Virus Bear Market?

[very_452001]

So this summarise; Bitcoin price went down because Long Term Investors Hodlers sold their bitcoins because they lost their jobs and needed to sell btc for paper fiat because they needed cash to pay for rent and pay for food to survive on? So the original capital cash these investors used to buy btc before the pandemic wasnt risk free capital to begin with?

Secondly this Coronavirus pandemic is a Black Swan Event for the markets. Do you guys see this black swan event as bullish or bearish and reasons why?

Thirdly there was a post earlier saying even if the virus goes away, markets wont make a V or U or W shape recovery resulting in recession or great depression? Why is that? Because of Irreversible economic damage that has been done?

What indicator confirms that bitcoin is stop correlated to the stock market or gold market?

Oil market reporting oil barrel costing -$37 meaning if I fill my truck or car with a barrel of oil the fuel station owes me $37. What is your take on this?

Also millions of Americans are unemployed meaning will they use their govt bailout cheques to buy btc or use it to pay for debt and bills? If paying for debts then who will be the buyers be for btc to push btc into a new bull market to $10k? The chinese, south korea or even Swedish buyers? These countries are not in lockdown.

Lastly I hear the vaccine is new revolutionary, a new design invention of vaccine designed by Bill Gates that contain a nano microchip inside the vaccine that takes a long time to Patent and a long time to mass produce the vaccine for the billions of people worldwide. Only profitable companies/organisation patent a product so other companies cannot copy their product or steal their idea. So I assume Bill Gates will make a lot of money from this Vaccine as he will have a monopoly on this vaccine like he did with computer microsoft windows operating systems. Whether its a vaccine or a E-Tattoo waiting for Patent approval I bet Bill Gates will say the Vaccine will require such technologies because they can track infections/viruses and report data back in real time and also report which people avoided the vaccine by scanning people.

Finally the governments are saying theres gonna be a wave 2 or several waves of the virus e.g. Covid-20 later this year or next year so of course governments worldwide will buy what Bill Gates is selling so governments and health departments can track the virus in real time and let people know exactly when to go into future lockdowns or what periods are safe to leave the house after vaccine has been injected into the masses.

All this makes sense that the revolutionary new type vaccine will take 12-18 months like the Governments said. The question is what will BTC market look like during the next 12-18 months?

Also when everybody takes the vaccine and theres no guarantee that the vaccine wont be outdated for the new strain covid-20 or futures waves of pandemics, similar to the flu vaccine that is outdated as the flu virus strain evolves every year to a new strain then how will the markets respond to future lockdowns and future exit lockdowns? This new nano particle vaccines and E-Tattoos just provides real time statistics to the governments and no guarantee of curing the infection or curing evolved new strains of covid-19, indicating governments will make the vaccine mandatory requiring injections every year to stay up to date against the virus so they will say future lockdowns will be avoided and everything will be back to normal if everyone get their regular yearly injections but for the people who refuse to take the vaccine as I bet half of you here on these forums will refuse it for your personal reasons, the government will blame the anti-vaxxers for future lockdowns or put anti-vaxxers only into lockdown.




Okay I can see markets are recovering on the bases of hoping lock-down restrictions are lifted and everything is back to normal by June.

However... Governments are saying there might be a 2nd wave of the virus later this year or next year. Will we experience another crash like we had in march when 2nd wave hits?

Some countries have eased lock-down but eased doesn't mean back to normal. Eased means there are still some restrictions in place. How will this affect markets and economy, is it in a volatile way? Also eased down lock-downs mean more people will get together and governments will say virus cases have gone back up relating to the 1st wave of the virus and proper lockdown will be re-introduced. Will markets and economy have a crash from this?

Also does shutting down businesses in lockdown and businesses re-opening in ease lockdown and shutting down again in 2nd lockdown on 2nd wave of the virus. What kind of damage this can do to a business or company where its open and closed for long durations during the year? Will companies increases prices to make up losses during the shutdown periods?

Government will say the only way to end these type of disruptions is a vaccine. Only after a vaccine then we will see a proper recovery of the markets right?

Whats your take on this? I have a feeling it wont be simply a U or V shape recovery. Its gonna be volatile like M or W until a vaccine right? If theres no vaccine and theres a 2nd wave then it will be L game over for the markets, but where does bitcoin stands?



[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

[1715421202]

1715421202

[1715421202]

1715421202

[1715421202]

1715421202

[CarnagexD]

When the pandemic virus outbreak starts rapidly spreading there are a lot of transactions getting canceled because they scared got to be infected by this kind of virus so what is more important life or money. As a good decision, it is better to make stay safe than dies into this kind of virus by that many establishments got closed because they avoid getting attached to different people who came from infected places. Also one of the problems we face from the previous month is the market price of fiat currency and the oil those source of income have problematic outcome because both of these are rapidly drop in just a single week and after that, the cryptocurrency follows which is not good to the investors hoping that the market price of the coin becomes profitable to them.

...On the other side investors need cash to by necessities so some of us sell their assets resulting for the market to turn bearish. Its not because of the virus but because of the investors who sell for different reasons.

At a time when many people sit at home and do not receive a salary, income from cryptocurrency remains the only earnings. Therefore, many people instead of expecting a high price for bitcoin are forced to sell it now at the current price. But the good news is that we don't have to sit around in quarantine.

Those people who made the last option which is selling their funds even they lose a lot this is their choice because you can earn it again the bitcoins but life isn't so it is a good thing to save your self and your family to this virus than your money.

[pragna]

In global recessions/depressions/global economic meltdowns people turn to gold/silver and digital gold such as bitcoin so why bitcoin crash and gold market not crashing in times like these?

I think BTC not crashing at this moment because of fiat money crisis. Many government already printing money to save their people as well as. At the same time people who are in home trying to earn alternative way and cryptocurrency is the best way they are seeing. In this virus time if they invest or gain money from home that may be best one and that may be main reason to btc high market.

thanks.

[ecnalubma]

During the early days of the pandemic and then follows the lockdowns I think its normal for Btc to crash due to people panicking that they need cash for this uncertain situation. But as we look at the market now, its truly an independent asset that regardless of the crisis is still making big surge in price specially that halving is coming in next few days.

[hahay]

During the early days of the pandemic and then follows the lockdowns I think its normal for Btc to crash due to people panicking that they need cash for this uncertain situation. But as we look at the market now, its truly an independent asset that regardless of the crisis is still making big surge in price specially that halving is coming in next few days.

If this is the case then I assume if the previous decline is not related to anxiety or panic due to the Covid-19 pandemic, if the collapse of the crypto market yesterday was due to this pandemic then surely the decline or its lowest value would be greatly destroyed might be lower than 3k, who know, because the situation is very worrying. I just assumed the market collapse yesterday was probably just a normal situation because of a big correction before the halving bitcoin happened, with the current spike there is at least nothing more to worry about in this chaotic situation due to this pandemic.

[BD Money365]

The planet of crypto currency cascade down as at hand are more or less individuals converted their money into fiat currency, honorable to sidestep having the need of sources to endure the outbreak. Still we are looking send to generate additional earning little the virus is spreading. for the reason that around of the relatives at the moment admit the utilize of crypto or the digital currency as payment. as it is nearer and protected furthermore they don't want to pass on outside as roughly of the seats at the moment finished a lockdown to let alone fill consciousness infected.

[exstasie]

Okay I can see markets are recovering on the bases of hoping lock-down restrictions are lifted and everything is back to normal by June.

However... Governments are saying there might be a 2nd wave of the virus later this year or next year. Will we experience another crash like we had in march when 2nd wave hits?

That's the million dollar question. I would say so, yes. The market seems to be running in broad sentiment cycles. Right now, nothing can stop the exuberance behind the promised economic recovery, not even unprecedented contractions and Depression-level unemployment.

All that optimism is based on a robust reopening of the economy. A second wave (especially if it's a much stronger wave as with the Spanish Flu), combined with the regular flu season is very likely to overwhelm health care systems again. That will in turn call for economic shutdowns. That will reverse all the previous optimism and likely cause another crisis in the markets.

What kind of damage this can do to a business or company where its open and closed for long durations during the year? Will companies increases prices to make up losses during the shutdown periods?

These shutdowns are extremely costly for businesses. Big damage to cashflow and supply chains, wasted overheads.

I don't know that companies can increase prices in this atmosphere. They already have excess productive capacity and inventory and consumers have way less money than before. I think we're going to see a cycle of layoffs and bankruptcies.

[Jating]

Okay I can see markets are recovering on the bases of hoping lock-down restrictions are lifted and everything is back to normal by June.

I don't think that we will be back normal soon. This pandemic has somewhat reset everyone's outlook in life.

However... Governments are saying there might be a 2nd wave of the virus later this year or next year. Will we experience another crash like we had in march when 2nd wave hits?

If I'm not mistaken, countries that eases up, like South Korea and China was this kind fo 2nd wave already.

Whats your take on this? I have a feeling it wont be simply a U or V shape recovery. Its gonna be volatile like M or W until a vaccine right? If theres no vaccine and theres a 2nd wave then it will be L game over for the markets, but where does bitcoin stands?

Even without this pandemic, It won't be very easy to see the price goes on a parabola. It will still be very volatile, sideways market, few break outs here and there. But I don't think it will be a L game, we might see some corrections, but it doesn't mean we can't bounce back.

[smyslov]

During the early days of the pandemic and then follows the lockdowns I think its normal for Btc to crash due to people panicking that they need cash for this uncertain situation. But as we look at the market now, its truly an independent asset that regardless of the crisis is still making big surge in price specially that halving is coming in next few days.

It rebounded we have all the whales and the believers to thank, for not dumping their shares those who dump their shares are small holders who invest without confidence in the market, now that we are days before the halving the market will become more stable, it's hard to predict how high it could get we can only predict after the pandemic is over.

[Viscore]

During the early days of the pandemic and then follows the lockdowns I think its normal for Btc to crash due to people panicking that they need cash for this uncertain situation. But as we look at the market now, its truly an independent asset that regardless of the crisis is still making big surge in price specially that halving is coming in next few days.

It rebounded we have all the whales and the believers to thank, for not dumping their shares those who dump their shares are small holders who invest without confidence in the market, now that we are days before the halving the market will become more stable, it's hard to predict how high it could get we can only predict after the pandemic is over.

Whales could dump their bitcoin but that doesn't mean they will not buy back,

They are different from those who panic because they will dump and will continues their action as a loss, while these whales are smart enough to take advantage of the wrong decision by the weak hands, now that the market is bullish, let's thank of the upcoming halving but this bullish market does not guarantee that it will continue so we also have to be cautious, get out and sell if you are in profit, and just start to accumulate again if the price will dip, that's what I learn from my experience in the past.

[FlightyPouch]

In global recessions/depressions/global economic meltdowns people turn to gold/silver and digital gold such as bitcoin so why bitcoin crash and gold market not crashing in times like these?

I think BTC not crashing at this moment because of fiat money crisis. Many government already printing money to save their people as well as. At the same time people who are in home trying to earn alternative way and cryptocurrency is the best way they are seeing. In this virus time if they invest or gain money from home that may be best one and that may be main reason to btc high market.

thanks.

Or maybe just because of the halving coming up. I think a lot of people thought that before halving the price of bitcoin will go down or they are finding a good price to buy to be ready for it but as the date is closing, the price is rising so people have no choice but to buy at that price; the price is slowly falling now, maybe it is just the time for the correction or for that time to buy.

[Subbir]

Many lost their way due to the low price of Bitcoin nobody could have imagined that the worth of Bitcoin would rise such a lot at a time when the Fiat currency crisis is looming thanks to the virus the very fact that the Fiat currency has stabilized has also reduced its price. Everyone thought an equivalent was the case with Bitcoin But Bitcoin doesn't depend upon the economy of any country It depends on market conditions You're immediately it is time to repair it and buy Gradually its price is increasing more.

[royalfestus]

If we consider most of the reports for whales wallet transaction, they are still holding to there coin till now, over 2½ years . Most trades are very minimal for whales, this ones are very rich and may never consider trading those small pump and dump. we always believe we understand the process of dump and pump of bitcoin especially, it is more than the technical analysis. Am very happy the pandemic came this year not 2021 which could delay the bullrun more than we expect. I believe we are still in the 4 year cycle.

[cutesgirl]

Virus make bitcoin altcoin drop although this year have halving time, many moment bitcoin could not strong to go up after many countries faced with corona virus and give impact with many investors more saving their assets in cash money than hold with bitcoin and altcoin.

[very_452001]

If we consider most of the reports for whales wallet transaction, they are still holding to there coin till now, over 2½ years . Most trades are very minimal for whales, this ones are very rich and may never consider trading those small pump and dump. we always believe we understand the process of dump and pump of bitcoin especially, it is more than the technical analysis. Am very happy the pandemic came this year not 2021 which could delay the bullrun more than we expect. I believe we are still in the 4 year cycle.

Do you think the btc halving has already been priced in at near 10k?

What year are we in that 4 year cycle?

[figmentofmyass]

Do you think the btc halving has already been priced in at near 10k?

What year are we in that 4 year cycle?

if the 4 year cycle is real (and i'm not convinced it is) then 2020 = 2016. 2013 and 2017 were bubble years, which suggests that 2021 is the next one. there are two alternate possibilities to consider though.

1. the pattern is becoming too obvious so the next bubble will happen sooner (2020)
2. the 4 year cycle is a bunch of BS

there are probably still people buying based on the halving, and also people selling because they expect a post-halving dump, so i wouldn't call it priced in yet.

[Twentyonepaylots]

Do you think the btc halving has already been priced in at near 10k?

What year are we in that 4 year cycle?

if the 4 year cycle is real (and i'm not convinced it is) then 2020 = 2016. 2013 and 2017 were bubble years, which suggests that 2021 is the next one. there are two alternate possibilities to consider though.

1. the pattern is becoming too obvious so the next bubble will happen sooner (2020)

If people would follow of what is obvious then it will happen sooner or later than what it should be, coz man speculation these days are pretty massive.

2. the 4 year cycle is a bunch of BS

I don't know man, it seems like people look at the market in a very technical way when it should be not simply because it is decentralized, people should not be relying on the technical side as it is just a past data hoping to happen again.

there are probably still people buying based on the halving, and also people selling because they expect a post-halving dump, so i wouldn't call it priced in yet.

Of course we all do, we made the halving event an opening for gullible people, look where are they now, looking for the 24hour price changes.

[EdvinZ]

The cryptocurrency market is similar to the stock market, not the gold market. The stock market collapsed, respectively, the price of cryptocurrencies collapsed too. Bitcoin is only conditionally called digital gold. The bearish trend may indeed resume after halving. If there is a second wave of coronavirus in the fall, the economic crisis will be even more devastating for the economy. The stock market, cryptocurrencies and commodities may show new price lows.

[FlightyPouch]

The cryptocurrency market is similar to the stock market, not the gold market. The stock market collapsed, respectively, the price of cryptocurrencies collapsed too. Bitcoin is only conditionally called digital gold. The bearish trend may indeed resume after halving. If there is a second wave of coronavirus in the fall, the economic crisis will be even more devastating for the economy. The stock market, cryptocurrencies and commodities may show new price lows.

For me, it isn't. The stock market are not similar to the market that we have. As the stock market having a rough time this pandemic, the price of bitcoin and other crypto currencies are having a good performance outperforming the stock market and even Gold. It is true though that the pandemic is affecting the crypto market but I don't think it is that bad as stock market.

[themohit]

Do you think the btc halving has already been priced in at near 10k?
What year are we in that 4 year cycle?

if the 4 year cycle is real (and i'm not convinced it is) then 2020 = 2016. 2013 and 2017 were bubble years, which suggests that 2021 is the next one. there are two alternate possibilities to consider though.
1. the pattern is becoming too obvious so the next bubble will happen sooner (2020)
2. the 4 year cycle is a bunch of BS
there are probably still people buying based on the halving, and also people selling because they expect a post-halving dump, so i wouldn't call it priced in yet.

I can't believe there is such cycle either.
However there is a certain tendency and it is somehow tied up with timeline. I'm not sure it is sctrictly year-to-year cycle, I think there is a possibility for previous four year's path to be done in 3 years (for example) now.