How long this crisis will be?

[bithisach]

For the people in this community that understand spanish, I wanted to share this video I created yesterday comparing the current situation with the different crisis we had in the last 100 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rs5Yyvih14M&list=PLz_NVO61eqw70kA4Z9z854OoyibpDpOuq&index=2

Do you think it will be uglier than the others?
 
All feedback is welcome to keep improving!:)

It's going to take about a year as some experts have indicated, this is not the greatest source but mentions end of 2020 as tentative end of the worst: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/03/10/covid-19-likely-to-last-till-end-2020-at-least-say-singapore-experts

[CHENIEN]

If all people are willing to coordinate the policy if what to do or not to do, the propagation of coronavirus will be last as early, because even if you are the strongest man in the world you cannot revoke your life when times come that you are infected to covid-19 unless if there's a perfect medicine or miracle, so we are going to stay at home to defends our life and to avoid place inside the casket, despite all this economic crisis I think it is very unpredictable and some traders are said that few of investors who have been implicated in coronavirus death which is the first reason of unexpected downtrend.

[rambogoham1]

Apparently in China it's already over. Their stock market is back to normal levels and they are doing just fine haha. In the U.S. and most European countries I suspect another 3-6 months. And a few more waves of it to spread throughout. Over a year before normal because unemployment claims this last week for the U.S. was 3 million. Four times higher than the peak for that country in the 2008/2009 recession.

[OrangeII]

It would really take a while if you look at how things are unfolding especially how things seem to get worst for some countries. Italy has now overtaken over the rank as it has now recorded the country with the highest death.  Things are also not looking too good with the US and I fear it could get worst in the next month. Let's pray they find a remedy to this disease as soon as possible.

yes, I also hope that this disease can be resolved soon. I read some news about the cure for this disease, it's just that there is still no cure for this virus to develop. Well, we do not know how long this crisis will occur, but if this continues, it will further aggravate the price of all types of investment.

[figmentofmyass]

3-6 months is an impossible time frame for creating such vaccine.The process takes more than one year.

Well, if they push through clinical trials and find enough willing volunteers, it's possible to cut that time down. There's a lot of political will behind this kind of thing.

the consensus among virologists seems to be 18 months minimum. that's the best case scenario which "assumes there will be no hitches". https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-vaccine-when-will-it-be-ready

our best hope is antiviral treatments. those can be pushed to market 5-10x faster.

The last flu pandemic in the 1950s led to the economy taking a sharp hit -- but the recovery was just as drastic. I am reminded though that this pandemic isn't the sole reason for this current downturn!

isn't it? there may have been signs of a slowdown on the horizon, but nobody could have predicted this instant double digit GDP drop and mass joblessness. this was a black swan if there ever was one.

[Negotiation]

Most likely the crisis will end around the end of 2020. People will be forced to rebuild their entire social life and work until a vaccine is developed. Again, it all depends on the government, there should be support from citizens and businesses.

Even if it depends on the government the crisis will not last long because people will never be in lockdown for so long. I don't think the virus can be controlled right now No drugs have been discovered so far As the days go by the number is increasing.

[Assface16678]

Most likely the crisis will end around the end of 2020. People will be forced to rebuild their entire social life and work until a vaccine is developed. Again, it all depends on the government, there should be support from citizens and businesses.

Thats too long prediction if its true that it takes that long then almost 1/4 of the population may be experience to be infected that time.

My expectation is it will only take 3-6 month before that crisis will resolve and reduce the infected daily by that time hopefully. But we cant guess it right for now we can only do is watch and stay at home ,always  secured your self and family by jsut simple staying at your home so every one can be safe.

Still, there is a lot of problem into the worldwide economy and one of the best solution for this to hold the people into their houses with the use of home quarantine and we cannot tell this until when because even it is already a month the virus is continuously spreading but still we are looking forward to the cure and there are a lot of fronts and back liners from the army, doctor and other fields that is helping each other to make faster to create the vaccine and cure the people one of the good things to do is follow the authority.

[Pffrt]

I don't think we will see it soon to be stopped. The outbreak is getting wider everyday with new records and crisis around the world is increasing which is heavily going to affect the economy in the long run. I don't have much data on previous pandemic though but still, the way it's getting stronger, it seems to be lasted for a while.

[Yatsan]

I don't think we will see it soon to be stopped. The outbreak is getting wider everyday with new records and crisis around the world is increasing which is heavily going to affect the economy in the long run. I don't have much data on previous pandemic though but still, the way it's getting stronger, it seems to be lasted for a while.

It will end if our scientist and doctors discover the cure for the virus. Yes, it might take a while some research says it will take a 1-5 years to develop a vaccine based on other pandemics which occurs on the past but, I hope as soon as possible it will be cured. This virus is damaging our economy country by country, so if it will take a year, I think some country economies will collapse. It's 21st century let's hope for the best for our doctors and scientist.

[shoreno]

I don't think we will see it soon to be stopped. The outbreak is getting wider everyday with new records and crisis around the world is increasing which is heavily going to affect the economy in the long run. I don't have much data on previous pandemic though but still, the way it's getting stronger, it seems to be lasted for a while.

there are many data's available on the net with a simple search  . by there we can see that italy has the number of the highest deaths so far , they  even surpass china and china is now not getting any new cases which is a good news  .

 if china can make it possible to defeat the virus then why cant others  ? but that is because china was one of the country that is inoovative and strict so people cant do anything but to follow what have been instructed to them , dunno on itally maybe they arent , as thats what the covid data says   .

[onrise]

It would really take a while if you look at how things are unfolding especially how things seem to get worst for some countries. Italy has now overtaken over the rank as it has now recorded the country with the highest death.  Things are also not looking too good with the US and I fear it could get worst in the next month. Let's pray they find a remedy to this disease as soon as possible.

We all wish that this gets to end as soon as possible, and vaccine gets found quickly so that people can recover as well. Also the way it is getting spread in the world and US this days it is very scary and also another thing is that is it any specific country that has purposely spread this virus in order to hit the economy of the world and to reduce the population in the world is another question that arises now.

[fiulpro]

Take 18 Months minimum for the approval and distribution of a vaccine .

Then take further 1 year for things to be normal , way way normal like they were before , when you could roam around without any problems

It is not stopping in few months for sure . Technically then also people who are infected will need time to recover again, this is highly infectious and people can be reinfected is the problem.

[iv4n]

Take 18 Months minimum for the approval and distribution of a vaccine .

Then take further 1 year for things to be normal , way way normal like they were before , when you could roam around without any problems

It is not stopping in few months for sure . Technically then also people who are infected will need time to recover again, this is highly infectious and people can be reinfected is the problem.

It's just a part with a vaccine for this virus now, who can guarantee there will not be some new virus in near future? Probably nobody!
We are in dark, many people don't realize that. Of course there are news everywhere around, a good deal of news and theories, but nobody knows what really happened, is it some virus from nature, or someone made that virus, and what the fuck governments do with closing everything and printing money for bailing out big companies again. I agree with you, we will not see the end of this storm any time soon, it will just change a shape, that's it. Now everything and everyone is focused on a virus, tomorrow it will be economy, and the day after tomorrow we will see some new big war or some new and more dangerous virus... and of course we will have a good deal of news with new theories again, but nobody will know what is the truth!
For this, and many other reasons, we need transparency, total transparency! And only thing that can give us that on a global stage is blockchain.

[buwaytress]

the consensus among virologists seems to be 18 months minimum. that's the best case scenario which "assumes there will be no hitches". https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-vaccine-when-will-it-be-ready

our best hope is antiviral treatments. those can be pushed to market 5-10x faster.

And that people stop being irrational, which is probably never going to happen. In my neighbouring country, the most new cases found yesterday why? Because idiots took home a last flight out of the UK. So they probably infected the entire plane and transit along the way too. Worst is, that country is chartering more flights to take people home. These aren't tourists, by the way, actual residents in the UK and elsewhere in Europe.

isn't it? there may have been signs of a slowdown on the horizon, but nobody could have predicted this instant double digit GDP drop and mass joblessness. this was a black swan if there ever was one.

It's not the sole reason, how can it be? It's a convergence of many factors. In Europe GDP was already negative in Germany long before covid, as were the negative interest rates. The economy has been slowing down for a long, long time. In 2018 already Bank of England warned it was coming, along with ECB, and the signs became clearer in 2019. Same with Trump era "not QE" QE moves.

This was another straw, but the camel's back was already broken. Stay safe, brother.

[Lucius]

Actually I think spreading the pandemic in the UK isn't the worst idea...

I know your opinion because you have repeated it several times over the last month, but given what is currently happening in Italy and Spain, what you and your government are thinking is completely crazy. While most of the world is fighting to control the infection, you would infect the entire UK population and get a score of 5-10% of those infected dead. UK's population is close to 68 millions, so you still think 3.4 million (5%) deaths sounds good?

We have slightly more beds than Italy but we don't yet have more ventilators.

According to the information I found, UK is have around 4000 beds for patients with respiratory problems, Italy has about 5000 of them, and Germany is have 25 000 such beds. Given your state of mind and completely illogical thinking about how to approach this problem, I do not see how the UK can avoid what is currently happening in most European countries that have taken extreme measures not seen since World War II.

The US and UK both have weaknesses in their healthcare systems which could trigger a collapse if the two countries experience the kind of severe coronavirus outbreak similar to Italy, a Financial Times analysis has found.
Both countries have fewer hospital beds per capita than most other western nations, the analysis shows. While the US and UK have about 2 beds per 1,000 people, Germany, by comparison has 6, while Japan has 7.8, according to the OECD.

[xvids]

Nobody knows how long will this crisis be.
Even if we find a cure now it would take time before it slows down or even heal the infected countries.
So we couldn't tell how long would it takes for us to completely go back to normal again.

[Smitty Werben Man Jensen]

of course this crisis will continue if the world is not yet recovered, the corona virus has a huge negative impact on all countries, if the country and the world do not take this pandemic seriously we don't know this crisis will end!

[betty11]

It seems there is more to this coronaVirus, than just the plague itself, the media never got off their report about it, and all government are shutting down, nations are locking down and humans are dying daily in thousands and the virus has no respect for personalities. Maybe this was designed to gain some economic power and change our world economic equation. I am in my room watching the world.

[exstasie]

Hopefully the gov will just decide its more worthwhile to infect everyone determined healthy for 2 or 3 weeks and wait for them to recover and have enforced mass immunity of we can't get a vaccine fast enough...

Scary proposition given the long recovery timelines and hospitalization needs.

I see that the vast majority of UK people still share the view of their prime minister and government that it is better to let people get infected and gain immunity, but if we look at the example of Italy where mortality is more than 8%, the UK would with even less hospital capacity with this way of defense against the virus had several million casualties.

The government and PM have backtracked from that opinion because of the spike in hospitalizations. Boris Johnson has contracted COVID-19 and is now promoting the mantra of "Stay at home and save lives #StayHomeSaveLives."

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200

I still strongly believe such mortality rates will be drastically reduced after widespread antibody testing. All testing is currently being aimed at symptomatic cases, which means mild and asymptomatic cases are very much not being counted in estimated mortality rates.

Where I live, you can't even get tested if you have very obvious corona virus symptoms, so none of those people are being counted as "confirmed cases." Only high risk and severe (hospitalization required) cases are receiving tests. Those people are much more likely to die.

[Lucius]

The government and PM have backtracked from that opinion because of the spike in hospitalizations. Boris Johnson has contracted COVID-19 and is now promoting the mantra of "Stay at home and save lives #StayHomeSaveLives."

I know he changed his mind, maybe after he became infected or after realizing that his strategy didn't make sense. The only question is whether this decision was made too late, because the virus has spread quite freely for a long time and there is no doubt that a large number of people are infected.

I just check today's data for UK, and even though they only have 17,000+ infected, total deaths is 1019 which is a really big number when compared to Germany (58 000 infected/455 total deaths) or USA (123 000 infected/2229 total deaths). If the first line of defense (doctors and medical staff) get infected, it is game over - Italy is an obvious example of this scenario.