How long this crisis will be?

[jfarras]

For the people in this community that understand spanish, I wanted to share this video I created yesterday comparing the current situation with the different crisis we had in the last 100 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs5Yyvih14M&list=PLz_NVO61eqw70kA4Z9z854OoyibpDpOuq&index=2

Do you think it will be uglier than the others?
 
All feedback is welcome to keep improving!:)

[mu_enrico]

I've created the poll, somehow it has been put in off-topic lol
Just go there

Most people were very optimistic though. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5235238.0

[jackg]

The madness will probably stop in q2/3 (in three months). I cna imagine everything reopening then if it doesn't get fixed.

Hopefully the gov will just decide its more worthwhile to infect everyone determined healthy for 2 or 3 weeks and wait for them to recover and have enforced mass immunity of we can't get a vaccine fast enough...

[Ozero]

For the people in this community that understand spanish, I wanted to share this video I created yesterday comparing the current situation with the different crisis we had in the last 100 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs5Yyvih14M&list=PLz_NVO61eqw70kA4Z9z854OoyibpDpOuq&index=2

Do you think it will be uglier than the others?
 
All feedback is welcome to keep improving!:)

Coronavirus is not one of the scariest viruses that were previously. We see that the percentage of deaths from it is not very large. In the situation with coronavirus, the political hype and the active use of the global Internet by the population played a greater role. In the Middle Ages, the plague epidemic raged for 12 years, the countries of Europe then almost died out. Most likely, the coronavirus will be defeated by the fall, and under favorable conditions, earlier.
 At the same time, governments also need to think about how to neutralize the negative consequences of the spread of coronavirus and its impact on the economy of each state; we cannot avoid a very severe global economic crisis.

[Yaunfitda]

I haven't seen the video, but the last pandemic we have is the "Spanish" flu in 1918 that killed a lot of people back then. I don't think it will be uglier though, we have vastly improved since the last great pandemic.

So I'm hoping that in the next 3-6 months, a vaccine can be discovered to stop this madness. As of right now, self quarantine is not enough, the number of infected are growing.

A good visual, trajectory of every country here: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/

[mindrust]

I believe it will take quite long because the problem is not fixable at all.

The problem was always there before corona and it happened to come out on surface because of it. Printing more money and delaying the inevitable is not a solution neither. I guess we'll soon find out.

[Gozie51]

I think we are going to hear a good news on the covid-19 faster than we expect. Countries have gone into research on it and to my knowledge, it is not a terminal disease or a death sentence if contacted. Therefore, lives are preserved despite the rate of spread. It won't take longer, we have to secure ourselves for the meantime.

[Renampun]

the future nobody knows...
we will not know exactly when the crisis caused by the corona virus will be finished, countries other than China, there are still many who have just done a "Lockdown. I suspect this crisis will end in the next 3 to 4 months.

[mersal]

This is entirely new kind of pandemic so comparing it with others won't help us to determine how long it will last long.And probably this could be the shortest compared to others because we had developed a lot compared to last 100 years pandemic which is swine flu in health care so vaccine will be available before mass extinction of people.

[exstasie]

Hopefully the gov will just decide its more worthwhile to infect everyone determined healthy for 2 or 3 weeks and wait for them to recover and have enforced mass immunity of we can't get a vaccine fast enough...

Scary proposition given the long recovery timelines and hospitalization needs.

If this Oxford study is correct, we have basically already taken that route since most people (at least in high density areas) would have been infected by now. If it's not correct, then the herd immunity approach is dangerous because hospitals will become overwhelmed.

[bitbunnny]

Unfortunately, nobody doesn't have cristal ball to predict how situation will develope. So far it seems that we don't see the end of this health crisis yet and economy crisis is yet to come. However, I hope it will not be so bad as some say but if the world doesn't go back to normal within next month or two consequences will be long term and hard to fight. Although I'm usualy an optimist in this situation it's hard to keep positive attitude.

[travwill]

In fact, it is difficult to say how the virus actually behaves.
For example, a Spanish woman, a pandemic of the beginning of the last century, had 3 waves.
Moreover, the last two were significantly stronger than the first wave. Given the speed with which the coronovirus mutates, it is difficult to even imagine how the situation will develop.

[princesspoppy]

With the current technology and with the hardwork and perseverance of many researchers and doctors, we will hopefully soon hear good news about a vaccine or medicine to treat this coronavirus. I think it will not be worse and uglier (which I really hope) than any pandemic happened during 1918 which is Spanish flu where it leave many people dead. Let's all hope and pray for this pandemic to stop.

[coolbaughandrew]

I don't know Spanish, unfortunately, but this topic is very hot today. Maybe it isn't correct to compare upcoming crisis with already experienced ones. Some experts are sure that it will be like 2008 recession, I mean 2020 crisis will last more than a couple of months.

[figmentofmyass]

Maybe it isn't correct to compare upcoming crisis with already experienced ones. Some experts are sure that it will be like 2008 recession, I mean 2020 crisis will last more than a couple of months.

there are still too many unknowns at this point. it takes a few weeks to see real results from lockdowns and self quarantines. testing is also primarily only being done on symptomatic cases so we still know very little about how far this thing has spread, and how infectious it really is. those things obviously have a lot of bearing on the future economic costs of the pandemic.

i found this post illuminating---also a bit depressing, since it casts doubt on these "back to normal by april" theories:

The only way an early back-to-work works out well is if some of the more fringe epidemiology theories circulating hold and that the virus really has a R0 of 23 and a very low hospitalization rate and in fact a huge number of people have already been infected.  Existing data doesn't completely disprove this theory as far as I know but the growth rates of hospitalizations we've seen are pretty strong evidence against it. (If it were really the case that the virus was ludicrously infectious but just hospitalized very few people we would have seen the hospitalization rates spike much faster and everywhere almost at once).  I think these sorts of high R0 low-hospitalization rate theories are just hopeful fantasy.  There has been a lot of hopeful fantasy being thrown about by people who really don't want to face the reality-- this one is just a little less innumerate than most of them.

[Darker45]

I am on the belief that this is not going to be as bad and long-lasting as those other crises in the past years and decades. We are certainly more advanced now. I am sure the vaccine is coming, and this calamity we are facing right now will significantly die down within the second quarter of this year. 

I guess the primary reason why the virus is spreading very fast is that people are hard-headed. People lack the urgency. People underestimated this virus early on. We are now caught in the middle of this by surprise and finally begun to realize how grave this goes only when the situation is already growing worse.

[sunsilk]

Difficult to determine, the most affected district in China is open again. Now, the world is waiting for them to come and give the vaccine, antidote and any help that will solve this crisis quickly.

The death toll and confirmed cases are increasing from time to time. This brings fear, yes there were other plagues that affected more than this pandemic in the history but it's not the matter. We should apply being optimistic at these times that it will be solved asap just like what we're speculating with the bitcoin markets.

[jackg]

Difficult to determine, the most affected district in China is open again. Now, the world is waiting for them to come and give the vaccine, antidote and any help that will solve this crisis quickly.

Not sure how many people are going to trust a vaccine imported from China. Other drugs are different because you can do chemical tests to determine what they contain but I think vaccines are a little different. There's still a chance also that Europe will come up with some sort of vaccine before the end of this... (I'm not versed in licensing laws they may have to trial it in every customs area).

I am on the belief that this is not going to be as bad and long-lasting as those other crises in the past years and decades. We are certainly more advanced now. I am sure the vaccine is coming, and this calamity we are facing right now will significantly die down within the second quarter of this year. 

I guess the primary reason why the virus is spreading very fast is that people are hard-headed. People lack the urgency. People underestimated this virus early on. We are now caught in the middle of this by surprise and finally begun to realize how grave this goes only when the situation is already growing worse.

I agree with the first half of that definitely. Gone are the days where if one member of the family got sick the rest of the family got sick too.
I have travelled from one densely populated area to another over the past week (I S.I.d in the first place for about 2 weeks before moving as to not transport the virus and generally live a life social distancing anyway). But both places seemed to be taking the virus pretty seriously and both were fairly empty. Even police have moved away from the area too in order to assist with other tasks.

[sunsilk]

Difficult to determine, the most affected district in China is open again. Now, the world is waiting for them to come and give the vaccine, antidote and any help that will solve this crisis quickly.

Not sure how many people are going to trust a vaccine imported from China. Other drugs are different because you can do chemical tests to determine what they contain but I think vaccines are a little different. There's still a chance also that Europe will come up with some sort of vaccine before the end of this... (I'm not versed in licensing laws they may have to trial it in every customs area).

Valid points.

But some countries that are near to China might not think twice in these times. They'll desperately want to get rid of it and if it's the actual vaccine that helped them to overcome the virus, they might give it a try.

I've heard about Russia and Australia too experimenting for the possible vaccine.

[LazerSMS]

By Autumn imo when it comes to the health crisis while the economic impact will be long lasting