returning to normal

[figmentofmyass]

there's a new narrative emerging that life will never return to normal after the coronavirus pandemic:

I don't think people realize that there is no normal to go back to anymore.

At absolute minimum:

1) Supply & demand has been reallocated across the economy, with travel & events zero'd out, remote work & masks to infinity
2) Virus permanently changes public behavior
3) Supply chain disruption just starting

Even if the virus did vanish in a puff of smoke and everyone went "back to work", the behavior of billions of people and every country has been permanently changed.

Demand won't quickly come back, borders won't easily reopen, international relations won't be the same.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1246151098986983424

Which industries will die off first because of pandemic?

The obvious one for me is the movie theaters but what else?

https://twitter.com/needacoin/status/1246191483746574337

what do you think---are entire industries about to disappear because of the pandemic? will some aspects of the economy and general life irreversibly change after this?

or are these people just drama queens who are blowing everything out of proportion? maybe people will forget all about the coronavirus in a couple years time and nothing will change. that's what happened after the H1N1 scare.

[1714813973]

1714813973

[Magkirap]

Yes it surely have changed our behavior and ways of how we do things, relationship of countries are surely affected and the life were gonna live after this pandemic will be far different from the life we live before this but in a positive way like government should provide more care to our health workers and give more funds to health because this is every sibgle countries weakness. People will stock more often than they usually do because of what happened but i see it in a positive way. I don't think movie theaters will die first or even just die, people will appreciate the things they do after this pandemic ends so watching movies will not die for most of us loves going into cinemas. Things will get back to normal but people will be more careful of their health and hygene.

[TheUltraElite]

Every bad time comes to an end. This one will also follow the same route. The bad thing is that the world economy has and will be suffering for the rest of this year to come. I dont think bitcoin will be doing anything good this year and we can expect it to remain bearish for longer period of time.

The third world countries like always will have a devastating effect on their economy and they will take a lot of time to cope up with the situation. The important thing in such times to to learn how to keep a sane mind and not go off the track or take the law in your own hands.

[nosferzd]

As for disappearing or not, it is difficult to understand at the moment, but the fact that many areas of business are in complete decline and in order to function normally they will need 1-2 years after the crisis is understandable today. The commercial real estate sector has been particularly affected, many are moving to the cheapest offices, and various furniture, clothing and footwear manufacturing will be in great decline. Indeed, at the given moment their profit is close to zero, everyone is worried about survival in the covid-19 environment, so there will simply be no orders for production.

[Darker45]

what do you think---are entire industries about to disappear because of the pandemic? will some aspects of the economy and general life irreversibly change after this?

or are these people just drama queens who are blowing everything out of proportion? maybe people will forget all about the coronavirus in a couple years time and nothing will change. that's what happened after the H1N1 scare.

We are in the middle of this right now. I guess it is very normal for people to begin to think of things according to the current environment of fear, anxiety, and even panic. The pervading atmosphere of today is one characterized by worry and gloom. We are isolated from close friends and families. Traveling is dead. Sports matches are nowhere to be found on our favorite channels. We cannot go to our favorite coffee shops and bard. The news are all revolving around the crisis. This is our world today. It is full of emotion, and we are at the moment of complete absorption of what is happening around.

However, I tend to believe that once this ends fully, it will only take a year at most before the worries are all gone and everything's back to normal, for the ordinary people at least. But perhaps it will never be the same to the people up there who create plans for the country, formulate national outlook vis-a-vis the global vulnerabilities, analyze possible defenses against incoming similar large-scale crises and pandemics, and the like. Lessons must be learned.

[Meowth05]

Think about the time of Spanish Flu, did anything change? No, because the industries are revived, the reason why some industry die in times of pandemics is just a coincidence, the real reason is becoming obsolete and the fast and ever changing technological development.

[dothebeats]

Yes, the sense of normalcy prior to the pandemic wouldn't return seeing how it psychologically affected all of us. From a personal perspective, I can see that most companies would now shift to work-from-home setups since they will know that it is more efficient, costs more for maintenance and minimize the risks for widespread transmission of disease should there ever be one after this (I'm pretty sure there are many more.) On the large-scale economic scene, supply chains will be, well, supply chains still and would even ramp up production to keep up with delays in supplies. There wouldn't be much effect to the manufacturing industries, they're there to produce goods that can work with little manpower (automated supply chains, that is).

As for the government's general notion towards infectious diseases, perhaps they will be more cautious and actually invest in science for the first time. Interest in pharmaceutical companies would rise, giving them more power in the economy than what they had prior to all of this mess.

[naaimmd]

there's a new narrative emerging that life will never return to normal after the coronavirus pandemic:

I don't think people realize that there is no normal to go back to anymore.

At absolute minimum:

1) Supply & demand has been reallocated across the economy, with travel & events zero'd out, remote work & masks to infinity
2) Virus permanently changes public behavior
3) Supply chain disruption just starting

Even if the virus did vanish in a puff of smoke and everyone went "back to work", the behavior of billions of people and every country has been permanently changed.

Demand won't quickly come back, borders won't easily reopen, international relations won't be the same.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1246151098986983424

Which industries will die off first because of pandemic?

The obvious one for me is the movie theaters but what else?

https://twitter.com/needacoin/status/1246191483746574337

what do you think---are entire industries about to disappear because of the pandemic? will some aspects of the economy and general life irreversibly change after this?

or are these people just drama queens who are blowing everything out of proportion? maybe people will forget all about the coronavirus in a couple years time and nothing will change. that's what happened after the H1N1 scare.

with time people will forget about coronavirus and they will act like before because in 20 centuries we saw many viruses and we forgot it in no time so I don't think this will be different. although some people might lose job and some industries might stop working but some will replace those so its same cycle.

[malevolent]

what do you think---are entire industries about to disappear because of the pandemic? will some aspects of the economy and general life irreversibly change after this?

or are these people just drama queens who are blowing everything out of proportion? maybe people will forget all about the coronavirus in a couple years time and nothing will change. that's what happened after the H1N1 scare.

It all depends on how long this pandemic is going to last. If it subsides by summer and the 2nd wave in autumn/winter isn't as deadly things should mostly return to normal by next year at the latest. But if it continues to be as easily transmissible and as deadly as many are projecting, things won't start returning to normal until vaccines or better meds arrive (or until enough people get infected and die).

[davis196]

1) Supply & demand has been reallocated across the economy, with travel & events zero'd out, remote work & masks to infinity
2) Virus permanently changes public behavior
3) Supply chain disruption just starting

Even if the virus did vanish in a puff of smoke and everyone went "back to work", the behavior of billions of people and every country has been permanently changed.

1.Supply& demand reallocation has pros and cons.More countries will produce their goods,instead of relying on import.
2.I doubt that the virus will change public behavior permantently.Anyway,it's not painful or dangerous to just wash your hands everyday and keep social distance. 
3.Supply chain disruption is a bad thing,but it's only a short term problem,the economy can and will adapt in the long term.

[stompix]

what do you think---are entire industries about to disappear because of the pandemic? will some aspects of the economy and general life irreversibly change after this?

Disappear? I can't think of even a single one who would do!
The most affected would be coffee shops, restaurants, hotels, but this will be temporary, they have survived through larger pandemics than this.
What others? Hair salons? I imagine my wife doing her long hair by herself...two or three tries and we would file for divorce.

Yeah, some will be hit, especially shops that sell stuff that can be bought online, but even during these times I still won't be ordering meat or fruits from a superstore, there are things I must see myself before buying. Same with shoes or clothes,  I never bought them online and I will never do it.

or are these people just drama queens who are blowing everything out of proportion? maybe people will forget all about the coronavirus in a couple years time and nothing will change. that's what happened after the H1N1 scare.

Blowing out of proportion..maybe, for us that are not affected.
For those that have lost one or more, it the other way around.
If you look just at numbers, yeah, we've seen worse, but numbers and statistics don't apply to family.

As for forgetting, till now we don't have a clue if we can really get rid of it, so maybe we will have to deal it every year.

[fiulpro]

There have been pandemics around the world and one should understand that this is not even the worst.
When we were able to flourish at a time like that this time too , it won't be a problem , we should understand that the government is trying to control it in a way better way than we can presume , in the previous years it was all a havoc .
I do think the markets and the companies , the industries , everything will be back to normal , soon enough.
It might take a while ofcourse but we cannot blame that.
Don't worry about these kind of things , we are lucky to be born in this era and see way less what our ancestors saw.

[NavI_027]

maybe people will forget all about the coronavirus in a couple years time and nothing will change. that's what happened after the H1N1 scare.

For couple of years? Yeah maybe. But one thing is for sure, for the next few months after the outbreak most of the people will increase their health awareness. I'm sure that alcohols and masks will be still lack of stock, yeah it sounds overreacting but I don't see anything wrong about it. Prevention is always better than cure just like the old saying . However, I don't want to see a world where everyone put some alcohol in their hands everytime they finish an activity either because having an OCD is abnormal already .

[exstasie]

There have been pandemics around the world and one should understand that this is not even the worst.

Definitely not the deadliest we've seen but there are some unique considerations. COVID-19 seems to have an extremely long shedding period and is significantly more contagious than things like influenza. When combined with the long hospitalization times (up to a month in severe cases) this is all extremely taxing on the healthcare system.

With that in mind, and given there is no vaccine in sight, I have to think the entertainment, tourism, and travel industries are going to be hit hard for the foreseeable future. Berkshire Hathaway just dumped its airline stocks, they aren't even trying to wait for a bounce. The outlook is brutal right now for bar and restaurant owners.

Something I've been curious about is this new class of Airbnb mortgagees who has been riding the bull for the past decade. Airbnb demand should take a big hit. I wonder if that will have spillover effects on the real estate market.

[figmentofmyass]

another area to consider: privacy. although google says they aren't giving authorities personally identifiable information, this is a scary look at things to come: Google to publish user location data to help govts tackle virus

also, authoritarian tactics may become increasingly normalized. across the USA, cities/counties are starting to detain people who refuse to self-isolate, or make them wear tracking devices.
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/2020/03/31/louisville-circuit-court-ankle-bracelets-noncompliant-coronavirus-patients/5094594002/
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-man-breaks-hawaii-coronavirus-quarantine-arrested-kauai-police-1495672

the justice department is also quietly pushing for the power to detain people indefinitely without trial. https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20200323/13383044153/doj-says-coronavirus-emergency-justifies-indefinite-detention-arrested-people.shtml

this reminds me a lot of the post-9/11 era......

[Viscore]

I believe the effect will never be permanent, the world will be able to be back to normal although it will take time.
Maybe things would happen if there is no vaccine that will be found, but when its found and corona virus will just be like a simple fever, people will not be afraid of going out and still doing their usual business, same with the movie theater industry, when there's a cure, they'll be back booming again.

[kotajikikox]

Think about the time of Spanish Flu, did anything change? No, because the industries are revived, the reason why some industry die in times of pandemics is just a coincidence, the real reason is becoming obsolete and the fast and ever changing technological development.

i don't think everything is coincidence because some stands even in pandemics while others did not come stronger because of week foundations.

industries must be care enough for their people and product and should be ready in times like this because if Pandemics can bring them down so what more if bigger calamities happen?


but regarding about returning to Normal?i believe that sooner as the Virus is now being threaten seriously by the world?we will not have to wait longer before the market stars showing growth again.

[o_e_l_e_o]

this reminds me a lot of the post-9/11 era......

Never let a good crisis go to waste. Some of the demands that governments are issuing to various tech companies in the midst of all this, and some of new powers that governments are giving themselves, are positively draconian. Mobile phone companies handing over your location data to the government so your movements can be tracked (article translated from French), fitness apps being used to track your location and data use (article), the EARN IT Act trying to be quietly pushed through in the chaos, plus all the measures you linked to regarding governments essentially giving them the power to detain people without trial.

It might take a while, but this infection will be brought under control and the pandemic will end. I have grave concerns that all these new privacy invading powers will not end, be reversed, or even scaled back after the pandemic ends. In fact, I suspect the opposite - "If only we had the power to track people before the pandemic hit! Think of all the lives we could have saved! As such, the government will permanently monitor your movements. Think of the children!"

[20kevin20]

I keep repeating this idea: it takes less than a month to form a new habit. Kids who are being raised right now are going to believe this is the new normal. Expect a lot of introverts, expect a lot of social awkwardness once this entire thing ends. It's gonna take a long time to get back to normal... if we ever will again.

Industries will not disappear. They'll go right under the wings of our world's largest corporations. Expect the largest ones to start expanding their domains and to cover all our needs. Amazon is one of them. We are already giving them most of our money: Netflix, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Google etc. Even if you're not giving Google for example money directly, you're indirectly giving them free bucks by letting them collect your personal data. Same goes to Amazon Alexa, Google Home and everything else.

I just hate the path we're heading to.

[Latviand]

what do you think---are entire industries about to disappear because of the pandemic? will some aspects of the economy and general life irreversibly change after this?

or are these people just drama queens who are blowing everything out of proportion? maybe people will forget all about the coronavirus in a couple years time and nothing will change. that's what happened after the H1N1 scare.

We are in the middle of this right now. I guess it is very normal for people to begin to think of things according to the current environment of fear, anxiety, and even panic. The pervading atmosphere of today is one characterized by worry and gloom. We are isolated from close friends and families. Traveling is dead. Sports matches are nowhere to be found on our favorite channels. We cannot go to our favorite coffee shops and bard. The news are all revolving around the crisis. This is our world today. It is full of emotion, and we are at the moment of complete absorption of what is happening around.

However, I tend to believe that once this ends fully, it will only take a year at most before the worries are all gone and everything's back to normal, for the ordinary people at least. But perhaps it will never be the same to the people up there who create plans for the country, formulate national outlook vis-a-vis the global vulnerabilities, analyze possible defenses against incoming similar large-scale crises and pandemics, and the like. Lessons must be learned.

I don't think that after this crisis, everything will go back to its normal state because somehow this pandemic really affected some of aspects in our community. Most especially our economy, as the market goes down, it is more likely that our stock market will have a hard time recovering to the damage that this Covid-19 brought to us. It will never be the same to those people who lost the lives of their loved ones, to those people who have no money to spend as the government also lacks of plan during this crisis. We just really need to reflect and realize what this pandemic taught us, the reality will slapped all of us and we will realized that and found out if the government that we have is really deserving to that kind of position, or if they are responsible enough during the crisis.