investors who are selling their cryptocurrencies and other speculative assets because they need cash to survive while the lockdown is still occurring. I don't know on how many days it will take before our economy to recover.