U.S. Recession short term

[rambogoham1]

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.

North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should.

China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.

[1714106890]

1714106890

[1714106890]

1714106890

[exstasie]

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.

Yep, I've been saying this for a while. Everyone seems to expect a 2008-2009 repeat or worse. They are assuming the most catastrophic pandemic models are correct. There is still the possibility of a 1987-like crash, especially if this study turns out correct, as it will completely change the economic outlook.

These are in fact the exact price levels to bounce from (~ 35% crash) to keep that model intact.

North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.

Unemployment numbers are going to be scary. I expect the market to tumble when the latest BLS data comes out in a couple days.

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

Half of that stimulus package will be used to bail out companies. The Trump administration also indicated there is another $4 trillion in spending coming on top of this package.

[stompix]

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.
North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

You know, sometimes I think we should have also a shale gas obituary, just like we have with bitcoin.
I've heard so many times that the shale sector is going to die that I'm actually bored of it, it has died in 2014, in 2016 in 2018...but it seems it's more resistant that this damn virus.
And even if the price forces companies to stop drilling once the prices go up there will be more drillers again, even so shale gas alone won't trigger a recession, cheap gas prices have always helped Americans, what is going to affect us all is the economic slowdown caused by this coronacrap.

This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should.

And seriously, whoever thinks that this is good for us, let's cheer for BTC!!! needs to follow Jimmy Hoffa.
Around here (Europe) things are still calm but companies are slowly reducing staff, commerce is down, two-car factories shut down, for a while there will be money, in the long run, god knows...and no...this won't be god for bitcoin. It won't be good for the dollar, for the yen for anybody
If the US enters a recession everybody will follow, from China to Argentina and Iceland to New Zeeland, and the worst hit will be those that can't afford to pay even a 1sat tx, let alone buy some bitcoins.

[Hydrogen]

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.

North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should.

China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.

Reagan and Trump's policies are very similar, with both utilizing tax cuts in an effort to incentivize investment and growth. Trump's approach to finance and economics are near polar opposite to Obama's in 2008.  If we see a recovery, with Trump as President. It will more closely resemble the 1987 recovery, when Reagan was President.

-Oil's decreasing value is based on reduced demand. Global transportation and shipping being on steep declines. Demand will pick up if circumstances return to normal.

-Not everyone receives the $1200. Only recently unemployed workers afaik.

-It seems some of the federal reserve's bailouts are finding their way into chinese markets. Its the only thing that explains chinese stocks doing so well.

[exstasie]

Reagan and Trump's policies are very similar, with both utilizing tax cuts in an effort to incentivize investment and growth. Trump's approach to finance and economics are near polar opposite to Obama's in 2008.  If we see a recovery, with Trump as President. It will more closely resemble the 1987 recovery, when Reagan was President.

I think this crash better parallels 1987 than 2008 but it's not because of the policies mounted in response. Trump and Obama's stimulus policies are almost exactly the same. It's a matter of circumstance. 2008 resulted from systemic failures, not an external catalyst like 2020.

-Not everyone receives the $1200. Only recently unemployed workers afaik.

Pretty much everyone who makes < $99,000 a year and has a Social Security number will get a check. Even Social Security beneficiaries who already get government checks will get one. The expansion of unemployment benefits is a separate thing. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/congress-to-send-taxpayers-1200-checks-in-the-wake-of-coronavirus.html

[Meowth05]

This recession will have a big impact on the deciding factor whether the US economy will head to a long recession or a short one, China is making a good move, I commend that because for me that is how you play politics, you make a good decision out of the bad situation.

[davis196]

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.

North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should.

China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.

1.The time frame of the recession depends of the way USA fights the pandemic.Lockdowns,mass testing,preparation of the hospitals and the production and delivery of protective clothes,masks,purell,etc.
2.Oil prices can go up,if the USA reduces oil production.Countries like Russia won't survive low oil prices as well,so they might reduce oil prices too.
3.The 2 trillion dollar stimulus plan is crucial for fighting the recession,but I don't think that 2 trillion is enough.
4.China's export will be hit by a global recession.That's why China has to help the world now.

[abhiseshakana]

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.

North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should.

China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.

The 2008-2009 crisis was actually a financial crisis. Starting and growing in the financial sector, then it spreads to the real sector because of the blocked access to finance. In contrast to 2008-2009, the coronavirus is a phenomenon in the real sector that is creeping into the financial sector. The impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 is very different from the impact of the coronavirus.

The 2008 global financial crisis was purely an economic phenomenon. The reason is the explosion of bad loans in the property sector (sub-prime mortgage) which turned out to involve many systemic institutions. So 2008 contagion came from financial institutions, especially from banks, capital markets because there was a sentiment which then influenced stability. Whereas Corona directly hits the real sector because it involves the problem of people who don't dare to do mobility, don't do activities, so that it affects the real sector, investment, manufacturing.

The biggest impact of the corona to the financial sector is through interest rates, exchange rates, non-performing loans (NPLs) or problem loans, psychological sentiments, and the state budget because the government needs to provide fiscal stimulus amid this economic pressure. What is happening now is the panic of all global financial market players and capital owners due to the rapid spread of the virus to various countries, this makes global investors release financial assets in various forms on global financial markets and a number of countries. Starting from stocks, bonds, and others. They sell it in the form of US dollar cash, so there is a strengthening of the US dollar on the financial market.

Whereas the recovery for the corona outbreak will not be as heavy as the 2008 crisis which took almost 7 years because the US only raised its benchmark interest rate at the end of 2015. Seeing from the pandemic in China it should be in 2021, the economy has accelerated again.

[TrevorS]

Each recession to one degree or another is not similar to the previous one.
As a rule, the stronger the economic ties between countries have grown, the more these countries are dependent on each other,
which means that a sharp break in such ties can easily lead to disastrous consequences for the economy.

[avikz]

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.

North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should.

China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.

As per my calculation, this currently recession is not a long one! The entire world is facing it, so do US! The moment we are out of this COVID-19 situation, the market is going to see a huge uptrend.

My analysis:
Majority of the markets are closed due to the current situation - people aren't going out to buy mobile or car, companies have stopped producing of all sorts of luxury or even regular items so millions of people lost their jobs! And such things are hitting insurance sector and mortgage banking sector real hard. But this is a temporary situation.

As soon as this virus is controlled, production companies will open up who are mainly the mass recruiters. As soon as the market opens, it will start creating demands in the market. People will get jobs and move out from their sabbatical situation.

It's a chain and it will fall in place soon after the market opens up. It will definitely not be another 2008. World is now more prepared to handle such situation.

If you have money, go invest in stocks of big companies who are hit by this virus. It could be a dream come true for you!

[mu_enrico]

I think it will last between 10 and 16 months, just guesstimate because of history. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp

The current situation is like a war, where the US lost thousands life, spend a lot of money to fight the enemy, provide medications to the survivors, etc. I'm not saying the death count because of this virus would be thousands though.

[figmentofmyass]

the wall street journal just declared an end to the bear market: https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1243267094852055041

Breaking: A new bull market has begun. The Dow has rallied more than 20% since hitting a low three days ago, ending the shortest bear market ever.

something tells me this prediction will not age well. if that was the shortest bear market ever, then this bounce will probably be the shortest bull market ever too.

[LazerSMS]

When the Dow Jones will be around 14500 it will have lost 50% of its value since the peak in February

We can definitely reach there during April

[exstasie]

I think it will last between 10 and 16 months, just guesstimate because of history. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/past-recessions.asp

The current situation is like a war, where the US lost thousands life, spend a lot of money to fight the enemy, provide medications to the survivors, etc.

We're even seeing WW2-style corporate repurposing, with private factories switching to manufacturing medical and other essential supplies: https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/21/business/bc-us-virus-outbreak-repurposing-factories.html

Governments are also eyeing idle hotels as potential hospital sites. The whole thing is like a hybrid between the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic and WW2, minus the war part.

I'm amazed at the resilience of stock markets in the face of 3.3 million American jobless claims. I had been predicting a relief rally but I had almost stopped believing it could actually happen! I don't expect this exuberance to last for too long.

[FanEagle]

Will be? It is literally in recession right now, USA will not recover from this all that easily because they are using the tax payers money to baloon up the stock prices that eventually goes down whenever something bad happens and they are left with nothing.

All that trillions of dollars tax cuts to companies in return of "bettering the economy" all went up in smokes, the idea was simply give the huge companies a tax break so that they would use that to get bigger and bigger and get more profits and hire more people because they would be getting bigger. Well, what happened? Those companies used those tax cuts to pay the CEO a lot of money and they used it to give shareholders a bigger return and whenever something bad like this happened it went back to zero and had to start all over again.

I am not saying government has no fault neither, companies are known to make these shady stuff, government should have used it for something else instead.

[Sadlife]

Historically expecting this financial crisis is much worse because of the unlimited quantitative easing and 0 interest rates and with $1200 bailout. The fed is really out of control and the oil with its decreasing supply and the pandamic making it much worse.
This are all fuels for the Bitcoin price, there will be time that people will lose confidence in cash.

[boyptc]

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

It's said that the stimulus amounts to $6T which will be around $46k per family. There's another thread for this specific topic --> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5235342.0

China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.

With what I have read, they've bought a lot of cheap stocks.

[Hydrogen]

I think this crash better parallels 1987 than 2008 but it's not because of the policies mounted in response. Trump and Obama's stimulus policies are almost exactly the same. It's a matter of circumstance. 2008 resulted from systemic failures, not an external catalyst like 2020.

Pretty much everyone who makes < $99,000 a year and has a Social Security number will get a check. Even Social Security beneficiaries who already get government checks will get one. The expansion of unemployment benefits is a separate thing. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/congress-to-send-taxpayers-1200-checks-in-the-wake-of-coronavirus.html

IMO Trump is an advocate of allowing consumers and free markets to address and solve problems society faces. Trump's tax cuts put more money in the hands of consumers and free markets. Which gives them greater liquidity to create jobs, address unemployment, welfare, poverty and other social economic issues.

Policies of Obama and the majority of politicians in the world, are the opposite. They focus on raising taxes and increasing state spending. Under the assumption big, centralized, governments can better solve issues relating to job markets, unemployment, welfare, poverty et al.

Trump is handing out free $$. But will likely deter tax hikes which prevent his bailout programs being becoming UBI or social security 2.0.

IMO anyway.

I'm amazed at the resilience of stock markets in the face of 3.3 million American jobless claims. I had been predicting a relief rally but I had almost stopped believing it could actually happen! I don't expect this exuberance to last for too long.

I think this explains it.

The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market's move since 2008: Analysis

The bull market just celebrated its seventh anniversary. But the gains in recent years – as well as its recent sputter – may be explained by just one thing: monetary policy.

The factors behind that and previous bubbles can be illuminated using simple visual analysis of a chart.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) doubled in value from November 2008 to October 2014, coinciding with the Federal Reserve Bank’s “quantitative easing” asset purchasing program. After three rounds of “QE,” where the Fed poured billions of dollars into the bond market monthly, the Fed’s balance sheet went from $2.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion.

This isn’t just a spurious correlation, according to economist Brian Barnier, principal at ValueBridge Advisors and founder of FedDashboard.com. What’s more, he says previous bull runs in the market lasting several years can also be explained by single factors each time.

Barnier first compiled data on the total value of publicly-traded U.S. stocks since 1950. He then divided it by another economic factor, graphing the ratio for each one. If the chart showed horizontal lines stretching over long periods of time, that meant both the numerator (stock values) and the denominator (the other factor) were moving at the same rate.

“That's the beauty of the visual analysis,” he said. “All we have to do is find straight, stable lines and we know we've got something good.”

Scouring hundreds of different factors, Barnier ultimately whittled it down to just four factors: GDP data five years into the future, household and nonprofit liabilities, open market paper, and the Fed’s assets. At different stretches of time, just one of those was the single biggest driver of the market and was confirmed with regression analyses.

He isolated each factor in a separate chart, calling them “eras” for the stock market.

From after World War II until the mid-1970s, future GDP outlook explained 90% of the stock market’s move, according to statistical analysis by Barnier.

GDP growth lost its sway on the market in the early 1970s with the rise of credit cards and consumer debt. Household liabilities grew with plastic first, followed by home mortgages, until the real estate crash of the early 1990s. Barnier’s analysis shows debt explained 95% of the entire market’s move during this time.

The period between the mid- to late-1990s until 2000 was, of course, marked by the tech bubble. While stocks took much of the headline, that time also saw heightened activity in the commercial paper market. Startups and young companies sought cash beyond their stratospheric share values to fund their operations. Barnier’s regression analysis shows commercial paper increases could explain as much as 97% of the tech bubble.

Shortly after the tech bubble burst, a housing bubble began, once more in the form of mortgages and other debt. That drove 94% of the market’s move for the first several years of the current century.

As the financial crisis reached a fevered pitch in 2008, the Federal Reserve took to flooding the financial market with dollars by buying up bonds. Simultaneously, interest rates fell dramatically, as bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. Barnier sees the Fed as responsible for over 93% of the market from the start of QE until today. During the first half of 2013, the Fed caused the entire market’s growth, he said.
Since the Fed stopped buying bonds in late 2014, the S&P 500 has been batted around in a 16% range and is more or less where it was when the QE came to a close. Investors need to anticipate the next driver, said Barnier.

“Quantitative easing has stopped, but now we're into the interest rate world,” he said. “That means for any investor trying to figure out what to do, step one is starting with a macro strategy.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-fed-caused-93--of-the-entire-stock-market-s-move-since-2008--analysis-194426366.html

[sujon5]

People are expecting 2008 crisis repeat, but 2008 crash wasn't as sudden as upcoming one. So 1987-like crash model is more correct for the current situation.

[dothebeats]

The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.

If it's the 1987 type of recession, USA will have it good. The plunge will be sudden, but the recovery will also be doable within a short span of time.

North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.

True. With the sudden decrease on oil demands all over the world, there is no reason why would oil refineries would be wanting to ramp up production--or to even sustain their volume of production currently. The best thing these oil companies could see as to save some money during this crisis is to lay off some employees and just hope for the best.

Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.

Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.

This would further cripple the economy as everyone and their mothers are eagerly wanting to take out cash from insurance and from the government as a response to the COVID-19 threat. The thing is, the US government never anticipated the worst case scenario and thought that they are somewhat immune against the ravages of the disease, and look where it got them.

China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.

Which makes me think that this is an elaborate plan for the world economies to crash while China stays afloat. Then again, it must be more of me being into conspiracies but who knows?